印度隨著與中國的競爭加劇，開始展示其海軍力量 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

India begins to flex its naval power as competition with China grows (2/2)

AIJAZ HUSSAIN

Thu, February 1, 2024 at 7:26 p.m. PST·5 min read

(continue)

China has built up its presence over the years in the Indian Ocean, a key route for its energy supplies. It has the world’s largest navy by number of ships, more than three times the size of the Indian navy. China also operates a powerful fleet of large coast guard ships and what is referred to as its maritime militia consisting of fishing vessels that cooperate with the coast guard in asserting territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Beijing has deepened its engagement in the Indian Ocean mainly through infrastructure deals with India’s neighbors, including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and most recently the Maldives.

“The Chinese are looking for more and more naval bases in the extended Indian Ocean,” said Lt. Gen. D. S. Hooda, a former Indian military officer and now a strategic expert. “Seeing that, India doesn’t have any other option but to keep building up its own.”

The Maldives government last week gave clearance to a Chinese research ship to dock in its port. Similar Chinese ships have made port calls in Sri Lanka in 2022 and 2023 amid fears in India that they could be used to surveil the region. India's concerns led Sri Lanka earlier this year to declare a one-year moratorium on foreign research ships entering its waters.

Experts say the growing competition with China is energizing India to acquire more advanced ships, submarines and aircraft and invest more in technology and infrastructure. The navy’s share of India’s burgeoning defense budget, which reached $72.6 billion last year, has increased to 19% from about 14%. The Indian army has traditionally received the lion’s share of the military budget.

The navy has also built strategic partnerships through participation in joint exercises with other nations in the region and beyond.

Baruah, who directs the Indian Ocean Initiative at the Carnegie Endowment, said there is a “need for Delhi’s strategic thinking to be maritime-oriented, not just as an option for crisis response but as a theater to advance India’s most pressing geopolitical and strategic priorities in the Indo-Pacific.”

India, the U.S., Australia and Japan are members of the Indo-Pacific strategic alliance known as the Quad, which has repeatedly accused China of flexing its military muscles in the South China Sea and aggressively pushing its maritime territorial claims. The navies of the four countries regularly hold drills seen as part of an initiative to counter China’s growing assertiveness in the Pacific.

Beijing maintains that its military is purely defensive to protect what it says are its sovereign rights, and calls the Quad an attempt to contain its economic growth and influence.

For Indian naval planners, the South China Sea remains a top concern, with about 60% of India’s cargo passing through shipping lanes in the Beijing-dominated region.

Chawla said India doesn't have “strength to project power into the South China Sea right now” because of the vast Chinese maritime assets there.

“Frankly, if it comes to a shooting war, India does not really have the capability and Quad does not have the mandate," he said. "You know, it’s not a NATO-like alliance yet.”

Translation

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多年來，中國在印度洋建立了自己的影響力，這是其能源供應的關鍵路線。 它擁有世界上艦艇數量最多的海軍，是印度海軍規模的三倍多。 中國還擁有一支由大型海岸警衛隊船隻組成的強大艦隊，以及由漁船組成的所謂海上民兵部隊，與海岸警衛隊合作維護南海的領土主張。

北京主要透過與印度鄰國（包括孟加拉、斯里蘭卡和最近的馬爾代夫）的基礎設施協議加深了在印度洋的參與。

前印度軍官、現戰略專家 D.S. Hooda 中將說: 「中國人正在廣闊的印度洋中尋找越來越多海軍基地」。 「看到這一點，印度別無選擇，只能繼續建立自己的海軍基地」。

馬爾代夫政府上週批准一艘中國科考船停靠在其港口。 由於印度擔心中國船隻可能被用來監視該地區，類似的中國船隻曾在 2022 年和 2023 年停靠在斯里蘭卡港口。 印度的擔憂導致斯里蘭卡今年稍早宣布暫停外國科考船進入其水域一年。

專家表示，與中國日益激烈的競爭促使印度購買更先進的艦艇、潛水艇和飛機，並加強對技術和基礎設施的投資。 印度迅速成長的國防預算去年達到 726 億美元，海軍所佔份額已從 14% 左右增至 19%。 印度陸軍傳統上獲得了軍事預算的最大份額。

海軍也透過參與地區及區外其他國家的聯合演習以建立了戰略夥伴關係。

卡內基基金會印度洋倡議的負責人 Baruah 表示，「德里的戰略思維需要以海洋為導向，不僅作為應對危機的一種選擇，而且以印度-太平洋地區作為推進印度最緊迫的地緣政治和戰略的優先事項」。

印度、美國、澳洲和日本都是印太戰略聯盟「四方會談」的成員，該聯盟多次指責中國在南海展示軍事實力，並積極推進其海洋領土主張。 這四個國家的海軍定期舉行演習，被視為對抗中國在太平洋地區日益強勢的舉措的一部分。

北京堅稱其軍隊純粹是防禦性的，以保護其所謂的主權，並稱四方會談是遏制其經濟成長和影響力的企圖。

對印度海軍規劃者來說，南中國海仍然是他們最關心的問題，印度約 60% 的貨物都要經過北京主導地區的航道。

Chawla 表示，由於中國在南海擁有大量海上資產，印度「目前沒有實力向南海投射力量」。

他說： “坦率地說，如果要爆發一場戰爭，印度確實沒有能力，四方會談也沒有這授權。你知道，它還未是一個類似北約的聯盟。”

So, India is beginning to flex its naval power in international waters in the Middle East. Yet, for Indian naval planners, the South China Sea remains a top concern, with about 60% of India’s cargo passing through shipping lanes in the Beijing-dominated region. Let’s wait and see how India will invest in its naval power.

印度隨著與中國的競爭加劇，開始展示其海軍力量 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

India begins to flex its naval power as competition with China grows (1/2)

AIJAZ HUSSAIN

Thu, February 1, 2024 at 7:26 p.m. PST·5 min read

SRINAGAR, India (AP) — For decades, India has focused its defense policy on its land borders with rivals Pakistan and China. Now, as its global ambitions expand, it is beginning to flex its naval power in international waters, including anti-piracy patrols and a widely publicized deployment close to the Red Sea to help protect ships from attacks during Israel’s war with Hamas.

India sent three guided missile destroyers and reconnaissance aircraft in November when Yemen-based Houthi rebels began targeting ships in solidarity with Hamas, causing disruptions in a key trading route that handles about 12% of global trade.

The deployment highlights the country as a “proactive contributor” to international maritime stability, said Vice Adm. Anil Kumar Chawla, who retired in 2021 as head of India’s southern naval command.

“We are not doing it only out of altruism. Unless you are a maritime power you can never aspire to be a global power,” Chawla said. India, already a regional power, is positioning itself “as a global player today, an upcoming global power,” he said.

India is widely publicizing the deployments, signaling its desire to assume a wider responsibility in maritime security to the world and its growing maritime ambitions to regional rival China.

“It is a message to China that, look, we can deploy such a large force here. This is our backyard. Though we don’t own it, but we are probably the most capable and responsible resident naval power,” Chawla said.

The Indian navy has helped at least four ships, three of which were attacked by Houthi rebels and another that Washington blamed on Iran, a charge denied by Tehran. It has also conducted several anti-piracy missions.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels have targeted dozens of ships in the Red Sea, saying they are seeking a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip. The U.S. and its allies have responded with multiple rounds of bombings of rebel positions. India has not joined the U.S.-led force battling the Houthis.

On Jan. 26, the Indian guided missile destroyer INS Visakhapatnam assisted the crew of a Marshall Islands-flagged tanker in fighting a fire after it was hit by a missile in the Gulf of Aden. About 10 days earlier, the Visakhapatnam responded to a distress call by the U.S.-owned Genco Picardy merchant vessel following a drone attack in the same waters.

“Maritime security has not been a strong pillar of India’s foreign policy engagements in a way we are beginning to see now,” said Darshana M. Baruah, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “China is a factor in this.”

The rivals are already locked in a military standoff along their disputed border high in the mountains.

(to be continued)

Translation

印度斯利那加（美聯社）- 幾十年來，印度一直將國防政策的重點放在與競爭對手巴基斯坦和中國的陸地邊界。 現在，隨著其全球野心的擴大，它開始在國際水域展示其海軍力量，包括反海盜巡邏以及在紅海附近廣泛宣傳的部署，以幫助保護船隻在以色列與哈馬斯的戰爭期間免受襲擊。

去年 11 月，當也門胡塞武裝開始針對船隻以聲援哈馬斯，導致一條佔全球貿易約 12% 的重要貿易路線中斷時, 印度派遣了三艘飛彈驅逐艦和偵察機。

2021 年退休的印度南部海軍司令部司令 Anil Kumar Chawla 中將表示，這次部署凸顯了印度作為國際海上穩定的「積極貢獻者」。

Chawla 說: 「我們這樣做不僅僅是出於利他主義。你永遠無法去渴望成為全球強國除非你是海上強國」。他說印度已經是一個地區大國，正在將自己定位為「當今的全球參與者，即將成為的全球大國」。

印度正在廣泛宣傳這些部署，顯示其希望在世界海上安全方面承擔更廣泛的責任，以及向作為地區競爭的中國, 顯示增長中的海上雄心。

Chawla 說: 「這是向中國傳達的訊息，看看, 我們可以在這裡部署如此龐大的部隊。 這是我們的後院。 雖然我們不擁有它，但我們可能是最有能力、最負責任的常駐海軍力量」。

印度海軍已經幫助了至少四艘船隻，其中三艘遭到胡塞叛軍的襲擊，另一艘則被華盛頓歸咎於伊朗，但德黑蘭否認了這項指控。 印度海軍還執行了多次反海盜任務。

伊朗支持的胡塞叛軍襲擊了紅海的數十艘船隻，自稱他們正在爭取加沙走廊停火。 美國及其盟國對叛軍陣地進行了多輪轟炸作為回應。 印度沒有加入美國領導的打擊胡塞武裝的部隊。

1月26日，一艘懸掛馬紹爾群島國旗的油輪在亞丁灣被飛彈擊中後起火, 印度飛彈驅逐艦 INS Visakhapatnam 號協助其船員。 大約10天前，Visakhapatnam 號回應了美國擁有的 Genco Picardy商船在同一水域遭遇無人機襲擊後發出的求救訊號。

卡內基國際和平基金會研究員 Darshana M. Baruah 表示：「有別於我們現在開始看到的情況，一向以來海上安全並未成為印度外交政策的強有力支柱」。「這変化有中國因素」。

雙方軍事對峙已經在高山上有爭議的邊境地區出現。

（待續）

在 8 公尺深的坑中發現的骨頭可能會「從根本上改變」歐洲人類的歷史 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Bones found in 8-meter-deep pit may ‘fundamentally change’ history of humans in Europe (2/2)

Katie Hunt, CNN

Thu, February 1, 2024 at 12:53 p.m. PST·5 min read

(continue)

However, the human remains weren’t immediately identifiable among the hundreds of bone fragments unearthed during the six-year dig. It was only later the team knew definitively that the layers of sediment that contained the LRJ stone tools also included humans remains.

The researchers used proteins extracted from bone fragments to identify animal and human remains they found, a technique known as palaeoproteomics. It allows scientists to identify human and animal bones when their form is unclear or uncertain. Using the same technique, the team also managed to identify human remains among bones excavated during the 1930s.

However, the protein analysis was only able to identify the bones as belonging to hominins — a category that includes Homo sapiens and Homo neanderthalensis, or Neanderthals. To distinguish between the two, the team was able to extract fragments of ancient DNA from the 13 human fossils they identified.

“We confirmed that the skeletal fragments belonged to Homo sapiens,” said study coauthor Elena Zavala, a postdoctoral research fellow at the University of California, Berkeley, and Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, in the release.

“Interestingly, several fragments shared the same mitochondrial DNA sequences — even fragments from different excavations,” Zavala added. “This indicates that the fragments belonged to the same individual or were maternal relatives, linking these new finds with the ones from decades ago.”

Unexpected adaptability

Radiocarbon dating of the fossils and other artifacts in the cave suggested that these early humans were living there from around 45,000 years ago, making them the earliest Homo sapiens known to have inhabited northwestern Europe.

The region would have had a dramatically different climate then, with conditions typical of steppe tundra such as that found in present-day Siberia. The dig revealed the presence of reindeer, cave bears, woolly rhinoceroses and horses. The researchers also concluded that hibernating cave bears and denning hyenas primarily used the cave, which had only periodic human presence.

“This shows that even these earlier groups of Homo sapiens dispersing across Eurasia already had some capacity to adapt to such harsh climatic conditions,” said coauthor Sarah Pederzani, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of La Laguna in Spain, who led the paleoclimate study of the site. “Until recently, it was thought that resilience to cold-climate conditions did not appear until several thousand years later, so this is a fascinating and surprising result,” she said, according to the news release.

William E. Banks, a researcher at the University of Bordeaux in France, said the studies showed how new methods are allowing archaeologists to examine sites in unprecedented detail, improving the ability to pinpoint when a site was occupied.

The “discoveries provide another important piece of the puzzle of this culturally and demographically complex period in Europe,” Banks noted in a commentary published alongside the studies. However, Banks, who wasn’t involved in the research, added that archaeologists “must be careful not to generalize findings from one or two sites.”

He noted that recent discoveries suggested Neanderthals were more culturally and cognitively complex than popular stereotypes suggest and that archaeologists should “not necessarily assume” in all cases that modern humans made more complex styles of stone tools from that pivotal period before Neanderthals disappeared.

Translation

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然而，在為期六年的挖掘過程中出土的數百塊骨頭碎片中，無法立即辨認出人類遺骸。 直到後來，研究團隊才明確知道，含有 LRJ 石器的沉積物層還包括人類遺骸。

研究人員利用從骨頭碎片中提取的蛋白質來識別他們發現的動物和人類遺骸，這種技術被稱為古蛋白質組學。 當人類和動物的骨骼形狀不清楚或不確定時，它使科學家能夠識別它們。 使用相同的技術，該團隊還成功地在 20 世紀 30 年代挖掘的骨頭中識別出人類遺骸。

然而，蛋白質分析只能辨識出這些骨頭屬於別包括智人的古人類和尼安德塔人，或稱為尼人。 為了區分兩者，研究小組成功從他們鑑定的 13 塊人類化石中提取了古代 DNA 碎段。

研究合著者、加州大學柏克萊分校和 Max Planck 進化人類學研究所的博士後研究員 Elena Zavala 在新聞稿中說: 「我們證實這些骨骼碎片屬於智人」。

Zavala 補充道: 「有趣的是，幾個碎段共享相同的粒線體 DNA 序列 - 甚至是來自不同發掘的碎段」。 「這表明這些碎段屬於同一個人或者是母系親屬，這些新發現聯繫起幾到幾十年前的碎段」。

意想不到的適應性

對洞穴中的化石和其他文物進行的放射性碳測年表明，這些早期人類在大約 45,000 年前就生活在那裡，使他們成為已知居住在歐洲西北部的最早的智人。

那時該地區有截然不同的氣候，具有典型的草原苔原條件，例如今天的西伯利亞。 挖掘工作發現了馴鹿、洞熊、披毛犀和馬的存在。 研究人員也得出結論，冬眠的洞熊和穴居鬣狗主要使用這個洞穴，而那裡只有週期性的人類出現。

共同作者、並領導了這掘挖關於古氣候研究的西班牙 La Laguna 大學的博士後研究員 Sarah Pederzani說: 「這表明，即使是這些分佈在歐亞大陸的早期智人群體也已經具備了一定的能力來適應如此惡劣的氣候條件」。 據新聞稿稱她說: 「直到最近，人們還認為對寒冷氣候條件的適應能力要到幾千年後才出現，所以這是一個令人著迷及驚訝的結果」。

法國 Bordeaux 大學的研究員 William E. Banks 表示，這些研究表明，新方法如何讓考古學家能夠以前所未有的細節檢查遺址，從而提高查明遺址何時被佔用的能力。

Banks 在與這些研究一起發表的評論中指出，「這些發現為歐洲這個文化和人口複雜時期的拼圖提供了一個重要的部份拼圖」。 然而，沒有參與這項研究的 Banks 補充說，考古學家 “必須小心，不要將一兩個遺址的發現泛化出去。”

他指出，最近的發現表明，尼安德塔人在文化和認知上比普遍化的定型更加複雜，考古學家「不一定要假設」在所有情況之下，現代人類在尼安德塔人消失之前的那個關鍵時期已製造了更複雜的石器。

       So, microscopic fragments of protein and DNA recovered from bones discovered in 8-meter-deep cave dirt revealed Neanderthals and humans had likely lived alongside one another in northern Europe as far back as 45,000 years ago. Yet some archaeologists have pointed out that we must be careful not to over generalize findings from one or two sites to say that all cases would be the same.

Note:

During the Last Glacial Maximum, the mammoth steppe, also known as steppe-tundra (草原苔原), was once the Earth's most extensive biome. It stretched east-to-west, from the Iberian Peninsula in the west of Europe, across Eurasia to North America, through Beringia (what is today Alaska) and Canada; from north-to-south, the steppe reached from the arctic islands southward to China. The mammoth steppe was cold and dry, and relatively featureless, though topography and geography varied considerably throughout. The steppe is known to be flat and expansive grassland. The vegetation is dominated by palatable, high-productivity grasses, herbs and willow shrubs. (Wikipedia)

在8公尺深坑中發現的骨頭可能會「從根本上改變」歐洲人類的歷史 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo news on-line reported the following:

Bones found in 8-meter-deep pit may ‘fundamentally change’ history of humans in Europe (1/2)

Katie Hunt, CNN

Thu, February 1, 2024 at 12:53 p.m. PST·5 min read

Microscopic fragments of protein and DNA recovered from bones discovered in 8-meter-deep cave dirt have revealed Neanderthals and humans likely lived alongside one another in northern Europe as far back as 45,000 years ago.

The genetic analysis of the fossils, which were found in a cave near the town of Ranis in eastern Germany, suggested that modern humans were the makers of distinctive, leaf-shaped stone tools that archaeologists once believed were crafted by Neanderthals, the heavily built hominins who lived in Europe until about 40,000 years ago.

Modern humans, or homo sapiens, weren’t previously known to have lived as far north as the region where the tools were made.

“The Ranis cave site provides evidence for the first dispersal of Homo sapiens across the higher latitudes of Europe. It turns out that stone artifacts that were thought to be produced by Neanderthals were, in fact, part of the early Homo sapiens toolkit,” said research author Jean-Jacques Hublin, a professor at the Collège de France in Paris and emeritus director at the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig, Germany, in a news release.

“This fundamentally changes our previous knowledge about the period: Homo sapiens reached northwestern Europe long before Neanderthal disappearance in southwestern Europe.”

The discovery means the two groups, who once interbred and left most humans alive today with traces of Neanderthal DNA, may have overlapped for several thousand years. It also shows that Homo sapiens, our species, crossed the Alps into the cold climes of northern and central Europe earlier than thought.

Three studies detailing the discoveries and lab analysis were published Wednesday in the journals Nature and Nature Ecology & Evolution.

Earliest Homo sapiens fossils found north of the Alps

The style of stone tool found at Ranis has also been discovered elsewhere across Europe, from Moravia and eastern Poland to the British Isles, according to the studies. Archaeologists call the tool style Lincombian-Ranisian-Jerzmanowician, or LRJ, in reference to the places where it was first identified.

To identify who made the artifacts, the team excavated Ilsenhöhle cave near Ranis from 2016 to 2022. When the cave was first excavated in the 1930s, only the tools were found and analyzed. This time around the team was able to dig deeper and more systematically, ultimately uncovering human fossils there for the first time.

“The challenge was to excavate the full 8-metre sequence from top to bottom, hoping that some deposits were left from the 1930s excavation,” said study coauthor Marcel Weiss, a researcher at Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg and the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, in a statement. “We were fortunate to find a 1.7 metre thick rock the previous excavators did not get past. After removing that rock by hand, we finally uncovered the LRJ layers and even found human fossils.”

(to be continued)

Translation

從 8 公尺深的洞穴泥土中發現的骨頭中得到的微細殘破蛋白質和 DNA 表明，尼安德塔人和人類很可能早在 45,000 年前就在北歐生活在一起。

這些化石是在德國東部 Ranis 鎮附近的一個洞穴中發現的，對這些化石中的基因分析表明，現代人類是獨特的葉形石器的製造者，考古學家曾一度認為這些石器是由尼安德塔人製作的，尼安德塔人是體型粗大的古人類。直到大約四萬年前，他們一直生活在歐洲。

人們並不知道現代人類（或智人）先前曾生活在這般北部有製造出工具的地方。

巴黎法蘭西學院教授、兼德國萊比錫 Max Planck進化人類學研究所的名譽主任 Jean-Jacques Hublin, 作為該研究的作者在新聞稿中說: 「Ranis洞穴遺址首次為智人曾在歐洲高緯度地區擴散提供了證據。 事實證明，被認為是由尼安德塔人製造的石製品實際上是早期智人工具包的一部分」。

「這從根本上改變了我們之前對該時期的認識：智人早在尼安德塔人在歐洲西南部消失之前就到達了西北歐」。

這項發現意味著，這兩個群體可能已經重疊了數千年，這兩個群體曾經雜交，並為今天的大多數人類留下了尼安塔特人的 DNA 痕跡。 這也表明，我們智人這個物種,比想像中更早穿越阿爾卑斯山進入北歐和中歐有特定天氣變化的地方。

三項詳細介紹這些發現和實驗室分析的研究週三在《自然》和《自然生態與演化》雜誌上發表。

阿爾卑斯山以北發現最早的智人化石

研究顯示，歐洲其他地方,從摩拉維亞、波蘭東部到不列顛群島，也發現了 Ranis 的石器風格。 考古學家將這種工具風格稱為 Lincombian-Ranisian-Jerzmanowician（LRJ），以紀念其首次發現的地點。

為了找出這些文物的製作者，該團隊於 2016 年至 2022 年挖掘了 Ranis 附近的 Ilsenhöhle 洞穴。該洞穴於 1930 年代首次挖掘時，僅發現並分析了工具。 這一次，團隊能夠更深入、更有系統地挖掘，最終在那裡首次發現了人類化石。

研究共同作者、弗里德里希-亞歷山大埃 爾蘭根-紐倫堡大學和 Max Planck 進化人類學研究所的研究員 Marcel Weiss 在一份聲明中表示：「我們面臨的挑戰是從上到下挖掘全部8 公尺的序列，希望能在1930 年代的挖掘後仍留下一些遺物」。 「我們很幸運地發現了一塊 1.7 公尺厚的岩石，以前的挖土機沒有穿過。 在手工清除岩石後，我們終於發現了 LRJ 層，甚至發現了人類化石」。

（待續）

中國令人難以置信的鋼鐵暴跌指向供應過剩的困境

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China’s Implausible Steel Plunge Points to Oversupply Dilemma

Bloomberg News

Mon, January 29, 2024 at 5:45 p.m. PST·5 min read

(Bloomberg) -- Did China’s steel industry really get within a whisker of meeting Beijing’s production cap last year?

If official data are to be believed, 2023 output ended up barely changed at just over 1 billion tons, thanks to an unprecedented 15% year-on-year plunge in output in the last month to a six-year low. In data going back to 2004, it’s only the second time that December has been lower than November, and never by that margin.

There are other indications that what seems too good to be true often is. Steel analysts, who declined to be named as the matter is sensitive, are among those pointing to conflicting data: iron ore imports that hit a record in 2023 without disturbing inventory levels, rising rebar stockpiles, and increased output of steel products.

China’s official figures are frequently viewed as conveniently close to political targets and few challenges are as thorny as curbing oversupply in the vast and fragmented steel sector. But stir in President Xi Jinping’s climate goals and the need to preserve employment in an industry that was loss-making for much of 2023, and steelmakers are left juggling an often conflicting set of incentives.

“China’s highly competitive steel mills will probably accept operating losses rather than taking on the much larger cost of full closure,” said Tom Price, head of commodities strategy at Liberum Capital Ltd. in London. “Furthermore, an incentive exists for the mills to under-report production, to avoid government sanctions.”

The order from the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planning agency, to reduce or maintain production at the previous year’s level has been in place since 2021 to curb overcapacity and the industry’s carbon footprint. The general view in the final months of 2023 was that steelmakers hadn’t cut enough to get even close to the annual cap.

The China Iron and Steel Association, which represents the biggest steelmakers, declined to comment.

The sensitivity around steel extends beyond its obvious importance as a key building block of the economy. China’s by far the world’s biggest supplier and producing the alloy is highly polluting and carbon intensive, accounting for about 15% of the country’s total emissions. Reducing those is crucial to meeting President Xi Jinping’s climate goals. Meanwhile, China’s exports, which hit a seven-year high in 2023, have drawn scrutiny over the years amid accusations that Beijing is prone to dumping its surplus abroad to the detriment of rivals.

Those rising exports are just one sign of how dismal domestic conditions have created a glut of steel in China, where demand is heavily keyed to the crisis-ridden property market.

Limited Stimulus

China’s commodities sector has found creative ways in the past to ensure it hits its targets. Overseas coal purchases recorded in the last month of 2019 were an astonishingly low 2.8 million tons after ports delayed cargo clearances, allowing importers to creep under the annual limit at the time of 300 million tons. In January 2020, imports ballooned to over 43 million tons as the excess shipments were released, setting a monthly record that stood for almost four years.

Steel mills may be hoping that their excess gets soaked up once Beijing is forced to unleash massive infrastructure spending to revive growth. But that’s a big ‘if’ given the parlous state of local government finances, and the authorities have so far been content to offer only limited stimulus to sustain the economy. China’s habit of combining January and February data to smooth out inconsistencies due to an irregular lunar new year could also be an opportunity to mask any surplus.

Officials haven’t said if they’re looking at whether the steel industry fudged its numbers. Neither the statistics bureau nor the NDRC responded to requests for comment. But Beijing has launched a new crackdown on statistical fraud, elevating the issue by making the Communist Party’s disciplinary body responsible for punishing manipulation.

And the government’s curbs on production aren’t going away.

“It is likely that another cap on output will be issued by Chinese policymakers to curb emissions this year,” Capital Economics Ltd. said in a note.

Translation

（彭博）—去年中國鋼鐵業真的已經差不多達到北京的產量上限了嗎？

如果官方數據是可信的話，2023 年產量最終幾乎沒有變化，只略高於 10 億噸，這要歸功於上個月產量同比前所未有地暴跌 15% 至六年來的低點。 從 2004 年以來的數據來看，這只是 12 月第二次低於 11 月，而且從來沒有如此的幅度。

還有其他跡象表明，看似好得令人難以置信的事情往往是難以相信的。 由於此事敏感而拒絕透露姓名的鋼鐵分析師也指出了相互矛盾的數據：2023 年鐵礦石進口量創下歷史新高，但並未影響庫存水平，增加鋼筋網庫存，增加鋼鐵產品產量。

中國的官方數據常常被認為很接近政治目標，而很少有比去遏制龐大而分散的鋼鐵業的供應過剩更的挑戰加棘手。 但隨著習近平主席的氣候目標, 和保住2023年大部分時間虧損的行業的就業需要，鋼鐵製造商不得不在一系列經常相互衝突的激勵措施之間作出周旋。

倫敦 Liberum Capital Ltd. 大宗商品策略主管 Tom Price 表示： “有高度競爭激力的中國的鋼廠可能會接受經營虧損，而去避開承擔全面關閉的更大代價。” “此外，工廠有動機低報產量以避免政府的制裁。”

中國最高經濟規劃機構國家發展和改革委員會自 2021 年起就下令減少產量或維持上年水平，以遏制產能過剩和產業碳足跡。 2023 年最後幾個月的普遍觀點是，鋼鐵製造商的減產力度還不足以接近年度上限。

代表最大鋼鐵製造商的中國鋼鐵工業協會拒絕置評。

圍繞鋼鐵的敏感性, 超出了其作為經濟關鍵組成部分的明顯重要性。 中國是迄今為止世界上最大的供應國，其生產的合金污染嚴重，碳排放量大，約佔全國總排放量的15%。 減少這些對於實現習近平主席的氣候目標至關重要。 同時，中國的出口在2023年創下七年來的新高，因為有人指責北京傾向於將其過剩供應傾銷到海外，損害競爭對手的利益, 這多年來一直受到密切關注，。

這些出口上升只是國內情況嚴峻造成中國鋼鐵過剩的一個跡象，而中國的鋼鐵需求在很大程度上取決於飽受危機困擾的房地產市場。

有限度的刺激

中國的大宗商品產業過去已經找到了有創意的方法來確保實現目標。 由於港口延遲貨物清關，2019年最後一個月的海外煤炭採購量驚人地低至280萬噸，使得進口商的採購量低於了當時3億噸的年度限額。 2020年1月，隨著超額貨量的釋放，進口量激增至超過4300萬噸，創下近四年來的月度紀錄。

鋼廠可能希望，如果當北京一旦被迫開放大規模基礎設施支出以重振經濟成長時，其過剩產能就能被吸收。 但鑑於地方政府財政狀況不佳，這只是一個很大的 “如果” ，而且當局迄今為止只滿足於僅提供有限的刺激措施來維持經濟。 中國習慣將一月和二月的數據合併起來，以消除農曆新年不規則造成的不一致，這也可能是掩蓋過剩的機會。

官員尚未表示他們是否正在調查鋼鐵業是否捏造了數據。 國家統計局和國家發展委員會均未回應置評請求。 但北京發起了新一輪打擊統計造假的行動，令共產黨的紀檢機構負責懲罰操縱的行為提升了這問題。

政府對生產的限制也不會消失。

Capital Economics Ltd. 在一份報告中表示： “中國政策制定者今年可能會再次出台產量上限，以抑制排放。”

So, China’s intention to reduce or maintain steel production at the previous year’s level has been in place since 2021. The general view in the final months of 2023 was that steelmakers hadn’t cut enough to get close to the annual cap set by the authority. Steel mills may be hoping that their excess production can be soaked up once Beijing is forced to unleash massive infrastructure spending to revive growth. Officials haven’t said if they’re looking at whether the steel industry is manipulating the numbers, yet I think the steel industry in China may have a hard time ahead.

China to strengthen patriotic education; new law goes into effect on New Year's Day (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

中国、愛国教育を強化へ　元日に新法施行 (2/2)

2024.01.28 Sun posted at 11:30 JST

(continue)

あらゆる階層に向けた愛国主義カリキュラム

新法の下では、科学者からアスリートまで、全ての専門家は、「国に栄光をもたらす愛国的感情や行動」を国民に啓蒙（けいもう）するよう促されている。

また地方当局は、博物館や中国の伝統的な祭りといった文化財を活用して「国と家族への思いを高める」こと、そしてニュース報道、放送、映画を通じて愛国主義教育を強化することが義務付けられている。

さらに宗教団体も、「教団職員や信者たちの愛国的感情や法の支配への意識を高める」ことが求められている。中国政府は、宗教の「中国化」を推進するとともに、宗教に対する規制を強化しており、この規定はそうした動きとも一致する。

中国政府は、今回の新法制定以前にもさまざまな取り組みを行っており、１６年には教育部が、学校教育の全ての段階、側面において全般的な愛国主義教育の導入を義務付ける命令を出した。この命令が、今回の新しい統一法の主要な部分を担っている。

また、子どもから大人まで、全ての人々が「新しい社会主義思想を学べる」スマートフォン用アプリも開発され、９０００万人の共産党員全員と、多くの国有企業の従業員がアプリの使用を義務付けられた。

また新法では、「あらゆる教育機関の全ての学年において」教科や教材に愛国主義教育を盛り込み、さらに家庭でも親が子どもたちに愛国的な活動に参加するよう促すことが義務付けられている。

「これは習氏の権力強化と関係している。習氏は、早い段階から愛国主義教育を始めたいと考えている」と語るのはシンガポール国立大学リークアンユー公共政策大学院のアルフレッド・ウー准教授だ。

ウー氏は、今回の新法制定の目的は二つあり、一つは幼少期から習氏への忠誠心を育むこと、そしてもう一つは、過去１０年の好景気を経て、今、中国政府は習氏の権力の強化に重点を置いているというメッセージをより多くの人々に発信することにある、と指摘する。

また同新法は、博物館や図書館といった文化施設を愛国主義教育の活動の場に変えること、また観光地を「愛国心をかき立てる」場所に変えること、の２点も義務付けている。

各学校に対しても、生徒たちがこれらの場所を訪れる遠足や修学旅行を計画するよう求めており、当局者はこれらの旅行を「政治とイデオロギーの歩く教室」と呼んでいる。

中国では過去にもこのような遠足や修学旅行は一般的に行われていたが、今回の新法の制定により、各学校にそのような旅行を計画する法的義務が課されることになった。

中国の非愛国的行動の禁止を目的とした法律は他にもあり、例えば、国旗の冒とくや兵士への侮辱も法律で禁止されている。また最近の習政権の下では、政府に異議を唱えただけで（例えば、ネット上で党の路線に反するコメントをしただけでも）当局に目を付けられる。

しかし、今回施行された新法は、現行法では処罰の対象ではない行為に対する罰則の導入を示唆しているようだ、とニュージーランドのビクトリア大学ウェリントン校の上級法律講師、葉瑞萍氏は指摘する。

例えば、同法は「侵略、戦争、虐殺を擁護、賛美、否定する行動」や「愛国主義教育施設を損なう行為」は処罰の対象となりうると定めているという。

Translation

(continue)

Patriotism curriculum for all walks of life

Under the new law, all professionals, from scientists to athletes, would be encouraged to educate the public on "patriotic sentiments and actions that bring glory to the country."

Local authorities would be mandatorily required to use cultural assets such as museums and traditional Chinese festivals to "enhance feelings of country and family," and to strengthen patriotic education through news reports, broadcasts and films.

Furthermore, religious organizations would also be required to "enhance patriotic sentiments and awareness of the rule of law among their staff and members." The Chinese government was promoting the ``Sinicization'' of religion and tightening restrictions on religion, and these rules would be consistent with such a movement.

The Chinese government had undertaken various initiatives prior to enacting this new law, and in 2016 the Ministry of Education issued an order requiring the introduction of general patriotic education at all stages and aspects of school education. This order would be the main part of a new unified law.

Also, a smartphone app would be developed to allow everyone, from children to adults, to "learn new socialist ideas," and all 90 million Communist Party members and employees of many state-owned enterprises would be required to use the app.

The new law also required patriotic education to be included in subjects and teaching materials "in all academic years and in all educational institutions," and at home for parents to encourage their children to participate in patriotic activities.

Alfred Wu, associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore said "This has to do with Mr. Xi's consolidation of power. Mr. Xi wants to start patriotic education from an early stage."

Mr. Wu said that the purpose of enacting this new law would be twofold: one would be to foster loyalty to Mr. Xi from childhood, and the other would be that after the economic boom of the past 10 years, now the Chinese government was aiming at sending a message to more people that the government was focused on consolidating the power of Mr. Xi.

Also, in the same new law two points were made mandatory, cultural facilities such as museums and libraries to be transformed into places for patriotic education activities, and tourist spots to be transformed into places that would "stir up patriotism."

Schools were also asked to plan field trips and school trips for students to visit these locations, which officials called "walking classrooms of politics and ideology."

Although such field trips and school trips had been common in China in the past, the new law placeed a legal obligation on each school to plan such trips.

There were other existing laws aimed at prohibiting unpatriotic behavior in China, such as desecrating the national flag and insulting soldiers. Furthermore, under the recent Xi administration, even just to challenge the government (for example, making comments online that go against the party line) might draw the attention of the authorities.

Yet, the new law appeared to introduce penalties for actions that were not punishable under current law, said Ruiping Ye (葉瑞萍), a senior law lecturer at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand.

For example, the law stipulated that "acts that advocate, glorify, or deny aggression, war, or genocide" or "acts that damage patriotic educational facilities" could be punishable.

              So, CCP is further enhancing its grip over the thinking and behavior of the people. Indeed, CCP has been doing all kinds of control in the past and I am interested to know why there is a new need to double down it. Is CCP feeling some danger, due to the deteriorating economic situation in China, or preparing a new level of argument with the US over the Taiwan Strait? Or, preparing to escalate the dispute with India, the Philippines and Vietnam over the sovereignty issues?

China to strengthen patriotic education; new law goes into effect on New Year's Day (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

中国、愛国教育を強化へ　元日に新法施行 (1/2)

2024.01.28 Sun posted at 11:30 JST

香港（ＣＮＮ） １２月のある日、中国南東部の都市、福州の中学生たちが、習近平（シーチンピン）国家主席の思想を学ぶために地元の公園に集まった。

生徒たちは、「政治とイデオロギーの歩く教室」と書かれた赤い横断幕を広げ、「悟り」を求めて、２０２１年に習氏が地元を訪問した際に歩いた道をたどった、と国営メディアは報じた。

また中国北部の沿岸都市、天津では、若者のグループが要塞（ようさい）を見学し、「外国からの攻撃に立ち向かった中国人たちの悲劇的な歴史」に思いをはせた。

これらの活動は、近年、中国が進める国家主義教育の強化の一環であり、今月１日には愛国主義教育の強化策を盛り込んだ新法「愛国主義教育法」が施行された。

この新法は、「国家の結束強化」を目的とし、幼い子どもから、あらゆる分野の労働者や専門家に至るまで、全国民の仕事や学習に国家と中国共産党への愛を盛り込むことを義務付けている。

中国政府の報道官は先月、同新法は「思想の統一」および「強い国づくりと国家の活性化という偉大な目標を達成するために国民の力を結集すること」を目的としている、と述べた。

中国の国民が国や共産党を愛するよう強要されるのは今に始まったことではない。中国では、約７５年前の建国以来、愛国主義やプロパガンダが教育、企業文化、生活の重要な一部となっている。

中国の愛国主義は、ここ数十年で最も独裁的な指導者である習氏の下で一層強化されてきた。

習氏は、国を「活性化」し、世界で強力かつ重要な地位を確立すると公約するとともに、西側諸国との緊張が高まる中、攻撃的な「戦狼外交」を奨励してきた。

この極端な国家主義はソーシャルメディアにも浸透しており、ライブ配信者、コメディアンから海外のブランドに至るまで、中国を侮辱したとみなされると激しい反発や不買運動に見舞われる。

習氏は以前から、国民生活のあらゆる面で共産党の存在感を高める取り組みを進めており、今回の新法制定もその延長線上にある。

しかし、中国では数年に及ぶ厳格なゼロコロナ政策の結果、２０２２年に若者たちによる前例のない規模の抗議行動が勃発。また現在も経済は低迷し、若者の失業率は過去最高を記録した。このような状況下で新法が施行され、国民の不満は今後さらに高まる恐れもある。

この点、専門家らは、中国政府はこの新しい法的枠組みについて、今後さまざまな課題が予想される中、社会の安定を確保するために、国民の愛国主義を駆り立て、力を結集するための手段と見ている可能性もあると指摘する。

中国は長年、国民が国のビジョンを一種の「社会契約」のように受け入れてくれることを当てにしてきたが、今後数年間は大きな困難に直面するだろう、と語るのは、英ノッティンガム大学の准教授で中国政治が専門のジョナサン・サリバン氏だ。

サリバン氏は「景気の低迷が長引けば、国民を説得するのは困難になるだろう（中略）中国政府は、政治的に正しい考え方を完全に確立し、共産党の手段こそ中国にとっての唯一の手段であり、国を愛しているなら共産党も愛すべき、という考え方を確固たるものにしようと努めている」と述べた。

香港では１９年に民主化を求める大規模なデモが起きて以来、中国政府のこのメッセージが強調されてきた。

中国政府は、香港で新世代の愛国者たちを育成する意向を明確に示し、愛国主義教育の規則と、非愛国者とみなされた者が公職に立候補することを禁じる政治的制約を導入した。

また今年は１０月１日に中華人民共和国建国７５周年を迎える。当局者らは、愛国主義が間違いなく祝福され、国民からの反発の可能性を完全に排除しなくてはならないというプレッシャーにさらされることだろう。

(to be continued)

Translation

HONG KONG (CNN) - One day in December, middle school students in the southeastern Chinese city of Fuzhou gathered in a local park to learn about the ideology of President Xi Jinping.

State media reported that the students unfurled a red banner reading "Walking Classroom of Politics and Ideology" and retraced the path taken by Mr. Xi during his 2021 visit to the local area in search of "enlightenment”.

In Tianjin, a coastal city in northern China, a group of young people toured a fortress and reflected on the "tragic history of the Chinese people in the face of foreign attacks."

These activities were part of China's efforts to strengthen nationalist education in recent years, and on the 1st of this month, a new law, the ``Patriotic Education Law,'' was enacted that included measures to strengthen patriotic education.

The new law aimed to "strengthen national unity" and requires all citizens, from young children to workers and professionals in all fields, and it would be mandatory to incorporate love for the country and the Chinese Communist Party into their work and learning.

A Chinese government spokesperson said last month that the new law aimed to "unify ideas" and "mobilize the power of the people to achieve the great goals of building a strong nation and revitalizing the nation."

It was not new for Chinese citizens to be forced to love their country and the Communist Party. Patriotism and propaganda had been an important part of education, corporate culture and life in China since its founding some 75 years ago.

Chinese patriotism had further strengthened under Mr. Xi, the most authoritarian leader in decades.

Mr. Xi had vowed to "revitalize" the country and establish a strong and important position in the world, and had encouraged aggressive "wolf warrior diplomacy" amid rising tensions with the West.

This extreme nationalism had also permeated social media, where everything from live on-line streamers and comedians to foreign brands were met with intense backlash and boycotts when they were seen as insulting China.

Mr. Xi had been working for some time to increase the Communist Party's presence in all aspects of people's lives, and the enactment of this new law would be an extension of that effort.

However, as a result of several years of strict zero-coronavirus policies in China, an unprecedented scale of protests by young people broke out in China in 2022. Furthermore, the economy was currently in a slump, and the youth unemployment rate had reached an all-time high. With the new law coming into effect under these circumstances, there could be a risk that public dissatisfaction would further increase in the future.

In this regard, experts pointed out that the Chinese government possibly might use this new legal framework as a means to encourage people's patriotism and mobilize their forces in order to ensure social stability amid various challenges expected in the future.

China, which had long relied on its people to buy into its vision as a kind of "social contract," would face major challenges in the coming years, said Jonathan Sullivan who was the associate professor at the University of Nottingham in the UK. specialized in Chinese politics.

Sullivan said, `If the economic downturn continues, it will be difficult to convince the public...The Chinese government has fully established its politically correct thinking, and the Communist Party's way are China's only way, if you love your country, you should love the Communist Party, effort is made in striving to solidify the idea."

This message had been emphasized by the Chinese government ever since large-scale pro-democracy demonstrations broke out in Hong Kong in 2019.

The Chinese government had made clear its intention to cultivate a new generation of patriots in Hong Kong, introducing rules on patriotic education and political restrictions that barred those deemed unpatriotic from running for public office.

This year, October 1st marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. Officials would definitely bless patriotism, yet they could be exposed to pressure to completely eliminate the possibility of any backlash from the people.

(to be continued)

Note:

1.  According to the web-site of University of Nottingham, Dr Jonathan Sullivan is a China specialist and political scientist. He has worked extensively with various governments and government departments, including an ESRC funded collaborative project with the FCDO. Dr Sullivan has extensive engagement with the media, frequently writing and commenting on issues relating to China. (https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/politics/people/jonathan.sullivan)

由於綠色燃料熱潮，美國雞肉價格最終下跌 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

US chicken prices to fall at last thanks to green fuel boom (2/2)

Bloomberg - Gerson Freitas Jr.

Updated Sun, January 28, 2024 at 8:25 a.m. PST·5 min read

(continue)

The lower input costs will also be good news for meatpackers, who’ve seen a sharp drop in their margins. Although many meat companies raked in the profits during the pandemic as Americans working from home bought more food, the sector has since been slammed by a supply glut and high feed costs. US meat giant Tyson Foods Inc. has logged multiple quarters of negative operating margins for both its pork and chicken divisions and announced last year the shutdown of several chicken plants to help rein in costs. Federal probes into price-fixing and labor practices in the wider US chicken industry have only added to the sector’s headaches.

The broiler chicken industry will be able to capitalize on the lower feed costs before pork, given the shorter cycle of production. Beef prices are unlikely to be directly impacted, since cows aren’t generally fed soymeal, though lower prices for chicken and pork may eventually bring down beef, too, due to competition between the meats.

Feed costs — including soymeal and corn — make up roughly 60% of the expense of raising birds and hogs. Unlike producing ethanol from corn, which leaves much less byproduct meal, processing soybeans creates four tons of soymeal for every one ton of oil. And the country is going to be needing a whole lot of that oil. S&P Global sees domestic demand for renewable diesel reaching 4 billion gallons in 2030, up from around 2.7 billion last year.

As a result, the US will find itself with roughly 30% more US soybean meal production capacity in 2026 compared with 2022 levels, “which is quite bearish for soymeal,” Stephens Inc. analyst Ben Bienvenu said. Cheaper forward contracts indicate meal prices will trend lower through at least 2027.

“Refiners are going to be running for oil, and there’ll be that derivative meal,” said Hans Kabat, who runs the North American protein business for Cargill Inc., the co-owner of the country’s third-largest poultry producer. “That is a tailwind for the protein industry.”

Some of that extra soymeal will also be consumed abroad, as will any surplus meat produced as companies enjoying the lower feed costs ramp up output.

“We’re going to expand our pork and poultry industry and that’s what we’re going to export,” said Gregg Doud, former chief agriculture negotiator in the Office of US Trade Representative under the Donald Trump administration. “We’re going up the value chains.”

Translation

（繼續）

較低的投入成本對於利潤率急劇下降的肉品加工商來說也是個好消息。 儘管許多肉類公司在疫情期間因在家工作的美國人購買了更多食品而獲得了利潤，但此後該行業因供應過剩和飼料成本高而受到打擊。 美國肉類巨頭 Tyson Foods Inc. 的豬肉和雞肉部門的營業利潤率連續多個季度出現負數，並於去年宣布關閉幾家雞肉工廠，以幫助控制成本。 而聯邦政府對美國養雞業的價格壟斷和勞工行為進行調查，只會加劇該行業的麻煩。

由於生產週期較短，肉雞產業將能夠相比豬肉較能利用飼料成本的下跌好處。 牛肉價格不太可能受到直接影響，因為乳牛通常不餵食豆粕，但由於肉類之間的競爭，雞肉和豬肉價格的下降最終也可能導致牛肉價格下降。

飼料成本（包括豆粕和玉米）約佔飼養禽類和生豬費用的 60%。 與從玉米生產乙醇所留下很十分少的副產品不同，加工大豆每生產一噸油就會產生四噸豆粕。 該國將需要大量油。 標準普爾全球預計，到 2030 年，國內需求再生柴油將達到 40 億加侖，高於去年的約 27 億加侖。

因此，美國到 2026 年的豆粕產能將比 2022 年增加約 30%，Stephens Inc. 分析師 Ben Bienvenu 表示: 「這對豆粕來說相當利空」。 更便宜的遠期合約表明，至少到 2027 年，肉價格將呈下降趨勢。

Hans Kabat是負責 Cargill Inc. 北美蛋白質業務, 而這公司亦是美國第三大家禽生產商的共同所有者, 他表示： “煉油廠將會急於去獲得石油，從而衍生出豆粕” 。 “這對蛋白質行業來說是一股順風。”

其中一些額外的豆粕也將被國外購買，隨著飼料成本較低的公司提高產量而生產的任何剩餘肉類也將被國外購買。

特朗普政府時期的美國貿易代表辦公室前首席農業談判代表 Gregg Doud 表示： “我們將擴大豬肉和家禽產業，這就是我們要出口的產品” 。 “我們正在向價值鏈上游進發。”

              So, the Americans are likely to see a drop in meat prices thanks to the emerging renewable fuel industry. Processing the vast amounts of soybeans needed to make the plant-based jet fuel and diesel  will create a large amount of co-product soymeal used in animal feed. The cheap soymeal will lower the cost in feeding poultry and encourage the export of cheaper American chicken meat and pork.

Note:

Meal is a substance which has been crushed to make a rough powder, especially plant seeds crushed to make flour or for animal food, for example bone meal and soymeal.

由於綠色燃料熱潮，美國雞肉價格最終下跌 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

US chicken prices to fall at last thanks to green fuel boom (1/2)

Bloomberg - Gerson Freitas Jr.

Updated Sun, January 28, 2024 at 8:25 a.m. PST·5 min read

(Bloomberg) — After years of butcher-counter sticker shock, Americans are likely to see a drop in meat prices thanks to an unlikely ally: the emerging renewable fuel industry.

Processing the vast amounts of soybeans needed to make the plant-based jet fuel and diesel required to lower US emissions will also create mountains of co-product soymeal, widely used in animal feed. The less expensive it is for meatpackers to feed their animals, the more meat they’ll produce, ultimately trickling down to lower prices at the grocery store.

“Meal is going to be priced to disappear and go away,” said Gordon Denny, an agricultural consultant and former procurement director at crop giant Bunge Global SA. As a result, “protein in all forms will get a little less expensive.”

It will undoubtedly take months or even years for the cost savings to work their way down the supply chain. Still, any drop in meat costs will bring welcome relief to inflation-fatigued households. Although the consumer price index for core goods, which excludes energy and food, ended 2023 at the weakest pace in more than two years, the prices of some basic grocery items have been sticky.

Meat inflation has been particularly stubborn. Retail chicken breast prices, which averaged less than $3 a pound in March 2020, soared to $4.75 a pound in September 2022. Prices have since inched back to earth but are still elevated, US Department of Agriculture data show. With Americans eating around 100 pounds of chicken a year, the price hikes are hard to ignore. Lower-income consumers are more likely to trade down or walk away from high-priced meat versus groceries overall, said Sofia Baig, an economist at market research company Morning Consult.

To be sure, meat prices are also influenced by a number of other factors including the availability of corn — the other key feed component — as well as labor, logistical disruptions, animal disease outbreaks and consumer demand. More than half the cost of meat on the grocery store shelf occurs after the animal has left the farm, said Chad Hart, professor of economics at Iowa State University.

Companies including Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. and Bunge are racing to expand soybean processing capacity, but it will take some plants years to reach full capacity. Even once the increased supply of meal hits the market, the lower feed costs won’t translate to smaller grocery bills immediately.

“It’s still going to take them a while to work that through the cost of goods to what the consumer sees or even to the wholesale channel,” said Brian Earnest, lead protein industry analyst at CoBank. When the lower prices start showing up, they’re likely to arrive in the form of sales, like buy one, get one offers. “That promotional activity is going to ramp up here this year.”

(to be continued)

Translation

（彭博）—經過多年的屠宰肉檯價格衝擊之後，美國人可能會看到肉類價格下跌，這要歸功於一個不太可能的盟友：新興的可再生燃料行業。

出大量加工生產用以降低美國排放所需的植物性航空燃料和柴油所需的大豆，也產生大量副產品:豆粕，廣泛用於動物飼料。 肉類生產商餵食動物的成本越低，他們生產的肉類就越多，最終導致在雜貨店的價格更低。

農作物巨頭 Bunge Global SA 的農業顧問兼前採購總監 Gordon Denny 表示： “豆粕的價位將會淡出消失。” 因此， “所有形式的蛋白質都會變得更便宜一些。”

毫無疑問，成本下降需要數月,甚至數年的時間才能在供應鏈中發揮作用。 儘管如此，肉類成本的任何下降,都將為飽受通膨困擾的家庭帶來可喜的緩解。 儘管不包括能源和食的核心商品的消費者物價指數以兩年多來最弱的速度結束了2023 年，但一些基本雜貨的價格仍難以解決。

肉類通膨尤其頑固。 2020 年 3 月，雞胸肉零售價格平均每磅不到 3 美元，在2022 年 9 月飆升至每磅 4.75 美元。美國農業部數據顯示，此後價格已小幅回落，但仍處於較高水平。 由於美國人每年消耗約 100 磅雞肉，因此價格上漲不容忽視。 市場研究公司 Morning Consult 的經濟學家 Sofia Baig 表示，與食品雜貨相比，低收入消費者更有可能降低消費或放棄購買高價肉類。

可以肯定的是，肉類價格也受到許多其他因素的影響，包括玉米（另一種關鍵飼料成分）的供應以及勞動力、物流中斷、動物疾病爆發和消費者需求。 愛荷華州立大學經濟學教授Chad Hart表示，雜貨店貨架上的肉品成本一半以上出現在動物離開農場之後。

包括 Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.和 Bunge 在內的公司正在競相擴大大豆加工能力，但一些工廠需要數年時間才能達到全速生產。 即使增加的飼料供應進入市場，飼料成本的降低也不會立即令雜貨費用減少。

CoBank 蛋白質行業首席分析師 Brian Earnest 表示： “他們仍然需要一段時間才能將商品成本納入至消費者所見到，甚至進入批發管道。” 當較低的價格開始出現時，它們很可能會以促銷的形式出現，例如買一送一。 “今年的促銷活動將會加強。”

（待續）

Honda and GM begin mass production of next-generation fuel cell systems, 1/3 of production cost

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

ホンダとGM 次世代燃料電池システム量産開始 生産コスト3分の1

2024年1月26日 1時03分

自動車メーカーのホンダとアメリカのGM＝ゼネラル・モーターズは、ことし日本とアメリカで発売する予定の燃料電池車に搭載する次世代の燃料電池システムの量産を始めたと発表しました。

生産コストを従来の3分の1におさえているのが特徴で、ほかの企業にも販売していく方針です。

ホンダとGMは25日、アメリカ中西部ミシガン州デトロイト近郊にある合弁会社の工場で次世代の燃料電池システムの量産を始めたと発表しました。

新たな燃料電池システムは、材料の見直しなどで生産コストを従来の3分の1まで大幅に削減したほか耐久性も2倍に高め、マイナス30度という寒さが厳しい地域でも稼働できるのが特徴だということです。

ホンダは脱炭素に向けてEV＝電気自動車とともに水素事業に力を入れています。

ホンダはこのシステムを搭載したSUV＝多目的スポーツ車タイプの燃料電池車を、ことし日本とアメリカで発売する予定です。

また、このシステムを車だけでなく電源装置としてほかの企業にも販売していく方針です。

ホンダとGMの合弁会社の鈴木哲男副社長は「この燃料電池が信頼性があるものだということを理解してもらい、販売を拡大していきたい。需要が増えれば価格も安くなるので多くの燃料電池を早く世の中に普及させたい」と話していました。

Translation

Automobile manufacturer Honda together with American GM = General Motors announced that they had begun mass production of a next-generation fuel cell system that would be installed in fuel cell vehicles scheduled to be released in Japan and the United States this year.

It was characterized by reducing production costs to one-third of conventional costs, and the company planned to sell it to other companies as well.

Honda and GM announced on the 25th that they had begun mass production of a next-generation fuel cell system at their joint venture plant near Detroit of  Michigan in the Midwest of the US.

The new fuel cell system was characterized by significantly reducing production costs to one-third of conventional costs through changes in materials and other factors, as well as doubling its durability and allowing it to operate in regions as cold as -30 degrees Celsius.

Towards decarbonization Honda was putting efforts on hydrogen business as well as EV (electric vehicle).

Honda planned to release an SUV (multipurpose sports vehicle) type fuel cell vehicle equipped using this system in Japan and the United States this year.

Also, they planned to sell this system not only to cars but also to other companies as power supplies.

Tetsuo Suzuki (鈴木哲男), vice president of the joint venture between Honda and GM, said, ``We want people to understand that this fuel cell is reliable, and we want to expand sales. As demand increases, prices will also decrease, so we want to popularize fuel cells to the world as soon as possible."

              So, Honda and GM will begin mass production of a next-generation fuel cell system vehicles. The new fuel cell will be characterized by reducing production costs to one-third of conventional costs. Also, the system can operate in regions as cold as -30 degrees Celsius. I am interested in knowing how the new fuel cell operates and what will be its impact on the sales of traditional EV.