Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:
US chicken prices to fall at last thanks to green fuel
boom (1/2)
Bloomberg - Gerson Freitas Jr.
Updated Sun, January 28, 2024 at 8:25 a.m. PST·5 min read
(Bloomberg) — After years of butcher-counter sticker shock,
Americans are likely to see a drop in meat prices thanks to an unlikely ally:
the emerging renewable fuel industry.
Processing the vast amounts of soybeans needed to make the plant-based jet fuel and diesel required to lower US emissions will also create mountains of co-product soymeal, widely used in animal feed. The less expensive it is for meatpackers to feed their animals, the more meat they’ll produce, ultimately trickling down to lower prices at the grocery store.
“Meal is going to be priced to disappear and go away,” said Gordon Denny, an agricultural consultant and former procurement director at crop giant Bunge Global SA. As a result, “protein in all forms will get a little less expensive.”
It will undoubtedly take months or even years for the cost savings to work their way down the supply chain. Still, any drop in meat costs will bring welcome relief to inflation-fatigued households. Although the consumer price index for core goods, which excludes energy and food, ended 2023 at the weakest pace in more than two years, the prices of some basic grocery items have been sticky.
Meat inflation has been particularly stubborn. Retail chicken breast prices, which averaged less than $3 a pound in March 2020, soared to $4.75 a pound in September 2022. Prices have since inched back to earth but are still elevated, US Department of Agriculture data show. With Americans eating around 100 pounds of chicken a year, the price hikes are hard to ignore. Lower-income consumers are more likely to trade down or walk away from high-priced meat versus groceries overall, said Sofia Baig, an economist at market research company Morning Consult.
To be sure, meat prices are also influenced by a number of
other factors including the availability of corn — the other key feed component
— as well as labor, logistical disruptions, animal disease outbreaks and
consumer demand. More than half the cost of meat on the grocery store shelf
occurs after the animal has left the farm, said Chad Hart, professor of
economics at Iowa State University.
Companies including Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. and Bunge are racing to expand soybean processing capacity, but it will take some plants years to reach full capacity. Even once the increased supply of meal hits the market, the lower feed costs won’t translate to smaller grocery bills immediately.
“It’s still going to take them a while to work that through the cost of goods to what the consumer sees or even to the wholesale channel,” said Brian Earnest, lead protein industry analyst at CoBank. When the lower prices start showing up, they’re likely to arrive in the form of sales, like buy one, get one offers. “That promotional activity is going to ramp up here this year.”
(to be continued)
Translation
（彭博）—經過多年的屠宰肉檯價格衝擊之後，美國人可能會看到肉類價格下跌，這要歸功於一個不太可能的盟友：新興的可再生燃料行業。
出大量加工生產用以降低美國排放所需的植物性航空燃料和柴油所需的大豆，也產生大量副產品:豆粕，廣泛用於動物飼料。 肉類生產商餵食動物的成本越低，他們生產的肉類就越多，最終導致在雜貨店的價格更低。
農作物巨頭 Bunge Global SA 的農業顧問兼前採購總監 Gordon Denny 表示： “豆粕的價位將會淡出消失。” 因此， “所有形式的蛋白質都會變得更便宜一些。”
毫無疑問，成本下降需要數月,甚至數年的時間才能在供應鏈中發揮作用。 儘管如此，肉類成本的任何下降,都將為飽受通膨困擾的家庭帶來可喜的緩解。 儘管不包括能源和食的核心商品的消費者物價指數以兩年多來最弱的速度結束了2023 年，但一些基本雜貨的價格仍難以解決。
肉類通膨尤其頑固。 2020 年 3 月，雞胸肉零售價格平均每磅不到 3 美元，在2022 年 9 月飆升至每磅 4.75 美元。美國農業部數據顯示，此後價格已小幅回落，但仍處於較高水平。 由於美國人每年消耗約 100 磅雞肉，因此價格上漲不容忽視。 市場研究公司 Morning Consult 的經濟學家 Sofia Baig 表示，與食品雜貨相比，低收入消費者更有可能降低消費或放棄購買高價肉類。
可以肯定的是，肉類價格也受到許多其他因素的影響，包括玉米（另一種關鍵飼料成分）的供應以及勞動力、物流中斷、動物疾病爆發和消費者需求。 愛荷華州立大學經濟學教授Chad Hart表示，雜貨店貨架上的肉品成本一半以上出現在動物離開農場之後。
包括 Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.和 Bunge 在內的公司正在競相擴大大豆加工能力，但一些工廠需要數年時間才能達到全速生產。 即使增加的飼料供應進入市場，飼料成本的降低也不會立即令雜貨費用減少。
CoBank 蛋白質行業首席分析師 Brian Earnest 表示： “他們仍然需要一段時間才能將商品成本納入至消費者所見到，甚至進入批發管道。” 當較低的價格開始出現時，它們很可能會以促銷的形式出現，例如買一送一。 “今年的促銷活動將會加強。”
（待續）
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