Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:
US chicken prices to fall at last thanks to green fuel
boom (2/2)
Bloomberg - Gerson Freitas Jr.
Updated Sun, January 28, 2024 at 8:25 a.m. PST·5 min read
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The lower input costs will also be good news for
meatpackers, who’ve seen a sharp drop in their margins. Although many meat
companies raked in the profits during the pandemic as Americans working from
home bought more food, the sector has since been slammed by a supply glut and
high feed costs. US meat giant Tyson Foods Inc. has logged multiple quarters of
negative operating margins for both its pork and chicken divisions and
announced last year the shutdown of several chicken plants to help rein in
costs. Federal probes into price-fixing and labor practices in the wider US
chicken industry have only added to the sector’s headaches.
The broiler chicken industry will be able to capitalize on the lower feed costs before pork, given the shorter cycle of production. Beef prices are unlikely to be directly impacted, since cows aren’t generally fed soymeal, though lower prices for chicken and pork may eventually bring down beef, too, due to competition between the meats.
Feed costs — including soymeal and corn — make up roughly 60% of the expense of raising birds and hogs. Unlike producing ethanol from corn, which leaves much less byproduct meal, processing soybeans creates four tons of soymeal for every one ton of oil. And the country is going to be needing a whole lot of that oil. S&P Global sees domestic demand for renewable diesel reaching 4 billion gallons in 2030, up from around 2.7 billion last year.
As a result, the US will find itself with roughly 30% more US soybean meal production capacity in 2026 compared with 2022 levels, “which is quite bearish for soymeal,” Stephens Inc. analyst Ben Bienvenu said. Cheaper forward contracts indicate meal prices will trend lower through at least 2027.
“Refiners are going to be running for oil, and there’ll be that derivative meal,” said Hans Kabat, who runs the North American protein business for Cargill Inc., the co-owner of the country’s third-largest poultry producer. “That is a tailwind for the protein industry.”
Some of that extra soymeal will also be consumed abroad, as will any surplus meat produced as companies enjoying the lower feed costs ramp up output.
“We’re going to expand our pork and poultry industry and that’s what we’re going to export,” said Gregg Doud, former chief agriculture negotiator in the Office of US Trade Representative under the Donald Trump administration. “We’re going up the value chains.”
Translation
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較低的投入成本對於利潤率急劇下降的肉品加工商來說也是個好消息。 儘管許多肉類公司在疫情期間因在家工作的美國人購買了更多食品而獲得了利潤，但此後該行業因供應過剩和飼料成本高而受到打擊。 美國肉類巨頭 Tyson Foods Inc. 的豬肉和雞肉部門的營業利潤率連續多個季度出現負數，並於去年宣布關閉幾家雞肉工廠，以幫助控制成本。 而聯邦政府對美國養雞業的價格壟斷和勞工行為進行調查，只會加劇該行業的麻煩。
由於生產週期較短，肉雞產業將能夠相比豬肉較能利用飼料成本的下跌好處。 牛肉價格不太可能受到直接影響，因為乳牛通常不餵食豆粕，但由於肉類之間的競爭，雞肉和豬肉價格的下降最終也可能導致牛肉價格下降。
飼料成本（包括豆粕和玉米）約佔飼養禽類和生豬費用的 60%。 與從玉米生產乙醇所留下很十分少的副產品不同，加工大豆每生產一噸油就會產生四噸豆粕。 該國將需要大量油。 標準普爾全球預計，到 2030 年，國內需求再生柴油將達到 40 億加侖，高於去年的約 27 億加侖。
因此，美國到 2026 年的豆粕產能將比 2022 年增加約 30%，Stephens Inc. 分析師 Ben Bienvenu 表示: 「這對豆粕來說相當利空」。 更便宜的遠期合約表明，至少到 2027 年，肉價格將呈下降趨勢。
Hans Kabat是負責 Cargill Inc. 北美蛋白質業務, 而這公司亦是美國第三大家禽生產商的共同所有者, 他表示： “煉油廠將會急於去獲得石油，從而衍生出豆粕” 。 “這對蛋白質行業來說是一股順風。”
其中一些額外的豆粕也將被國外購買，隨著飼料成本較低的公司提高產量而生產的任何剩餘肉類也將被國外購買。
特朗普政府時期的美國貿易代表辦公室前首席農業談判代表 Gregg Doud 表示： “我們將擴大豬肉和家禽產業，這就是我們要出口的產品” 。 “我們正在向價值鏈上游進發。”
So, the Americans are likely to see a drop in meat prices thanks to the emerging
renewable fuel industry. Processing the vast amounts of soybeans needed to make
the plant-based jet fuel and diesel will create a large amount of co-product soymeal used in animal feed. The cheap
soymeal will lower the cost in feeding poultry and encourage the export of
cheaper American chicken meat and pork.
Note:
Meal is a
substance which has been crushed to make a rough powder, especially plant seeds
crushed to make flour or for animal food, for example bone meal and soymeal.
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