支撐中國出口熱潮的隱藏政策（2/2）

The Hidden Policies That Power China’s Export Boom (2/2)

Huge tax breaks and a weak currency sustain exports, widen the government budget deficit and complicate the country’s efforts to rebalance its economy.

The NYT - By Keith Bradsher, Ruoxin Zhang contributed research.

Oct. 6, 2026, 12:00 a.m. ET

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Beijing has been cautious about allowing meaningful appreciation. Policymakers are well aware of Europe’s unhappiness, but remain wary that a rapid rise in the renminbi would slow the country’s vast export machine.

The same caution applies to export tax rebates. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, they consumed about a tenth of tax revenue. Now, as exports surge while much of the domestic economy stagnates, they account for nearly one-eighth.

China has announced plans to halt tax rebates for battery exporters next year. Some influential economists are urging the government to go much further.

“Export tax rebates, which are essentially a form of export subsidy, should be reduced,” said Huang Qifan, a former mayor of Chongqing and an influential Chinese economist, in a speech in May.

The reasons for Beijing’s reluctance to jeopardize exports can be seen in Guangzhou, a metropolis in southern China’s Pearl River Delta and the heart of China’s garment export industry.

On Haizhu Island, dozens of men and women loitered at an outdoor hiring area late one afternoon after waiting hours for anyone willing to pay them $45 to $60 for a day of sewing.

“Business has slowed down — the first half of the year was a little better, but things are really bad now,” said a worker at the hiring area who gave only his family name, Liu.

China’s housing crash has crippled domestic demand for new clothes, while tariffs and competition from lower-wage countries have hurt exports. Day labor rates occasionally reached as high as $150 a few years ago, when exports and domestic demand were much stronger, said the owner of a sewing machine distributorship whose family name is Yi.

“Compared with previous years, our business is down by at least a third this year — you could even say it’s close to half,” he said.

Such weakness helps explain why Beijing is reluctant to risk policies that could further undermine exports. Until 2022, the currency gradually strengthened in inflation-adjusted terms for many years, according to the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, which has tracked the renminbi’s weakness.

That changed after a stringent Covid lockdown began in Shanghai in March 2022. Consumer confidence plunged to the lowest level in 36 years of government record-keeping, while companies and households sought to move savings out of China. The renminbi started a long decline that eventually took it down about 20 percent.

The slide coincided with the collapse of China’s housing market. Prices for existing homes have fallen about 40 percent since the summer of 2021, eroding household savings and further weakening consumer spending.

The renminbi has strengthened somewhat over the past 15 months, but it remains far below pre-Covid levels after adjusting for inflation.

Currency movements can take time to alter decisions companies make about where they buy components and other supplies. American importers tend not to look for new suppliers unless a currency moves sharply against the dollar, said Joe Jurken, the managing director of ABC Group, a Milwaukee-based supply chain consultancy.

“A 15 percent appreciation would open up eyes and start some discussions,” he said.

A weak currency is not the only reason for China’s export strength. Chinese companies have become formidable competitors through innovation in sectors such as batteries, electric vehicles and solar panels. Fierce domestic competition has also pushed manufacturers to cut costs and prices.

But some economists argue that those low prices also reflect weaknesses in the domestic economy, including pressure on wages and corporate profits.

“The high quality and low price of Chinese goods is a global triumph, but it is built on the suppressed wages and squeezed margins of Chinese workers and enterprises,” wrote Zhao Jian, the founding dean of the Xijing Research Institute, a commercial research foundation, in a commentary on Sept. 22 in Caixin, a Chinese business publication.

Bert Hofman, a former China country director for the World Bank, said reducing tax rebates might have a bigger impact than allowing the renminbi to appreciate in terms of freeing up government revenue for domestic priorities.

“China benefits by increasing revenues, which they can use to increase government spending on health and education,” he said.

Translation

支撐中國出口熱潮的隱藏政策（2/2）

巨額稅收優惠和疲軟的人民幣支撐著出口，擴大了政府預算赤字，並使中國經濟再平衡的努力更加複雜

（繼續）

北京一直對人民幣大幅升值持謹慎態度。政策制定者深知歐洲的不滿，但仍擔心人民幣快速升值會減緩中國龐大的出口體系。

同樣的謹慎也適用於出口退稅。在新冠疫情爆發前，出口退稅約佔稅收收入的十分之一。如今，隨著出口激增而國內經濟大部分停滯不前，出口退稅佔接近八分之一。

中國已宣佈計劃明年停止對電池出口商的退稅。一些有影響力的經濟學家敦促政府採取更進一步的措施。

重慶前市長、中國著名經濟學家Huang Qifan在五月份的一次演講中表示：“出口退稅本質上是一種出口補貼，應該減少。”

北京不願讓出口受阻的原因，在廣州 - 一座位於中國南方珠江三角洲的大都市，也是中國服裝出口產業的中心 - 可見一斑。

在海珠島，有一天下午，幾十名男女在露天招工場外徘徊，他們已經等了好幾個小時，希望能找到一份縫紉工作，報酬是每天45到60美元。

在招工場一位只透露自己姓Liu的工人說道:「生意下滑了 - 上半年稍微好一些，但現在情況很糟糕」。

中國的房地產市場崩盤嚴重打擊了國內對新衣的需求，而關稅和低工資國家的競爭也損害了出口。一位姓Yi的縫紉機經銷店老闆說，幾年前，當出口和內需都十分強勁時，日工工資偶爾能達到150美元。

他說:「與往年相比，我們今年的生意至少下滑了三分之一，甚至可以說接近一半」。

這種疲軟態勢有助於解釋北京為何不願冒險推行可能進一步削弱出口的政策。根據位於瑞士巴塞爾的國際清算銀行（該行一直追蹤人民幣的疲軟走勢）的數據顯示，在2022年之前，人民幣經通膨調整後多年來持續走強。

但這種情況在2022年3月上海開始實施嚴格的疫情封鎖後發生了變化。消費者信心跌至政府有記錄36年來的最低水平，企業和家庭紛紛將儲蓄轉移出境。人民幣開始長期下跌，最終跌幅達約20%。

人民幣的暴跌恰逢中國房地產市場崩盤。自2021年夏季以來，現有房屋價格已下跌約40%，侵蝕了家庭儲蓄，並進一步削弱了消費支出。

過去15個月人民幣匯率回升，但經通膨調整後，仍遠低於新冠疫情前的水準。

匯率波動需要一段時間才能影響企業在零件和其他供應品採購的決策。總部位於Milwaukee的供應鏈諮詢公司ABC集團董事總經理Joe Jurken表示，除非某種貨幣對美元匯率大幅波動，否則美國進口商通常不會尋找新的供應商。

他說:「15%的升值幅度會引起關注，並引發一些討論」。

人民幣疲軟並非中國出口強勁的唯一原因。中國企業透過在電池、電動車和太陽能板等領域的創新，已成為強大的競爭對手。激烈的中國國內競爭也促使製造商降低成本和價格。

但一些經濟學家認為，這些低價也反映了國內經濟的疲軟，包括薪資和企業利潤面臨的壓力。

西京研究院創始院長Zhao Jian 9月22日在財新網發表評論文章稱：“中國商品的高品質和低價格在全球範圍內取得了巨大成功，但這卻是建立在壓低中國工人和企業工資、壓縮利潤的基礎之上的。”

世界銀行前中國區主任Bert Hofman表示，減少稅收優惠可能比人民幣升值更能有效釋放政府財政收入，用於國內優先事項。

他指出：“中國可以透過增加財政收入獲益，並將這些收入用於增加政府在醫療和教育方面的支出。”

So, China has kept its export engine roaring with a combination of tax refund and a weak currency, helping sustain economic growth at home while sending a surge of Chinese goods into markets abroad. But that strategy is fueling tension with its trading partners. Europe’s leaders say China tilts the scale with government subsidies and low-interest loans to its manufacturers, flooding European markets with inexpensive goods. While the high quality and low price of Chinese goods is a global triumph, apparently, it is built on the suppressed wages and squeezed margins of Chinese workers and enterprises.