中國6.3兆美元的股票拋售日益嚴重

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following :

China’s $6.3 Trillion Stock Selloff Is Getting Uglier by the Day

Abhishek Vishnoi and Charlotte Yang

Fri, January 19, 2024 at 6:49 a.m. PST

(Bloomberg) -- Chinese stocks just capped another dismal week, with a gauge of mainland firms listed in Hong Kong languishing at the bottom of global equity index rankings for the year so far.

Grim milestones have kept piling up in recent days: Tokyo has overtaken Shanghai as Asia’s biggest equity market, while India’s valuation premium over China has hit a record. Locally, a meltdown in Chinese shares is wreaking havoc on the nation’s asset management industry, pushing mutual fund closures to a five-year high.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has already lost 11% in 2024. Coming after a record four-year losing streak, the slump is reinforcing a structural shift that’s seeing everyone from active money managers to passive funds turn their back on the world’s second-largest stock market.

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index slipped as much as 2.2% at the start of US trading Friday, extending losses to a fifth consecutive day.

In all, some $6.3 trillion has been wiped out from the market value of Chinese and Hong Kong stocks since a peak reached in 2021, underscoring the challenge that Beijing faces as it seeks to arrest a decline in investor confidence. Authorities have ruled out the use of massive stimulus to revive the flagging economy, leaving traders wondering when things will improve.

“What we are seeing this year so far really is a continuation of what we saw last year,” John Lin, AllianceBernstein’s chief investment officer of China equities, said in an Jan. 17 interview on Bloomberg Television. “These squeezing-the-toothpaste type of stimulus policies so far haven’t been able to turn around the underlying bottom-up fundamentals of areas like the property sector.”

‘Waiting Game’

The HSCEI gauge plunged more than 6% this week and is on track to record its worst January performance in eight years. On the mainland, the CSI 300 Index has dropped in nine of the last 10 weeks. Signs that state funds likely bought exchange-traded funds and a decision by China’s largest brokerage to suspend short selling for some clients failed to halt the onshore benchmark’s losing run.

The headwinds buffeting the market are well documented: China’s real estate sector remains a trouble spot, deflationary pressures are building and a long-running feud between Beijing and Washington refuses to go away, with the US election set to take place later this year. In recent days, uncertainties about the trajectory of US interest rates and the threat of an imminent blowout of local stock derivatives have added to investor worries.

Asian fund managers have cut their allocation to China by 12 percentage points to a net 20% underweight, the lowest in more than a year, according to the latest Bank of America survey.

Managers of benchmark-tracking funds have sold a net $300 million of shares traded in mainland China and Hong Kong this month, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis. That’s a reversal from the last half of 2023, when they bought $700 million on a net basis even as stock indexes declined.

“China is a waiting game and we continue to be waiting,” said Mark Matthews, head of Asia research at Bank Julius Baer & Co., which is mostly avoiding Chinese equities.

Beijing’s efforts to reassure investors have been met with skepticism from investors, many of whom worry that authorities are behind the curve. While the People’s Bank of China took steps last month to pump cash into the financial system, it bucked widespread expectations for cutting a key policy rate on Monday.

Speaking to leaders at the World Economic Forum this week, Chinese Premier Li Qiang trumpeted his nation’s ability to hit its roughly 5% growth target for 2023 without flooding the economy with “massive stimulus.”

Right now, the loss of confidence is so severe that even attractive valuations are of little help. The MSCI China Index has never been this cheap versus the S&P 500 gauge from a forward earnings estimate perspective. Still, bets on a short-term rebound have failed to materialize.

“The government seems very sanguine about the economy,” said Xin-Yao Ng, an investment director for Asian equities at abrdn. “The market might not even trust the 5% growth figure, it certainly has a much more negative view on the economy and definitely believes Beijing needs a big fiscal response.”

Translation

（彭博）—中國股市剛結束了另一個慘淡的一星期，在香港上市的內地公司的指標, 今年以來在全球股票指數排名中墊底。

最近幾天，嚴峻的里程碑不斷湧現：東京已取代上海成為亞洲最大的股市，而印度相對於中國的估值溢價則創下歷史新高。 在中國當地，股市的暴跌正在對中國的資產管理業造成嚴重破壞，將互惠基金停止數量推至五年來新高。

恆生中國企業指數在2024 年已下跌11%。在創紀錄的四年連續下跌之後，這次暴跌正在強化結構性轉變，從主動型金基到被動型基金經理，所有人都對這家全球第二大股市不再理睬。

週五美國交易開盤，納斯達克金龍中國指數下跌 2.2%，連續第五天下跌。

自 2021 年達到高峰以來，中國內地和香港股市的市值總共蒸發了約 6.3 兆美元，這突顯了北京方面在遏制投資者信心下降方面面臨的挑戰。 當局已排除使用大規模刺激措施來重振萎靡不振的經濟的可能性，這讓交易員們想知道情況何時會有所改善。

AllianceBernstein 的中國股票首席投資官 John Lin 在 1 月 17 日接受彭博電視台採訪時表示， “今年迄今為止我們所看到的情況其實是去年所見的延續”; “到目前為止，這些擠牙膏式的刺激政策還未能扭轉房地產等領域自下而上的基本面。”

《一場等待遊戲》

恆生國企指數本週暴跌逾 6%，並有機會創下八年來最差的 1 月表現。 在大陸，滬深300指數在過去10週中有9週下跌。雖然有跡象國家基金可能購買了交易所交易基金，及中國最大的券商決定暫停部分客戶的賣空交易，均但未能阻止該在岸基準指數的跌勢。

衝擊市場的逆風是有跡可查的：中國的房地產行業仍然是一個麻煩點，通貨緊縮壓力正在積聚，北京和華盛頓之間的長期不和仍未消失，而美國大選將於今年晚些時候舉行。 最近幾天，美國利率走勢的不確定性, 以及本土股票衍生性商品即將爆發的威脅, 加劇了投資人的擔憂。

根據美國銀行的最新調查，亞洲基金經理人已將其對中國的份額削減了 12 個百分點，淨減持 20%，為一年多以來的最低水準。

摩根士丹利的分析顯示，基準追蹤基金的經理人本月已淨售出 3 億美元在中國大陸和香港交易的股票。 這與 2023 年下半年的情況相反，當時即使股指下跌，他們仍淨買進 7 億美元。

Bank Julius Baer & Co. 亞洲研究主管 Mark Matthews 表示: 「中國是一場等待遊戲，我們將繼續等待」, 該公司主要迴避中國股票。

北京安撫投資者的努力遭到了投資者的懷疑，其中許多人擔心當局是在這困局的背後。 儘管中國人民銀行上個月採取措施向金融體系注入資金，但周一卻違背了普遍預期的下調關鍵政策利率的期望。

中國總理李強本週在世界經濟論壇上向各國領導人發表講話，強調中國有能力在不採取「大規模刺激」的情況下實現 2023 年約 5% 的成長目標。

目前，信心喪失如此嚴重，即使具有吸引力的估值也無濟於事。 從遠期獲利預測的角度來看，MSCI 中國指數相對於標準普爾 500 指數從未如此便宜過。 儘管如此，押注短期反彈沒有形成。

abrdn 亞洲股票投資總監 Xin-Yao Ng 表示: 「政府似乎對經濟非常樂觀」; 「市場甚至可能不相信5%的成長數字，它對經濟的看法肯定要悲觀得多，並且肯定認為北京需要採取大規模的財政應對措施」。

       So, China seems confident that its economy will be all right although some $6.3 trillion has been wiped out from the market value of Chinese and Hong Kong stocks since a peak reached in 2021. Chinese Premier Li Qiang trumpets his nation’s ability to hit its roughly 5% growth target for 2023 without flooding the economy with “massive stimulus.” I am wondering who will benefit from this situation.

Note:

In its web-site abrdn says that the company is a global investment establishment that helps clients and customers plan, save and invest for the future. They manage and administer £496bn of assets on behalf of clients (as at 30 June 2023). They are structured around three businesses – Investments, Adviser and Personal – focusing on the changing needs of clients. By diversifying the group, they are positioning themselves for growth in a changing investment landscape. (https://www.abrdn.com/en-gb/corporate/about-us)