中國迅速介入，接替被特朗普取消的美國國際開發署亞洲援助計劃 (2/2)

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China Swoops In to Replace Asian USAID Efforts Axed by Trump (2/2)

Bloomberg - Iain Marlow and Philip J. Heijmans

Wed, March 26, 2025 at 7:22 a.m. PDT·6 min read

(continue)

‘Diplomatic Gift’

“It’s a diplomatic gift” to China, said Charles Kenny, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development. “In every country where there’s a serious USAID cut, if they put a small amount of money into a health and education project and say, ‘Look, we’re ramping up,’ that does seem to be a bit of a publicity gift for them. And I’m sure they’re smart enough to take it.”

Since the Trump administration moved to shut down USAID, terminate most of its foreign aid contracts, and furlough or place on leave most of its employees, US lawmakers, development experts and national security professionals have highlighted the geopolitical risks of curtailing US foreign aid in the developing world.

Many of those lawmakers and experts have warned that China could move in, gaining further influence over developing nations after wooing officials in Africa, Asia and South America for years with tens of billions in loans focused mostly on infrastructure through Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.

And it certainly has. China already announced funding for a Cambodian de-mining initiative that was dropped, and later restored, by the US. In mid-March, Beijing also announced an early childhood development project in Rwanda, where USAID recently curtailed contracts. And Chinese officials have reportedly offered to make up for funding gaps in Nepal, nestled between India and China.

Will Parks, the Cambodia representative for the United Nations Children’s Fund, said in a statement that the organization and Cambodia signed a partnership with China in 2024, based on a proposal from 2022. It was launched earlier this month and “complements” funding from other nations, Parks said.

“Cambodia has made tremendous progress for children over the past decade,” he said. “But further reductions of aid budgets could jeopardize these hard-won achievements.”

Cambodia’s government was explicit about drawing a link.

“The Cambodian government works with many partners, and we never rely on any one partner exclusively,” government spokesman Pen Bona said via text message in response to questions. “So if one partner withdraws support, we seek to find another partner to replace it.”

China “will continue to provide assistance to economic and social development” in Cambodia “under the framework of South-South cooperation,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

“China’s aid policy remains consistent and clear,” the Foreign Ministry continued. “China’s principles of non-interference, not attaching any political strings, not giving empty promises remain unchanged.”

In a closed-door hearing on Capitol Hill this month, Trump appointee Pete Marocco, who led the assault on USAID, was asked about the Cambodia projects and the timing of China’s swift announcement, according to one person familiar with the session. Marocco brushed off concerns about China increasing its influence, this person said.

Marocco didn’t respond to a request for comment.

While members of the Trump administration have said the canceled projects brought no benefits to Americans, Diana Putman, who retired as USAID’s acting assistant administrator for Africa, said the agency’s billions in foreign assistance helped give US ambassadors a crucial advantage.

“Their leverage and ability to make a difference in terms of foreign policy in that country is backed up by the money that they bring, and in the Global South that money is primarily the money that USAID has,” Putman said.

And while China may exploit the US withdrawal of aid funding from important markets, Beijing “will not step in” to replace crucial global health spending in less strategic countries that are at the greatest risk from disease, Council on Foreign Relations experts Thomas Bollyky and Yanzhong Huang wrote in Foreign Affairs this week.

“I would hope it doesn’t get completely lost in the story of the diplomacy that actual people are going to die as a result of this,” said Kenny of the Center for Global Development. “And that’s sad.”

Translation

中國迅速介入，接替被特朗普取消的美國國際開發署亞洲援助計劃 (2/2)

（繼續）

“外交禮物”

全球發展中心高級研究員Charles Kenny 說： “這是給中國的一份外交禮物”; “在每個受美國國際開發署大幅削減撥款的國家，如果中國將少量資金投入其衛生和教育項目並說: ‘看，我們正在加大力度’，這對中國來說似乎是一種宣傳禮物。我相信中國會足夠聰明去接受它。”

自從特朗普政府關閉美國國際開發署、終止大部分外援合約並讓大部分員工休假以來，美國立法者、發展專家和國家安全專家一直在強調削減美國對發展中國家外援的地緣政治風險。

許多議員和專家警告稱，中國多年來透過「一帶一路」倡議向非洲、亞洲和南美洲的官員提供數百億美元貸款（主要集中在基礎設施建設），以此吸引這些國家的官員，從而可能進一步進入這些國家，對發展中國家產生更大的影響力。

事實也確實如此。中國先前已宣布資助柬埔寨的掃雷計劃，該計劃曾被美國放棄，但後來又恢復。 3月中旬，北京也宣佈在盧安達開展一項兒童早期發展項目，但美國國際開發署最近削減了與盧安達的合約。據報道，中國官員已向位於印度和中國之間的尼泊爾作出填補所欠缺資金的缺口。

聯合國兒童基金會駐柬埔寨代表 Will Parks 在一份聲明中表示，該組織和柬埔寨於 2024 年與中國簽署合作夥伴關係，該協議是基於 2022 年的一項提議。 Parks 說，該協議於本月初啟動，是對其他國家資金的「補充」。

他說： “過去十年來，柬埔寨為兒童事業取得了巨大進步”; “但進一步削減援助預算可能會危及這些來之不易的成就。”

柬埔寨政府明確表示要建立聯繫。

政府發言人 Pen Bona 在回答問題時通過短信表示： “柬埔寨政府與許多合作夥伴合作，我們從不只依賴任何一個合作夥伴” ; “因此，如果一個合作夥伴撤回支持，我們就會尋求尋找另一個合作夥伴來取代它。”

中國外交部在聲明中表示，中國 “將在南南合作框架下繼續”向柬埔寨“經濟社會發展提供幫助”。

中國外交部繼續表示： “中國的援助政策是一貫的、明確的”; “中國不干涉別國內政、不附加任何政治條件、不做空頭承諾的原則沒有改變。”

據一位知情人士透露，在本月國會山莊舉行的閉門聽證會上，由特朗普任命領導對美國國際開發署攻擊的 Pete Marocco 被問及柬埔寨項目以及中國迅速宣布這一消息的時間。這位知情人士說，Marocco並不理會人們對中國影響力不斷擴大的擔憂。

Marocco沒有回應置評請求。

儘管特朗普政府成員表示取消的項目沒有為美國人帶來任何好處，但已退休的美國國際開發署非洲事務代理助理署長的 Diana Putman 表示，該機構數十億美元的對外援助幫助美國大使獲得了關鍵優勢。

Putman說： “他們在該國外交政策方面的影響力和能力是由他們帶來的資金所支持，而在全球南方，這些資金主要是美國國際開發署的資金。”

美國外交關係委員會專家 Thomas Bollyky 和 ​​Yanzhong Huang 本週在《外交事務》上撰文指出，儘管中國可能會利用美國撤出重要市場的援助資金的機會，但北京「不會介入」填補那些面臨最大疾病風險的、戰略性較差的國家的關鍵全球衛生支出。

全球發展中心的 Kenny 表示： “我希望這事不會完全地被外交故事所掩蓋：真實地有人將因此喪命”; “這是很悲哀。”

              So, the US has canceled two aid projects in Cambodia in late February — one to encourage child literacy and another to improve nutrition and development for kids under five. It seems Trump does not believe that the money given out by USAID to Cambodia is useful in making leverage and ability to make a difference in terms of the US foreign policy. Apparently, the US will lose its soft power gradually in many regions.

Note:

1. South-South cooperation (SSC) (南南合作)refers to collaboration and partnership between developing countries which also known as countries of the Global South in sharing knowledge, resources, and expertise to achieve mutual development goals.

中國迅速介入，接替被特朗普取消的美國國際開發署亞洲援助計劃 (1/2)

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China Swoops In to Replace Asian USAID Efforts Axed by Trump (1/2)

Bloomberg - Iain Marlow and Philip J. Heijmans

Wed, March 26, 2025 at 7:22 a.m. PDT·6 min read

(Bloomberg) -- The US canceled two aid projects in Cambodia in late February — one to encourage child literacy and another to improve nutrition and development for kids under five. A week later, China’s aid agency announced funding for programs to achieve almost identical goals.

“Children are the future of the country and the nation,” China’s ambassador to Cambodia Wang Wenbin said at the event, standing next to the country’s health minister and a UNICEF official. “We should care for the healthy growth of children together.”

While China’s announcement didn’t include a dollar figure, the Chinese money essentially funds the same types of initiatives and development goals as efforts terminated as part of the Trump administration’s dismantling of USAID, according to two people with knowledge of the US projects, who weren’t authorized to speak publicly.

Both focused on “inclusive education” targeting the “most vulnerable children” and used a so-called nurturing care framework, according to news releases and procurement documents. They both provided school supplies, offering hand-washing materials and improving outcomes for “vulnerable” families and households, newborns and children with disabilities, according to the people.

The price tag for the US programs — $40 million — was small compared with the $27.7 billion in savings that the Trump administration said this week that it saved by axing thousands of aid contracts. But for Cambodia, whose national GDP is roughly equivalent to that Vermont, it was a big sum, and replacing lost foreign funds has been a priority.

The State Department, which oversees USAID and may now absorb the agency entirely, said in a statement that the US was funding aid programs that make Americans wealthier and more secure. At the same time, it said the US had achieved “significant progress” by investing in Cambodia’s development over the past 30 years, “partnering closely” with the government.

“Despite changes in the US approach to foreign assistance, we hope to see our relationship with Cambodia productively mature as we make America safer, stronger and more prosperous,” the department added in the statement.

The contracts were terminated on Feb. 26 after President Donald Trump and adviser Elon Musk launched a sweeping overhaul of US foreign assistance, which included dismantling the US Agency for International Development.

Although it’s only one example, it appears to confirm fears voiced by Democratic and some Republican lawmakers, aid advocates and former US officials: By slashing foreign aid, Trump is giving China an easy opportunity to fill a vacuum and gain a soft-power advantage in countries where the global adversaries compete for influence.

That’s especially urgent in Cambodia, where the US has spent roughly $1 billion since the 1990s. Washington has long waged an uphill battle with China in Southeast Asia, and Cambodia in particular. The Biden administration raised concerns about Chinese military influence at the country’s Ream Naval Base over the last four years.

But more recently, the US has moved to strengthen defense ties with the government in Phnom Penh, which granted an American warship access to Ream for the first time late last year.

(to be continued)

Translation

中國迅速介入，接替被特朗普取消的美國國際開發署亞洲援助計劃 (1/2)

(彭博)—美國於 2 月底取消了對柬埔寨的兩個援助項目，一個旨在提高兒童識字率，另一個旨在改善五歲以下兒童的營養和發育。一週後，中國援助機構宣佈為實現幾乎相同目標的項目提供資金。

中國駐柬埔寨大使 Wang Wenbin 在活動上與柬埔寨衛生部長和聯合國兒童基金會官員一起說道：“兒童是國家和民族的未來”; “我們應該共同關愛孩子們的健康成長。”

據兩位了解美國項目、未獲授權公開發言的人士透露，雖然中國在聲明中沒有提到具體金額，但這些中國資金實際上資助了與特朗普政府解散美國國際開發署 (USAID)後終止的項目相同類型的舉措和發展目標。

根據新聞稿和採購文件顯示，兩所學校均專注於針對 “最弱勢兒童” 的 “包容性教育” ，並採用所謂的培育護理框架。據知情人士透露，他們都提供了學習用品和洗手材料，並改善了「弱勢」家庭、新生兒和殘疾兒童的狀況。

美國這些項目的花費 - 4000萬美元 - 與特朗普政府本週表示透過取消數千份援助合約節省的277億美元相比微不足道。但對於國內生產毛額大致相當於佛蒙特州的柬埔寨來說，這是一筆巨款，彌補失去的外國資金一直是當務之急。

負責監管美國國際開發署的美國國務院現在可能完全吸收該機構，國務院在聲明中表示，美國正在資助援助項目去使美國人變得更富有、更安全。同時，它表示，美國過去 30 年來透過投資柬埔寨發展並與柬埔寨政府 “密切合作”，取得了“重大進展”。

該部門在聲明中補充說：“儘管美國的對外援助方式發生了變化，但我們希望看到與柬埔寨的關係富有成效地成熟，使美國變得更加安全、強大和繁榮。”

美國總統特朗普和顧問馬斯克對美國對外援助展開了全面改革，其中包括解散美國國際開發署，隨後這些合約於 2 月 26 日終止。

雖然這只是一個例子，但它似乎證實了民主黨和部分共和黨議員、援助倡導者和前美國官員的擔憂：透過削減外援，特朗普給了中國一個輕鬆填補真空的機會，並在全球對手爭奪影響力的國家中獲得軟實力優勢。

在柬埔寨尤其緊迫，自 1990 年代以來美國已在柬埔寨花費了大約 10 億美元。長期以來，華盛頓與中國在東南亞、尤其是在柬埔寨展開了艱苦的競爭。過去四年,拜登政府對中國在柬埔寨 Ream海軍基地的軍事影響表示擔憂。

但最近，美國已開始加強與金邊政府的國防關係，金邊政府去年底首次允許一艘美國軍艦進入Ream。

（待續）

貿易戰導致運輸路線改變，中國暫停進口美國液化天然氣

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

China Halts US LNG Imports as Trade War Reroutes Deliveries

Stephen Stapczynski

Mon, March 17, 2025 at 5:00 p.m. PDT·4 min read

(Bloomberg) -- China hasn’t imported liquefied natural gas from the US for 40 days, the longest gap in almost two years, as traders are forced to divert shipments elsewhere to avoid Beijing’s tariffs on the super-chilled fuel.

The barren streak is the most extended since June 2023, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. There currently aren’t any US shipments en route to China either, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler, an analytics firm.

The trade war provoked by the Trump administration is threatening to decouple the world’s biggest LNG seller and buyer. Beijing slapped a 15% tariff on US LNG shipments from Feb. 10 in retaliation for blanket American levies on Chinese exports.

In response, Chinese gas buyers with long-term commitments to US projects are reselling those shipments to Europe, according to traders. Firms in China are also reluctant to sign new deals with US facilities, and are looking to procure supply from Asia-Pacific or the Middle East instead.

China Resources Gas International on Monday agreed to buy LNG from Australia’s Woodside Energy Group Ltd. from 2027 for 15 years. It’s the first term-supply deal involving Chinese and Australian companies in years, and follows improved ties between Canberra and Beijing after trade relations hit a nadir at the start of the decade.

China is also boosting its energy security by focusing on producing more gas at home, which will help to curb import growth. Output has been steadily rising, and notched a 3.7% year-on-year increase in the first two months of 2025. At the same time, cheaper alternatives, from coal to renewables to gas piped overland from Russia, are taking the edge off Chinese demand for seaborne gas.

The last trade war under the first Trump presidency brought US LNG sales to China to a halt. Since resuming in 2020, Chinese imports of American gas have risen dramatically to average over 400,000 tons a month.

In January, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said LNG should be used as leverage in a new round of trade negotiations. China isn’t among the countries playing ball, though, which bodes ill for US developers trying to secure contracts to kick-start new projects.

Translation

貿易戰導致運輸路線改變，中國暫停進口美國液化天然氣

(彭博社)—中國已經 40 天沒有從美國進口液化天然氣，這是近兩年來最長的中斷時間，因為貿易商被迫將貨物轉移到其他地方，以避免北京對這種超冷凍燃料徵收關稅。

根據彭博社彙編的船舶追蹤數據，此次的淡靜是自 2023 年 6 月以來持續時間最長的一次。根據分析公司 Kpler 的船舶追蹤數據，目前也沒有任何美國貨物運往中國。

特朗普政府挑起的貿易戰有可能使全球最大的液化天然氣賣家和買家脱鈎。北京自 2 月 10 日起對美國液化天然氣徵收 15% 的關稅，以報復美國對中國出口產品徵收的全面關稅。

貿易商稱，作為回應，對美國項目有長期承諾的中國天然氣買家正在將這些天然氣轉售給歐洲。中國企業也不願與美國工廠簽署新的協議，而是尋求從亞太地區或中東地區採購供應。

華潤燃氣國際週一同意自 2027 年起向澳洲 Woodside Energy Group有限公司購買為期 15 年的液化天然氣。這是多年來首份涉及中國和澳洲企業的定期供應協議，也是坎培拉和北京之間的關係在本十年初跌至谷底之後有所改善的結果。

中國也透過集中生產更多的國內天然氣來增強其能源安全，這將有助於抑制進口增加。產量一直在穩步上升，並在 2025 年前兩個月實現了同比增長 3.7%。同時，從煤炭到再生能源到俄羅斯陸路管道輸送的天然氣等更便宜的替代能源正在削弱中國對海運天然氣的需求。

特朗普總統上一次任期內的貿易戰導緻美國對中國的液化天然氣銷售陷入停滯。自2020年恢復以來，中國對美國天然氣的進口量急劇上升，平均每月進口量超過40萬噸。

今年 1 月，國務卿盧比奧 表示，液化天然氣應該成為新一輪貿易談判的籌碼。然而，中國並不在參與其中的國家之列，對試圖獲得合同以啟動新項目的美國開發商來說是個壞兆頭。

So, China hasn’t imported liquefied natural gas from the US for 40 days, the longest gap in almost two years, as traders are forced to divert shipments elsewhere to avoid Beijing’s tariffs on the super-chilled fuel. At the same time, cheaper alternatives from Russia are reducing China’s demand for seaborne gas. Apparently, China is reducing its reliance on the US.

特朗普大力打擊東南亞作為中國替代者的地位 (2/2)

 Recently The New York Times reported the following:

Trump Took a Wrecking Ball to Southeast Asia’s Role as an Alternative to China (2/2)

Punishing tariffs on Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and others in the region threaten their position as major manufacturing hubs for the American market.

By Alexandra Stevenson Reporting from Hong Kong

April 3, 2025

Updated 10:04 a.m. ET

(continue)

The United States is Vietnam’s largest export market, accounting for more than 30 percent of its total exports, including consumer electronics, smartphones, garments and footwear and wood furniture. Around a third of U.S. footwear was made in the country last year, making it the largest exporter of shoes to the United States. Nike, the sportswear brand, produces about 50 percent of its footwear in Vietnam.

Vietnam’s prime minister, Pham Minh Chinh, held an emergency cabinet meeting with his top ministers on Thursday to discuss how to respond to the tariffs. Other government agencies convened to try to understand how the Trump administration tariffs were calculated and how they would be applied. Companies and business associations, many of which had anticipated a tariff of 10 percent, expressed hope that the government could still hold talks with the Trump administration to reduce the levy.

“I was horrified when I saw the tariff numbers on the chart,” said Hong Sun, chairman of a South Korean business association in Vietnam, whose members includes the consumer electronics companies Samsung and LG.

“We can only hope that the Vietnamese government can help us weather this tsunami,” he said.

In Thailand, the government emphasized that it was ready to negotiate and “engage in dialogue” with Washington. But it also encouraged companies to “seek new potential markets” in the face of the 36 percent tariffs levied on goods going to the United States, its biggest export market.

For American business owners such as Patrick Soong, who helps U.S. companies to design and make their products in the region, the tariffs on Thursday create uncertainty. His clients make everything from luggage to camera accessories to medical devices.

Mr. Soong and his company, Allitra, spent months looking for alternatives to China for his clients after Mr. Trump was re-elected last November. But on Thursday he was already making plans to move some production out of Thailand and Vietnam.

Mr. Soong planned to visit new factories in the Philippines with the idea of potentially moving some manufacturing there. Mr. Trump imposed new tariffs of 17 percent on the Philippines, less than half the duty he placed on Thailand and nearly a third lower than on Vietnam.

“I was planning on moving more product to Thailand," said Mr. Soong.

“I was looking at it as a next bet,” he said. “That has been disrupted.”

(Damien Cave and Tung Ngo contributed reporting from Ho Chi Minh City, and Muktita Suhartono and Sui-Lee Wee from Bangkok.)

Translation

特朗普大力打擊東南亞作為中國替代者的地位 (2/2)

對越南、柬埔寨、泰國和該地區其他國家徵收懲罰性關稅以威嚇它們作為美國市場主要製造中心的地位。

（繼續）

美國是越南最大的出口市場，佔其出口總額的30%以上，包括消費性電子產品、智慧型手機、服裝和鞋類以及木製家具。去年，美國約有三分之一的鞋類是在中國生產的，中國是美國最大的鞋類出口國。運動服飾品牌Nike約 50% 的鞋類產品在越南生產。

越南總理 Pham Minh Chinh 週四與各高級部長召開緊急內閣會議，討論如何應對關稅。其他政府機構召開會議，試圖了解特朗普政府的關稅是如何計算以及如何實施。許多企業和商業協會期望10%關稅，他們表示希望政府仍能與特朗普政府進行談判，以降低關稅。

越南一家韓國商業協會會長Hong Sun表示:「當我看到圖表上的關稅數字時，我感到震驚」，該協會的成員包括消費性電子公司三星和 LG。

他說:「我們只能希望越南政府能夠幫助我們渡過這場海嘯」。

在泰國，政府強調已準備好與華盛頓進行談判和「對話」。但面對中國對最大出口市場美國徵收 36% 關稅的威脅，中國政府也鼓勵企業「尋找新的潛在市場」。

對於像Patrick Soong這樣幫助美國公司在該地區設計和生產產品的美國企業擁有者來說，週四的關稅帶來了不確定性。他的客戶生產各種產品，從行李箱到相機配件到醫療設備。

去年 11 月特朗普再次當選後，Soong先生和他的公司 Allitra 花了數月時間為客戶尋找中國的替代方案。但周四他已開始製定計劃，將部分生產轉移出泰國和越南。

Soong 先生計劃參觀菲律賓的新工廠，以考慮將部分製造業轉移到那裡。特朗普對菲律賓徵收了 17% 的新關稅，不到對泰國徵收的關稅的一半，比對越南徵收的關稅低近三分之一。

Soong 先生說: 「我計劃將更多產品運往泰國」。

他說：“我把它看作是下一個賭注” ;“這已經被打亂了。”

So, for a long time, countries like Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand have worked to turn themselves into alternatives to China for factories making goods that eventually sold in the United States. That will be changed after President Trump imposes high tariffs at countries in Southeast Asia. This decision by Trump is a blow to American companies that depend on factories in the region. Apparently, price of imported goods in the US will increase and inflation in the country will go up. While the tariffs may induce some overseas factories to move to the US, I am wondering whether Trump fully knows its negative effect and impact on the US economically and on its global allies politically.

特朗普大力打擊東南亞作為中國替代者的地位 (1/2)

 Recently The New York Times reported the following:

Trump Took a Wrecking Ball to Southeast Asia’s Role as an Alternative to China (1/2)

Punishing tariffs on Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and others in the region threaten their position as major manufacturing hubs for the American market.

By Alexandra Stevenson Reporting from Hong Kong

April 3, 2025

Updated 10:04 a.m. ET

For years, countries like Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand have worked to turn themselves into alternatives to China for factories making the bags, electronics, shoes and auto parts that eventually end up in the United States.

That is now poised to change after President Trump on Wednesday aimed his most punishing tariffs at countries in Southeast Asia.

The news came as a hammer blow to American companies that have come to depend on factories in the region amid growing U.S.-China trade tensions. Some were asking: Where to now?

“This is much worse than what most of us had anticipated,” said Sonal Varma, chief economist for Asia excluding Japan at Nomura, the Japanese bank.

There were no illusions that any one country in Southeast Asia would be spared, but the size of the tariffs was a shock, as many of these countries are trade partners and allies with the United States.

Singapore, a close partner of the United States, said it was disappointed by the imposition of 10 percent tariffs despite a free-trade agreement with the United States and said that it would engage with the United States to understand how it calculated the tariffs.

Vietnam and Cambodia were singled out with new tariffs of 46 percent and 49 percent — among the steepest meted out to any country in the world, not accounting for earlier tariffs on specific sectors and countries such as China. In Thailand and Indonesia, the tariffs were high too, at 36 percent and 32 percent.

Mr. Trump had not previously given much air to concerns about the region, unlike his lengthy tirades against countries like China and Mexico, said Priyanka Kishore, an economist in Singapore and the founder of Asia Decoded, a consulting firm. “And then bam, Southeast Asia gets hit really hard,” she said.

The tariffs on Vietnam were especially harsh and could have long lasting effects on global trade because of how important the country has become as a substitute to manufacturing in China. “I’m still wrapping my head around it,” said Ms. Kishore.

Together with Mexico, Vietnam has been the biggest beneficiary of shifting global supply chains in recent years, as companies moved their factories out of neighboring China because of rising costs and growing tensions between the U.S. and China. The boom sent Vietnam’s trade surplus with the United States ballooning to $123.5 billion in 2024, the third highest after China and Mexico.

Initially, much of that trade was from companies rerouting products from China into Vietnam before exporting them to the United States. But in recent years, more of that trade has been driven by products made in Vietnam, as companies built new factories in the country and tried to replicate much of the China supply chain.

(to be continued)

Translation

特朗普大力打擊東南亞作為中國替代者的地位 (1/2)

對越南、柬埔寨、泰國和該地區其他國家徵收懲罰性關稅以威嚇它們作為美國市場主要製造中心的地位。

多年來，越南、柬埔寨和泰國等國家一直致力於將自己打造成中國的替代國家，生產物品容器、電子產品、鞋子和汽車零件，這些產品最終銷往美國。

特朗普總統週三對東南亞國家徵收最嚴厲的關稅後，這種情況即將改變。

在中美貿易緊張局勢加劇之際，這一消息對依賴該地區工廠的美國公司來說是一個沉重的打擊。有人問：接下來去哪裡？

日本野村證券（Nomura）日本以外亞洲地區首席經濟學家 Sonal Varma 表示： “這比我們大多數人預期的要糟糕得多。”

沒有人幻想東南亞任何一個國家能倖免，但關稅的規模令人震驚，因為其中許多國家都是美國的貿易夥伴和盟友。

美國的親密合作夥伴新加坡表示，儘管與美國簽訂了自由貿易協定，但新加坡對美國仍徵收 10% 的關稅感到失望，並表示將與美國接觸，了解如何計算關稅。

越南和柬埔寨被單獨列為被徵收 46% 和 49% 的新關稅的國家，這是全球被徵收最高額度的關稅之一，不包括先前對特定行業和中國等國家徵收的關稅。泰國和印尼的關稅也很高，分別為36%和32%。

新加坡經濟學家、顧問公司 Asia Decoded 的創辦人 Priyanka Kishore 表示，與針對中國和墨西哥等國的長篇大論不同，特朗普此前並沒有對這區域太多關注。她說: 「然後突然東南亞就遭受了嚴重打擊」。

對越南徵收的關稅尤其嚴厲，並且可能對全球貿易產生長期影響，因為越南已成為中國製造業的重要替代者。 Kishore 女士說:「我還在理解這個問題」。

近年來，由於成本上升和中美關係緊張加劇，企業紛紛將工廠遷出鄰近的中國，越南和墨西哥成為全球供應鏈轉移的最大受益者。經濟繁榮導致越南對美國的貿易順差在 2024 年激增至 1,235 億美元，僅次於中國和墨西哥，位居第三。

最初，大部分貿易都是由企業將產品從中國轉運到越南，然後再出口到美國。但近年來，隨著企業在越南建立新工廠並試圖複製大部分中國供應鏈，越來越多的貿易是由越南製造的產品所推動。

（待續）

機構分析師表示解決美國海軍造船問題應從工人開始 (2/2)

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Fixing the US Navy's shipbuilding problems starts with the workers, agency analysts say (2/2)

Business Insider - Chris Panella

Sun, March 16, 2025 at 4:17 a.m. PDT·4 min read

(continue)

Oakley's statement to lawmakers this week, which featured information from the GAO's study on Navy shipbuilding, said that shipyards are largely struggling to replace the loss of experienced, skilled workers with new ones.

This issue applies, too, to white-collar shipbuilders like designers, naval architects, and engineers who "can take other jobs," Ronald O'Rourke, a naval affairs analyst with the Congressional Research Service, said.

There is also overlap with maintenance and repair yards. Oakley noted that the Navy's strategy has to focus on that alongside building, as they're inseparable and face similar issues, especially with regard to labor.

Some major US shipbuilders, especially those working on top US Navy submarines and surface ships, have pointed out the differences between their workforces today and 30 years ago: they're having trouble hiring people and keeping experienced workers.

They've also spoken to the overlap between these labor issues and other problems in shipbuilding. The Navy has often had inconsistent demand signals for its programs, which leaves industry in an uncertain place for hiring and maintaining workers.

US commercial and military shipbuilding problems are a priority in Washington right now. President Donald Trump has announced plans to create a White House office dedicated to the issue, and both his pick for Navy secretary and his defense secretary have highlighted the focus on shipbuilding.

The urgency is especially felt amid China's continued shipbuilding dominance. China boasts the largest shipbuilding industry in the world, vastly overshadowing the US, with blurred lines between its commercial and military yards.

As the US continues to prioritize meeting China's rise and the state of great power competition, shipbuilding has come to the forefront as a potential problem for the American military should the US and China clash at sea.

As it stands, the Navy's plans to continue building and maintaining its fleet will come at a hefty price tag. The US Congressional Budget Office said earlier this year it expected the Navy, based on the service's 2025 shipbuilding plan, to need about $40 billion each year through 2054.

But due to infrastructure and workforce limitations, the GAO said, "none of the seven shipbuilders that construct Navy battle force ships are currently positioned to meet the Navy's ship delivery goals."

Translation

機構分析師表示解決美國海軍造船問題應從工人開始 (2/2)

（繼續）

Oakley 本周向立法者發表的聲明引用了美國政府問責署關 (GAO)於海軍造船業的研究信息，聲明中表示，造船廠在很大程度上難以用新工人來取代流失的有經驗、熟練的工人。

美國國會研究服務處海軍事務分析師 Ronald O'Rourke說，這一問題同樣適用於設計師、船舶建築師和工程師等「可以從事其他工作」的白領船舶建造者。

它也與維修和修理場有重疊。Oakley指出，海軍的戰略必須把這些一併重點放在建設上，因為它們密不可分，而且面臨類似的問題，特別是在勞動力方面。

美國主要造船廠，特別是致力於給美國海軍頂級潛艇和水面艦艇服務的造船廠，指出了今天的勞動力與30年前的差異：他們在招募人員和留住有經驗的工人方面遇到了困難。

他們也談到了勞工問題與造船業其他問題的重疊。海軍的需求計劃訊息經常不一致，這導致該行業在僱用和留住工人方面處於不確定的境地。

美國商用和軍用船舶建造問題是華盛頓目前的首要任務。特朗普總統已宣布計劃在白宮設立一個專門處理這一問題的辦公室，他挑選的海軍部長和國防部長都強調了對造船業的關注。

在中國繼續保持造船業主導地位的背景下，這種緊迫性顯得尤為明顯。中國擁有世界上最大的造船業，遠遠超過美國，其商業和軍用造船廠之間的界線非常模糊。

隨著美國繼續優先應對中國的崛起​​和與大國競爭，一旦美國和中國在海上發生衝突，造船業顯得引人注意成為了美國軍方面臨的潛在問題。

按照目前的情況，海軍繼續建造和維護其艦隊的計劃將花費高昂的價錢。美國國會預算辦公室今年稍早表示，根據海軍 2025 年造船計劃，預計到 2054 年海軍每年將需要約 400 億美元。

但美國政府問責局表示，由於基礎設施和勞動力的限制， “建造海軍戰鬥艦艇的七家造船廠目前都無法滿足海軍的艦艇交付目標。”

              So, the American shipbuilding industry is facing severe issues, primarily in improving its workforce that start with providing competitive wages, quality-of-life improvements, and retention of skilled employees.  The Navy's plans to continue building and maintaining its fleet will be very expensive. Apparently, the US has to find new money to support its navy.

Note:

1. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) is an independent agency whose mission is to "provide Congress with timely information that is objective, fact-based, nonpartisan, non-ideological, fair, and balanced." Its reports give Congress information that can improve government operations and save taxpayers billions of dollars. (https://www.gao.gov/for-congress/reports)

機構分析師表示解決美國海軍造船問題應從工人開始 (1/2)

 Recently Yahoo News on-line picked up the following:

Fixing the US Navy's shipbuilding problems starts with the workers, agency analysts say (1/2)

Business Insider - Chris Panella

Sun, March 16, 2025 at 4:17 a.m. PDT·4 min read

The American shipbuilding industry is grappling with severe problems, none perhaps more crucial than the state of the workforce, naval affairs experts said this week.

Addressing the shipbuilding industry's workforce challenges, they explained, starts with competitive wages, quality-of-life improvements, and retention of skilled employees.

At a House Armed Service Committee Seapower and Projection Forces subcommittee hearing, members and witnesses talked about some of the woes facing US shipbuilders, such as the smaller industrial base and erratic demand signals from the Navy, and how these long-standing challenges are affecting top Navy programs.

"To say this plainly, we must act now," said Sen. Trent Kelly, the subcommittee chairman.

"Whether through changes to our procurement processes, stronger industrial base investments, or cultural shifts within shipbuilding program offices," the Mississippi Republican said, "we need to make these decisions sooner rather than later."

A range of topics were discussed during the hearing, but the problems relating to shipbuilding workers were center stage.

The consensus among witnesses like Eric Labs, senior analyst for naval forces and weapons with the Congressional Budget Office, and Shelby Oakley, the director of contracting and national security acquisitions with the Government Accountability Office, was that the starting point for fixing US shipbuilding issues is investing in the workforce.

"In my view, nothing is more important than addressing the critical labor shortages that afflict all the shipbuilding and public maintenance yards," Labs said. Recruitment has been low, and retention difficult, especially in trades such as welding, ship fitters, and pipe fitters.

The primary solution brought up was higher wages. Worker pay isn't competitive enough, experts argued, especially for what can be a demanding job, meaning potential workers are opting for employment at retail outlets and other places. There's a decline in interest in manufacturing jobs and not enough investment in fixing that.

Other related problems are improving the quality of life and working conditions in the yards, cheaper housing, and more benefits. Upping automation in shipyards, as well as better worker training, too, were included.

There have been proposals put forward for better pay, as that's been a focus for industry and the Navy, but the challenges aren't easily solved. Higher wages invite entry-level workers, experts said, but then those yards must retain those skilled workers and invest in their careers.

(to be continued)

Translation

機構分析師表示解決美國海軍造船問題應從工人開始 (1/2)

 

海軍事務專家們本週表示，美國造船業正面臨嚴重的問題，其中最關鍵的或許就是勞動力狀況。

他們解釋說，解決船舶製造業的勞動力挑戰首先要有競爭力的薪資、改善生活品質和留住熟練的員工。

在眾議院軍事委員會海上力量和兵力投送小組委員會的聽證會上，議員和證人談到了美國造船商面臨的一些困境，例如工業基礎較小、海軍發出的需求信號不穩定，以及這些長期存在的挑戰如何影響海軍頂級項目。

小組委員會主席 Trent Kelly 參議員說: 「坦白說，我們必須立即採取行動」。

這位密西西比州共和黨人表示： “無論是通過改變我們的採購流程、加強工業基礎投資，還是造船項目辦公室內部的文化轉變，我們都需要儘早做出這些決定。”

聽證會上討論了一系列主題，但有關造船工人的問題成為焦點。

美國國會預算辦公室海軍力量與武器高級分析師 Eric Labs, 和美國政府問責局承包與國家安全收購主管Shelby Oakley 等證人的共識是，解決美國造船問題的起點是投資於勞動力。

Labs說： “在我看來，沒有什麼比解決困擾所有造船和公共維修廠的嚴重勞動力短缺問題更重要。”  招聘人數一直很低，而且很難留住人才，特別是在焊接、船舶裝配工和管道裝配工等行業。

提出的主要解決方案是提高工資。專家認為，工人的薪水不夠有競爭力，特別是對於要求高的工作來說，這意味著潛在的工人會選擇在零售店和其他地方就業。人們對製造業職位的興趣正在下降，而去解決這個問題的投資卻不夠。

其他相關問題包括改善船塢裡的生活質素和工作條件、提供更便宜的住房以及提供更多的福利。其中還包括提高造船廠的自動化程度以及加強工人培訓。

已經有人提出了提高薪資的建議，因為這是工業界和海軍關注的重點，但這些挑戰並不容易解決。專家表示，更高的工資可以吸引初級工人，但船廠必須留住這些技術工人，並對他們的職業生涯進行投資。

（待續）