Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:
Tencent Leads $80 Billion Rout as China Rekindles
Crackdown Fear (2/2)
Zheping Huang, Jing Jin and Sarah Zheng
Fri, December 22, 2023 at 2:10 a.m. PST
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Even if Beijing’s focus remains squarely on gaming, the
regulations could signal a sea change in the traditional “freemium” model,
where users download titles free of charge but spend vast amounts within games
to either gain an advantage or establish virtual identities. That approach has
come under scrutiny in countries like Japan because of its addictive nature and
tendency to incite younger players to spend.
“The impact in China will eventually be bigger than the market is pricing in and we believe that results could force other countries to similarly take measures against mobile gaming/social media addiction within a few years,” Lightstream Research analyst Mio Kato wrote. “This is the beginning of the end for the current mobile gaming business model.”
Tencent’s games vice president Zhang Wei said in a statement the regulatory moves won’t fundamentally change its business model or operations. And after the market closed, it announced a HK$1 billion ($128 million) buyback it undertook on Friday.
The latest rules stung all the more because Beijing had appeared to thaw on the sector.
In December 2022, Tencent secured a green-light for a clutch of major releases including Valorant and Pokémon Unite — a milestone that reinforced hopes China was easing its two-year crackdown on Big Tech. The WeChat operator is now locked in a fierce battle with NetEase as it rolls out casual title Dream Star in hopes of replenishing an aging gaming portfolio. Both companies have poured advertising and other promotional costs into the so-called party royale genre, at a level unseen in recent years.
China’s gaming market was set to grow almost 14% to 302.9 billion yuan ($42.4 billion) in 2023, reversing a 10% decline from the year before, according to data provider CNG.
“This makes investors remember the nightmare from a few years ago, when the government tried to regulate mobile games’ playing time,” said Steven Leung, an executive director at UOB Kay Hian. “With these new rules, investors may just leave the market totally, because the policy risk is too high.”
Smackdown: The Bloomberg Open, Europe Edition
Much of the issue stemmed from the vague wording. The regulations asked that game publishers operating abroad respect Chinese laws and culture and refrain from endangering national security, without elaborating. Tencent is the world’s largest gaming publisher, with investments in studios from Epic Games Inc. in the US to Supercell in Europe.
The agency will take feedback on the proposed rules for a month, without saying when they take effect. Some investors held out hope that regulators may eventually be convinced to backtrack on the more unpopular measures.
“Strict regulation will inevitably hinder the long-term development of the online gaming industry, raising doubts about whether the government is contemplating a new round of regulatory direction,” said Mike Leung, investment manager at Wocom Securities Ltd.
Translation
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即使北京的重點仍然集中在遊戲上，這些規定也可能標誌著傳統「先免費後付增值費」模式的巨大變化，即用戶免費下載遊戲，但在遊戲中花費大量資金以獲得優勢或建立虛擬身份。 這種做法在日本等國家受到了密切關注，因為它具有令人上癮的性質，並且傾向於刺激年輕玩家去消費。
Lightstream Research 分析師 Mio Kato 寫道： “對中國的影響最終將比市場定價預期的更大，我們相信，結果可能會迫使其他國家在幾年內採取類似措施來應對手機遊戲/社交媒體成癮”; “這是當前手機遊戲商業模式終結的開始。”
騰訊遊戲副總裁 Zhang Wei 在聲明中表示，監管措施不會從根本上改變其商業模式或營運。 收盤後，該公司宣佈於週五進行 10 億港元（1.28 億美元）的回購。
最新的規定有更加的驚愕，因為北京方面對該行業的態度似乎有所緩和。
過去幾個月，官員鼓勵電子競技作為後疫情時代經濟的引擎。 習近平本人出席了在杭州舉行的第十九屆亞運會開幕式，本屆亞運會首次將職業競技項目納入獎牌爭奪之中。
2022 年 12 月，騰訊獲得了包括《Valorant》和《Pokémon Unite》在內的一系列重要的公開發行批准 - 這一里程碑增強了人們對中國放鬆兩年來對大型科技公司打壓的希望。 家微信業者目前正與網易展開激烈競爭，網易推出休閒遊戲《夢幻之星》，希望補充老化的遊戲產品組合。 兩家公司都在所謂的皇家派對類型中投入了廣告和其他促銷費用，其程度是近年來前所未見的。
數據供應商 CNG 的數據顯示，到 2023 年，中國遊戲市場預計將成長近 14%，達到 3,029 億元人民幣（424 億美元），扭轉了去年 10% 的下降趨勢。
UOB Kay Hian 執行董事 Steven Leung 表示： “這讓投資者回想起幾年前的噩夢，當時政府試圖監管手機遊戲的遊戲時間”; “有了這些新規則，投資者可能會完全離開市場，因為政策風險太高了。”
非常明確的拒絕：The Bloomberg Open，歐洲版
該機構將在一個月內收集有關擬議規則的反映，但未透露何時生效。 一些投資者希望監管機構最終可能會被說服放棄比較不受歡迎的措施。
Wocom Securities Ltd. 投資經理 Mike Leung 表示： “嚴格的監管將不可避免地阻礙網路遊戲產業的長期發展，讓人懷疑政府是否正在考慮新一輪的監管方向。”
The Communist Party since 2020 has waged a campaign against the private sector, probably it may regard them are amassing too much power and expanding recklessly, threatening CCP’s control of the world’s No. 2 economy. Xi Jinping’s administration has long sought to combat gaming addiction, blaming online entertainment for the rise of myopia among youths. Critics have also linked that to various ills from unemployment to low birth rates. Currently China’s gaming regulator will take feedback on the proposed controlling rules for a month. Let’s see what will happen then.
Note:
Freemium is combination of the words "free" and "premium,"
freemium is a type of business model that offers basic features of a product or
service to users at no cost and charges a premium for supplemental or advanced
features. (https://www.investopedia.com/)
Bloomberg: The Open is a TV program. Host Jonathan
Ferro presents a compilation of informative and insightful market analysis
ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street to help investors choose the right
stocks.
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