消費者支出數據疲弱，中國經濟形勢惡化

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China Economy Gloom Worsens with Weak Consumer Spending Data

Bloomberg News

Sun, June 25, 2023 at 10:05 p.m. PDT

(Bloomberg) -- China’s consumer-driven recovery is showing more signs of losing momentum as spending slows on everything from holiday travel to cars and homes, adding to expectations for more stimulus to support the economy.

Domestic travel spending during the recent holiday for the dragon-boat festival was lower than pre-pandemic levels, according to official data released this weekend. Home sales figures are below the level in previous years, while estimates for June car sales showed a drop from a year ago.

The rebound in consumption after China shed its Covid controls has propelled growth so far this year, but confidence is weak and evidence is mounting that the economy may need more help. After the central bank cut policy rates earlier this month, economists raised their expectations for more monetary and fiscal stimulus, and state-run media outlets have also published a series of articles in recent days highlighting possible avenues of support.

The holiday tourism data pointed to “fading post-Covid recovery momentum for in-person services,” Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc., wrote in a Sunday research note. He noted the average spending per trip was about 16% lower than in 2019, “implying either a weaker intention to spend or less purchasing power.”

“As pent-up demand fades and the risk of an economic double-dip becomes more real in coming months, we expect in-person services consumption growth to weaken further,” Lu wrote.

Weakness in mainland stocks continued as trading resumed after holidays, with the CSI 300 Index sliding as much as 1.6% before paring some of the losses. Consumer staples and financials were among the worst-performing sectors.

The decline in mainland shares was partly because “the holiday tourism data was not as good as the Labor Day holiday one,” said Willer Chen, a senior research analyst at Forsyth Barr Asia.

Not all of the recent data suggests a slowdown, with box office revenue reaching the second-highest amount on record for the dragon-boat holiday, the official Xinhua News Agency reported. But other indicators provide evidence that spending isn’t gaining momentum.

Home sales in major cities were muted through the first few weeks of June and over the holiday period, the 21st Century Business Herald reported, citing research analysts. Passenger car sales in the month are expected to have dropped nearly 6% from last year, according to preliminary estimates from China’s Passenger Car Association.

Growing concern over growth have fueled speculation about the possibility of increased stimulus this year.

Last week, Wang Huning — the No. 4 official in China’s ruling Communist Party — held a meeting with representatives of other Chinese political parties to discuss policy suggestions for reviving consumption. Then on Monday, two state-run securities newspapers floated a series of suggestions from analysts on policy options Beijing could consider.

One fiscal measure would be to accelerate the sale of special local government bonds — a key source of infrastructure funding — so that local authorities use most of their quota by the end of the third quarter, according to the China Securities Journal, citing economist Gao Ruidong at Everbright Securities. Local governments have so far been been slow to use their quota this year.

Shanghai Securities News, meanwhile, reported that further monetary easing — including cuts to interest rates and the amount of cash banks need to keep in reserve — are likely in the second half of the year.

However any stimulus is unlikely to be large in scale, according to Louis Kuijs, chief economist for Asia Pacific at S&P Global Ratings. The firm cut its forecast for China’s 2023 gross domestic product growth to 5.2% from 5.5%, citing the uneven recovery.

The government could still consider measures like easing housing purchasing restrictions and mortgage down-payment requirements, along with possible “fiscal support for consumption,” Kuijs wrote in a Sunday report. While the “recovery in consumer confidence is slow,” he said, some retail sales and discretionary spending data has held up, suggesting an expansion through the rest of this year and into 2024.

 --With assistance from Shikhar Balwani.

Translation

（彭博社） - 隨著假期旅行、汽車和住房等各方面支出放緩，中國消費者驅動的復蘇顯示出更多失去動力的跡象，這增加了人們預期有更多刺激措施來支持經濟。

根據本週末發佈的官方數據，最近端午節期間的國內旅遊支出低於大流行前的水平。 房屋銷售數據低於往年水平，而 6 月份汽車銷售預測則較去年同期有所下降。

中國放鬆對新冠病毒的控制後，消費反彈推動了今年迄今為止的增長，但信心疲弱，越來越多的證據表明經濟可能需要更多幫助。 在央行本月早些時候下調政策利率後，經濟學家提高了預期會有更多貨幣和財政刺激措施，官方媒體最近幾天也發表了一系列文章，強調可能的支持途徑。

Nomura Holdings Inc.首席中國經濟學家 Lu Ting 在周日的一份研究報告中寫道，假日旅遊數據表明 “疫情過後，個人服務的復蘇勢頭正在減弱” 。 他指出，每次旅行的平均支出比 2019 年下降了約 16%， “這意味著消費意願減弱或購買力下降。”

Lu寫道: “隨著被壓抑的需求消退以及未來幾個月經濟二次探底的風險變得更加現實，我們預計面對面的個人服務消費增長將進一步減弱” 。

隨著節後復牌，內地股市繼續弱勢，滬深300指數一度下跌1.6%，隨後收復部分跌幅。 消費必需品和金融是表現最差的行業之一。

Forsyth Barr Asia高級研究分析師Willer Chen表示，內地股市下跌的部分原因是 “假期旅遊數據不如勞動節假期數據” 。

據官方新華社報導，並非所有近期數據都表明經濟放緩，票房收入達到端午假期有記錄以來的第二高。 但其他指標證明消費動力並未增加。

據《21世紀經濟報導》援引研究分析師的話報導，6月前幾周和假期期間，主要城市的房屋銷售低迷。 據中國乘聯會初步預測，本月乘用車銷量預計較去年下降近6%。

對經濟增長的日益擔憂引發了人們對今年可能加大刺激力度的猜測。

上週，中國執政黨共產黨第四號官員王滬寧與中國其他政黨代表舉行會議，討論振興消費的政策建議。 隨後，週一，兩家國有證券報紙就北京方面可能考慮的政策選擇提出了分析師的一系列建議。

《中國證券報》援引就職於光大證券的經濟學家 Gao Ruidong 的話說，一項財政措施是加快發行地方政府特別債券（基礎設施資金的主要來源），以便地方政府在第三季度尾用完大部分配額。。 迄今為止，地方政府今年的配額使用進展緩慢。

與此同時，《上海證券報》報導稱，下半年可能會進一步放鬆貨幣政策，包括降低利率和銀行需要保留的現金儲備量。

然而，標普全球評級亞太區首席經濟學家 Louis Kuijs 表示，任何刺激措施的規模都不太可能很大。 該公司將中國 2023 年國內生產總值 (GDP) 增長預測從 5.5% 下調至 5.2%，理由是複蘇不平衡。 

Kuijs 在周日的報告中寫道，政府仍可以考慮放寬住房購買限制和抵押貸款首付要求等措施，以及有可能的 “消費財政支持” 。 他表示，雖然 “消費者信心恢復緩慢” ，但一些零售銷售和可自由支配支出數據保持穩定，表明今年剩餘時間和 2024 年經濟將有所擴張。

So, China’s consumer-driven recovery is showing signs of slowing down, people are expecting more government stimulus to support the economy in the second half of the year that may including cuts to interest rates. The expected stimulus probably will affect people’s financial planning for the coming months.