中國去美元化的雄心又向前邁進了一步

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China’s Ambitions for De-dollarization Take Another Step Forward

George Lei, Ye Xie and Sydney Maki

Thu, January 5, 2023 at 11:45 a.m. GMT+8

(Bloomberg) -- China’s latest efforts to broaden interest in its onshore currency market show a firm commitment to bolstering the yuan’s global appeal as Beijing works on its approach to chip away at the US dollar’s hegemony.

Officials this week extended trading hours for the onshore yuan as part of its attempt to increase international use of the currency. Admittedly, it’s a small step, but it follows a push to boost its use in transactions with major energy and commodity exporters and data showing rapid growth in yuan trading activity.

The sheer strength of the dollar in the first half of last year and its weaponization to enforce sanctions on Russia has given fresh impetus to some of the world’s biggest economies to explore ways to circumvent the US currency. While no one is saying the greenback will be dethroned anytime soon from its reign as the principal medium of exchange, experimenting with de-dollarization has increased.

An opening up of markets has long been on the agenda for China’s government. But increased tensions over issues ranging from Taiwan and Russia to semi-conductor technology and trade potentially give an added sense of urgency for leaders in Beijing.

“Beijing is trying hard to keep the yuan relevant as an international currency to counter recent geopolitical tensions and hostile sentiments, especially in the US,” said Stephen Jen, chief executive officer of London-based hedge fund Eurizon SLJ Capital.

The reaffirmation of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s leadership at last year’s five-yearly Communist Party Congress also provides a firmer platform for pursuing progress in market policies, although concerns around the country’s opening up from Covid-mitigation measures could add to challenges.

China this week extended trading hours for the onshore yuan as part of its attempt to increase international use of the currency, meaning that foreign-exchange transactions are now possible until 3 a.m. Beijing time instead of the 11:30 p.m. cutoff that was previously in place. That takes trading into the European evening and much deeper into the US day.

With only a few local banks equipped to take advantage of the new times — which were only announced a few days before — the move was met with a tepid response. On Tuesday — the first day of the extension — only $128 million changed hands during the extra 3.5 hours, around 0.4% of the full day’s volume, according to China Foreign Exchange Trade System. CFETS said 16 banks participated in the extended hours, including spot and derivative markets.

But the shift could, along with other initiatives like encouraging the yuan’s use in commodity transactions, help pave the way for greater use of the currency, which remains more tightly managed than most major peers.

The longer trading hours make it “easier for foreigners” to do business with the country, according to Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.’s New York-based global head of currency strategy Win Thin, who also drew attention to the fact that investments had been flowing out of China.

Data show, for example, that global funds offloaded yuan-denominated government bonds for 10 straight months in 2022 and that the country was on track for its first net outflow since such records began in 2013.

The Chinese yuan trades in distinctly separated offshore and onshore markets — referred to respectively as CNH and CNY. For most international traders, the offshore market is the more critical one, and it has seen major growth in recent years. It trades around the clock and is not subject to the same kind of controls that exist within China itself. This latest move, meanwhile, is focused on the onshore market.

The Bank for International Settlements’ most recent triennial survey of FX trading showed that the yuan as a whole had the fastest growth among 39 currencies it covered. Average daily use jumped to around $526 billion per day, an increase of more than 70% once exchange-rate movements are factored in. That turnover increase was largely driven by trading between counterparties outside mainland China, which doubled between 2019 and 2022 to account for about 80% of all the trades in the currency.

Yuan trading volumes, however, remained low relative to the size of China’s economy - at around 3% of annual gross domestic product - compared with 30% of GDP for the US dollar and 6% for the median emerging-market currency. A separate survey by the BIS last year shows the yuan was involved in 7% of all trades in 2022 compared with the dollar’s 88% as the fifth most traded currency globally.

It also coincides with a push to boost the use of the yuan in transactions with major energy and commodity exporters. Russia, which has tilted more energy sales toward China after the fallout from the war in Ukraine saw it cut off from many of its other customers, has doubled, to 60%, the proportion of its $186.5 billion National Wellbeing Fund that can be held in yuan. And with Saudi Arabia, China last month signed some $50 billion of investment agreements as Xi reinforced ties between the two countries by making a visit to Riyadh.

Having extended yuan trading hours would be supportive of efforts to boost these kinds of transactions with Russia and Saudi Arabia, according to Victor Xing, principal at Kekselias Inc., a portfolio manager and research provider in Pasadena, California.

The yuan rallied to the strongest level in four months after China announced the trading hour extension. The currency has advanced since November as global investors bet on China’s economic recovery following the nation’s Covid policy shift.

“It’s a positive signal for China reopening to the rest of the world,” said Brendan McKenna, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York. The move is “a signal that China wants more integration into global financial markets than anything else.”

Translation

（彭博社）- 隨著北京方面努力削弱美元霸權，中國為擴大對在岸貨幣市場的利益而做出的最新努力, 表明了它增強人民幣全球吸引力的堅定承諾。

官員們本周延長了在岸人民幣的交易時間，作為其試圖增加該貨幣國際使用的一部分。 誠然，這是一小步，但這是在推動人民幣在與主要能源和大宗商品出口國交易中的使用, 以及在數據顯示人民幣交易活動快速增長之後發生的。

去年上半年美元的絕對強勢及其對俄羅斯實施制裁的武器化，為世界上一些最大的經濟體探索規避美元的方法提供了新的動力。 雖然沒有人說美元作為主要交易媒介的地位會很快被廢除，但去美元化的試驗已經增加。

長期以來，開放市場一直是中國政府的議程。 但從台灣和俄羅斯到半導體技術和貿易等問題的緊張局勢加劇，可能會給北京的領導人帶來更多的迫切感。

總部位於倫敦的對沖基金 Eurizon SLJ Capital 的首席執行官 Stephen Jen 表示： “北京正在努力保持人民幣作為有國際地位的貨幣，以應對近期的地緣政治緊張局勢和敵對情緒，尤其是在美國。”

中國國家主席習近平在去年的五年一度的共產黨代表大會上重申了其領導地位，這也為推動市場政策取得進展提供了更穩固的平台，儘管圍繞中國因新冠疫情緩解措施而開放的擔憂, 可能會增加挑戰。

中國本周延長了在岸人民幣的交易時間，作為其增加人民幣在國際被使用的嘗試的一部分，這意味著現在可以在北京時間凌晨 3 點之前進行外匯交易，而不是晚上 11:30, 即以前設置的截止時間。 這帶領交易進入歐洲之晚，並更深進入美國的交易日。

由於只有少數地方銀行準備好利用幾天前才宣布的新時代，此舉得到了不太熱烈的回應。 根據中國外匯交易中心的數據，週二（延期的第一天）在額外的 3.5 小時內僅易手 1.28 億美元，約佔全天交易量的 0.4%。 中國外匯交易中心表示，16 家銀行參與了延長交易時間，包括現貨和衍生品市場。

但這種轉變，連同其他舉措鼓勵人民幣在商品交易中使用等，可能有助於為更多使用人民幣鋪平道路，與大多數主要貨幣相比，人民幣的管理仍然更加嚴格。

Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. 駐紐約的全球貨幣策略主管 Win Thin 表示，更長的交易時間讓 “外國人更容易” 與該國做生意，他還提出要注意投資已經一直流出中國。

例如，數據顯示，全球基金在 2022 年連續 10 個月拋售以人民幣計價的政府債券，中國有機會出現自 2013 年開始有此類記錄以來的首次淨流出。

人民幣有明顯不同的離岸和在岸市場交易 - 分別稱為 CNH 和 CNY。 對於大多數國際貿易商而言，離岸市場更為關鍵，近年來增長迅速。 它全天候交易，不受中國境內存在的同樣控制。 與此同時，這一最新舉措側重於在岸市場。

國際清算銀行最近期的三年一度的外匯交易調查顯示，在其涵蓋的 39 種貨幣中人民幣整體增長最快。 平均每日使用量躍升至每天 5,260 億美元左右，如果將匯率變動考慮在內，增幅超過 70%。營業額的增長主要是由與中國大陸以外的交易對手之間的交易所推動，該交易額在 2019 年至 2022 年期間翻了一番，佔貨幣交易額的大約 80%。

然而，相對於中國貿易規模，人民幣交易量仍然較低, 約為年度國內生產總值的 3% - 相比之下，美元佔中國生產總值的 30%，人民幣佔新興市場貨幣的中值 6%。 國際清算銀行去年的另一項調查顯示，2022 年人民幣佔全球所有交易的 7%，而美元佔88%, 人民幣交易量為第五大貨幣。

這也恰逢推動人民幣在與主要能源和大宗商品出口國的交易中的使用。 在烏克蘭戰爭的後果導致俄羅斯與許多其他客戶斷絕關係後，俄羅斯將更多的能源銷售轉向中國，俄羅斯在其 1,865 億美元的國家福利基金中可以持有人民幣的比例翻了一番，達到 60%。 隨著習近平訪問利雅得加强两國關係，中國上個月與沙特阿拉伯簽署了約 500 億美元的投資協議。

加利福尼亞州 Pasadena 的投資組合經理和研究提供商 Kekselias Inc. 的負責人 Victor Xing 表示，延長人民幣交易時間將有助於促進與俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯的此類交易。

在中國宣布延長交易時間後，人民幣升至四個月以來的最高水平。 自 11 月以來，隨著全球投資者押注中國的新冠疫情政策轉變後經濟復甦，人民幣上漲。

紐約Wells Fargo & Co.的貨幣策略師 Brendan McKenna說: “這是中國向世界其他地區重新開放的積極信號” 。 此舉是 “一個信號，表明中國最希望融入全球金融市場。”

              So, China has extended the trading hours for the onshore yuan as part of its attempt to increase international use of the currency. Although it’s a small step, it signals that China wants more integration into global financial markets. It also indicates that China knows that money is important for it to win political influence globally.