達旺：中國夢寐以求的印度寺院小鎮（2/2）

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Tawang: The Indian monastery town coveted by China (2/2)

Anbarasan Ethirajan - BBC News

Wed, March 8, 2023 at 9:17 p.m. PST

(continue)

For China, Tawang offers an entry point to Arunachal Pradesh and the rest of India's north-east.

Some experts think Beijing wants to bring Buddhist holy sites, like Tawang, under its control to cement its authority over Tibet. When the current Dalai Lama fled to India in 1959, he reached Tawang first after crossing mountains by foot.

There's also suspicion among some Chinese observers that given the ethnic link between the cross-border communities, Tawang could be used to whip up any future Tibetan uprising.

China's claims to Arunachal Pradesh have become more assertive over the past 20 years, but it appears it's been willing to trade.

Liu Zongyi, a senior fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, says Tawang was central to a deal China offered India during talks in 2006.

"On the premise of recovering Tawang, China was willing to give up its claim for sovereignty over most parts of southern Tibet [Arunachal Pradesh]… in exchange for India's recognition of China's sovereignty and control over Aksai Chin," Mr. Liu told the BBC.

He said the offer didn't succeed because India hadn't been willing to give up its interests in the east, especially over Tawang, and was also not ready to make concessions on Aksai Chin - currently under Chinese control.

Shyam Saran, India's foreign secretary at that time, said he didn't remember any such proposal.

"We never got down to any bargaining on how much territory you are willing to give up, how much territory we are willing to trade off. That stage never came up," Mr Saran said.

Border negotiations have continued in the years since, but made no progress. The two sides met in Beijing in February for their first in-person talks in three years.

India's official position remains maintaining the status quo until a final settlement, but Chinese observers are wary.

Mr. Zhou, the former PLA officer, says Indian intransigence has generated suspicion.

"In China there are some people who say the Indian attitude is like - mine is mine and yours is also mine. They believe that as India is in control of the eastern sector, therefore they are trying their best to grab more land in the west in Ladakh," Mr. Zhou said.

According to Mr. Liu, India has over decades adopted an "offensive defence policy, constantly encroaching on Chinese territory across the LAC and occupying the military commanding heights in the border areas".

Such remarks mirror criticisms of China's approach to territory that India regards as its own. "The Chinese keep moving the goal posts or shifting their position," says Mr. Saran.

With both sides showing little flexibility, Mr. Zhou thinks resolving the border dispute should be left to the future.

But many in India feel a delay could only be advantageous to China, which has vastly increased its military and economic might in the last few decades.

"As the power asymmetry between the two sides keeps growing, I think we should expect a much more assertive China," said Mr. Saran.

No one expects a war to break out anytime soon, given how much India and China value their strong trade relations. But neither shows any sign of compromise.

As both sides vie for control on the ground, clashes like the recent one near Tawang only become more likely - all it would need is a spark for things to flare up.

Translation

（繼續）

對於中國來說，達旺提供了進入阿魯納恰爾邦和印度東北部其他地區的入口。

一些專家認為，北京希望將達旺等佛教聖地置於其控制之下，以鞏固其對西藏的權威。 現任達賴喇嘛1959年逃往印度時，先是翻山越嶺到達旺。

一些中國觀察家還懷疑，鑑於跨境社區之間的種族聯繫，達旺可能會被用來煽動未來的西藏起義。

中國對阿魯納恰爾邦的主權要求在過去 20 年中變得更加進取，但似乎一直願意進行交換。

上海國際問題研究院高級研究員Liu Zongyi說，達旺是中國在 2006 年會談期間,向印度提出的一項協議的核心。

Liu先生告訴英國廣播公司說:“在收回達旺的前提下，中國願意放棄對藏南大部分地區[阿魯納恰爾邦]的主權要求……以換取印度承認中國對Aksai Chin的主權和控制權，”。

他說，這一提議沒有成功，因為印度不願放棄其在東部的利益，尤其是達旺地區的利益，而且也不准備在對目前處於中國控制下的Aksai Chin作出讓步。

當時的印度外交大臣Shyam Saran說他不記得有過這樣的提議。

Saran先生說:“我們從來沒有就你願意放棄多少領土、我們願意交換多少領土進行任何討價還價。那個階段從來沒有出現過”。

從那以後，邊界談判一直在繼續，但沒有取得任何進展。 雙方於 2 月在北京舉行了三年來的首次面對面會談。

印度的官方立場是在最終解決之前維持現狀，但中國觀察人士持小心的態度。

前解放軍軍官Zhou先生說，印度的不妥協態度引起了懷疑。

Zhou先生說“在中國，有些人說印度的態度是 - 我的就是我的，你的也是我的。他們認為，由於印度控制著東部地區，因此他們正在盡最大努力在Ladakh西部攫取更多土地”。

據Liu先生，印度幾十年來一直奉行 “進攻性防禦政策，不斷越過實控線侵佔中國領土，佔領邊境地區的軍事制高點”。

這些言論非常相似印度看中國怎樣對待印度自己, 批評認為領土是自己的做法。 Saran先生說: “中國人一直在移動龍門柱或改變他們的立場”。

由於雙方都沒有表現出多少靈活性，Zhou先生認為邊界爭端的解決應該留待未來解決。

但許多印度人認為，拖延只會對中國有利，因為中國在過去幾十年裏大大增強了其軍事和經濟實力。

Saran先生說： “隨著雙方力量不對稱的不斷加劇，我認為我們應該預計會有一個更加绌绌迫人的中國。”

考慮到印度和中國對兩國牢固貿易關係的重視程度，沒有人預計戰爭會很快爆發。 但兩者都沒有表現出任何妥協的跡象。

隨著雙方爭奪地面控制權，像最近在達旺附近發生的衝突只會變得更有可能發生 - 它只需要一點火花就可以爆發。

       So, Tawang hit the headlines in December 2022 after the first clashes there in years. India said Chinese soldiers encroach into its territory and "unilaterally tried to change the status quo". This border dispute between India and China can be a potential flashpoint for future conflicts. But it seems that no one expects a war to break out anytime soon, given how much India and China value their strong trade relations. Furthermore, I think China will be too busy to deal with this border confrontation in view of its conflict with the US in the South China sea, and also the on-going Russian invasion into Ukraine.

達旺：中國夢寐以求的印度寺院小鎮（1/2）

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Tawang: The Indian monastery town coveted by China (1/2)

Anbarasan Ethirajan - BBC News

Wed, March 8, 2023 at 9:17 p.m. PST

High in the Himalayas, the holy town of Tawang is one of the most intractable issues in the border dispute between India and China - and a potential flashpoint for future conflict.

Along snow-capped ridges to its north, soldiers from Asia's two biggest armies face off, sometimes just a few hundred metres apart.

Last December, they clashed in what some experts saw as a worrying sign of how things could escalate.

Tawang, a pilgrimage site for Tibetan Buddhists perched some 3,000m (10,000ft) above sea level, is home to India's largest Buddhist monastery.

For this reason and because of its strategic location, it's long been the focus of tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors.

The town is claimed by China. Tibet, annexed by China in 1950, lies just 35km (22 miles) to the north.

"It's not just the Tawang sector," Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the Chinese People's Liberation Army, told the BBC.

"The entire Arunachal Pradesh [state], which we call southern Tibet, has been illegally occupied by India - it's non-negotiable."

Tawang hit the headlines in December after the first clashes there in years. India said Chinese soldiers encroached into its territory and "unilaterally tried to change the status quo".

China said its troops were on routine patrol on their side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which separates Chinese and Indian held territory, and had been "blocked by the Indian army illegally crossing the line". 

The fight that ensued reportedly left several soldiers injured on both sides. It followed a far more serious clash in 2020 at the other end of the disputed frontier.

In a mass brawl in Ladakh's Galwan valley, 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese troops were killed - it was the first fatal confrontation over the border in 45 years and highlighted the risks faced as the rivals try to further their strategic goals.

Since then, tensions have escalated, with both sides deploying tens of thousands of troops with heavy armaments along the disputed border.

Claims are being reinforced in other ways too.

In mid-February India announced plans to invest in more than 660 "vibrant villages" to encourage locals near the border to stay. The move was seen as a response to reports of model villages on China's side.

India is also promoting tourism in Arunachal Pradesh with hotels, restaurants and home-stays springing up in Tawang and surrounding areas.

India and China share a frontier that isn't fully demarcated, and have overlapping territorial claims. India says it is 3,488km long; China puts it at around 2,000km.

Of all the disputed areas, Tawang remains high up on China's list of claims.

It was among areas taken during a brief war in 1962 that ended in a humiliating defeat for India. Thousands of PLA troops overran Indian positions before withdrawing.

"Tawang is indispensable to China. The Tibetan spiritual leader the sixth Dalai Lama was born there [in the 17th Century]," said Mr Zhou, who attended India-China border talks as a military expert in the mid-1990s.

"What better evidence do you need to prove that it's Chinese territory?"

India asserts its boundary claim based on the 1914 McMahon line, named after the British foreign secretary of colonial India.

China refuses to accept the line - it runs from the east of Bhutan across the Himalayas and puts the whole of Arunachal Pradesh on the Indian side.

(to be continued)

Translation

聖城達旺位於喜馬拉雅山的高處，是中印邊界爭端中最棘手的問題之一，也是未來衝突的潛在導火線。

沿著北部白雪皚皚的山脊，來自亞洲最大的兩支軍隊的士兵對峙，有時相距僅幾百米。

去年 12 月，他們發生衝突，一些專家認為這是顯示事態可能升級的令人擔憂的跡象。

達旺是藏傳佛教徒的朝聖地，位於海拔約 3,000 米（10,000 英尺），是印度最大的佛教寺院所在地。

由於這個原因以及它的戰略位置，它長期以來一直是這兩個擁有核武器為鄰國之間緊張關係的焦點。

中國聲稱對該鎮擁有主權。 西藏位於北部僅 35 公里（22 英里) 處, 於1950年被中國吞併。

中國人民解放軍退役大校Zhou Bo告訴 BBC: “不僅僅是達旺地區” 。

 “整個Arunachal Pradesh[邦] ，我們稱之為西藏南部，已被印度非法佔領 - 這是沒有妥協的餘地。”

去年 12 月，達旺在發生多年來的首次沖突後成為頭條新聞。 印度稱中國士兵侵入其領土並“單方面試圖改變現狀”。

中國表示，其軍隊在分隔中國和印度控制領土的實際控制線（LAC）的中國一側進行例行巡邏，“被非法越線的印度軍隊封阻”。

據報導，隨後發生的戰鬥導致雙方數名士兵受傷。 此前，2020 年在有爭議邊界的另一端發生了更為嚴重的衝突。

在Ladakh's Galwan河谷的一場大規模鬥毆中，20 名印度士兵和 4 名中國士兵喪生 - 這是 45 年來邊界上的第一次致命對抗，突顯了對手試圖推進其戰略目標時所面臨的風險。

此後，緊張局勢升級，雙方都在有爭議的邊界沿線部署了數万名攜帶重型武器的士兵。

對該處擁有主權的聲稱也在其他方面加強。

2 月中旬，印度宣布計劃投資到 660 多個 “活力村莊”，以鼓勵邊境附近的當地人留下來。 此舉被視為對中方示範村報導的回應。

印度也在推動Arunachal Pradesh的旅遊業發展，酒店、餐館和民宿在達旺及周邊地區如雨後春筍般湧現。

印度和中國有一個沒有完全劃定的邊界，並且有重疊的領土主張。 印度說它長 3,488 公里； 中國將其定在 2,000 公里左右。

在所有有爭議的地區中，達旺在中國的主權聲稱的清單上仍然名列前茅。

這是 1962 年一場短暫的戰爭期間佔領的地區之一，這場戰爭以印度的恥辱性失敗告終。 數千名解放軍士兵在撤兵前佔領了印度陣地。

在1990 年代中期作為軍事專家參加了印中邊界談判的 Zhou先生說: “達旺對中國來說不可或缺。西藏精神領袖第六世達賴喇嘛在 [17 世紀] 那裡出生”。

“你需要什麼更好的證據來證明它是中國領土？”

印度是根據 1914 年麥克馬洪線 (McMahon Line）提出邊界主張，麥克馬洪線以英國殖民地印度外交大臣的名字命名。

中國拒絕接受這條線 - 它從不丹東部穿過喜馬拉雅山，將整個 Arunachal Pradesh 邦置於印度一側。

（待續）

研究烏克蘭戰爭，中國軍事思維擔心美國導彈、星鏈 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Studying Ukraine war, China's military minds fret over US missiles, Starlink (2/2)

Tue, March 7, 2023 at 6:10 p.m. PST

By Eduardo Baptista and Greg Torode

(continue)

TAIWAN, AND BEYOND

Some of the Chinese articles stress Ukraine's relevance given the risk of a regional conflict pitting China against the United States and its allies, possibly over Taiwan. The U.S. has a policy of "strategic ambiguity" over whether it would intervene militarily to defend the island, but is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.

U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns has said that Xi has ordered his military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, while noting that the Chinese leader was probably unsettled by Russia's experience in Ukraine.

One article, published in October by two researchers at the PLA's National Defence University, analyzed the effect of U.S. deliveries of high-mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) to Ukraine, and whether China's military should be concerned.

"If HIMARS dares to intervene in Taiwan in the future, what was once known as an 'explosion-causing tool' will suffer another fate in front of different opponents," it concluded.

The article highlighted China's own advanced rocket system, supported by reconnaissance drones, and noted that Ukraine's success with HIMARS had relied on U.S. sharing of target information and intelligence via Starlink.

Four diplomats, including the two military attaches, said PLA analysts have long worried about superior U.S. military might, but Ukraine has sharpened their focus by providing a window on a large power's failure to overwhelm a smaller one backed by the West.

While that scenario has obvious Taiwan comparisons, there are differences, particularly given the island's vulnerability to a Chinese blockade that could force any intervening militaries into a confrontation.

Western countries, by contrast, are able to supply Ukraine by land via its European neighbors.

References to Taiwan are relatively few in the journals reviewed by Reuters, but diplomats and foreign scholars tracking the research say that Chinese defence analysts are tasked to provide separate internal reports for senior political and military leaders. Reuters was unable to access those internal reports.

Taiwanese Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said in February that China's military is learning from Russia's invasion of Ukraine that any attack on Taiwan would have to be swift to succeed. Taiwan is also studying the conflict to update its own battle strategies.

Several articles analyze the strengths of the Ukrainian resistance, including special forces' sabotage operations inside Russia, the use of the Telegram app to harness civilian intelligence, and the defense of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol.

Russian successes are also noted, such as tactical strikes using the Iskander ballistic missile.

The journal Tactical Missile Technology, published by state-owned weapons manufacturer China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation, produced a detailed analysis of the Iskander, but only released a truncated version to the public.

Many other articles focus on the mistakes of Russia's invading army, with one in the tank warfare journal identifying outdated tactics and a lack of unified command, while another in an electronic warfare journal said Russian communications interference was insufficient to counter NATO's provision of intelligence to the Ukrainians, leading to costly ambushes.

A piece published this year by researchers at the Engineering University of the People's Armed Police assessed the insights China could glean from the blowing-up of the Kerch Bridge in Russian-occupied Crimea. The full analysis has not been released publicly, however.

Beyond the battlefield, the work has covered the information war, which the researchers conclude was won by Ukraine and its allies.

One February article by researchers at the PLA Information Engineering University calls on China to preemptively prepare for a global public opinion backlash similar to that experienced by Russia.

China should "promote the construction of cognitive confrontation platforms" and tighten control of social media to prevent Western information campaigns from influencing its people during a conflict, it said.

Translation

(continue)

台灣及其他地區

一些中國文章強調了烏克蘭的相關性, 因為地區衝突, 可能在台灣問題上, 可使中國與美國及其盟友有發生衝突的風險。 美國在是否會進行軍事干預以保衛台灣島嶼方面恃 “戰略模糊”的政策，但受法律約束必須為台灣提供自衛手段。

美國中央情報局局長 William Burns表示，習近平已下令他的軍隊準備在 2027 年之前入侵台灣，同時指出中國領導人可能對俄羅斯在烏克蘭的經歷感到不安。

解放軍國防大學的兩名研究人員於 10 月發表了一篇文章，分析了美國向烏克蘭交付高機動火砲火箭系統 (HIMARS) 的影響，以及中國軍隊是否應該擔心。

它得出結論稱:“如果HIMARS未來敢插手台灣，這個曾經號稱‘引爆工具’的東西，將在不同的對手面前，再遭一次厄運。”

文章強調了中國在偵察無人機支持下的先進火箭系統，並指出烏克蘭在 HIMARS 方面的成功依賴於美國通過 Starlink 共享目標信息和情報。

包括兩名武官在內的四名外交官表示，解放軍分析人士長期以來一直擔心美國軍事力量的優勢，但烏克蘭提供了一個窗口，使他們更加關注到, 大國未能壓倒有西方支持的小國。

雖然這種情況與台灣有明顯的可比性，但也存在差異，特別是考慮到該島容易受到中國封鎖的影響，這可能迫使任何干預軍隊陷入對恃。

相比之下，西方國家能夠通過其歐洲鄰國通過陸路向烏克蘭供應物資。

路透社查閱的期刊中提及台灣的數量相對較少，但追踪該研究的外交官和外國學者表示，中國國防分析師的任務是為高級政治和軍事領導人提供個別的內部報告。 路透社無法接觸這些內部報告。

台灣國防部長Chiu Kuo-cheng 在二月份表示，中國軍方正在從俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的事件中吸取教訓，即任何對台灣的攻擊都必須迅速取得成功。 台灣也在研究這場衝突，以更新自己的作戰策略。

幾篇文章分析了烏克蘭抵抗力量的能力，包括特種部隊在俄羅斯境內的破壞行動、使用 Telegram 應用程序來活用民間情報，以及保衛馬里烏波爾的 Azovstal 鋼鐵廠。

分析還注意到俄羅斯的成功，例如使用Iskander彈道導彈的戰術攻擊。

國有武器製造商中國航天科工集團公司出版的《戰術導彈技術》雜誌對Iskander進行了詳細分析，但只向公眾發布了一個刪節版。

許多其他文章關注俄羅斯入侵軍隊的錯誤，其中一篇在坦克戰爭雜誌上指出戰術過時和缺乏統一指揮，而另一篇在電子戰雜誌上說俄羅斯的通信干擾不足以對抗北約向烏克蘭人提供情報，導致受代價高昂的伏擊。

人民武裝警察工程大學的研究人員今年發表的一篇文章, 評估了中國可以從俄羅斯佔領的克里米亞Kerch大橋爆炸事件中獲得的清晰及深刻理解。 然而，完整的分析尚未公開發布。

在戰場之外，分析工作還涵蓋了信息戰，研究人員得出結論認為烏克蘭及其盟國贏得了信息戰。

中國人民解放軍信息工程大學的研究人員在 2 月發表的一篇文章呼籲中國先發製人地準備應對與俄羅斯面對類似的全球輿論反彈。

它說，中國應該 “推進認知對抗平台的建設” ， 加強對社交媒體的控制，以防止西方的信息宣傳在衝突中影響中國民眾。

       So, China is making an effort to scrutinize the impact of U.S. weapons and technology that could be used against Chinese forces in a war over Taiwan. The study suggests that China needs the capability to shoot down low-earth-orbit Starlink satellites and defend tanks and helicopters against shoulder-fired Javelin missiles. Some article say that China should "promote the construction of cognitive confrontation platforms" and tighten control of social media to prevent Western information campaigns from influencing its people during a conflict. I am wondering whether TikTok could be a weapon for China to fight an information campaign.

研究烏克蘭戰爭，中國軍事思維擔心美國導彈、星鏈 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Studying Ukraine war, China's military minds fret over US missiles, Starlink (1/2)

Tue, March 7, 2023 at 6:10 p.m. PST

By Eduardo Baptista and Greg Torode

BEIJING/HONG KONG (Reuters) -China needs the capability to shoot down low-earth-orbit Starlink satellites and defend tanks and helicopters against shoulder-fired Javelin missiles, according to Chinese military researchers who are studying Russia's struggles in Ukraine in planning for possible conflict with U.S.-led forces in Asia.

A Reuters review of almost 100 articles in more than 20 defence journals reveals an effort across China's military-industrial complex to scrutinize the impact of U.S. weapons and technology that could be deployed against Chinese forces in a war over Taiwan.

The Chinese-language journals, which also examine Ukrainian sabotage operations, reflect the work of hundreds of researchers across a network of People's Liberation Army (PLA)-linked universities, state-owned weapons manufacturers and military intelligence think-tanks.

While Chinese officials have avoided any openly critical comments about Moscow's actions or battlefield performance as they call for peace and dialogue, the publicly available journal articles are more candid in their assessments of Russian shortcomings.

China's defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment about the researchers' findings. Reuters could not determine how closely the conclusions reflect the thinking among China's military leaders.

Two military attaches and another diplomat familiar with China's defence studies said the Communist Party's Central Military Commission, headed by President Xi Jinping, ultimately sets and directs research needs, and that it was clear from the volume of material that Ukraine was an opportunity the military leadership wanted to seize. The three people and other diplomats spoke to Reuters on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss their work publicly.

A U.S. defence official told Reuters that despite differences with the situation in Taiwan, the Ukraine war offered insights for China.

"A key lesson the world should take away from the rapid international response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine is that aggression will increasingly be met with unity of action," said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the topic's sensitivity, without addressing concerns raised in the Chinese research about specific U.S. capabilities.

STARLINK GAZING

Half a dozen papers by PLA researchers highlight Chinese concern at the role of Starlink, a satellite network developed by Elon Musk's U.S.-based space exploration company SpaceX, in securing the communications of Ukraine's military amid Russian missile attacks on the country's power grid.

"The excellent performance of 'Starlink' satellites in this Russian-Ukrainian conflict will certainly prompt the U.S. and Western countries to use 'Starlink' extensively" in possible hostilities in Asia, said a September article co-written by researchers at the Army Engineering University of the PLA.

The authors deemed it "urgent" for China - which aims to develop its own similar satellite network – to find ways to shoot down or disable Starlink. SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment.

The conflict has also forged an apparent consensus among Chinese researchers that drone warfare merits greater investment. China has been testing drones in the skies around Taiwan, a self-ruled democracy that Beijing has vowed to bring under its control.

"These unmanned aerial vehicles will serve as the 'door kicker' of future wars," noted one article in a tank warfare journal published by state-owned arms manufacturer NORINCO, a supplier to the PLA, that described drones' ability to neutralize enemy defences.

While some of the journals are operated by provincial research institutes, others are official publications for central government bodies such as the State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence, which oversees weapons production and military upgrades.

An article in the administration's official journal in October noted that China should improve its ability to defend military equipment in view of the "serious damage to Russian tanks, armored vehicles and warships" inflicted by Stinger and Javelin missiles operated by Ukrainian fighters.

Collin Koh, a security fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said the Ukrainian conflict had provided impetus to long-standing efforts by China's military scientists to develop cyber-warfare models and find ways of better protecting armor from modern Western weapons.

"Starlink is really something new for them to worry about; the military application of advanced civilian technology that they can't easily replicate," Koh said.

Beyond technology, Koh said he was not surprised that Ukrainian special forces operations inside Russia were being studied by China, which, like Russia, moves troops and weapons by rail, making them vulnerable to sabotage.

Despite its rapid modernization, the PLA lacks recent combat experience. China's invasion of Vietnam in 1979 was its last major battle – a conflict that rumbled on until the late 1980s.

Reuters' review of the Chinese journals comes amid Western concern that China may be planning to supply Russia with lethal aid for its assault on Ukraine, which Beijing denies.

(to be continued)

Translation

北京/香港（路透社）- 正在研究俄羅斯在烏克蘭的戰爭，以便規劃與美國領導的亞洲軍隊可能發生的衝突的中國軍事研究人員表示，中國需要具備擊落近地軌道星鏈衛星並保護坦克和直升機免受肩扛式標槍導彈攻擊的能力。

路透社對中國 20 多家國防期刊上的近 100 篇文章進行的審閱顯示，中國軍工聯合體正在努力細察可能在台灣戰爭中針對中國軍隊部署的美國武器和技術的影響。

這些中文期刊也研究了烏克蘭的破壞行動，反映了數百名研究人員在人民解放軍 (PLA) 相關大學、國有武器製造商和軍事情報智囊團網絡中的工作。

雖然中國官員呼籲和平與對話, 並避免公開對莫斯科的行動或戰場表現發表任何批評，但公開發表的期刊文章對俄羅斯缺點的評估比較坦率。

中國國防部沒有回應就研究人員的調查結果置評的請求。 路透社無法確定這些結論在多大程度上反映了中國軍方領導人的想法。

兩名武官和另一名熟悉中國國防研究的外交官表示，由以習近平主席為首的中共中央軍事委員會會作出最終研究要求及領導方向，從大量材料中可以清楚地看出，烏克蘭是一個機會軍方領導層想抓住的。 這三人和其他外交官在不願透露姓名的情況下與路透社交談，因為他們無權公開討論自身的工作。

一位美國國防官員告訴路透社，儘管與台灣的情況存在差異，但烏克蘭戰爭為中國提供了對複雜情況有更清晰和深刻的理解。

一位官員，由於話題的敏感性，不願透露姓名地說:“世界應該吸取的一個重要教訓是, 從國際社會對俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的快速反應看到，侵略將越來越多地被團結的行動應對”; 但他沒有觸及研究中提出對美國特定軍事能力的擔憂。

凝視星鏈

PLA 研究人員的六篇論文強調了中國對 Starlink 作用的擔憂，Starlink 是馬斯克的美國太空探索公司 SpaceX 開發的衛星網絡，在俄羅斯導彈襲擊該國電網的情況下,確保烏克蘭軍方的通信安全。

解放軍的陸軍工程大學研究人員在 9 月與人合著的一篇文章說, 在亞洲可能發生的敵對行動中:“‘星鏈’衛星在這次俄烏衝突中的出色表現肯,定會促使美國和西方國家廣泛使用‘星鏈’”。

作者認為，對於旨在發展自己的類似衛星網絡的中國來說，找到擊落或 癱瘓Starlink 的方法是“緊迫的”。 SpaceX 沒有回應置評請求。

這場衝突還在中國研究人員中形成了一個明顯的共識，即無人機戰爭值得更多投資。 中國一直在台灣周圍的天空測試無人機，台灣是一個自治民主體系，北京發誓要將其置於其控制之下。

解放軍的供應商國有武器製造商NORINCO在坦克戰雜誌上發表的一篇文章指出， “這些無人駕駛飛行器將成為未來戰爭的‘開門器’”;該文章描述了無人機摧毀敵人防禦的能力 .

雖然有些期刊由省級研究機構運營，但其他期刊是中央政府機構的官方出版物，例如負責監督武器生產和軍事升級的國家國防科技工業局。

政府官方雜誌 10 月發表的一篇文章指出，鑑於烏克蘭戦士使用的毒刺和標槍導彈對 “俄羅斯坦克、裝甲車和軍艦造成的嚴重破壞” ，中國應提高其防禦軍事裝備的能力。

新加坡 S. Rajaratnam 國際研究學院的安全研究員 Collin Koh 表示，烏克蘭衝突推動了中國軍事科學家長期努力開發網絡戰模型,並尋找更好地保護裝甲免受現代西方武器攻擊的方法。

Koh 說: “Starlink 確實是他們擔心的新事物；這是他們無法輕易複製的先進民用技術作軍事應用，”。

除了技術之外，Koh 表示，他對中國正在研究烏克蘭特種部隊在俄羅斯境內的行動並不感到驚訝，中國與俄羅斯一樣，通過鐵路運送軍隊和武器，這使得它們容易受到破壞。

儘管現代化迅速，但解放軍缺乏近期的戰鬥經驗。 中國在 1979 年入侵越南是最後一場重大戰役 - 這場衝突一直持續到 1980 年代後期。

路透社對中國期刊進行評論之際，西方擔心中國可能計劃向俄羅斯提供致命援助以應對其對烏克蘭的攻擊，北京對此予以否認。

（待續）

Nearly 200 countries reach historic agreement on draft treaty to protect marine life in high seas

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

公海での海洋生物保護、約２００カ国が条約案に歴史的合意

2023.03.06 Mon posted at 14:15 JST

 （ＣＮＮ） 公海の海洋生物を保護するための法的拘束力のある条約案について、国連の会合で約２００カ国が合意した。地球の表面の約半分を覆う公海は、これまで実質的に無法状態だった。

条約案は米ニューヨークの国連本部で２週間の協議を経て、４日夕に調印された。起草は２０年がかりの作業だった。

同条約により、生物多様性の保護を目的とした海洋保護区の設置や管理に向けた法的手段が確立される。また、深海採鉱のような商業活動の潜在的被害について事前に判断する環境影響評価や、海洋資源の共有に関する誓約も盛り込まれた。

公海は、真に手付かずの自然が残る世界で最後の場所とも呼ばれる。この広大な海域は、表面積で世界の海の６０％以上を占める。

公海は幅広い種が生息して独特の生態系を形成し、何十億もの人口が依存する世界の漁業を支え、気候危機に対する緩衝材として過去数十年で世界の余分な熱の９０％以上を吸収してきた。

同時に極めて脆弱（ぜいじゃく）な存在でもある。気候変動によって海洋温度は上昇し、海水の酸性化が進んで海洋生物を脅かしている。

漁業や海上輸送、深海鉱業、海洋植物や動物の「遺伝資源」を医薬品などの産業に利用しようとする競争など、人間の活動も海洋の負担となっている。

しかしこれまでのルールは断片的で執行力が弱く、公海上の活動は無規制で監視も不十分なまま搾取されやすい状態にあった。

新しい海洋条約は、公海上に海洋保護区を設定して管理するための法的力を与えることで、そうした溝を埋めることを目指す。２０２２年１２月にカナダのモントリオールで開かれた生物多様性条約第１５回締約国会議（ＣＯＰ１５）で採択された世界の多様性の目標を達成するために、これは不可欠だと専門家は指摘している。

Translation

(CNN) Nearly 200 countries had agreed at a United Nations meeting on a draft legally-binding treaty to protect marine life in the high seas. The high seas, which covered about half of the Earth's surface, had been virtually lawless until now.

The draft treaty was signed on the evening of the 4th after two weeks of consultations at the United Nations Headquarters in New York. The drafting was a process that took 20-year to finish.

The convention established legal instruments to establish and manage marine protected areas in order to protect biodiversity. It also included environmental impact assessments that made judgement in advance on the potential harm of commercial activities such as deep-sea mining, and also included a pledge to share marine resources.

The high seas had been called the last truly pristine natural place in the world. This vast area covered more than 60% of the world's oceans by surface area.

The high seas were home to a wide range of species, forming unique ecosystems, supporting the world's fisheries on which billions of people depended on, and acting as a buffer against the climate crisis by absorbing more than 90% of the world's excess heat over the last few decades.

At the same time, the high seas were extremely vulnerable. Climate change was causing ocean temperatures to rise, increasing ocean acidification, and threatening marine life.

Human activities, such as fishing, maritime transport, deep-sea mining, and competition to harness the ‘inheritance resources' of marine plants and animals for use in industries such as medicine had also put a strain on the oceans.

But up to now, rules had been fragmented and weakly enforced, leaving high seas activity unregulated and poorly monitored, and vulnerable to exploitation.

This new maritime treaty aimed at filling that gap by giving legal power to establish and manage marine protected areas on the high seas. Experts said this would be essential to achieve global diversity goals adopted at the 15th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP15) held in Montreal, Canada in December 2022.

              So, nearly 200 countries have agreed at a United Nations meeting on a draft legally-binding treaty to protect marine life in the high seas. Hopefully, the damages done to the high seas can be reversed with this new convention.

Note:

The Convention on Biological Diversity, known informally as the Biodiversity Convention, is a multilateral treaty. The Convention has three main goals: the conservation of biological diversity; the sustainable use of its components; and the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from genetic resources. (Wikipedia)

China's defense budget exceeds 30 trillion yen, showing a 7.2% increase from last year

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

中国 国防費 30兆円余 去年より7.2％増加で軍備増強姿勢示す

2023年3月5日 19時21分

中国政府は、ことしの予算案で、国防費について、去年と比べて7.2％多い、1兆5537億人民元、日本円で30兆円余りになることを明らかにし、軍備の増強を続ける姿勢を改めて示しました。

中国政府は、5日から始まった全人代＝全国人民代表大会で、ことしの予算案を明らかにしました。

このうち、国防費は去年と比べて7.2％多い、およそ1兆5537億人民元、日本円で30兆5400億円余りとなり、予算の伸び率は、去年の7.1％より増加しました。

中国の国防費をめぐっては、詳しい内訳が公表されていないうえ、海外から調達する兵器の費用や研究開発費が含まれず、透明性が欠けているとして各国の専門家などから根強い批判の声があります。

中国は「今世紀半ばまでに世界一流の軍隊を作る」という目標を掲げながら、軍備の増強を進めています。

こうした中、去年には艦載機を加速して発進させることができる電磁式の「カタパルト」を採用したとする3隻目の空母「福建」を進水させるなどしていて、最新兵器の開発に力を入れています。

背景には、台湾への関与を続けるアメリカやアメリカとの関係を深める台湾をけん制するねらいもあるとみられ、今回の予算案でも、改めて軍備増強を続ける姿勢を鮮明にした形です。

李克強首相「国防発展の重大なプロジェクト 実施を加速させる」

李克強首相は、ことしの政府活動報告で、これまでの国防政策について「軍に対する党の絶対的な指導を堅持し、国防と軍隊の建設において新たに重大な成果を収め、近代化の水準と実戦能力を顕著に向上させた」と強調しました。

そのうえで、ことしの国防政策について「『習近平強軍思想』を貫徹し、軍創設100年の奮闘目標の実現に向けて、訓練と戦闘準備を全面的に強化するとともに、国防発展の重大なプロジェクトの実施を加速させる」と強調し、軍備の増強を一層、進める姿勢を示しました。

中国の国防費の推移

中国の国防費は、1989年以降、ほぼ毎年、前の年を10％以上上回るペースで増え続け、2017年に1兆人民元の大台を突破しました。

2016年以降の伸び率は1桁となっていますが、ことしの国防費は予算案でおよそ1兆5537億人民元、日本円で30兆5400億円余りとなり、日本の新年度予算案の防衛費と比べると4.5倍ほどになっています。

一方、アメリカの国防費は2023年度の予算で8580億ドル、日本円で116兆円余りとなっていて、中国はアメリカに次いで世界第2位の軍事大国となっています。

Translation

In this year's budget proposal, the Chinese government announced that the defense budget would be 1.5537 trillion yuan, which was 7.2% higher than last year, or more than 30 trillion Japanese yen, showing that it again would continue to strengthen its armaments.

The Chinese government announced the budget proposal for this year at the National People's Congress which started on the 5th.

Of this, the defense budget increased by 7.2% from last year to approximately 1.5537 trillion yuan, or more than 30.54 trillion Japanese yen, and the budget growth rate was a 7.1%. increase from last year's amount.

China's defense spending details had not been disclosed, and it hds been strongly criticized by experts in various countries for its lack of transparency, as it did not include the costs of weapons procured from overseas and expenses on research and development.

China had set a goal of building a world-class military by the middle of this century, and was continuing to build up its armaments.

Under such circumstances, last year it launched the third aircraft carrier "Fujian", which was said to have adopted an electromagnetic "catapult" that could increase the launching speed of carrier-based aircraft,  putting in effort to develop the latest weapons.

In the background, it was also believed that the aim was to restrain the United States which continued to engage in Taiwan, and Taiwan which was deepening its relationship with the United States. This budget proposal also made clear once again the stance of continuing to build up its military.

Premier Li Keqiang - ``Accelerating the Implementation of Major Projects for National Defense Development''

Premier Li Keqiang said in this year's government work report that, regarding the defense policy so far, “We will adhere to the party's absolute leadership over the military, make new significant achievements in the construction of national defense and the military”, and we have significantly improved the level of modernization and combat capabilities.”

On top of that, regarding this year's national defense policy, he stressed that ``We will implement the 'Xi Jinping Strong Military Thought' and comprehensively strengthen training and combat preparations to achieve the goal of the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the military. We will accelerate the implementation of the major projects”, showing a willingness to further strengthen the armaments.

Changes in China's defense spending

Since 1989, China's defense budget had continued to grow at a rate of more than 10% higher than the previous year almost every year, surpassing the RMB 1 trillion mark in 2017.

The growth rate since 2016 had been in the single digits, but this year's national defense budget was about 1.5537 trillion yuan, and would be more than 30.54 trillion Japanese yen. It was about 4.5 times the defense budget of Japan's new budget proposal.

On the other hand, the US defense budget for fiscal 2023 was $858 billion, or more than 116 trillion in Japanese yen, making China the second largest military power in the world after the US.

So, China’s defense budget will be 1.5537 trillion yuan, which is 7.2% higher than last year, showing that it will continue to strengthen its armaments.  Even this figure is doubtful. China has been strongly criticized by experts in various countries for its lack of transparency in defense budget as it does not include the costs of weapons procured from overseas and expenses on research and development.

ESG investment survives last year's market turmoil; new funds flow in

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

ＥＳＧ投資、昨年の混乱の市場乗り切る　新たな資金も流入

2023.03.01 Wed posted at 16:20 JST

ニューヨーク（ＣＮＮ） 企業評価に当たって環境、社会、ガバナンスの要因を重視する「ＥＳＧ投資」を行うファンドは変動の激しかった２０２２年を乗り切った。市場全体と同様のパフォーマンスを見せたほか、新たな資金も呼び込み、責任ある投資の明るい将来の兆しを示した。

投資家はロシアによるウクライナ侵攻を受け、一部のエネルギーや武器関連株への投資の再考を迫られる状況にあった。そうした中でＥＳＧ投資を巡る政治的な違いが表面化し、批判の声が上がる場面もみられた。

ＥＳＧファンドは経済の厳しい逆風にも直面した。こうしたファンドはＩＴ企業への投資規模が大きい一方、エネルギー株への投資は少ない状況で、全体として昨年は損失が目立った。昨年最も高いパフォーマンスを示したのがエネルギー株で、ＩＴ株は不調だった。

それでもＥＳＧ投資はマーケット全体と同様のリターンを確保した。モーニングスター・ＵＳ・サステナビリティー・インデックスは昨年１８．９％下落したが、Ｓ＆Ｐ５００も１９．４％下落した。

世界に目を移せば、ファンド全体から資金が引き上げられる中、ＥＳＧファンドは新たな投資を呼び込んだ。ＣＮＮに提供されたリフィニティブ・リッパーのデータからはそうした姿が明らかになっている。

ヘッジファンドや他の機関投資家は株式を売って、現金を保有する動きを見せた。米金融大手ゴールドマン・サックスは昨年秋、現金の比率をポートフォリオ全体の約２．５％にまで引き上げた。

それでもＥＳＧへの資金流入は強く、特に米国以外でその動きが際立った。モーニングスターのデータによれば、欧州ＥＴＦ（上場投資信託）への資金流入のうち６５％はＥＳＧ投資関連だった。

リッパーのグローバル・リサーチ部門トップは「２２年の全体的なポイントは、ＥＳＧ商品がより一貫した流入を引きつけ、流入がある状況で年を終えたことだ。より広いファンドのマーケットでは、２２年は全体的に資金が流出する状況だった。ＥＳＧを巡る疑問や議論がいくつか出たものの、世代で最も厳しい投資市場の一つと言える状況の中、その基調は無傷だったことは良い兆候だ」と指摘した。

Translation

New York (CNN) - ESG investing funds, which focus on environmental, social and governance factors in enterprises had weathered a volatile 2022. In addition to performing in line with the overall market, it also attracted new capital, signaling a bright future for responsible investment.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine had forced investors to rethink their investments in some energy and arms stocks. Under such circumstances, political differences surrounding ESG investment surfaced, and there were scenes where voices of criticism were raised.

ESG funds also faced severe economic headwinds. These funds had invested heavily in tech companies and less in energy stocks, and as a whole, they lost a lot of money last year. Energy stocks had the best performers last year, while tech stocks were in poor shape.

Still, ESG investment secured returns similar to the overall market. The Morningstar US Sustainability Index was down 18.9% last year, while the S&P 500 was down 19.4%.

Looking around the world, while all funds were seeing withdrawn, ESG funds attracted new investment. Refinitiv Ripper data provided to CNN made that clear.

Hedge funds and other institutional investors sold stocks and moved to hold cash. Goldman Sachs Inc. increased cash to about 2.5% of its portfolio last fall.

Still, ESG inflows were strong, such movement was especially outside the United States. According to Morningstar data, sixty-five percent of inflows into European exchange-traded funds were related to ESG investments.

Head of Global Research at Lipper pointed out that "The overall takeaway for 2022 is that ESG products have drawn more consistent inflows and ended the year with inflows. Although there were some questions and discussions regarding ESG, in what could be one of the toughest investment markets in a generation, that underlying tone remained intact is a good sign."

              So, ESG investing funds, which focus on environmental, social and governance factors in enterprises have weathered a volatile 2022, yet they continue to attract new capital in 2023, signaling the fact that investors care about which companies will improve the environment and society etc. when doing investments.

Note:

The Morningstar Sustainability Rating is thought to be a reliable and objective way for investors to see how approximately 20,000 mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are meeting environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) challenges. (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/morningstar-sustainability-rating.asp#:~:text)

澳洲取消與中國相關的稀土投資

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Australia Knocks Back China-Linked Investment in Rare Earths

Ben Westcott

Wed, March 1, 2023 at 12:28 a.m. PST

(Bloomberg) -- Australia has quietly blocked a bid by a Chinese-linked company to increase its ownership in rare earths supplier Northern Minerals Ltd., one of the first tests of warmer diplomatic ties between Canberra and Beijing.

The Singapore-based Yuxiao Fund applied in August 2022 to increase its ownership of Northern Minerals to 19.9%, almost doubling its stake. Northern Minerals executive chairman Nick Curtis told Bloomberg the fund was owned by Wu Yuxiao, a Chinese national who invests in commodities internationally.

But an order prohibiting the move was officially issued by Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Feb. 15, based on advice from the Foreign Review Investment Board. The move was “consistent with other decisions taken by other governments in the past,” Chalmers said in Canberra on Wednesday, without giving further details.

The bid rejection was first reported by Reuters. Bloomberg was unable to find a phone number or email to contact Yuxiao Fund.

Relations between China and Australia have improved following the election of the center-left Labor government in May 2022. Ministerial meetings between the two countries have resumed and some Chinese trade sanctions against Australian exports have been removed.

Meanwhile, Western nations including Australia are pushing to reduce China’s role in supply chains for rare earths and other so-called critical minerals. In November, Chalmers announced a Treasury review of foreign investment in the sector.

“We’ll need to be more assertive about encouraging investment that clearly aligns with our national interest in the longer term,” Chalmers said at the time.

Beijing has made it clear they would like to see further relaxation of foreign investment restrictions in Australia. In early January, China’s Tianqi Lithium Corp. agreed to purchase an Australian lithium explorer, a deal which will also need government approval to go ahead.

Later in January, Chinese Ambassador Xiao Qian specifically mentioned the battery material lithium as one possible area of investment during a press conference in Canberra.

Translation

（彭博社）- 澳洲悄悄阻止了一家與中國有關聯的公司增加其在稀土供應商 Northern Minerals Ltd. 的股權的投標，這是對堪培拉和北京之間外交關係回暖後的首個考驗之一。

總部位於新加坡的Yuxiao基金於 2022 年 8 月申請將其在Northern Minerals Ltd. 的持股比例提高至 19.9%，幾乎翻了一番。 Northern Minerals 執行主席 Nick Curtis 告訴彭博社，該基金由中國公民Wu Yuxiao所有，他在國際上投資大宗商品。

但根據外國審查投資委員會的建議，澳洲財政部長Jim Chalmers 於 2 月 15 日正式發布了禁止此舉的命令。 Chalmers週三在堪培拉表示，此舉 “與其他政府過去做出的其他決定一致”，但未提供更多細節。

路透社最先報導了投標被拒絕的消息。 彭博社無法找到聯繫Yuxiao基金的電話號碼或電子郵件地址。

在2022 年 5 月澳洲左翼工黨當選後，中澳關係有所改善。兩國部長級會議已恢復，中國對澳大利亞出口的部分貿易制裁已被取消。

與此同時，包括澳洲在內的西方國家正在努力減少中國在稀土和其他所謂關鍵礦物供應鏈中的作用。 11 月，Chalmers 宣布財政部對該行業的外國投資進行審查。

Chalmers當時表示 :“我們需要更加自信地鼓勵明顯符合我們國家長期利益的投資”。

北京已明確表示，他們希望看到澳洲進一步放寬外國投資限制。 1 月初，中國Tianqi鋰業同意收購一家澳洲鋰勘探公司，該交易也需要獲得政府批准才能進行。

1 月下旬，中國大使Xiao Qian在堪培拉的新聞發布會上特別提到電池材料鋰是一個可能的投資領域。

So, Australia has quietly blocked a bid by a Chinese-linked company to increase its ownership in rare earths supplier Northern Minerals Ltd., one of the first tests of warmer diplomatic ties between Canberra and Beijing. I am interested in knowing how China will react to this.

Zero-calorie sweeteners linked to increased heart attack and stroke risk - US study

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

カロリーゼロの甘味料、心臓発作や脳卒中リスク増大と関係　米研究

2023.02.28 Tue posted at 14:43 JST

（ＣＮＮ） 砂糖の代替としてステビアなどの甘味料に使われている「エリスリトール」について、血栓や脳卒中、心臓発作や死亡リスク増大との関係を指摘する論文が、２７日の科学誌ネイチャー・メディシンに発表された。

論文は米クリーブランドクリニック・ラーナー調査研究所のスタンリー・ヘイゼン氏らのチームが発表。研究の結果、糖尿病など心疾患の危険を伴う基礎疾患がある人は、血中のエリスリトール濃度が高い場合、心臓発作や脳卒中のリスクが２倍になることが分かった。

「エリスリトールの血中濃度の値が上位２５％に入る人は、下位２５％の人に比べ、心臓発作や脳卒中のリスクが約２倍に増大する」とヘイゼン氏は解説する。

研究室や動物で行った研究では、エリスリトールに血小板の凝固を促進させる作用があるらしいことが分かった。血栓が飛び散って心臓に達すれば心臓発作を引き起こし、脳に達すれば脳卒中を引き起こす。

この研究にかかわっていない専門家のアンドルー・フリーマン氏は、「エリスリトールの使用に起因する血栓のリスクがあるようだ」と述べ、「さらなる研究の必要はあるが、念のために当面は食事の中でエリスリトールを制限した方がいいかもしれない」と指摘した。

一方、業界団体のカロリー・コントロール・カウンシルはこの研究について、「エリスリトールのような低カロリー甘味料の安全性を示す長年の科学的研究に反している。安全性は、食品や飲料への使用を認めた世界中の規制によって裏付けられている」と反論している。

エリスリトールは、ソルビトールやキシリトールと同じような炭水化物の糖アルコールで、多くの果物や野菜に含まれる。専門家によると、甘さは砂糖の７０％程度で、ゼロカロリーと考えられている。

人工的に大量生産されたエリスリトールは、他の糖アルコールに比べて後味が残らず、血糖値の上昇を引き起こさず、緩下剤効果は低い。

ヘイゼン氏によると、そうした特徴のためにエリスリトールは食品業界が好んで使うようになり、低炭水化物製品や糖尿病患者向け食品の添加物として重宝されるようになった。「我々が調査した糖尿病患者向け食品の中には、どの商品よりもエリスリトールの含有量が多いものもあった」と同氏は話す。

「天然」ステビアやモンクフルーツ（ラカンカ）などの製品でも、成分に占める含有量はエリスリトールが最も多いという。ステビアやモンクフルーツは砂糖のおよそ２００～４００倍の甘さがあることから、どんな商品でもほんの少量しか必要とされない。そうした商品の大部分を占めるエリスリトールは、消費者が期待する砂糖のような外観や食感を加えられる。

もともとヘイゼン氏の研究の目標は、血中に含まれる未知の化学物質や成分を発見して、心疾患や脳卒中、あるいは３年以内の死亡リスク予測に役立てることにあった。その目的で同氏のチームは、２００４年～１１年の間に採取された心臓病のリスクをもつ人１１５７人の血液サンプルを調べた。

「我々は大きく関与しているらしい物質を発見した。だがそれが何なのかは分からなかった」とヘイゼン氏は言う。「やがて、それが甘味料のエリスリトールだったことが分かった」

エリスリトールは人体でも生成されるが、極めて少量にとどまる。研究チームが測定した量は、その水準ではなかった。

調査結果を裏付けるため、研究チームはさらに米国の２１００人あまりの血液サンプルと、欧州で採取された８３３人のサンプルを調査した。調査対象者は３グループとも、約４分の３に冠動脈疾患や高血圧の症状があり、約５分の１は糖尿病だった。半分以上は男性で、年齢は６０代から７０代だった。

調査の結果、３グループ全てで、エリスリトール濃度の高さと、心臓発作や脳卒中、３年以内の死亡リスクとの関係が判明した。

その理由を調べるため、研究チームは動物実験や研究室での実験を行い、エリスリトールに血液の凝固を誘発させる作用があることを発見した。

人体は傷口からの出血を止めるために、血液凝固を必要とする。ただ、血小板によって作られる血栓の大きさは、細胞を刺激するトリガーの大きさによって決まる。例えばトリガーが１０％であれば、血栓も１０％にとどまる。

「しかしエリスリトールがあると、血小板がスーパー反応を引き起こす現象がみられた。たった１０％の刺激で９０％～１００％の血栓ができる」（ヘイゼン氏）

「血栓や心疾患、脳卒中のリスクを持つ人は、心疾患や糖尿病の基礎疾患がある人と同様に、さらなる研究が行われるまで、エリスリトールを控えた方がいいことを裏付けるに足るデータが得られたと思う」とヘイゼン氏は話している。

Translation

(CNN) A paper published in the journal Nature Medicine on the 27th announced that Erythritol, a sugar substitute used in sweeteners such as stevia, could be associated with an increased risk of blood clots, stroke, heart attack and death,

The paper was published by a team led by Stanley Hazen of the Cleveland Clinic Lerner Research Institute. The study found that people with underlying health conditions that put them at risk for heart disease, such as diabetes, were twice as likely to have a heart attack or stroke if their blood levels of erythritol were high.

Hazen explained that "People with blood levels in the top quartile of erythritol have about twice the risk of heart attack and stroke as those with the bottom quartile."

Laboratory and animal studies had shown that erythritol appeared to promote platelet clotting. If a blood clot scattered and reached the heart, it would cause a heart attack; if it reached the brain, it would cause a stroke.

Andrew Freeman, an expert not involved in the study, said that "there appears to be a risk of blood clots from erythritol use," noting that "further research is needed, but it may be better to limit erythritol in the diet for the time being, just in case."

Meanwhile, the Calorie Control Council, an industry group, countered the study in saying that "it runs counter to years of scientific research demonstrating the safety of low-calorie sweeteners like erythritol, Safety is backed by regulations around the world in authorizing its use in food and beverages."

Erythritol was a carbohydrate sugar alcohol, like sorbitol and xylitol, found in many fruits and vegetables. Experts said it was about 70% as sweet as sugar and was considered to have zero calorie.

Erythritol, which was mass-produced artificially, compared to other sugar alcohols did not leave an aftertaste, did not cause a rise in blood sugar levels, and had a lower laxative effect than other sugar alcohols. 

Hazen said that these properties had made erythritol a favorite in the food industry, making it a valuable addition to low-carb products and food for diabetics. He said "Among the diabetic foods we investigated, some of the diabetic foods had more erythritol than another."

Erythritol was the most abundant ingredient in products such as 'natural' stevia and monk fruit. Stevia and monk fruit were roughly 200 to 400 times sweeter than sugar, so only a small amount of any product would be needed. Erythritol, which made up most of such products, had been added a sugar-like look and texture that consumers expected.

The original goal of Hazen's research was to discover unknown chemicals and constituents in the blood, and to use that to predict the risk of heart disease, stroke, or death within three years. To that end, between 2004 and 2011, his team looked at blood samples taken from 1,157 people who were at risk of heart disease.

Hazen said, "We found a substance that seemed to play a big role, but we didn't know what it was” ;"Eventually we found that it was the sweetener erythritol."

Erythritol was also produced by the human body, but in a very small amount. The amount the research team detected was not at that level.

To corroborate their findings, the researchers also examined more than 2,100 blood samples from the United States and 833 samples from Europe. About three-quarters of all three groups had symptoms of coronary artery disease or high blood pressure, and about one-fifth had diabetes. More than half were men, aged between 60 and 70.

The study found that high erythritol levels were associated with increased risk of heart attack, stroke, and death within three years in all three groups.

To find out why, the researchers conducted animal tests and laboratory experiments and discovered that erythritol has the ability to induce blood clotting.

The human body needed blood clotting to stop bleeding from wounds. However, the size of the clot formed by platelets would be determined by the size of the trigger that stimulated the cells. For example, if the trigger was 10%, the blood clot remains at 10%.

"However, when erythritol was present, a phenomenon was observed in which platelets elicited a super-reaction. A mere 10% stimulation can result in 90% to 100% blood clot." (Hazen)

Hazen said, "I think there are enough data to support the suggestion that people at risk for blood clots, heart disease and stroke, as well as those with underlying heart disease and diabetes should avoid erythritol until further research is done".

              So, a research paper announces that Erythritol, a sugar substitute used in sweeteners such as stevia, is associated with an increased risk of blood clots, stroke, heart attack and death, and people at risk of these health hazards should avoid erythritol until further research is done. This is a shocking discovery and I think further research should be done urgently.

Note:

1.  Monk fruit is a small, green gourd that resembles a melon. It is grown in Southeast Asia. The fruit was first used by Buddhist monks in the 13th century, hence the fruit’s unusual name. Monk fruit sweeteners are made from the fruit’s extract. They may be blended with dextrose or other ingredients to balance sweetness. Monk fruit extract is 150 to 200 times sweeter than sugar. The extract contains zero calories, zero carbohydrates, zero sodium, and zero fat. This makes it a popular sweetener alternative for manufacturers who make low-calorie products. (https://www.healthline.com/health/food-nutrition/monk-fruit-vs-stevia)

2. Stevia is 200 to 300 times sweeter than sugar. Commercial stevia sweeteners are made from a compound of the stevia plant, which is an herb from the Asteraceae family. The use of stevia in foods is a bit confusing. Despite being used for centuries as a natural sweetener, the FDA considers them unsafe. They claim literature indicates stevia in its most natural form may affect blood sugar. It may also affect reproductive, renal, and cardiovascular systems. (https://www.healthline.com/health/food-nutrition/monk-fruit-vs-stevia#stevia)

3. Luo Han Guo (ラカンカ, 羅漢果, Siraitia grosvenorii) also known as monk fruit is native to southern China. The plant is cultivated for its fruit extract, called mogrosides, which creates a sweetness sensation 250 times stronger than sucrose. Mogroside extract has been used as a low-calorie sweetener for drinks and in traditional Chinese medicine. (Wikipedia)