港股折價 36% 揭示中國經濟陰霾的真實深度

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Hong Kong Stocks at 36% Discount Show True Depth of China Gloom

Bloomberg News

Mon, January 22, 2024 at 2:01 a.m. PST

(Bloomberg) -- A rout in Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong intensified Monday, pushing their discount to mainland peers to the deepest in fifteen years in the latest sign of growing pessimism among international investors.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 2.4%, inching closer to a level last seen almost two decades ago, while the onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index finished 1.6% lower. As a result, a gauge tracking mainland stocks’ price gaps versus their dual listings in Hong Kong reached the widest since 2009 — implying a 36% discount for the offshore market.

The steeper losses in Hong Kong, where some of China’s most influential and innovative firms are listed and Beijing’s interference is less felt, paint a more worrisome picture of global investor sentiment toward the world’s No. 2 economy. Signs of government intervention to prop up the mainland market have increased in recent weeks as selling pressure continued despite a more optimistic Wall Street, where the S&P 500 Index climbed to a record on Friday.

A confluence of factors have been behind the seemingly endless selloff in Chinese shares, ranging from a deepening housing slump to stubborn deflationary pressures, as well as uncertainties about the trajectory of US interest rates. Chinese commercial lenders’ latest move to keep their benchmark lending rates unchanged, which followed the central bank’s recent decision to maintain borrowing costs, may also have disappointed investors hoping for more aggressive stimulus.

“Quite a large number of H share investors are overseas institutional funds and they have reallocated from Hong Kong to Japan and other Asian markets in their Asian allocation,” said Redmond Wong, market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets HK Ltd., referring to Hong Kong-listed stocks. “Some mainland institutional investors may have more restrictions on how much they can unload and they also tend to have a home bias.”

Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong are often regarded as a better barometer of the health of the world’s second-largest economy and a more accurate gauge of broader investor sentiment. In comparison, trading in Shanghai and Shenzhen is constantly under the influence of meddling by Chinese regulators, from restrictions on anything from short selling or initial public offerings to verbal warnings and direct intervention by state funds.

The HSCEI was a little over 1% away from dropping to the lowest since 2005 and Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index also inched closer to a level unseen since 2009. The biggest drags on Monday included Chinese tech behemoths Meituan and Tencent Holdings Ltd., as well as electric vehicle makers Li Auto Inc. and and BYD Co.

The latest declines may be attributable to “a lack of catalysts in the near term and outflows to more attractive alternatives in the region,” said Marvin Chen, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst. “Global markets have been surging on the chip sector, and this is an area where China and the rest of the world may run on separate tracks due to geopolitical tensions.”

The mood is similarly fragile in the mainland Chinese market, where the benchmark CSI 300 hit a new five-year low.

The slump once again coincided with a jump in turnover on a handful of exchange-traded funds tracking the key indexes, a sign that state-led buyers may be trying to limit declines.

The rout is also adding pressure on so-called snowball derivatives, which are structured products that promise bond-like coupons as long as the underlying assets trade within a certain range. The CSI Smallcap 500 Index, a pricing reference for some of these products, slipped 4.7% on Monday, taking it below an earlier estimated threshold that may trigger widespread losses on the snowballs.

Less than a month into the new year, the gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong has already lost 13%, making it the worst-performing major benchmark in global indexes. In comparison, the S&P 500 has gained 1.5%.

The benefits of monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China have already been priced in and “punchier” policies are needed to revive stocks, Eva Lee, head of Greater China equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, said at a briefing Friday.

Translation

（彭博） - 週一，在香港上市的中國股市暴跌加劇，相對於內地股市的折價達到十五年來的最高水平，這是國際投資者日益悲觀的最新跡象。

恆生中國企業指數下跌 2.4%，到了接近二十年前的水平，而在岸基準滬深 300 指數收盤下跌 1.6%。 結果，一項追蹤內地股票與在香港兩地上市股票價格差距的指標達到了 2009 年以來的最大水平，這意味著離岸市場出現了 36% 的折扣。

相對地, 在香港上市的一些中國的最具影響力和創新性的公司, 因其是較少受到北京方面的買賣干預，故在香港出現更大的跌幅, 並描繪出一幅全球投資者對世界第二大經濟體的情緒更加令人擔憂的景象。近幾週中國政府支撐內地市場的跡像有所增加，儘管華爾街對股市前景較樂觀, 令標普 500 指數上週五攀升至歷史新高，但世界第二大經濟體持續面對拋售壓力。

中國股市似乎無休無止的拋售背後有多種因素，包括房地產市場不斷下滑、頑固的通貨緊縮壓力以及美國利率軌蹟的不確定性。 在央行最近決定維持借貸成本之後，中國商業借貸者維持基準貸款利率不變, 這最新舉措也可能令希望見到更積極刺激措施的投資者感到失望。

Saxo資本市場香港有限公司市場策略師 Redmond Wong 就香港上市股票表示：「相當多的H股投資者是海外機構基金，他們的亞洲份额中已從香港重新配置到日本和其他亞洲市場」; 「一些內地機構投資者的拋售數量可能受到更多限制，而且他們也往往偏好本土資本」。

在香港上市的中國股票通常被認為是世界第二大經濟體健康狀況的更好晴雨表，也是更廣泛投資者情緒的更準確衡量標準。 相較之下，上海和深圳的交易一直受到中國監管機構干預的影響，從進行賣空或首次公開募股的限制, 到口頭警告以至國家基金的直接干預。

恆生國企指數距離跌至 2005 年以來的最低點僅差 1% 多一點，香港基準恆生指數也慢慢接近 2009 年以來未見過的低水平。週一最大的拖累包括中國科技巨頭美團點評和騰訊控股有限公司。以及電動車製造商Li Auto Inc.和比亞迪公司。

Bloomberg Intelligence 分析師 Marvin Chen 表示，最新的下跌可能是由於「短期內缺乏刺激推動，資金流向更具吸引力的其他地區」; 「全球市場在晶片領域一直在飆升，而在這個領域，由於地緣政治緊張，中國和世界其餘國家可能會分道揚鑣」。

中國大陸市場的情緒同樣脆弱，基準滬深300指數觸及五年新低。

這次暴跌再次與追蹤關鍵指數的少數交易所交易基金成交量大幅上升同時發生，這表明中國國家主導的買家可能正試圖限制跌幅。

這次暴跌也為所謂的雪球衍生品增加了壓力，這些衍生品是一種與潛在的資產、產品或指數相關的產品，只要潛在的資產在一定範圍內交易，就承諾提供類似債券的優惠券。 中證小盤 500 指數（是其中一些衍生品的價格參考）週一下跌 4.7%，低於先前估計的臨界點，這可能會引發雪球衍生品的廣泛損失。

進入新年不到一個月，在香港上市的中國股市指數已下跌13%，成為全球指數中表現最差的主要基準指數。 相比之下，標準普爾 500 指數上漲了 1.5%。

瑞銀全球財富管理大中華區股票主管 Eva Lee 在周五的新聞發布會上表示，中國人民銀行寬鬆貨幣政策的好處已經被計入消化，需要採取「更有力」的政策來重振股市。

       So, there is a rout in Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong and that is the latest sign of growing pessimism among international investors. China is trying to tackle the issue and there is a visible hand in the financial market. Chinese stock prices would be more unpredictable. To all international investors, this political intervention can be understood as a normal socialist way of doing things.

Note:

a. Snowballs promise bond-like coupons as long as the underlying assets trade within a certain range. While that has attracted China’s institutional and wealthy investors over the past years, a seemingly bottomless decline in the stock market has exposed the risk of those derivatives hitting levels that trigger losses. China’s CSI 300 benchmark has fallen about 4% thus far in 2024, extending last year’s 11% slide. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, which snowballs are mostly tied to, recently closed at their lowest levels since April 2020 and April 2022 respectively. (https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-snowball-derivatives-)

b. Derivatives (衍生品) are financial contracts, set between two or more parties, that derive their value from an underlying asset, group of assets, or benchmark. A derivative can trade on an exchange or over-the-counter. Prices for derivatives derive from fluctuations in the underlying asset.

c. Structured products are financial instruments whose performance or value is linked to that of an underlying asset, product, or index. These may include market indices, individual or baskets of stocks, bonds, and commodities, currencies, interest rates or a mix of these. (https://www.dbs.com.sg/treasures/investments/product)