Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:
China Edging Out Russia as Sanctions Redraw Kazakhstan
Trade (2/2)
Nariman Gizitdinov
Tue, June 6, 2023 at 5:36 a.m. PDT
(continue)
Outside the Perimeter
“We aren’t within the perimeter of the sanctions and we do
not support them, especially against our main trading partners,” Zhumangarin
said. “But we comply with these sanctions and will continue to comply. And this
is purely economic policy.”
The world’s largest landlocked country is the biggest global miner of uranium and a top producer of commodities such as ferrochrome. Transit is like “fresh air” for Kazakhstan’s mining and metallurgical industries, Zhumangarin said.
For Kazakhstan, Russia was long an outlet to the outside world, enabling maritime access and creating an entry point into a much larger market thanks to low trade barriers and established supply lines.
The two countries are members of a customs union and share the world’s second-longest frontier after the US-Canada border, with a pipeline linked to the Russian port of Novorossiysk transporting about 80% of Kazakh oil exports.
The calculus for Kazakhstan is changing after the invasion.
The movement of goods through Russia has become more difficult and some of its sanctioned companies could no longer receive Kazakh raw materials, Zhumangarin said. And as more Russian producers focus on the domestic market, they’re crowding out Kazakh exports, he said.
Though overall trade with Russia last quarter was up 10% from a year earlier, according to Zhumangarin, the ripple effects of sanctions have forced Kazakhstan to adjust by starting to re-export more items, building up local production and scrutinizing the movement of goods.
“All groups of sanctioned goods are being monitored,” Zhumangarin said.
As trade opportunities narrow with Russia, Kazakhstan is looking east to China and across the Caspian to Iran — and then to the Gulf region, India and beyond. “The Chinese direction is a priority,” Zhumangarin said.
At last month’s meeting with Xi — during the first in-person summit of Central Asian leaders in China — Tokayev set the goal of nearly doubling trade with China to $40 billion by 2030.
Chinese companies have already started to assemble vehicles in Kazakhstan, which expects other auto brands like Chery to follow soon, Zhumangarin said.
Kazakhstan has meanwhile started to ship grain to China and is now in talks to export meat there. In addition to two existing rail terminals linking Kazakhstan with China, it’s building another and plans a fourth link, Zhumangarin said.
China has also taken interest in a trade corridor that runs through Kazakhstan from Southeast Asia to Georgia in the Caucasus, creating a springboard to reach European countries. The trans-Caspian transport route would accommodate some goods diverted from Russia along with additional trade traffic, according to Zhumangarin.
Transport Hub
“We are exploring the possibilities of Kazakhstan as a transport and logistics hub, and not only to Russia or Belarus,” Zhumangarin said. “There are more attractive markets. Southeast Asia has a huge volume of goods to move to Europe.”
Now that Russia is no longer a destination for some Kazakh products, it’s working to diversify supplies with shipments of iron ore to China and talks to start its supplies to Europe, Zhumangarin said.
Fearful of getting caught up in sanctions, Kazakhstan must thread a needle.
“If Kazakhstan comes under sanctions, it may simply not withstand the pressure,” Zhumangarin said. “Kazakhstan won’t be a territory through which sanctions are bypassed.”
(Updates with Kazakh deputy premier’s comment under ‘Outside the Perimeter’ subheadline.)
Translation
（繼續）
範圍之外
Zhumangarin 說: “我們不在製裁範圍之內，我們不支持制裁，尤其是針對我們的主要貿易夥伴”。 “但我們遵守這些制裁，並將繼續遵守。 這純粹是經濟政策。”
這個世界上最大的內陸國家是全球最大的鈾礦開採國，也是鉻鐵等大宗商品的最大生產國。 Zhumangarin 說，過境對哈薩克斯坦的採礦和冶金行業來說就像是 “新鮮空氣”。
對於哈薩克斯坦來說，長期以來俄羅斯一直是通往外部世界的出口，由於貿易壁壘低和供應線成熟，它可以實現海上通道並為進入更大的市場創造切入點。
兩國是關稅同盟的成員，擁有僅次於美加邊境的世界第二長邊境線，一條與俄羅斯新羅西斯克港相連的管道輸送了哈薩克斯坦約
80% 的石油出口。
在入侵發生後，哈薩克斯坦的考量正在發生變化。
Zhumangarin 說，通過俄羅斯的貨物流動變得更加困難，一些受制裁的公司無法再接收哈薩克斯坦的原材料。 他說，隨著越來越多的俄羅斯生產商專注於國內市場，他們正在排擠哈薩克斯坦的出口。
根據 Zhumangarin 的說法，雖然上個季度與俄羅斯的整體貿易比去年同期增長了 10%，但制裁的連鎖反應迫使哈薩克斯坦做出調整，開始再出口更多商品，建立當地生產並審查貨物流動。
Zhumangarin 說: “所有類別受制裁商品都受到監控” 。
隨著與俄羅斯的貿易機會減少，哈薩克斯坦正在向東尋找中國，並穿過裏海到伊朗 - 然後是海灣地區、印度及及更遠地區。Zhumangarin說: “中國方向是當務之急” 。
在上個月與習近平的會晤中 - 第一次中亞領導人親自會面的中國峰會期間 – Tokayev 設定了到 2030 年與中國的貿易額增長近一倍至 400 億美元的目標。
Zhumangarin 說，中國公司已經開始在哈薩克斯坦組裝汽車，預計Chery等其他汽車品牌也將很快跟隨。
與此同時，哈薩克斯坦已開始向中國出口糧食，目前正在就向中國出口肉類進行談判。 Zhumangarin 說，除了連接哈薩克斯坦和中國的兩個現有鐵路終接點外，它還在建設另一個鐵路終接點，並計劃建設第四條接駁線。
中國還對從東南亞穿過哈薩克斯坦，到達高加索地區的格魯吉亞的貿易走廊感興趣，為通往歐洲國家創造了一個跳板。 據 Zhumangarin 稱，跨裏海運輸路線將容納一些從俄羅斯轉移的貨物以及額外的貿易流量。
交通樞紐
Zhumangarin 說，現在俄羅斯不再是一些哈薩克斯坦產品的目的地，並正在努力透過向中國出口鐵礦來實現供應多元化，並就開始向歐洲供應進行談判。
由於害怕捲入制裁，哈薩克斯坦必須在衝突的力量之間取得平衡。
Zhumangarin 說: “如果哈薩克斯坦受到製裁，它可能根本無法承受壓力” 。 “哈薩克斯坦不會成為繞過制裁的領土。”
So, the
economic position between China and Russia in
Central Asia is moving toward a new equilibrium as international sanction over
the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine has transformed the commerce direction for
Kazakhstan. The influence of China in Central Asia is increasing.
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