Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:
China’s Big-City Homeowners Cash Out as Wealth Dream
Fades (1/2)
Bloomberg News
Sun, June 18, 2023 at 4:00 p.m. PDT
(Bloomberg) -- Chinese homeowners are losing conviction in
their decades-long belief that property is a reliable store of wealth, undermining
even coveted markets like Shanghai and adding pressure on authorities to find
new sources of economic growth.
Asking prices in the financial hub have slumped for three
straight months, falling to the lowest level since before China emerged from
Covid lockdowns at the end of last year, according to data compiled by
Centaline Group.
Despite surging inventory, transactions in the city tanked by one third to about 16,000 units in May compared with March, the Economic Observer reported this month.
Interviews with homeowners, real estate agents and analysts suggest the downturn has been fueled by waning faith that property will always be one of China’s safest investments.
While that shift in mindset has in some ways been welcomed by policy makers seeking to rein in speculative buying, the risk of a deeper-than-desired slump is rising at a time when the broader economy is losing momentum. Longer term, authorities may struggle to replace real estate as a key driver of growth and bulwark of the nation’s vast middle class.
“Selling pressure is really piling up here” in Shanghai, said Jun Li, chief investment officer at Power Sustainable (Shanghai) Investment Management, a Canadian financial firm. “It seems homeowners have reached a consensus that the market has peaked.”
Cashing Out
Song, a banker who recently sold his apartment in Shanghai’s
prestigious Jing’an district for about 10 million yuan ($1.4 million), said he
views this as one of the last windows to cash out of the property boom.
The 35-year-old still owns other properties in China with his family, but wants to reduce exposure to the sector due to expectations of property taxes and a prolonged slowdown in the sector. He asked to be identified by his last name for privacy reasons.
His experience is matched across the country. Existing home prices in 100 cities recorded the biggest decline in May since at least 2022, according to data compiled by real estate research firm China Index Academy.
“Shanghai has the most sluggish existing-home market in China right now,” said Yan Yuejin, a research director at E-house China Research and Development Institute. “Across the nation, supply and demand in the secondary market have also deteriorated.”
Homeowners in the southern metropolis of Shenzhen have cut prices to the lowest since October 2016, according to data compiled by Centaline Group.
People are seeking to sell due to concerns about the economic outlook, financing needs for cash-strapped businesses and unemployment, Li said.
In Hangzhou, the home base for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., a seller in the suburbs cut asking prices by 17% after failing to find a buyer in six months, according to a housing agent surnamed Gong, who requested to be identified by her last name because she wasn’t authorized to speak publicly.
The weakening sentiment in China’s real estate sector is prompting policy makers to weigh new support measures to keep the economy afloat, Bloomberg reported this month.
Regulators are considering reducing down payments in some non-core neighborhoods of major cities, lowering agent commissions on transactions, and further relaxing restrictions for residential purchases.
(to be continued)
（彭博社）- 中國業主幾十年來一直相信房地產是可靠的財富儲存手段，現在正在失去信心，甚至削弱了像上海這樣令人垂涎的市場，並給當局尋找新的經濟增長來源增加了壓力。
由中原地產編制的數據顯示，該金融中心的要價已連續三個月下跌，跌至到去年年底中國解除新冠封鎖之前以來的最低水平。
據《經濟觀察報》本月報導，儘管庫存激增，但 5 月份該市成交量較 3 月份下降了三分之一，至約 16,000 套。
對業主、房地產經紀人和分析師的採訪表明，對房地產將永遠是中國最安全的投資之一的信心減弱，加劇了經濟低迷。
儘管這種思維方式的轉變在某種程度上受到了尋求遏制投機性購買的政策制定者的歡迎，但在整體經濟失去動力之際，經濟衰退程度超出預期的風險正在上升。 從長遠來看，當局可能很難取代房地產作為經濟增長的主要驅動力和國家廣大中產階級的堡壘。
加拿大金融公司Power Sustainable（上海）投資管理公司首席投資官Jun Li表示，上海的 “拋售壓力確實在堆積” 。 “看來業主們已經達成共識，認為市場已經見頂。”
兌現金
Song是一名銀行家，最近以約 1,000 萬元人民幣（合
140 萬美元）的價格出售了位於上海著名Jing’an 區的公寓，他表示，他認為這是從房地產熱潮中套現的最後窗口之一。
他是 35 歲仍與家人在中國擁有其他房產，但由於對房產稅的預期和該行業長期放緩，他希望減少對該行業的投資。 出於隱私原因，他要求透露自己的姓氏。
他的經驗在全國范圍內都是吻合的。 房地產研究公司中國指數研究院編制的數據顯示，5月份100個城市的現房價格錄得至少2022年以來的最大跌幅。
易居中國研究院研究總監 Yan Yuejin 表示： “上海目前是中國現房市場最疲軟的。” “從全國范圍來看，二級市場的供需也出現惡化。”
中原地產編制的數據顯示，南方大都市深圳的業主已將房價降至 2016 年 10 月以來的最低水平。
Jun Li說，由於擔憂經濟前景、企業因現金短缺的融資需求和失業，人們正在尋求出售房產。
一位因為無權公開發言, 要求透露她自己姓龔的房產經紀人表示，在阿里巴巴集團控股有限公司總部所在地的杭州，一名郊區賣家在六個月內未能找到買家後，將要求價降低了 17%。
據彭博社本月報導，中國房地產行業的疲軟情緒正促使政策制定者權衡新的支持措施，以保持經濟的發展。
監管機構正在考慮減少大城市一些非核心街區的首付、降低代理交易佣金、進一步放寬住宅限購等。
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