Chinese stock is “the defeat of one man” - Escaping money goes to Japan (2/2)

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

「1人負け」の中国株 逃避マネーは日本に (2/2)

【中国発経済コラム】

2024年2月11日 0時02分

(continue)

“楽観”に満ちている？

「国中が楽観的な雰囲気に満ちている」

中国の株価がこれだけ下落しているにもかかわらず、2月2日に中国共産党の機関紙、「人民日報」にこのような記事が掲載されました。

記事では国民の生活を向上させたとして政府の政策を称賛。

「人民の幸福感は大きく改善した」などとうたいあげています。

しかし、同じ2日の上海株式市場では、株価指数が一時4％以上急落。

SNSでは、この記事とともに下落が続く上海株のチャートや株価ボードなどのスクリーンショットを載せ、記事の内容をやゆする投稿が相次ぎました。

 

楽観論にはリスク

「経済の宣伝と世論誘導を強化し、中国経済光明論を高らかにうたう」

習近平指導部が2023年12月に開いた「中央経済工作会議」で打ち出した方針です。

以降、上記の「人民日報」の記事のように中国メディアの経済報道には楽観論が目立つようになりました。

しかし、実態とかけ離れた楽観論では投資家のマインドは冷え込むばかりで、むしろ逆効果です。

過度な楽観論は実態を覆い隠してしまう危険性すら、はらんでいると言わざるをえません。

 

中国マネー流入の日本株は？

では、中国から入り込む巨額のマネーによって日本株は安泰なのでしょうか。

日経平均株価は34年ぶりの高値を更新し、バブル期1989年の史上最高値である3万8000円台もそう遠くない距離にあります。

注目点は日米の金融政策です。

日銀が金融の正常化に向けた政策変更に踏み切るのはいつなのか、そしてアメリカ・FRB＝連邦準備制度理事会の利下げはいつ始まるのか。

2月8日、日銀の内田副総裁が懇談会で「仮にマイナス金利を解除してもその後にどんどん利上げしていくようなパスは考えにくく、緩和的な金融環境を維持していくことになる」と発言したことをきっかけに株価は大きく上昇しました。

しかし、FRBが年内に利下げすることは確実視されています。

日米の政策の方向が変わると為替が円高に振れ、海外投資家の「日本買い」はうまみが減る可能性もあります。

中国で伝えられる「楽観論」に触れるたびに不都合な真実にもきちんと目を向けていくことの重要性をかみしめています。

日本株に対しても楽観的なムードを味わうのは一定程度に抑えて、冷静に、そして少し警戒の目をもっていたいと思っています。

 

注目予定

来週は13日と15日、アメリカで消費者物価指数と小売売上高がそれぞれ発表されます。

FRBは4会合連続で政策金利を据え置いていて、政策の先行きを占う上で、インフレや個人消費の動向が注目されます。

15日には日本とイギリスでGDPの速報値も発表されます。

Translation

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 Full of “optimism”?

“There is an atmosphere of optimism throughout the country.”

 Despite the fact that China's stock prices had fallen so much, an article like below was published in the Chinese Communist Party's official newspaper, People's Daily, on February 2nd.

The article praised the government's policies for improving people's lives.

It claimed that ``people's sense of well-being has greatly improved.''

However, on the same day, on the Shanghai stock market its index plummeted by more than 4% at one point.

Along with this article, there were a number of posts on social media mocking the content of this article, with screenshots of charts and stock price boards about Shanghai stocks attached which showed a continuing fall.

There were risks to optimism

"We will strengthen economic propaganda and public opinion guidance, and loudly proclaim the idea of China's economic prosperity."

This was a policy announced by Xi Jinping's leadership at the Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2023.

Since then, optimism had become prominent in Chinese media's economic coverage, as seen in the above-mentioned article from People's Daily.

However, as optimism was far from reality, it would only dampen investor sentiment and instead got the opposite effect.

Excessive optimism even ran the risk of obscuring reality, and when the situation further developed, the mouths that made gossips could no longer be shut.

What about Japanese stocks with the inflow of Chinese money?

So, were Japanese stocks safe due to the huge amount of money coming in from China?

The Nikkei Stock Average had hit a new high for the first time in 34 years, and was not far from its all-time high of 38,000 yen set in 1989 during the bubble period.

The focus was on the monetary policies of Japan and the United States.

When would the Bank of Japan make a policy change on the goals at normalizing financial conditions, and when would the US FRB (Federal Reserve Board) start to cut interest rates?

On February 8, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida said at a roundtable meeting, ``Even if negative interest rates are lifted, it is difficult to imagine a path on how will interest rates continue to rise after that,  we will need to maintain an accommodative financial environment'' ; the stock price rose sharply after his statement.

However, it looked certain that the Fed might cut interest rates before the end of the year.

If the policy direction of Japan and the United States changed, the yen would appreciate, and overseas investors' "buying in Japan" might lose its appeal.

Every time I heard about ``optimism'' that was being conveyed in China, I was reminded of the importance of paying close attention to inconvenient truths.

I would like to limit my optimistic mood towards Japanese stocks to a certain extent, and remained calm and maintained a sense of caution.

Schedules to note

Next week, the US consumer price index and retail sales would be announced on the 13th and 15th, respectively.

The Federal Reserve had kept its policy interest rate unchanged for four consecutive meetings, and in predicting the future direction of policy trends, inflation and consumer spending would be closely watched.

Preliminary GDP figures would also be announced in Japan and the UK on the 15th.

              So, probably due the increased investment from mainland China investors, the Nikkei Stock Average has hit a new high for the first time in 34 years, and is not far from its all-time high of 38,000 yen set in 1989 during the bubble period. I think it is also partly responsible for a boom in the US financial markets. The question is whether the new high in Japanese stock may become a bubble.