美國勞動力市場仍然吃緊； 製造業進一步下滑

Recently Yahoo New on-line reported the following:

U.S. labor market remains tight; manufacturing slumps further

Wed, January 4, 2023 at 11:18 p.m. GMT+8

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. job openings fell less than expected in November as the labor market remains tight, which could see the Federal Reserve boosting interest rates to a higher level than currently anticipated to tame inflation.

There was, however, encouraging news in the inflation fight, with a survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday showing its measure of prices paid by manufacturers for inputs diving in December to the lowest level since February 2016, discounting the plunge early in the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Fed is engaged in its fastest interest rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s as it tries to dampen demand, including for labor, to quell inflation. Last month, the U.S. central bank projected interest rates could rise to a peak of 5.1%. But persistent labor market tightness has led economists to expect that borrowing costs will increase to a much higher level and remain there for a while.

"The labor markets are still too darn hot for policymakers," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York. "Fed officials won't be confident their monetary tightening is working until hiring demand begins to slow."

Job openings, a measure of labor demand, slipped 54,000 to 10.458 million on the last day of November, the Labor Department said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report. Data for October was revised higher to show 10.512 million openings instead of the previously reported 10.334 million. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 10 million job openings.

There were 1.74 jobs for every unemployed person in November. Professional and business services reported an additional 212,000 job openings, while vacancies increased 39,000 in nondurable goods manufacturing.

But job openings dropped 75,000 in finance and insurance, one of the industries hardest hit by higher borrowing costs, and fell 44,000 in federal government.

The job openings rate was unchanged at 6.4%, though it was 0.9 percentage point below its peak in March 2022. Hiring fell to 6.055 million from 6.111 million in October. But hiring increased 74,000 in the healthcare and social assistance sector. The hiring rate dipped to 3.9% from 4.0% in October.

The Fed last year hiked its policy rate by 425 basis points from near zero to a 4.25%-4.50% range, the highest since late 2007. Last month, it projected at least an additional 75 basis points of increases in borrowing costs by the end of 2023.

Minutes of the Fed's Dec. 13-14 policy meeting published on Wednesday showed officials acknowledged "significant progress" over the past year to bring inflation down and thought the central bank now needed to balance its fight against price pressures with the risks of slowing the economy too much and "potentially placing the largest burdens on the most vulnerable groups" through higher-than-necessary unemployment.

Stocks on Wall Street were mostly higher. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices rose.

MORE RESIGNATIONS

The still-tight labor market conditions were reinforced by a 125,000 increase in the number of people resigning from their jobs to 4.173 million in November. That lifted the quits rate, viewed by policymakers and economists as a measure of job market confidence, to 2.7% from 2.6% in the prior month. Higher resignations could keep wage growth elevated and ultimately inflation. Layoffs fell 95,000 to 1.350 million.

"Workers overwhelmingly quit their old jobs to take new ones, which is a critical fuel for wage growth," said Nick Bunker, head of research at Indeed Hiring Lab. "The flipside of workers leaving their old jobs readily is that employers aren't letting go of the workers that remain."

In a separate report, the ISM said its measure of prices paid by manufacturers dropped to 39.4 from 43.0 in November. The ninth straight monthly decrease reflected fading demand for goods, which are typically bought on credit.

Supply chains are improving and Americans are shifting spending away from goods to services as the nation moves to a post-pandemic era. The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index tumbled to 45.2, the lowest since May 2020, from 47.2 in November. It was the fourth straight month this measure has been in contraction territory.

Its measure of supplier deliveries fell to 45.1 from 47.2 in November, remaining below the 50 threshold, which indicates faster deliveries to factories, for a third consecutive month. The month-over-month performance of supplier deliveries was the best since March 2009, according to ISM.

Goods prices are falling on a monthly basis, while the annual increase has slowed considerably. Economists expect goods deflation this year. Services will, however, continue to exert upward pressure on inflation.

With demand slumping, manufacturing contracted for a second straight month in December with ISM's manufacturing PMI dropping to 48.4 from 49.0.

That was the weakest since May 2020 and pushed the index just below 48.7, which the ISM says is consistent with a recession.

But with the labor market still pumping out jobs and sustaining consumer spending, it is unlikely the economy is in recession.

A PMI below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 11.3% of the U.S. economy. The survey's measure of factory employment rebounded to 51.4 from 48.4 in November.

Comments from manufacturers ranged from "huge" skilled labor shortages in the computer and electronic products industry to orders "really" slowing in the transportation equipment sector, and "customers delaying their commitments for capital purchases" in the machinery production industry.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Chizu Nomiyama)

Translation

華盛頓（路透社） - 由於勞動力市場仍然吃緊，美國 11 月職位空缺降幅低於預期，這可能導緻美聯儲將利率提高至高於目前預期的水平，以抑制通脹。

然而，在抗擊通脹方面出現了令人鼓舞的消息，供應管理協會 (ISM) 週三的一項調查顯示，其衡量製造商為投入資源所支付的價格的指標, 在敝除了在 COVID-19 病毒大流行初期的暴跌後, 在12 月份向下跌至 2016 年 2 月以來的最低水平。

美聯儲正在進行自 1980 年代以來最快的加息週期，因為它試圖抑制需求，包括對勞動力的需求，以平息通脹。 上個月，美國央行預計利率可能升至 5.1% 的峰值。 但持續的勞動力市場緊張,導致經濟學家預計借貸成本將上升到更高的水平並維持一段時間。

紐約 FWDBONDS 首席經濟學家Christopher Rupkey說: “勞動力市場對政策制定者來說仍然太熱了”; “在招聘需求開始放緩之前，美聯儲官員不會相信他們的貨幣緊縮政策正在奏效。”

勞工部在其月度職位空缺和勞動力流動調查 (JOLTS) 報告中表示，衡量勞動力需求的職位空缺在 11 月的最後一天下滑 54,000 至 1,045.8 萬。 10 月份的數據被上調至 1,051.2 萬個職位空缺，而不是之前報告的 1,033.4 萬個。 路透社調查的經濟學家此前預測有 1,000 萬個職位空缺。

11 月份每失業人口對應 1.74 個工作崗位。 專業和商業服務報告新增 212,000 個職位空缺，而非耐用品製造業職位空缺增加 39,000 個。

但金融和保險業的職位空缺減少了 75,000 個，這是受借貸成本上升影響最嚴重的行業之一，聯邦政府的職位空缺減少了 44,000 個。

職位空缺率保持在 6.4% 不變，但比 2022 年 3 月的峰值低 0.9 個百分點。招聘人數從 10 月份的 611.1 萬人降至 605.5 萬人。 但醫療保健和社會援助部門的招聘人數增加了 74,000 人。 招聘率從 10 月份的 4.0% 降至 3.9%。

美聯儲去年將政策利率從接近零的水平上調了 425 個基點至 4.25%-4.50% 的區間，為 2007 年底以來的最高水平。上個月，它預計到2023 年年底借貸成本將至少再增加 75 個基點。

週三公佈的美聯儲 12 月 13-14 日政策會議紀要顯示，官員們承認過去一年在降低通脹方面取得了 “重大進展” ，並認為央行現在需要在應對價格壓力與經濟放緩太多的風險之間取得平衡，高於必要的失業率 “可能把最弱勢群體面對最大承擔” 。

華爾街股市大多走高。 美元兌一籃子貨幣下跌。 美國國債價格上漲。

更多辭職

11 月辭去工作的人數增加 125,000 人至 417.3 萬人，加劇了仍然緊張的勞動力市場狀況。 被政策制定者和經濟學家視為衡量就業市場信心的指標的離職率從上個月的 2.6% 升至 2.7%。 更高的辭職率可能會使工資增長保持高位，並最終導致通貨膨脹。 裁員人數減少 9.5 萬人至 135 萬人。

Indeed Hiring Lab 的研究主管 Nick Bunker 表示： “工人們絕大多數都辭掉了他們的舊工作去轉換新工作，這是工資增長的關鍵動力”; “工人很容易離開他們原來的工作崗位的反面是，雇主不會放走留下來的工人。”

在另一份報告中，ISM 稱其衡量製造商支付價格的指標從 11 月份的 43.0 降至 39.4。 連續第九個月下降反映了對商品的需求減弱，這些商品通常是賒購的。

隨著國家進入病毒大流行後時代，供應鏈正在改善，美國人正在將支出從商品轉向服務。 ISM 調查的前瞻性新訂單分項指數從 11 月的 47.2 跌至 45.2，為 2020 年 5 月以來的最低水平。 這是該指標連續第四個月處於收縮區間。

ISM的供應商交付指數在11 月 從47.2 降至 45.1，連續第三個月低於 50 的門檻，這表明工廠交付速度加快。 根據 ISM 的數據，供應商交付的環比表現是 2009 年 3 月以來最好的。

商品價格逐月下降，而年度漲幅大幅放緩。 經濟學家預計今年商品通貨緊縮。 然而，服務業將繼續對通脹施加上行壓力。

隨著需求下滑，製造業在 12 月連續第二個月收縮，ISM 的製造業採購經理人指數從 49.0 降至 48.4。

這是自 2020 年 5 月以來的最低水平，推動該指數略低於 48.7，ISM 稱這與經濟衰退相符。

但由於勞動力市場仍在提供就業機會並維持消費者支出，經濟不太可能陷入衰退。

PMI 低於 50 表示製造業出現收縮, 製造業佔美國經濟的 11.3%。受調查的工廠就業指數從 11 月份的 48.4 反彈至 51.4。

製造商的各類不同評論,計有從算機和電子產品行業的 “嚴重” 熟練勞動力短缺, 到運輸設備行業的訂單 “真正” 放緩，以及機械生產行業的 “客戶延遲購買生產設備” 。

       So, about the present economic condition in the US, comments from manufacturers ranged from "huge" skilled labor shortages in the computer and electronic products industry to orders "really" slowing in the transportation equipment sector, and "customers delaying their commitments for capital purchases" in the machinery production industry. As the US economy is huge, I think what is actually happening is difficult to fully grasp and what will happen next is difficult to accurately predict.