Global coal demand has peaked and could decline by 2% in the next three years due to China's increased use of renewable energy

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

世界の石炭需要がピークに、今後３年で２％減少か　中国の再エネ使用増加で

2023.12.16 Sat posted at 14:15 JST

ロンドン（ＣＮＮ） 国際エネルギー機関（ＩＥＡ）は１５日、中国が再生可能エネルギー源の稼働を増やす中、世界の石炭需要は今年でピークに達する公算が大きく、今後３年間で約２％減少する可能性があるとの見解を示した。

ＩＥＡが３年間のスパンで石炭需要の低下を予測するのは始めて。

石炭の需要は今年、８５億４０００万トンのピークに達し、従来の最高だった２０２２年の８４億２０００万トンを上回る見通し。

ＩＥＡは２４年には石炭需要が減少に転じ、２６年末までに２．３％落ち込むと予測している。

ＩＥＡのエネルギー市場・安全保障局長を務める貞森恵祐氏は今回の予測について、「石炭の転換点がはっきりと視界に入った」と指摘。「世界の石炭需要はこれまで何度か減少したが、その期間は短く、ソ連崩壊や新型コロナウイルス危機といった異例の事態が原因だった」と述べた。

そのうえで「今回は様相が異なる。今回の減少はより構造的で、クリーンエネルギー技術の強力かつ持続的な拡大が要因になっている」と説明した。

ＩＥＡによると、今後３年間で稼働する再生エネルギー能力の半分以上は中国が占める見通し。中国は現在、世界の石炭需要の半分超を占める。

１３日に採択された国連気候変動枠組み条約締約国会議（ＣＯＰ２８）の新たな合意文書では、化石燃料からの脱却が初めて呼び掛けられている。ただ、曖昧（あいまい）な表現が使われているため、一部の政府は最小限の行動しか取らずに済む可能性がある。

今回の合意では世界１００カ国以上や多くの気候団体から要請が出ていた石油、石炭、天然ガスの「段階的廃止」には踏み込んでいない。

Translation

LONDON (CNN) - The International Energy Agency (IEA) expressed the opinion on the 15th that global coal demand would likely to peak this year and could fall by about 2% over the next three years as China ramped up use of renewable energy sources.

This was the first time that the IEA predicted a decline in coal demand over a three-year period.

Coal demand was expected to peak at 8.54 billion tonnes this year, surpassing the previous peak of 8.42 billion tonnes in 2022.

The IEA predicted that coal demand could begin to decline in 2024, falling 2.3% by the end of 2026.

Commenting on the forecast this time, Keisuke Sadamori (貞森恵祐), director of the IEA's Energy Markets and Security Bureau, pointed out that ``The turning point for coal is now clearly in sight.'' He said that "Global coal demand has fallen several times in the past, but these were short-lived and caused by extraordinary events such as the collapse of the Soviet Union and the coronavirus crisis."

On top of that he explained that "This time, things are different. This time the decline is more structural, driven by the strong and sustained expansion of clean energy technologies."

According to the IEA, China was expected to account for more than half of the renewable energy capacity production over the next three years. China currently accounted for more than half of the world's coal demand.

A new agreement adopted by the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) on the 13th called for the first time to move away from fossil fuels. However, the ambiguous language used might mean that some governments would take minimal action only.

The agreement did not step into the "phasing out" of oil, coal and natural gas, which had been called for by more than 100 countries and many climate groups.

So, the IEA expresses the opinion that global coal demand is likely to peak this year and could fall by about 2% over the next three years as China ramped up use of renewable energy sources. It also predicts that coal demand will begin to fall 2.3% by the end of 2026. While this is good news in fighting against global warming, I am wondering if this is too little too late?