製造飛機的突破如何拯救了日本航空火球中379 人的生命

Recently Yahoo news reported the following:

How aeroplane breakthroughs may have saved 379 lives from the Japan Airlines fireball

The Telegraph - Matt Oliver

Tue, January 2, 2024 at 10:02 a.m. PST

The evacuation of every passenger from the Japan Airlines aircraft that collided with a smaller plane on Tuesday seemed all the more miraculous as footage of the ensuing inferno emerged.

However, instead of being down to luck, industry insiders believe the incident is proof of how modern materials and tough fire safety rules can protect passengers.

The incident at Haneda Airport, Tokyo, marks the first time an Airbus A350 has been destroyed in an accident.

The model is the first of the manufacturer’s passenger jets to be built largely from carbon fibre composites.

“It’s a watershed event in aviation safety,” says Andreas Spaeth, an aviation journalist and co-host of a podcast that examines historic plane crashes.

“This was an aircraft that was absolutely full. So to see that everyone escaped safely is a miracle.

“Even then, it was a fairly long time before a big fire emerged. We have never seen a fuselage made of carbon fibre burn. And the structure held up pretty well.”

The twin-engine, double-aisle A350 has been in commercial service since 2015. It is used by several international carriers for long-haul journeys, with more than 570 in operation globally, according to Airbus.

Japan Airlines operates around 16 of the shorter, A350-900 planes.

Airbus says the A350 family uses “lightweight and high-strength materials” to reduce weight and increase fuel efficiency. These carbon fiber composites make up to 54pc of the overall frame, including the wings, reinforced by titanium and other metallic alloys.

Like all aircraft, these materials also need to meet tough safety standards that give passengers 90 seconds to escape in the event of a fire.

The A350 involved in Tuesday’s collision came in to land at Haneda Airport at about 5.45pm local time, before colliding with the coast guard plane just as it was touching down.

At that moment, the footage shows a large, bright orange flash.

The A350 then continues to skid forward, with fire and smoke billowing from behind it, before coming to a stop bent forward and resting on its nose.

Five people onboard the coastguard plane were killed in the collision.

Separate footage of the incident has shown smoke filling the cabin and passengers escaping via the inflatable slides extended from the sides of the plane, while the orange glow of fire can be seen underneath at least one of the wings.

“This was the very first crash or burn-up ever of a new carbon fiber aircraft type,” explains Spaeth.

“There’s the Boeing 787 and there’s the A350 being built of carbon fiber instead of aluminium. The inside also has the newest materials for seat covers, for wall covers, for carpets, all these things.

“We have very stringent standards these days and, of course, normally you’d never see in real life how these materials actually behave in a big fire, so this was very much a confirmation that the standards actually do what they’re supposed to do, delaying the spread of fire.

“We saw many cases in the 1980s and the 90s where once an aircraft was affected by fire, it almost always spread very quickly.

“But if you watch today, it took a surprisingly long time before the whole plane was on fire.”

Jan-Arwed Richter, founder and manager of the JACDEC Flight Safety Bureau in Germany, agrees: “Every modern-day aircraft is designed, manufactured and certified to allow a safe evacuation within 90 seconds. Today’s accident proved this concept does work.”

Steve Ganyard, a former fighter pilot for the US Marine Corps and aviation expert, added on ABC News: “I think this is going to come down to human error. The airplane did its job here.”

Many experts have also credited cabin crew on board the Japan Airlines flight for getting passengers out quickly, without taking bags.

Dai Whittingham, chief executive of the UK Flight Safety Committee, told Sky News: “It is a remarkable outcome and I think there are some people out there who have been particularly lucky today.

“The message here is really important: If anything like this happens to you, you have a chance and one priority, which is to get yourself off.”

Translation

在週二日本航空公司的飛機與一架較小的飛機相撞，隨著之後出現所發生的熊熊大火的鏡頭，令能使所有乘客撤離是不可思議地神奇。

然而，業內人士認為，這起事件並不是運氣，而是證明現代材料和嚴格的消防安全規則如何可保護乘客。

東京羽田機場發生的事件標誌著空中巴士 A350 飛機首次在意外中被摧毀。

該型號是該製造商第一架主要由碳纖維複合材料製造的客機。

航空記者 Andreas Spaeth，也是一個探討歷史性空難事件的播客的聯合主持人說道: 「這是航空安全領域的一個分水嶺」。

“這是一架絕對滿座員飛機。 所以看到大家都可安全逃離是一個奇蹟。”

“即便如此，大火還是過了相當長的一段時間才出現。 我們從未見過碳纖維製成的機身燃燒。 而且結構支撑得很好。”

有雙引擎、雙通道的 A350 自 2015 年起投入商業營運。據空中巴士稱，多家國際航空公司使用該機型進行長途旅行，全球營運的飛機數量超過 570 架。

日本航空營運約 16 架較短的 A350-900 飛機。

空中巴士公司表示，A350系列使用「輕質高強度材料」來減輕重量並提高燃油效率。 這些碳纖維複合材料佔整個框架的 54%，包括機翼，並由鈦和其他金屬合金加固。

與所有飛機一樣，這些材料也需要滿足嚴格的安全標準，讓乘客在發生火災時有 90 秒的時間逃生。

週二發生碰撞事件的這架 A350 於當地時間下午 5 點 45 分左右在羽田機場降落，隨後當正在著陸時與海岸防衛隊飛機相撞。

就在那一刻，鏡頭顯示出巨大的、明亮的橙色閃光。

然後，A350 繼續向前滑行，身後冒出火焰和滾滾濃煙，然後向前彎低停了下來，機頭著地。

海岸防衛隊飛機上有五人在碰撞中喪生。

事件的另一影像顯示，煙霧充滿了機艙，乘客透過從飛機兩側延伸的充氣滑梯逃生，而至少一個機翼下方可以看到橙色的火光。

Spaeth 解釋道: 「這是新型碳纖維飛機的首次墜毀或燒毀事件」。

「波音 787 和 A350 都是用碳纖維而不是鋁製造的。 裡面還有用最新材料造的座椅套、牆布、地毯等」。

「現在我們有非常嚴格的標準，當然，通常你在現實生活中永遠不會看到這些材料在大火中的實際表現，所以這在很大程度上證實了這些標準實際上達到了預期的效果，延緩火勢蔓延」。

 「我們在 20 世紀 80 年代和 90 年代看到過很多案例，飛機一旦起火，幾乎總是會迅速蔓延」。

「但如果你今天看的話，會發現令人驚訝要用很長一段時間，整架飛機才著火」。

德國 JACDEC 飛行安全局的創始人兼經理 Jan-Arwed Richter 對此表示同意：「每架現代飛機的設計、製造和認證都是為了在 90 秒內實現安全疏散。 今天的事故證明這個想法確實可行」。

美國海軍陸戰隊前戰鬥機飛行員兼航空專家 Steve Ganyard 在美國廣播公司新聞中補充道：「我認為這碰撞將歸類為人為錯誤。 飛機在這裡完成了它的任務。”

許多專家也稱讚日本航空航班上的機組人員在乘客沒有攜帶行李的情況下迅速將他們從飛機徹離。

英國飛行安全委員會執行長 Dai Whittingham 告訴天空新聞：「這是一個了不起的結果，我認為今天有些人特別幸運」。

「這裡傳達的訊息非常重要：如果類似的事情發生在你身上，你有一個機會，一個優先事項，那就是讓自己離開」。

      So, the evacuation of all passengers from the Japan Airlines aircraft that collided with a smaller plane on Tuesday seemed all the more miraculous. However, instead of being lucky, aircraft industry insiders believe the incident is proof of how modern materials and tough fire safety rules can protect passengers. Many experts also have credited cabin crew on board the airplane in getting passengers out quickly. Well done Airbus and Japan Airlines.

由於付款問題，俄羅斯石油貨品離開印度

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Russian Oil Cargoes Head Away From India Amid Payment Issues

Rakesh Sharma

Mon, January 1, 2024 at 10:44 p.m. PST

(Bloomberg) -- A number of vessels hauling crude from Russia that had been idling off India are now headed away from the country eastwards, amid concerns over oil payments to Moscow that spurred a slump in arrivals last month.

Five ships all carrying Sokol oil from Russia’s Far East — the NS Commander, Sakhalin Island, Krymsk, Nellis, and Liteyny Prospect — are moving toward the Malacca Strait at 7 to 10 knots, according to vessel-tracking data. A sixth also holding Sokol — the NS Century — is still close to Sri Lanka.

“China seems to have stepped in to save the idling Sokol cargoes,” said Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at data intelligence provider Kpler.

India’s oil imports from Russia — a vital outlet for Moscow amid the war in Ukraine — fell in December to their lowest since January 2023, with local refiners not receiving a single Sokol cargo due to payment issues, according to Kpler.

The US and its allies have imposed sanctions on entities deemed to have breached the $60-a-barrel cap on Russian crude exports, which came into effect late in 2022. Last month, a senior Treasury official said enforcement would be ramped up.

The NS Century — which hauls about 700,000 barrels — was sanctioned by the US Treasury last year. Four of the other vessels carry similar volumes, while the fifth, the Nellis, can hold twice as much. Most of the ships are owned by Russia’s state-backed shipping company, Sovcomflot PJSC.

Translation

（彭博）—由於在向莫斯科支付石油費用上有憂慮, 一些原本在印度閒置等待的從俄羅斯運輸原油的船隻現在正駛離該國向東航行導, 亦致上個月抵達印度的船隻數量銳減。

根據船隻追蹤數據，五艘從俄羅斯遠東地區運送索科爾石油的船隻 - NS Commander號、Sakhalin Island號、Krymsk號、Nellis號和Liteyny Prospect號 - 正以7至10節的速度駛向馬六甲海峽。 第六艘也載有索科爾石油 - NS Century號 - 仍然靠近斯里蘭卡。

數據情報提供商 Kpler 首席原油分析師 Viktor Katona 表示： “中國似乎已介入拯救閒置的索科爾石油。”

Kpler 表示，印度從俄羅斯（烏克蘭戰爭期間莫斯科的重要出口）的石油進口量在 12 月降至 2023 年 1 月以來的最低水平，當地煉油廠由於付款問題而沒有收到任何索科爾石油。

美國及其盟國已對被認為違反俄羅斯原油出口每桶 60 美元上限的實體去實施制裁，該制裁於 2022 年底生效。上個月，財政部一位高級官員表示將加強執法力度。

NS Century 號運載約 70 萬桶石油，去年受到美國財政部的製裁。 其他四艘船的容量相似，而第五艘「Nellis 號」的容量是其兩倍。 大多數船舶由俄羅斯國家支持的航運公司 Sovcomflot PJSC 擁有。

So, because of concerns over oil payments to Moscow, some vessels hauling crude from Russia are leaving India. Previously, concerns over oil payments to Moscow by India probably was about the currency to be used for payment. India insists to pay by Rupee, India’s official currency. I am wondering whether this will impact Russia’s ability to find money to continue with its war in Ukraine.

港股折價 36% 揭示中國經濟陰霾的真實深度

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Hong Kong Stocks at 36% Discount Show True Depth of China Gloom

Bloomberg News

Mon, January 22, 2024 at 2:01 a.m. PST

(Bloomberg) -- A rout in Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong intensified Monday, pushing their discount to mainland peers to the deepest in fifteen years in the latest sign of growing pessimism among international investors.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 2.4%, inching closer to a level last seen almost two decades ago, while the onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index finished 1.6% lower. As a result, a gauge tracking mainland stocks’ price gaps versus their dual listings in Hong Kong reached the widest since 2009 — implying a 36% discount for the offshore market.

The steeper losses in Hong Kong, where some of China’s most influential and innovative firms are listed and Beijing’s interference is less felt, paint a more worrisome picture of global investor sentiment toward the world’s No. 2 economy. Signs of government intervention to prop up the mainland market have increased in recent weeks as selling pressure continued despite a more optimistic Wall Street, where the S&P 500 Index climbed to a record on Friday.

A confluence of factors have been behind the seemingly endless selloff in Chinese shares, ranging from a deepening housing slump to stubborn deflationary pressures, as well as uncertainties about the trajectory of US interest rates. Chinese commercial lenders’ latest move to keep their benchmark lending rates unchanged, which followed the central bank’s recent decision to maintain borrowing costs, may also have disappointed investors hoping for more aggressive stimulus.

“Quite a large number of H share investors are overseas institutional funds and they have reallocated from Hong Kong to Japan and other Asian markets in their Asian allocation,” said Redmond Wong, market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets HK Ltd., referring to Hong Kong-listed stocks. “Some mainland institutional investors may have more restrictions on how much they can unload and they also tend to have a home bias.”

Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong are often regarded as a better barometer of the health of the world’s second-largest economy and a more accurate gauge of broader investor sentiment. In comparison, trading in Shanghai and Shenzhen is constantly under the influence of meddling by Chinese regulators, from restrictions on anything from short selling or initial public offerings to verbal warnings and direct intervention by state funds.

The HSCEI was a little over 1% away from dropping to the lowest since 2005 and Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index also inched closer to a level unseen since 2009. The biggest drags on Monday included Chinese tech behemoths Meituan and Tencent Holdings Ltd., as well as electric vehicle makers Li Auto Inc. and and BYD Co.

The latest declines may be attributable to “a lack of catalysts in the near term and outflows to more attractive alternatives in the region,” said Marvin Chen, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst. “Global markets have been surging on the chip sector, and this is an area where China and the rest of the world may run on separate tracks due to geopolitical tensions.”

The mood is similarly fragile in the mainland Chinese market, where the benchmark CSI 300 hit a new five-year low.

The slump once again coincided with a jump in turnover on a handful of exchange-traded funds tracking the key indexes, a sign that state-led buyers may be trying to limit declines.

The rout is also adding pressure on so-called snowball derivatives, which are structured products that promise bond-like coupons as long as the underlying assets trade within a certain range. The CSI Smallcap 500 Index, a pricing reference for some of these products, slipped 4.7% on Monday, taking it below an earlier estimated threshold that may trigger widespread losses on the snowballs.

Less than a month into the new year, the gauge of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong has already lost 13%, making it the worst-performing major benchmark in global indexes. In comparison, the S&P 500 has gained 1.5%.

The benefits of monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China have already been priced in and “punchier” policies are needed to revive stocks, Eva Lee, head of Greater China equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, said at a briefing Friday.

Translation

（彭博） - 週一，在香港上市的中國股市暴跌加劇，相對於內地股市的折價達到十五年來的最高水平，這是國際投資者日益悲觀的最新跡象。

恆生中國企業指數下跌 2.4%，到了接近二十年前的水平，而在岸基準滬深 300 指數收盤下跌 1.6%。 結果，一項追蹤內地股票與在香港兩地上市股票價格差距的指標達到了 2009 年以來的最大水平，這意味著離岸市場出現了 36% 的折扣。

相對地, 在香港上市的一些中國的最具影響力和創新性的公司, 因其是較少受到北京方面的買賣干預，故在香港出現更大的跌幅, 並描繪出一幅全球投資者對世界第二大經濟體的情緒更加令人擔憂的景象。近幾週中國政府支撐內地市場的跡像有所增加，儘管華爾街對股市前景較樂觀, 令標普 500 指數上週五攀升至歷史新高，但世界第二大經濟體持續面對拋售壓力。

中國股市似乎無休無止的拋售背後有多種因素，包括房地產市場不斷下滑、頑固的通貨緊縮壓力以及美國利率軌蹟的不確定性。 在央行最近決定維持借貸成本之後，中國商業借貸者維持基準貸款利率不變, 這最新舉措也可能令希望見到更積極刺激措施的投資者感到失望。

Saxo資本市場香港有限公司市場策略師 Redmond Wong 就香港上市股票表示：「相當多的H股投資者是海外機構基金，他們的亞洲份额中已從香港重新配置到日本和其他亞洲市場」; 「一些內地機構投資者的拋售數量可能受到更多限制，而且他們也往往偏好本土資本」。

在香港上市的中國股票通常被認為是世界第二大經濟體健康狀況的更好晴雨表，也是更廣泛投資者情緒的更準確衡量標準。 相較之下，上海和深圳的交易一直受到中國監管機構干預的影響，從進行賣空或首次公開募股的限制, 到口頭警告以至國家基金的直接干預。

恆生國企指數距離跌至 2005 年以來的最低點僅差 1% 多一點，香港基準恆生指數也慢慢接近 2009 年以來未見過的低水平。週一最大的拖累包括中國科技巨頭美團點評和騰訊控股有限公司。以及電動車製造商Li Auto Inc.和比亞迪公司。

Bloomberg Intelligence 分析師 Marvin Chen 表示，最新的下跌可能是由於「短期內缺乏刺激推動，資金流向更具吸引力的其他地區」; 「全球市場在晶片領域一直在飆升，而在這個領域，由於地緣政治緊張，中國和世界其餘國家可能會分道揚鑣」。

中國大陸市場的情緒同樣脆弱，基準滬深300指數觸及五年新低。

這次暴跌再次與追蹤關鍵指數的少數交易所交易基金成交量大幅上升同時發生，這表明中國國家主導的買家可能正試圖限制跌幅。

這次暴跌也為所謂的雪球衍生品增加了壓力，這些衍生品是一種與潛在的資產、產品或指數相關的產品，只要潛在的資產在一定範圍內交易，就承諾提供類似債券的優惠券。 中證小盤 500 指數（是其中一些衍生品的價格參考）週一下跌 4.7%，低於先前估計的臨界點，這可能會引發雪球衍生品的廣泛損失。

進入新年不到一個月，在香港上市的中國股市指數已下跌13%，成為全球指數中表現最差的主要基準指數。 相比之下，標準普爾 500 指數上漲了 1.5%。

瑞銀全球財富管理大中華區股票主管 Eva Lee 在周五的新聞發布會上表示，中國人民銀行寬鬆貨幣政策的好處已經被計入消化，需要採取「更有力」的政策來重振股市。

       So, there is a rout in Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong and that is the latest sign of growing pessimism among international investors. China is trying to tackle the issue and there is a visible hand in the financial market. Chinese stock prices would be more unpredictable. To all international investors, this political intervention can be understood as a normal socialist way of doing things.

Note:

a. Snowballs promise bond-like coupons as long as the underlying assets trade within a certain range. While that has attracted China’s institutional and wealthy investors over the past years, a seemingly bottomless decline in the stock market has exposed the risk of those derivatives hitting levels that trigger losses. China’s CSI 300 benchmark has fallen about 4% thus far in 2024, extending last year’s 11% slide. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, which snowballs are mostly tied to, recently closed at their lowest levels since April 2020 and April 2022 respectively. (https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-snowball-derivatives-)

b. Derivatives (衍生品) are financial contracts, set between two or more parties, that derive their value from an underlying asset, group of assets, or benchmark. A derivative can trade on an exchange or over-the-counter. Prices for derivatives derive from fluctuations in the underlying asset.

c. Structured products are financial instruments whose performance or value is linked to that of an underlying asset, product, or index. These may include market indices, individual or baskets of stocks, bonds, and commodities, currencies, interest rates or a mix of these. (https://www.dbs.com.sg/treasures/investments/product)

中國6.3兆美元的股票拋售日益嚴重

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following :

China’s $6.3 Trillion Stock Selloff Is Getting Uglier by the Day

Abhishek Vishnoi and Charlotte Yang

Fri, January 19, 2024 at 6:49 a.m. PST

(Bloomberg) -- Chinese stocks just capped another dismal week, with a gauge of mainland firms listed in Hong Kong languishing at the bottom of global equity index rankings for the year so far.

Grim milestones have kept piling up in recent days: Tokyo has overtaken Shanghai as Asia’s biggest equity market, while India’s valuation premium over China has hit a record. Locally, a meltdown in Chinese shares is wreaking havoc on the nation’s asset management industry, pushing mutual fund closures to a five-year high.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has already lost 11% in 2024. Coming after a record four-year losing streak, the slump is reinforcing a structural shift that’s seeing everyone from active money managers to passive funds turn their back on the world’s second-largest stock market.

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index slipped as much as 2.2% at the start of US trading Friday, extending losses to a fifth consecutive day.

In all, some $6.3 trillion has been wiped out from the market value of Chinese and Hong Kong stocks since a peak reached in 2021, underscoring the challenge that Beijing faces as it seeks to arrest a decline in investor confidence. Authorities have ruled out the use of massive stimulus to revive the flagging economy, leaving traders wondering when things will improve.

“What we are seeing this year so far really is a continuation of what we saw last year,” John Lin, AllianceBernstein’s chief investment officer of China equities, said in an Jan. 17 interview on Bloomberg Television. “These squeezing-the-toothpaste type of stimulus policies so far haven’t been able to turn around the underlying bottom-up fundamentals of areas like the property sector.”

‘Waiting Game’

The HSCEI gauge plunged more than 6% this week and is on track to record its worst January performance in eight years. On the mainland, the CSI 300 Index has dropped in nine of the last 10 weeks. Signs that state funds likely bought exchange-traded funds and a decision by China’s largest brokerage to suspend short selling for some clients failed to halt the onshore benchmark’s losing run.

The headwinds buffeting the market are well documented: China’s real estate sector remains a trouble spot, deflationary pressures are building and a long-running feud between Beijing and Washington refuses to go away, with the US election set to take place later this year. In recent days, uncertainties about the trajectory of US interest rates and the threat of an imminent blowout of local stock derivatives have added to investor worries.

Asian fund managers have cut their allocation to China by 12 percentage points to a net 20% underweight, the lowest in more than a year, according to the latest Bank of America survey.

Managers of benchmark-tracking funds have sold a net $300 million of shares traded in mainland China and Hong Kong this month, according to a Morgan Stanley analysis. That’s a reversal from the last half of 2023, when they bought $700 million on a net basis even as stock indexes declined.

“China is a waiting game and we continue to be waiting,” said Mark Matthews, head of Asia research at Bank Julius Baer & Co., which is mostly avoiding Chinese equities.

Beijing’s efforts to reassure investors have been met with skepticism from investors, many of whom worry that authorities are behind the curve. While the People’s Bank of China took steps last month to pump cash into the financial system, it bucked widespread expectations for cutting a key policy rate on Monday.

Speaking to leaders at the World Economic Forum this week, Chinese Premier Li Qiang trumpeted his nation’s ability to hit its roughly 5% growth target for 2023 without flooding the economy with “massive stimulus.”

Right now, the loss of confidence is so severe that even attractive valuations are of little help. The MSCI China Index has never been this cheap versus the S&P 500 gauge from a forward earnings estimate perspective. Still, bets on a short-term rebound have failed to materialize.

“The government seems very sanguine about the economy,” said Xin-Yao Ng, an investment director for Asian equities at abrdn. “The market might not even trust the 5% growth figure, it certainly has a much more negative view on the economy and definitely believes Beijing needs a big fiscal response.”

Translation

（彭博）—中國股市剛結束了另一個慘淡的一星期，在香港上市的內地公司的指標, 今年以來在全球股票指數排名中墊底。

最近幾天，嚴峻的里程碑不斷湧現：東京已取代上海成為亞洲最大的股市，而印度相對於中國的估值溢價則創下歷史新高。 在中國當地，股市的暴跌正在對中國的資產管理業造成嚴重破壞，將互惠基金停止數量推至五年來新高。

恆生中國企業指數在2024 年已下跌11%。在創紀錄的四年連續下跌之後，這次暴跌正在強化結構性轉變，從主動型金基到被動型基金經理，所有人都對這家全球第二大股市不再理睬。

週五美國交易開盤，納斯達克金龍中國指數下跌 2.2%，連續第五天下跌。

自 2021 年達到高峰以來，中國內地和香港股市的市值總共蒸發了約 6.3 兆美元，這突顯了北京方面在遏制投資者信心下降方面面臨的挑戰。 當局已排除使用大規模刺激措施來重振萎靡不振的經濟的可能性，這讓交易員們想知道情況何時會有所改善。

AllianceBernstein 的中國股票首席投資官 John Lin 在 1 月 17 日接受彭博電視台採訪時表示， “今年迄今為止我們所看到的情況其實是去年所見的延續”; “到目前為止，這些擠牙膏式的刺激政策還未能扭轉房地產等領域自下而上的基本面。”

《一場等待遊戲》

恆生國企指數本週暴跌逾 6%，並有機會創下八年來最差的 1 月表現。 在大陸，滬深300指數在過去10週中有9週下跌。雖然有跡象國家基金可能購買了交易所交易基金，及中國最大的券商決定暫停部分客戶的賣空交易，均但未能阻止該在岸基準指數的跌勢。

衝擊市場的逆風是有跡可查的：中國的房地產行業仍然是一個麻煩點，通貨緊縮壓力正在積聚，北京和華盛頓之間的長期不和仍未消失，而美國大選將於今年晚些時候舉行。 最近幾天，美國利率走勢的不確定性, 以及本土股票衍生性商品即將爆發的威脅, 加劇了投資人的擔憂。

根據美國銀行的最新調查，亞洲基金經理人已將其對中國的份額削減了 12 個百分點，淨減持 20%，為一年多以來的最低水準。

摩根士丹利的分析顯示，基準追蹤基金的經理人本月已淨售出 3 億美元在中國大陸和香港交易的股票。 這與 2023 年下半年的情況相反，當時即使股指下跌，他們仍淨買進 7 億美元。

Bank Julius Baer & Co. 亞洲研究主管 Mark Matthews 表示: 「中國是一場等待遊戲，我們將繼續等待」, 該公司主要迴避中國股票。

北京安撫投資者的努力遭到了投資者的懷疑，其中許多人擔心當局是在這困局的背後。 儘管中國人民銀行上個月採取措施向金融體系注入資金，但周一卻違背了普遍預期的下調關鍵政策利率的期望。

中國總理李強本週在世界經濟論壇上向各國領導人發表講話，強調中國有能力在不採取「大規模刺激」的情況下實現 2023 年約 5% 的成長目標。

目前，信心喪失如此嚴重，即使具有吸引力的估值也無濟於事。 從遠期獲利預測的角度來看，MSCI 中國指數相對於標準普爾 500 指數從未如此便宜過。 儘管如此，押注短期反彈沒有形成。

abrdn 亞洲股票投資總監 Xin-Yao Ng 表示: 「政府似乎對經濟非常樂觀」; 「市場甚至可能不相信5%的成長數字，它對經濟的看法肯定要悲觀得多，並且肯定認為北京需要採取大規模的財政應對措施」。

       So, China seems confident that its economy will be all right although some $6.3 trillion has been wiped out from the market value of Chinese and Hong Kong stocks since a peak reached in 2021. Chinese Premier Li Qiang trumpets his nation’s ability to hit its roughly 5% growth target for 2023 without flooding the economy with “massive stimulus.” I am wondering who will benefit from this situation.

Note:

In its web-site abrdn says that the company is a global investment establishment that helps clients and customers plan, save and invest for the future. They manage and administer £496bn of assets on behalf of clients (as at 30 June 2023). They are structured around three businesses – Investments, Adviser and Personal – focusing on the changing needs of clients. By diversifying the group, they are positioning themselves for growth in a changing investment landscape. (https://www.abrdn.com/en-gb/corporate/about-us)

Research shows that elderly people who keep dogs have a 40% lower risk of developing dementia

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

イヌ飼育の高齢者 認知症発症リスクが40％低下の研究結果

2023年12月31日 6時25分

イヌを飼っている高齢者は、飼っていない人と比べて認知症を発症するリスクが40％低くなっていたとする研究結果を東京都健康長寿医療センターなどのグループが発表しました。

東京都健康長寿医療センターなどのグループは、都内で2016年からおよそ4年間にわたって行われた65歳以上の男女1万1000人余りの疫学調査のデータを基に認知症の発症とペットの飼育が関連するかどうかを調べました。

その結果、イヌを飼っている人は飼っていない人と比べて認知症を発症するリスクが40％低くなっていたということです。

一方で、ネコを飼っている人と飼っていない人では認知症の発症リスクに差はみられませんでした。

また、運動の習慣や社会的なつながりがある人も認知症のリスクが低くなっていましたが、これらに加えてイヌを飼っている人ではさらにリスクが低くなっていたということです。

グループによりますと、イヌの世話をすることで頻繁に散歩をしたり、飼い主どうしの立ち話などで社会とのつながりが生まれやすかったりすることが、リスクを下げる要因になっている可能性があるということです。

グループのメンバーで現在は国立環境研究所の谷口優主任研究員は「イヌを飼っている人特有の運動習慣や生活習慣が、認知症の予防につながる効果になっていると考えている」と話していました。

Translation

A group including the Tokyo Health and Geriatrics Center and others announced the results of a study showing that elderly people who owned dogs had a 40% lower risk of developing dementia than those who did not.

Groups including the Tokyo Metropolitan Health and Geriatrics Center conducted in Tokyo over a four-year period starting from 2016 an epidemiological survey over 11,000 men and women aged 65, and to base on collected data, to determine whether the onset of dementia and the ownership of pets could be related.

The results showed that people who owned dogs had a 40% lower risk of developing dementia compared to people who didn't own dogs.

On the other hand, there was no difference in the risk of developing dementia between people who owned cats and those who did not.

Also, while people who had a habit of exercise and social connections had a lower risk of dementia, on top of that, people who owned a dog had an even lower risk.

According to the group, taking care of a dog could allow for frequent walks and social connections between owners thus standing and chatting with each other occurred easily, which might be a factor in lowering the risk.

Taniguchi Yu (谷口優), a member of the group and currently a senior researcher at the National Institute for Environmental Studies, said, ``We believe that the exercise and lifestyle habits unique to dog owners are effective in preventing dementia.''

              So, elderly people who own dogs have a 40% lower risk of developing dementia than those who do not. Taking care of a dog may allow frequent walks and social connections between owners and thus offer opportunities for them to stand and chat with each other. To have more walks and social connections is good for your health.

政客不願談論的電動車電池的環境成本

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

The environmental costs of EV batteries that politicians don't tend to talk about

Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) News - Colin Butler

Sat, December 30, 2023 at 1:00 a.m. PST

Along with the massive recent manufacturing investments in electric vehicle (EV) technology and talks of a greener, decarbonized future, there are some not-so-green problems.

In its latest New Energy Finance report, Bloomberg News predicts there will be some 730 million EVs on the road by 2040. The year before, Bloomberg predicted half of all U.S. vehicle sales would be battery electric by 2030.

In Canada, too, there's talk of a big economic boost with the transition to EVs — including 250,000 jobs and $48 billion a year added to the nation's economy through the creation of a domestic supply chain.

Governments have already invested tens of billions into two EV battery manufacturing plants in southwestern Ontario. However, they come with the environmental dilemma of what to do with the millions of EV batteries when they reach the end of their life.

Dead battery dilemma

"The rules are non-existent," said Mark Winfield, a professor at York University in Toronto and co-chair of the school's Sustainable Energy Initiative. "There is nothing as we talk to agencies on both sides of the border, the federal, provincial, state levels.

"In the case of Ontario, the answer was actually that we we have no intention of doing anything about this."

When asked for its response, the Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks did not return a request for comment from CBC News.

Winfield said the fact there is no public policy on the disposal of EV batteries is concerning because a number of the chemicals and components used to make EV batteries, such as cadmium, arsenic and nickel are listed as toxic under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act (CEPA) and simply can't be thrown into a landfill.

"You would think given the nature of of these products and also the scale of the potential looming problem, as you know, when the EV sales move into the tens of millions and every one of those ultimately is going to result in an end-of-life battery. One would have expected regulators to be a little bit of further ahead of the curve."

Critical minerals come with costs

The environmental costs of a greener future in transportation don't stop at dead batteries. If the country carries through on its plan to build a home-grown supply chain for the critical minerals needed to make EV batteries, it could mean the development of a vast tract of unspoiled nature in Ontario's north.

To get the critical minerals necessary to build EV batteries, Canada will have to develop the Ring of Fire, a deposit of minerals discovered in Ontario's far north in 2007.

According to provincial data from 2023, more than 31,000 registered mining claims have been made in the region. Ontario's minister of mines spokesperson Dylan Moore said in December that Ontario is planning to unlock critical minerals in the Ring of Fire, but any new mine would be subject to provincial environmental standards.

             Mining claims jump in northern Ontario's Ring of Fire as EV battery interest grows

"There happens to be tremendous interest in the critical mineral potential in the Ring of Fire region to fuel the electric vehicle revolution," Moore told CBC News.

The region happens to be in the middle of an environmentally significant area called the Hudson's Bay Lowlands.

"We're talking about a huge wetland," said Dayna Scott, a professor with the Osgoode Law School at York University and the school's research chair in environmental law and justice in the green economy.

"The largest intact boreal forest remaining in the world and also a massive carbon storehouse."

In the Hudson's Bay Lowlands, there are an estimated 35 billion tonnes of carbon, acts as a major stopover for billions of migratory birds and is home to wolverines, caribou and lake sturgeon — all considered endangered, or species at risk by the federal government.

For years, Scott has studied the social, environmental and legal implications of bringing development to the Hudson's Bay Lowlands and its effect on the rights and interests of remote Indigenous communities there.

Inside the battle over Ontario's Ring of Fire

"They hold the inherent jurisdiction to be the decision-makers for those lands. They also hold a right of free, prior and informed consent, which comes from international law. That means [governments] need to get the consent of all of the communities that are going to be impacted by this major irreversible change to their way of life."

The Indigenous communities fall under the James Bay Treaty, or Treaty 9 and while some favour development, others are opposed.

To curry their favour, those for and against development are both using climate and the environment to justify their cause, Scott said.

She said those who want to mine critical minerals in the area argue that would lead to a reduction in emissions and save the planet, while those who want to leave the area untouched argue destroying one of the world's largest carbon sinks by developing it would only undo all those emission reductions from EV batteries.

While it's impossible to tell who's right, Scott said governments need buy-in from every First Nation in the Treaty 9 area or any development would be open to litigation — some rarely mentioned at news conferences or funding announcements about the upcoming switch to Canadian-made EV batteries.

"A lot of people who are interested in buying an electric vehicle don't want to see themselves as caught up in an ongoing process of Indigenous dispossession," Scott said. "If people did have to confront at what cost we are going to get these minerals, do we want to do it over Indigenous People's objections?

"I think that would give a lot of people in southern Ontario pause, probably."

Translation

隨著近期製造業對電動車 (EV) 技術的大規模投資以及對綠色、脫碳未來的討論，也發現一些不太綠色的問題。

彭博新聞社在其最新的《新能源財經》報告中預測，到2040 年，路上行駛的電動車數量將達到約7.3 億輛。前一年，彭博社預測，到2030 年，美國汽車銷量的一半將是電動車。

在加拿大，也有傳言稱，向電動車轉型將帶來巨大的經濟提振 - 包括透過創建國內供應鏈，創造 25 萬個就業崗位，並為國家經濟每年增加 480 億美元。

政府已向安大略省西南部的兩家電動車電池製造廠投資數百億美元。 然而，他們面臨著環境困境，即當數以百萬計的電動車電池達到壽命終點時如何處理它們。

電池沒電的困境

多倫多約克大學教授、亦是該校可持續能源倡議的聯合主席 Mark Winfield 表示：「規則根本不存在」; 「當我們與邊境兩側的聯邦、省、州各級的機構交談時，沒有任何結果」。

“就安大略省而言，答案實際上是我們無意對此採取任何行動。”

當被要求回應時，安大略省環境、保護和公園部沒有回應 CBC 新聞的置評請求。

Winfield 表示，事實上沒有關於電動車電池處置的公共政策這一事實令人擔憂，因為根據加拿大環境保護法（CEPA），用於製造電動車電池的許多化學物質和成分，例如鎘、砷和鎳，被列為有毒物質, 並且根本不能扔進垃圾掩埋場。

“你可能會認為，考慮到這些產品的性質, 以及潛在迫在的眉睫的問題的規模之時，正如你所知，當電動車銷量達到數千萬輛時，每一輛最終都將有到達電池壽命的終結。人們會期望監管機構能夠稍微預計困難的事情。”

關鍵礦物是有成本的

綠色交通未來的環境成本不僅限於電池寿命耗盡。 如果該國實施為製造電動車電池所需的關鍵礦物建立本土供應鏈的計劃，這可能意味著去開發安大略省北部大片未受破壞的自然環境。

為了獲得製造電動車電池所需的關鍵礦物，加拿大必須開發 “火環” ，這是 2007 年在安大略省最北部發現的礦藏。

根據 2023 年的省級數據，該地區已登記採礦權超過 31,000 份。 安大略省礦業部長發言人Dylan Moore 去年12月表示，安大略省正計劃開採火環地區的關鍵礦產，但任何新礦都將遵守省級環境標準。

     隨著電動車電池興趣的增長，安大略省北部火環地區的採礦索賠激增

Moore 告訴加拿大廣播公司新聞： “人們對火環地區的關鍵礦產潛力懷有極大的興趣，以推動電動車革命。”

該地區恰好位於 Hudson's Bay 低地的一個環境重要區域的中部。

約克大學 Osgoode 法學院教授兼該校環境法和綠色經濟正義研究主席 Dayna Scott 說:「我們談論的是一片巨大的濕地」。

 “世界上現存最大的完整北方森林，也是一個巨大的碳庫。”

Hudson's Bay低地估計有350 億噸碳，是數十億隻候鳥的主要中途停留地，也是狼獾、馴鹿和湖鱘的家園 - 所有這些都被聯邦政府視為瀕臨滅絕或處於危險中的物種。

多年來，Scott一直研究開發 Hudson's Bay 低地做成對社區、環境和法律的影響，以及對當地偏遠原住民社區權益的影響。

安大略火環之戰的內幕

“原住民擁有成為這些土地決策者的固有管轄權。他們還擁有來自國際法規定的自由、事先知情的同意權。這意味著[政府]需要獲得所有社區同意他們的生活方式將受到這一不可逆轉的重大變化的影響。”

原住民社區屬於《James Bay條約》, 即第 9 號條約的管轄範圍，有些人支持開發，有些人則反對。

Scott說，為了討好他們，支持和反對發展的人們正在利用氣候和環境來證明他們的事業是正當的。

她說，那些想要在該地區開採關鍵礦物的人認為，這將減少排放並拯救地球，而那些想要讓該地區保持原狀的人則認為，透過開發來破壞世界上最大的碳匯之一, 它只會抵消電動車電池的所有碳減排。

雖然無法判斷誰是對的，但Scott 表示，各國政府需要得到第9 號條約區域內每個原住民社區的支持，否則任何開發都將面臨訴訟 —— 這些內幕在新聞發布會, 或在關於電動車電池即將轉向加拿大製造的資助公告中很少提及。

Scott說：「許多有興趣購買電動車的人不希望看到自己陷入持續的原住民剝奪過程中」; 「如果人們確實必須面對我們要付出什麼代價才能獲得這些礦物，我們是否願意不顧及原住民的反對而這樣做？

“或許, 我認為這可能會讓安大略省南部的許多人停下來。”

              So, how to deal with the millions of EV batteries when they reach the end of their life is an environmental dilemma, similar to the challenge in dealing with old solar panels. When come to battery making, if Canada carries through on its plan to build a home-grown supply chain for the critical minerals needed to make EV batteries, it could mean the development of a vast tract of unspoiled nature in Ontario's north. It is interesting to see that those who want to mine critical minerals in the area argue that the development would lead to a reduction in emissions and save the planet, while those who want to leave the area untouched argue that destroying one of the world's largest carbon sinks by developing it would only undo all those emission reductions from EV batteries.

Note:

A boreal forest or snow forest, is a biome characterized by coniferous forests consisting mostly of pines, spruces, and larches. Boreal forest soil tends to be young and poor in nutrients, lacking the deep, organically enriched profile present in temperate deciduous forests. The colder climate hinders development of soil, and the ease with which plants can use its nutrients. (Wikipedia)

沙地阿拉伯、伊朗、阿聯酋、埃及、衣索比亞加入金磚國家行列

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

BRICS to Grow as Saudi, Iran, UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia Join Ranks

Ana Monteiro

Fri, December 29, 2023 at 3:17 a.m. PST

(Bloomberg) -- Membership of the BRICS group of emerging-market nations is set to double, with Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Egypt to join its ranks on Jan. 1, South Africa’s envoy to the bloc said.

Current members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa in August invited six other nations to become part of their group, pairing some of the planet’s largest energy producers with some of the biggest consumers among developing countries. Only Argentina declined the invitation after President Javier Milei, who took office this month, reversed his predecessor’s membership bid.

The five invitees sent senior-level representatives to a BRICS sherpa meeting in Durban, South Africa, earlier this month and they fully participated in the gathering, “a clear indication that they have accepted the invitation” to join, Anil Sooklal, Pretoria’s ambassador to the bloc, said in an interview Friday.

The new members will also send officials to a sherpa meeting in Moscow on Jan. 30, he said.

“BRIC” was coined in 2001 by economist Jim O’Neill, then at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., to draw attention to strong economic growth rates in Brazil, Russia, India and China. The term was intended as an optimistic scenario for investors amid market pessimism following the terrorist attacks in the US on Sept. 11 that year. The group held its first leaders’ summit in 2009 and invited South Africa to join a year later, adding another continent and the letter “S.”

About 30 countries want to establish ties with the bloc, Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov was cited by news agency Tass as saying this week.

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, will seek to become a member of BRICS within the next two years, Minister of Foreign Affairs Yusuf Tuggar said in November.

Except for India, the BRICS have underperformed their emerging-market peers over the last five years, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. US-led sanctions have put Russia off limits for many foreign investors, and some sectors in China — especially technology companies — have also been sanctioned or face potential investment bans.

Translation

（彭博）—南非駐金磚國集團特使表示，新興市場國家的金磚國家集團的成員數量將增加一倍，沙地阿拉伯、伊朗、阿拉伯聯合酋长國、衣索比亞和埃及將於1 月1 日加入金磚國家集團的行列。

目前的成員國巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國和南非在八月邀請了其他六個國家加入該集團，將地球上一些最大的能源生產國與發展中國家中一些最大的能源消費國配對。 只有阿根廷拒絕了邀請, 在本月上任的阿根廷總統 Javier Milei 推翻了前任的入盟申請。

比勒陀利亞駐金磚國集團大使 Anil Sooklal 週五在接受採訪時表示，五位受邀者派出高級代表參加了本月早些時候在南非德班舉行的金磚國家協調人會議，他們充分參加了這次聚會，「這明確表明他們已經接受了邀請」。

他說，新成員還將派官員參加 1 月 30 日在莫斯科舉行的協調人會議。

「BRIC」是由時任高盛集團公司經濟學家 Jim O’Neill 於 2001 年創造的，旨在引起人們對巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國強勁經濟成長率的關注。 該詞語的本意是在當年 9 月 11 日美國恐怖攻擊後市場悲觀的情況下為投資者提供樂觀的情景。 該組織於2009年舉行了首次領導人峰會，一年後邀請南非加入，增加了另一個大洲和字母 “S” 。

塔斯社本週引述俄羅斯外交部長拉夫羅夫的話說，大約有 30 個國家希望與該集團建立關係。

尼日利亞外交部長 Yusuf Tuggar 在 11 月表示，非洲人口最多的國家尼日利亞將尋求在未來兩年內成為金磚國家成員。

據彭博資訊稱，除印度外，金磚國家在過去五年中的表現均落後於新興市場國家同儕。 美國主導的製裁使許多外國投資者無法進入俄羅斯，而中國的一些產業 - 尤其是科技公司 - 也受到製裁或面臨潛在的投資禁令。

       So, we see the gradual growth in membership in BRICS. I am wondering if this organization could eventually be used as a political tool to challenge the economic influence of the US and its alliance.

習近平在毛澤東演說中宣揚替代西方資本主義的方案

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Xi Touts Alternative to Western Capitalism in Speech on Mao

Bloomberg News

Tue, December 26, 2023 at 7:14 p.m. PST

(Bloomberg) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping used a speech remembering Mao Zedong to push a framework the current leader rolled out recently to counter the West’s capitalist model.

The “central task” of the nation and its ruling Communist Party is “to build China into a stronger country and rejuvenate the Chinese nation on all fronts by pursuing Chinese modernization,” Xi said in Beijing on Tuesday, as he marked 130 years since Mao’s birth.

Xi described “Chinese modernization” — a vague concept he has been promoting since 2021 — as “a cause passed down from veteran revolutionaries including Mao Zedong” that is now “the solemn historical responsibility of today’s Chinese Communists.”

The Chinese leader has promoted that idea at events including last year’s leadership congress, describing it as an alternative to systems used by the US and its allies. The flagship People’s Daily has described Chinese modernization as containing unique features, including benefiting a large population, achieving “common prosperity” and developing peacefully.

By linking his own project to Mao’s legacy, Xi creates room for state media to tout him as an extension of the man remembered as the founder of a new China. That version of events largely glosses over Mao’s role in the famine-inducing Great Leap Forward of the 1950s and the chaotic Cultural Revolution of the 1960s and 70s.

Xi, whose government eliminated term limits in 2018, has spent his first decade-plus in office consolidating power to levels unseen since Mao. That campaign has left some investors worried his ambitions lack checks and balances, and his push to narrow the wealth gap may lead to sweeping income redistribution.

Some officials have in recent years called Xi lingxiu, or “leader,” a revered title of praise previously reserved for Mao. Xi has also moved to pack key positions with supporters, potentially making it harder for him to hear dissenting policy voices.

China’s propaganda machine has also stepped up efforts to draw parallels between Mao and Xi. A Communist Party research institute said in an article this month that Mao should be remembered for his “high achievements and strong morals.”

Then it added: “It is blessing for the party and the state, the people and the Chinese nation to have General Secretary Xi Jinping, another core of the party, leader of the people and commander-in-chief of the army who enjoys popular support.”

In his Tuesday speech, Xi also repeated the party’s lines on Taiwan, comments that come before the island that Beijing claims as its own chooses a new president next month.

“The motherland must and is bound to be reunified,” he said. China must “deepen cross-strait integration and development in all areas, and promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations.”

Translation

（彭博）—中國國家主席習近平發表紀念毛澤東的講話，推動現任領導人最近推出的框架，以對抗西方資本主義模式。

週二，習近平在北京發表演說紀念毛澤東同志出生130 週年之際中表示，國家和執政黨的「中心任務」是「把中華民族建設成為一個更加強大的國家，全面實現中華民族偉大復興，推進中國現代化」。

習近平將 “中國現代化” - 這是他自2021年以來一直在推動的一個模糊概念 - 描述為 “毛澤東等老革命家傳承下來的事業” ，現在它是 “當今中國共產黨人的莊嚴歷史責任” 。

這位中國領導人在包括去年的領導人代表大會在內的活動中推廣了這個想法，並將其描述為美國及其盟國使用的系統的替代方案。 旗艦刊物《人民日報》將中國的現代化描述為具有獨特的特徵，包括惠及廣大人民、實現「共同富裕」、和平發展。

透過將自己的計劃與毛澤東的遺產聯繫起來，習近平為官方媒體創造了空間，將他吹捧為新中國創始人的延伸。 這種版本的事件在很大程度上掩蓋了毛澤東在 1950 年代引發飢荒的大躍進以及 1960 年代和 1970 年代混亂的文化大革命中所扮演的角色。

習近平領導的政府於 2018 年取消了任期限制，他在執政的第一個十多年裡將權力鞏固到了自毛澤東以來從未見過的水平。 這場權力鞏固活動讓一些投資者擔心他的雄心壯志缺乏制衡，而他縮小貧富差距的努力可能會導致全面的收入再分配。

近年來，一些官員稱他為 “習領袖” ，或 “領袖” ，這是一個以前為毛澤東保留的受人尊敬的尊稱。 習近平也採取行動，把國家關鍵職位用他的支持者填滿了，這可能會讓他更難聽到不同的政策聲音。

中國的宣傳機器也加大力度將毛澤東和習近平相提並論。 一家共產黨研究機構本月在一篇文章中表示，毛澤東應該因其「崇高的成就和堅強的道德」而被人們銘記。

然後它補充說： “黨和國家，人民和中華民族都因有習近平總書記而有福氣，這是黨的另一個核心，享有民眾支持的人民領袖和軍隊總司令。

在周二的演講中，習近平還重申了共產黨在台灣問題上的立場，這些言論是在聲稱自己擁有的台灣的下個月選出新總統之前發表的。

他說： 「祖國必須而且一定要統一」。 中國必須「深化兩岸各領域融合發展，推動兩岸關係和平發展」。

              So, Xi Jinping is touting an alternative to western capitalism. Based on my observation on what China has done in the past two decades or so, my feeling is that the Chinese concept of modernization is in a way only copying things that western countries have already done, as least in two major respects: economics and military. Under the idea “to build China into a stronger country”, economically China depends on land revenue to fund local construction works and to fight poverty. It sets up a modern stock market, it earns profits through trading with the outside world in the name of Belt and Road projects (to invest and earn money, also to create soft power). On the military side, it builds its own space station, builds more modern aircraft carriers. At the foreign relation front, as a “big” country, China is claiming sovereignty in the south China sea and building military bases on some islands. This expansive idea has led to conflicts and disputes with its neighbors such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Japan (over the Senkaku Islands) and Taiwan (over sovereignty issues), and causing uneasiness in Indonesia and Malaysia. China’s militarization of some islands in the south China sea also angers the US.

I think what Xi is touting is merely an autocratic way to rule China by top down manage, and this political system needs to sacrifice individual freedom and citizen rights (e.g. the right to have general elections) for the greater good of the country and for administrative efficiency. This contrast with capitalistic countries that do things bottom up, and that rulers are picked by a universal voting system. Previously, China under Mao Zedong (1893-1976) had tried to rush into communism but failed, and many people suffered from political turmoil from the Cultural Revolution (1966-76) initiated by Mao as the absolute leader. When this Revolution was over, new communist leaders began to rethink their future. From the late 1970s, China changed course by becoming friends of Western countries, in particular the US, and eventually reached the 2^nd position in economic size globally. Now Xi believes that he has learned from the Mao’s failure, and probably also from the collapse of the communist USSR in 1991. He is trying to rejuvenate socialism in China (he humbly describes China’s political system as socialism, a stage before reaching communism). Meanwhile I note that capitalism in the west has come a long way since the US independent in 1776 and the French revolution in 1789, both events were people’s struggle for the establishment of a fair, open and democratic society. Currently, between China and the US, there is a competition to show which is the better system to run a country. Let’s see who will prevail, and the price we will pay for this competition.