China's Guangdong province spends 2.8 trillion yen in 3 years on "Zero corona policy"

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

中国・広東省、「ゼロコロナ政策」に３年で２．８兆円支出

2023.01.17 Tue posted at 19:45 JST

香港（ＣＮＮ） 中国の地方政府の多くが、新型コロナのパンデミック（世界的大流行）の対策に充てた巨額の費用について明らかにしている。国営メディアはかねて、同国による「ゼロコロナ政策」からの突然の転換について、コストの増大が主要な理由との見方を示唆していたが、そうした報道を裏付ける状況となっている。

今月８日、中国は国境を再開し、新型コロナを重大な感染症として扱う管理体制を公式に格下げした。新華社通信は同日の記事の中で、指導部がコロナ政策に対する認識を変更した主要な理由に言及。「コロナウイルスの撲滅が困難であること、コロナ予防と感染抑止に投じる社会的コストが上昇していること」を挙げた。

国内最大の経済規模を有する広東省は、２０２０年からの３年間でパンデミックの予防と抑止に計１４６８億元（約２兆８０００億円）を費やした。１３日に公表された省の予算報告書で明らかになった。これらの資金は新型コロナ検査やワクチン接種、数多くの政策執行に関連する支出に充てられた。コロナ以外の医療費は含まれていない。

この３年間、コロナ関連の支出は毎年５０％ずつ跳ね上がり、昨年は最高額の７１１億元に達した。これは省の研究開発費の３５％に相当する。

首都北京は１５日、コロナの予防と抑止に昨年３００億元近く費やしたと発表した。２０年比で１４０％の増加となる。同市は２１年のコロナ関連費用を明らかにしていない。

広東省と隣接する福建省は２２年、パンデミック対策に前年比５６％増の１３０億４０００万元を投入した。先週発表した省政府の予算の中から分かった。過去３年間の当該の支出は、３０５億元となっている。

中国本土で最も富裕な上海は昨年４～５月にロックダウン（都市封鎖）を余儀なくされた。大手半導体メーカーが工場を構える市内の松江区は昨年、コロナ関連の費用が４４億５０００万元に達したのに対し、医療費は３６億２５００万元にとどまった。

中央と地方政府を合わせた昨年１～１０月の財政赤字は６兆６６００億元。１年前から３倍近い水準に膨れ上がった。ＣＮＮが中国政府財政部のデータに基づいて算出した。エコノミストらが試算した昨年通年での赤字額は過去最高となる１０兆元だった。

Translation

Hong Kong (CNN) - Many of China's local governments revealed billions of dollars had been spent on fighting the coronavirus pandemic. State media had long suggested that rising costs were the main reason for the country's abrupt shift from its "Zero coronavirus" policy, and such suggestions supported the situation now being reported.

On the 8th of this month, China reopened its borders and officially downgraded its management regime of treating the new coronavirus as a serious infectious disease. In an article on the same day, the Xinhua News Agency cited the main reasons why the leadership changed its perception on the corona policy. It said, "It is difficult to eradicate the coronavirus, and the social cost of preventing and controlling the spread of the virus is rising."

Guangdong, the country's largest economy, spent a total of 146.8 billion yuan ($2.8 billion) on pandemic prevention and containment in the three years from 2020. This was revealed in the ministry's budget report released on the 13th. These funds were used to pay for COVID-19 testing, vaccination, and a number of policy enforcement-related expenditures. Non-corona medical expenses were not included.

Over the past three years, coronavirus-related spending had jumped by 50% each year, reaching a peak of 71.1 billion yuan last year. This was equivalent to 35% of the province's R&D expenditure.

The capital, Beijing, said on Thursday that it spent nearly 30 billion yuan on coronavirus prevention and control last year. This represented an increase of 140% compared to 2020. The city had not disclosed coronavirus-related costs for 2021.

In 2022, Guangdong's neighboring Fujian province spent 13.04 billion yuan on pandemic fights, up 56% from the previous year. This was made known in the provincial government's budget announced last week. The relevant expenditure in the past three years amounted to 30.5 billion yuan.

Mainland China's richest city, Shanghai, was forced to go into lockdown in April-May last year. In the city's Songjiang district, where a major chip maker had factories, coronavirus-related costs reached 4.45 billion yuan last year, while medical expenses stood at 3.625 billion yuan.

The fiscal deficit of the central and local governments in total for the period from January to October last year amounted to 6.66 trillion yuan. It had nearly tripled from a year ago. CNN made the calculations based on data from China's Ministry of Finance. Economists estimated a record high deficit of 10 trillion yuan for the full year.

              So, the main reasons why the CCP leadership changes its corona policy is that it is difficult to eradicate the coronavirus, and the social cost of preventing and controlling the spread of the virus is too high to bear. In my dictionary "social cost" could have a lot of meaning.

日本最高級別經濟小組辯論可能放棄 “安倍經濟學”

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Japan's top economic panel debates potential shift away from 'Abenomics'

Mon, January 16, 2023 at 12:42 a.m. PST

By Tetsushi Kajimoto and Yoshifumi Takemoto

TOKYO (Reuters) - The Japanese government's top economic policy panel on Monday held its first round of special sessions that will discuss the medium-to-long term direction of fiscal and monetary policies, including the pros and cons of "Abenomics".

Japan pursued a reflationary policy led by monetary stimulus under former premier Shinzo Abe which has helped pull the world's No. 3 economy out of 15 years of deflation.

Financial markets are, however, now more focused on if and when the central bank will pull back on monetary stimulus, given sharp rises in inflation.

"There's a global economic trend of shifting towards new policy as seen in (U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet) Yellen's calls for modern economic policy, which would mark a shift away from conventional supply-side economics," Economy Minister Shigeyuki Goto told reporters after the special sessions.

The sessions will be held several more times to reflect the debates on the government's annual economic policy blueprint, due out in June.

Goto said he would attend the Davos meeting this week to reaffirm Japan's stance of prioritising economic recovery near term before reining in medium- to long-term fiscal reform.

Eight economists, including an expert on the country's inflation trends, were invited to the session.

The sessions do not intend to discuss the Bank of Japan's exit strategy or draft new policy objectives to review a 2013 written mission statement between the government and the central bank, Cabinet Office officials said.

The statement in question was issued in January 2013 shortly after Abe swept to power pledging to reflate the economy, in which the BOJ vowed to achieve a 2% inflation target at the earliest possible time, while the government aimed to undertake structural reform, or the third arrow of Abenomics and tackle fiscal reform in the long run.

Monday's session comes just one day before the BOJ kicks off its first two-day rate-review of 2023.

Financial markets have bet that a weak yen, rising consumer prices and more political pressure from the government will force the central bank to finally drop its ultra-loose policy at or after the end of Kuroda's 10-year tenure this April.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida last month announced the plan for the special CEFP sessions, saying they would stimulate discussion on how to achieve a "virtuous cycle" of growth that could be reflected in the government's annual mid-year policy blueprint.

Translation

東京（路透社）- 日本政府最高級別經濟政策小組週一舉行了第一輪特別會議，討論財政和貨幣政策的中長期方向，包括“安倍經濟學”的利弊。

日本在前首相安倍晉三的領導下推行以貨幣刺激為主導的再通脹政策，幫助這個世界第三大經濟體擺脫了 15 年的通貨緊縮。

然而，鑑於通脹急劇上升，金融市場現在更加關注央行是否以及何時撤回貨幣刺激措施。

日本經濟再生大臣後藤茂之 (Shigeyuki Goto) 在特別會議結束後告訴記者: “從（美國財政部長Janet）Yellen 對現代經濟政策的呼籲中可以看出，全球經濟正在轉向新政策，這將標誌著告別傳統的供求經濟學” 。

這些會議將再舉行幾次，以反映對將於 6 月公佈的政府年度經濟政策藍圖的辯論。

後藤表示他將出席本週的達沃斯會議，以重申日本在控制中長期財政改革之前優先考慮近期經濟復甦的立場。

包括日本通貨膨脹趨勢專家在內的八位經濟學家被邀請參加會議。

內閣府官員表示，這些會議無意討論日本央行的退出戰略, 或起草新的政策目標以審查政府與央行之間的 2013 年書面任務聲明。

有關任務聲明是在2013 年 1 月在安倍上台後不久發表的，他承諾要使經濟再膨脹，其中日本央行誓言要儘早實現 2% 的通脹目標，而政府的目標是進行結構性改革，或安倍經濟學的第三支箭，著眼於長遠的財政改革。

週一的會議恰逢日本央行開始其 2023 年首次為期兩天的利率審查前一天。

金融市場押注日元疲軟、消費者價格上漲以及來自政府的更多政治壓力將迫使央行在今年 4 月黑田東彥 10 年任期結束時, 或之後, 最終放棄其超寬鬆政策。

日本首相岸田文雄上個月宣布了 CEFP 特別會議的計劃，稱他們將激發關於如何實現 “良性循環” 增長的討論，這討論會反映在政府的年度年中政策藍圖中。

       So, Japan perceives that there's a shift in global economic trend in moving away from the conventional supply-side economics. I am interested in knowing how the new economic trend will work.

Note:

Reflation refers to policies aimed at stimulating the economy and combating deflation. Reflation policies include: (1) increasing the money supply, (2) lowering the tax rate, (3) reducing interest rates, and (4) investing in large capital projects. (https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/reflation/)

World's largest semiconductor producer Taiwan TSMC considers building a second factory in Japan

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

半導体生産で世界最大手 台湾TSMC 日本に2番目の工場建設検討

2023年1月12日 20時40分

半導体の受託生産で世界最大手の台湾のTSMCは、日本で2番目となる半導体工場の建設を検討していることを明らかにしました。

これは会社が12日、オンラインで開いた決算発表の記者会見で魏哲家CEOが明らかにしました。

魏CEOは「日本で2番目の工場の建設を検討している」と述べ、条件として「顧客の需要と政府の支援が合理的な水準であること」を挙げました。

TSMCは現在、日本で初めての工場をソニーグループなどと共同で熊本県に建設中で、来年末までに量産を始める予定です。

TSMCは各国から工場建設の誘致を受けていて先月、アメリカのアリゾナ州で最先端の半導体を生産する工場を新たに建設すると発表しています。

一方、TSMCの去年1年間の決算は、売り上げが前の年より42.6％多い2兆2638億台湾元、およそ9兆8000億円、最終的な利益は前の年より70.4％多い1兆165億台湾元、およそ4兆4000億円で、いずれも過去最高を更新しました。

Translation

Taiwan's TSMC, the world's largest contract manufacturer of semiconductors, revealed that it was considering building a second semiconductor factory in Japan.

This was announced by CEO CC Wei at the company's online financial results announcement press conference on the 12th.

CEO Wei said, ``We are considering building a second factory in Japan,'' and cited ``a reasonable level of customer demand and government support'' as a condition.

TSMC was currently constructing Japan's first factory in Kumamoto Prefecture jointly with the Sony Group and others, and planned to start mass production by the end of next year.

TSMC had received invitations to build factories from various countries, and last month announced that it would build a new factory to produce state-of-the-art semiconductors in Arizona, USA.

On the other hand, TSMC's financial results for last year showed sales of NT$2.2638 trillion, about 9.8 trillion yen, up 42.6% from the previous year, and the final profit was 1.0165 trillion yuan, about 4.4 trillion yen, up 70.4% from the previous year, both of which were new record highs.

              So, Taiwan's TSMC has revealed that it is considering building a second semiconductor factory in Japan. It seems that the company is diversifying its production centre away from Taiwan and I am wondering if this is a response to the tense situation caused by threats from mainland China.

Japan-U.S. Strengthen Military Ties - Reorganization of U.S. Marine Corps in Okinawa to Deter China

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

日米が軍事関係強化、中国の抑止念頭に沖縄の米海兵隊改編へ

2023.01.12 Thu posted at 11:22 JST

 （ＣＮＮ） 日米両国は１１日、双方の軍事関係を大幅に強化し、日本における米軍の態勢を刷新すると発表した。これには改編された米海兵隊部隊の駐留も含まれる。同部隊は先進的な諜報（ちょうほう）・偵察能力のほか、対艦ミサイルの発射能力も備える。事情を把握する米国の当局者２人が明らかにした。

改編された「海兵沿岸連隊」の配備については、日米の外務・防衛担当閣僚協議（２プラス２）に臨んだ米国のオースティン国防長官が記者会見で発表した。会見にはブリンケン国務長官のほか日本側の林芳正外相、浜田靖一防衛相も同席した。

オースティン氏によると当該の連隊は戦闘力や機動性を高めており、配備は地域の抑止力拡大につながる。米軍が日本及び日本国民をより効果的に防衛することが可能になる見通しだという。

発表は中国に強力なメッセージを送るもので、日米が策定した一連の構想の一環。この構想は安全保障と諜報における両国間の結びつきを加速することを念頭に置く。

１３日にはバイデン大統領と岸田文雄首相による日米首脳会談がホワイトハウスで行われる予定。 

上記の海兵沿岸連隊は沖縄に配備され、即応部隊として日本の防衛に当たる。複数の米当局者が１１日に明らかにした。沖縄は台湾に近いことなどから、太平洋における米軍の作戦上の重要地点とみなされている。２０を超える沖縄の米軍基地には、２万５０００人以上の米軍要員が駐留する。日本の米軍基地のおよそ７割が沖縄に集中している。

今回の海兵沿岸連隊の沖縄配備は、米軍にとってこの数年で最も重要な改編だと当局者の１人は指摘する。これに先駆け、ワシントンの有力なシンクタンクが机上演習（シミュレーション）を行い、中国との軍事紛争において日本、とりわけ沖縄が極めて重大な役割を果たすとも分析していた。

このほかにも日米は１１日、両国の防衛協定を拡大し、宇宙空間での攻撃もその内容に含めると発表した。背景には急速な進歩を遂げる中国の宇宙計画や極超音速兵器の開発についての懸念の高まりがある。

Translation

(CNN) The United States and Japan announced on Monday that they would significantly strengthen their military ties and revamp the posture of the U.S. forces in Japan. This would include the presence of a reorganized U.S. Marine Corps unit. The unit would have advanced intelligence and reconnaissance capabilities, as well as the ability to launch anti-ship missiles. Two U.S. officials familiar with the matter said this.

The deployment of the reorganized "Marine Coastal Regiment" was announced at a press conference by US Secretary of Defense Austin during the Japan-US Foreign and Defense Ministerial Talks (2+2). The press conference was attended by Secretary of State Brinken, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, and Defense Minister Seiichi Hamada.

Austin said the regiment would become more combat and mobile, and the deployment could increase deterrence in the region. It was expected that the US military would be able to defend Japan and its people more effectively.

The announcement sent a powerful message to China and was part of a series of initiatives developed by the United States and Japan. The initiative sought to accelerate ties between the two countries in security and intelligence.

President Biden and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida would hold a Japan-US summit at the White House on the 13th.

The Marine Coastal Regiment mentioned above would be deployed to Okinawa and could serve as a readiness force to defend Japan. This was according to multiple U.S. officials on the 11th. Due to its proximity to Taiwan and other factors, Okinawa was considered an important operational point for U.S. forces in the Pacific. More than 25,000 US military personnel are stationed at more than 20 US military bases on Okinawa. About 70% of the US military bases in Japan were concentrated in Okinawa.

The deployment of the Marine Coastal Regiment to Okinawa would be the most significant restructuring of the U.S. military in years, one official said. Prior to this, an influential think tank in Washington conducted a tabletop exercise (simulation), and analyzed that Japan, especially Okinawa, would play an extremely important role in a military conflict with China.

In addition, Japan and the United States announced on the 11th that they would expand their defense pact to include attacks in outer space. This came amid growing concerns about China's rapidly advancing space program and hypersonic weapon development.

So, the US and Japan will significantly strengthen their military ties and revamp the posture of the U.S. forces in Japan by reorganizing the U.S. Marine Corps unit. It is quite clear that the level of confrontation in the area is increasing.

Even if the temperature rise is limited to 1.5 degrees, about half of the glaciers will disappear by the end of this century

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

気温上昇1.5度に抑えても“今世紀末までに約半数の氷河消滅”

2023年1月10日 9時45分

世界の氷河に対する地球温暖化の影響について、平均気温の上昇を「パリ協定」で各国が努力すると定めた1.5度に抑えられたとしても、およそ半数の氷河が今世紀末までに消滅するというシミュレーション結果を、アメリカなどの研究チームが発表しました。

この研究結果は、アメリカのカーネギーメロン大学などの研究チームが、今月5日に科学雑誌の「サイエンス」に発表しました。

研究チームは、世界中の氷河、あわせて21万余りがどのくらい溶けるか、温暖化により上昇する世界の平均気温を変えてシミュレーションを行いました。

その結果、気温の上昇を2015年のパリ協定で各国が努力すると定めた「1.5度」に抑えられたとしても、およそ49％の氷河が今世紀末までに溶けて消滅することがわかったということです。

さらに気温上昇を4度と仮定した場合、およそ83％の氷河が消滅し、これはおよそ15センチの海面上昇に相当すると試算しています。

近年、世界各地で気温の上昇が原因とみられる氷河の崩落や洪水が報告されていて、研究グループは「多数の氷河が消滅するのを避けるにはもう遅いが、気温上昇を抑える取り組みは将来、失われる氷河の数を減らすのに有効だ」としています。

Translation

It was announced by a research team in the United States that regarding the impact of global warming on the world's glaciers, simulation results showed that even if the average temperature rise was limited to 1.5 degrees, which all countries stipulated in the "Paris Agreement", about half of the glaciers could disappear by the end of this century.

The results of this research were published by a research team at Carnegie Mellon University in the United States on the 5th of this month in the science magazine "Science".

The research team simulated how much glaciers around the world, a total of more than 210,000, would melt, by the changes in the average global temperature which went up due to global warming.

As a result, it was found that even if the rise in temperature could be limited to "1.5 degrees", which all country were striving for in the 2015 Paris Agreement, about 49% of the glaciers could melt and disappear by the end of this century.

Furthermore, assuming a temperature rise of 4 degrees, about 83% of the glaciers could disappear, which was estimated to be equivalent to a sea level rise of about 15 cm.

In recent years, glacier collapses and floods had been reported around the world that appeared to be caused by rising temperatures, and the researchers said that "it is too late to avoid the disappearance of many glaciers, but efforts to limit temperature rise will be effective in reducing the number of glaciers lost in the future."

              So, according to the report, even if the average temperature rise is limited to 1.5 degrees, about half of the glaciers will disappear by the end of this century. I am wondering are we doing enough to save our planet.

USDA approves first vaccine against bacterial infections in bees

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

ミツバチの細菌感染症を防ぐ初のワクチン、米農務省が承認

2023.01.08 Sun posted at 13:00 JST

（ＣＮＮ） ミツバチの巣を死滅させる細菌感染症、アメリカ腐蛆（ふそ）病を予防する初のワクチンが、米農務省に承認された。

農務省によると、ダラン・アニマル・ヘルスの関連会社、ダイヤモンド・アニマル・ヘルスに対して１２月２９日、条件付きワクチン免許を交付した。農務省がミツバチ製品に免許を交付したのは同社が初めてだった。

農務省は「この製品の提供が、アメリカ腐蛆病の予防や治療に役立つことを期待する」との声明を発表した。同省のウェブサイトでは、アメリカ腐蛆病を「最も広範に拡大し、最も破壊的なミツバチの腐蛆病のひとつ」と形容している。

同ワクチンを製造するダラン・アニマル・ヘルスの４日の発表によると、アメリカ腐蛆病についてはこれまで、抗生剤による治療に加え、ハチと感染した巣を焼却処分することが主な対処法とされてきた。

カリフォルニア州養蜂家協会の役員は、「養蜂家にとって素晴らしい一歩だ。抗生剤による治療は効果が限られ、多大な時間と労力を必要とする」「巣の感染を予防できれば高額な治療を避け、ハチの健康を保つための対策に集中できる」とワクチン承認を歓迎した。

ダランによると、ミツバチ用のワクチンは、注射器で注入するのではなく、働きバチの餌に混ぜて投与する。働きバチがワクチンを取り込んだローヤルゼリーを女王バチに食べさせると、ワクチンの断片が女王バチの卵巣に蓄えられ、アメリカ腐蛆病に対して免疫を持つ幼虫が生まれる。

ダランによると、ワクチンは年内に米国で発売する。

Translation

(CNN) The USDA had approved the first vaccine to prevent American foulbrood, a bacterial infection that killed hives.

The USDA issued a conditional vaccine license on December 29 to Diamond Animal Health, an affiliate of Dalan Animal Health. The company was the first to have a bee product licensed by the USDA. 

The USDA said in a statement that "We hope this product offering will help prevent and treat American foulbrood". This department's website described American foulbrood as "one of the most widespread and devastating honeybee foulbroods."

According to a statement on the 4th by Dalan Animal Health which made the vaccine, until now, the main treatment for American foulbrood had been to incinerate bees and infected hives together, in addition to treatment with antibiotics.

An official with the California Beekeepers Association welcomed the approval of the vaccine and said that "It's a great step forward for beekeepers and that antibiotic treatment has limited efficacy and requires a lot of time and effort"; and that “If we can prevent hive infection, we can avoid expensive treatments and focus on measures in keeping bees healthy.”

Instead of injecting vaccines for bees with a syringe, Dalan said they would be administered by mixing them into worker bee food. When worker bees fed the queen bee with vaccine-loaded royal jelly, bits of the vaccine would be stored in the queen's ovaries, producing larvae that could be immunized to American foulbrood.

Dalan said the vaccine would be made available in the US within this year.

              So, the USDA has approved the first vaccine to prevent American foulbrood. Vaccines are administered by mixing them into worker bee food. It's a great step forward for the beekeeping industry in the US.

Note:

Dalan Animal Health in its web-site says that their mission is to provide safe, innovative, and sustainable solutions for beekeepers to protect their businesses. They develop vaccines and biotherapeutics to improve the health and productivity of honeybee colonies. (https://www.dalan.com/)

Omicron strain "XBB.1.5" tends to be highly infectious in the US - WHO initial survey

Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:

オミクロン株「XBB.1.5」 米では感染力が強い傾向 WHO初期調査

2023年1月12日 18時06分

 WHO＝世界保健機関は11日、アメリカで急速に感染が広がっている新型コロナウイルスのオミクロン株の1つ「XBB.1.5」の特徴やリスクについて、専門家による初期調査の結果を公表しました。

それによりますと、アメリカでは比較的、感染力が強い傾向が見られたほか、過去の感染やワクチン接種で得た免疫から逃れる性質もこれまでの変異株の中で、最も強い部類に入るとみられるということです。

一方で、重症化のしやすさや、現在のワクチンによって重症化や死亡率を下げる効果については、現時点では十分なデータはないということです。

こうしたことから、「XBB.1.5」について「世界的な感染者数の拡大につながる可能性があるが、感染力の強さの推定はアメリカ1か国のみのデータに基づいているため、全体的な信頼度は低い」としていて、今後もデータの収集を続け、評価を行うことにしています。

CDC＝アメリカ疾病対策センターによりますと、アメリカで今月7日までの1週間に新型コロナに新たに感染した人のうち、推計で27.6％が「XBB.1.5」で、先月3日の時点の推計2.3％から急速に広がっています。

WHOによりますと「XBB.1.5」は、去年10月22日から今月11日までの間にこれまで38か国から報告されていて、その8割以上がアメリカからだということです。

「XBB.1.5」日本国内の状況は

オミクロン株の1つ「XBB.1.5」は、複数のタイプの新型コロナウイルスが組み合わさった変異ウイルスです。

去年春ごろから日本国内でも広がったオミクロン株の「BA.2」の2つのタイプが組み合わさった変異ウイルス「XBB」に、さらに変異が加わっています。

12日に開かれた東京都のモニタリング会議では、先月1日に初めて都内で確認されて以降、これまでに15例確認されていると報告されました。

厚生労働省の専門家会合は、WHO＝世界保健機関などで感染者数の増加につながっている可能性が指摘されているものの、感染性や重症度に関する疫学や臨床の知見はないとしていて、諸外国の状況などを分析するとともに、ゲノム解析による監視を続けることが必要だとしています。

「XBB.1.5」について東京医科大学の濱田篤郎特任教授は「免疫から逃れる性質だけでなく感染力がさらに強まっている可能性が指摘されている。このウイルスの流入で今の第8波が長引くことも懸念される」と話しています。

Translation

WHO = The World Health Organization announced on the 11th the results of an initial survey by experts on the characteristics and risks of `` XBB.1.5 '', one of the Omicron strains of the new coronavirus, that is rapidly spreading in the United States.

According to this survey, in the United States, in addition to the tendency to be relatively infectious, the ability to escape immunity obtained from past infections and vaccinations were considered to be among the strongest category of the mutation strains so far.

On the other hand, there was not enough data at this time on the susceptibility to severe disease, and the effectiveness of current vaccines in reducing severe disease and mortality.

For these reasons, about "XBB.1.5", as “it may lead to an increase in the number of infected people worldwide, but the estimation of its strength of infection is based on data from only one country, the United States”, so collecting data and conducting evaluations would continue.

According to the CDC = U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, an estimated 27.6% of the people newly infected with the new corona in the United States in the week ending on the 7th of this month were "XBB.1.5", and because as of the 3rd of last month the estimate was 2.3. %, so, it was spreading rapidly.

According to the WHO, "XBB.1.5" had been reported from 38 countries between October 22nd and 11th of this year, more than 80% of which were from the United States.

The situation of "XBB.1.5" in Japan

One of the Omicron strains, “XBB.1.5,” was a mutated virus that combined multiple types of new coronaviruses.

Further mutations had been added to the mutated virus "XBB", which was a combination of two types of the Omicron strain "BA.2" that was spreading in Japan since last spring.

At a monitoring meeting held in Tokyo on the 12th, it was reported that since the first confirmation in Tokyo on the 1st of last month, 15 cases had been confirmed so far.

An expert meeting of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, it noted that although the WHO = World Health Organization had pointed out that it might lead to an increase in the number of infected people, there was no epidemiological or clinical knowledge regarding infectivity and severity, so it was necessary to analyze the situation in other countries and continue monitoring through genome analysis.

Regarding "XBB.1.5", Atsuro Hamada (濱田篤郎), a specially appointed professor at Tokyo Medical University, said, "It has been pointed out that there is a possibility that not only the nature of escaping immunity, but also the ability to infect is further enhanced. There are concerns that the current 8th wave will be prolonged due to the arrival of this virus.”

              So, WHO has announced the results of an initial survey on the characteristics and risks of XBB.1.5 that is rapidly spreading in the United States. In Japan there are concerns that its current 8th wave of coronavirus pandemic will be prolonged due to the influx of this virus. It seems that the pandemic is far from over globally.

中國去美元化的雄心又向前邁進了一步

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China’s Ambitions for De-dollarization Take Another Step Forward

George Lei, Ye Xie and Sydney Maki

Thu, January 5, 2023 at 11:45 a.m. GMT+8

(Bloomberg) -- China’s latest efforts to broaden interest in its onshore currency market show a firm commitment to bolstering the yuan’s global appeal as Beijing works on its approach to chip away at the US dollar’s hegemony.

Officials this week extended trading hours for the onshore yuan as part of its attempt to increase international use of the currency. Admittedly, it’s a small step, but it follows a push to boost its use in transactions with major energy and commodity exporters and data showing rapid growth in yuan trading activity.

The sheer strength of the dollar in the first half of last year and its weaponization to enforce sanctions on Russia has given fresh impetus to some of the world’s biggest economies to explore ways to circumvent the US currency. While no one is saying the greenback will be dethroned anytime soon from its reign as the principal medium of exchange, experimenting with de-dollarization has increased.

An opening up of markets has long been on the agenda for China’s government. But increased tensions over issues ranging from Taiwan and Russia to semi-conductor technology and trade potentially give an added sense of urgency for leaders in Beijing.

“Beijing is trying hard to keep the yuan relevant as an international currency to counter recent geopolitical tensions and hostile sentiments, especially in the US,” said Stephen Jen, chief executive officer of London-based hedge fund Eurizon SLJ Capital.

The reaffirmation of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s leadership at last year’s five-yearly Communist Party Congress also provides a firmer platform for pursuing progress in market policies, although concerns around the country’s opening up from Covid-mitigation measures could add to challenges.

China this week extended trading hours for the onshore yuan as part of its attempt to increase international use of the currency, meaning that foreign-exchange transactions are now possible until 3 a.m. Beijing time instead of the 11:30 p.m. cutoff that was previously in place. That takes trading into the European evening and much deeper into the US day.

With only a few local banks equipped to take advantage of the new times — which were only announced a few days before — the move was met with a tepid response. On Tuesday — the first day of the extension — only $128 million changed hands during the extra 3.5 hours, around 0.4% of the full day’s volume, according to China Foreign Exchange Trade System. CFETS said 16 banks participated in the extended hours, including spot and derivative markets.

But the shift could, along with other initiatives like encouraging the yuan’s use in commodity transactions, help pave the way for greater use of the currency, which remains more tightly managed than most major peers.

The longer trading hours make it “easier for foreigners” to do business with the country, according to Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.’s New York-based global head of currency strategy Win Thin, who also drew attention to the fact that investments had been flowing out of China.

Data show, for example, that global funds offloaded yuan-denominated government bonds for 10 straight months in 2022 and that the country was on track for its first net outflow since such records began in 2013.

The Chinese yuan trades in distinctly separated offshore and onshore markets — referred to respectively as CNH and CNY. For most international traders, the offshore market is the more critical one, and it has seen major growth in recent years. It trades around the clock and is not subject to the same kind of controls that exist within China itself. This latest move, meanwhile, is focused on the onshore market.

The Bank for International Settlements’ most recent triennial survey of FX trading showed that the yuan as a whole had the fastest growth among 39 currencies it covered. Average daily use jumped to around $526 billion per day, an increase of more than 70% once exchange-rate movements are factored in. That turnover increase was largely driven by trading between counterparties outside mainland China, which doubled between 2019 and 2022 to account for about 80% of all the trades in the currency.

Yuan trading volumes, however, remained low relative to the size of China’s economy - at around 3% of annual gross domestic product - compared with 30% of GDP for the US dollar and 6% for the median emerging-market currency. A separate survey by the BIS last year shows the yuan was involved in 7% of all trades in 2022 compared with the dollar’s 88% as the fifth most traded currency globally.

It also coincides with a push to boost the use of the yuan in transactions with major energy and commodity exporters. Russia, which has tilted more energy sales toward China after the fallout from the war in Ukraine saw it cut off from many of its other customers, has doubled, to 60%, the proportion of its $186.5 billion National Wellbeing Fund that can be held in yuan. And with Saudi Arabia, China last month signed some $50 billion of investment agreements as Xi reinforced ties between the two countries by making a visit to Riyadh.

Having extended yuan trading hours would be supportive of efforts to boost these kinds of transactions with Russia and Saudi Arabia, according to Victor Xing, principal at Kekselias Inc., a portfolio manager and research provider in Pasadena, California.

The yuan rallied to the strongest level in four months after China announced the trading hour extension. The currency has advanced since November as global investors bet on China’s economic recovery following the nation’s Covid policy shift.

“It’s a positive signal for China reopening to the rest of the world,” said Brendan McKenna, a currency strategist at Wells Fargo & Co. in New York. The move is “a signal that China wants more integration into global financial markets than anything else.”

Translation

（彭博社）- 隨著北京方面努力削弱美元霸權，中國為擴大對在岸貨幣市場的利益而做出的最新努力, 表明了它增強人民幣全球吸引力的堅定承諾。

官員們本周延長了在岸人民幣的交易時間，作為其試圖增加該貨幣國際使用的一部分。 誠然，這是一小步，但這是在推動人民幣在與主要能源和大宗商品出口國交易中的使用, 以及在數據顯示人民幣交易活動快速增長之後發生的。

去年上半年美元的絕對強勢及其對俄羅斯實施制裁的武器化，為世界上一些最大的經濟體探索規避美元的方法提供了新的動力。 雖然沒有人說美元作為主要交易媒介的地位會很快被廢除，但去美元化的試驗已經增加。

長期以來，開放市場一直是中國政府的議程。 但從台灣和俄羅斯到半導體技術和貿易等問題的緊張局勢加劇，可能會給北京的領導人帶來更多的迫切感。

總部位於倫敦的對沖基金 Eurizon SLJ Capital 的首席執行官 Stephen Jen 表示： “北京正在努力保持人民幣作為有國際地位的貨幣，以應對近期的地緣政治緊張局勢和敵對情緒，尤其是在美國。”

中國國家主席習近平在去年的五年一度的共產黨代表大會上重申了其領導地位，這也為推動市場政策取得進展提供了更穩固的平台，儘管圍繞中國因新冠疫情緩解措施而開放的擔憂, 可能會增加挑戰。

中國本周延長了在岸人民幣的交易時間，作為其增加人民幣在國際被使用的嘗試的一部分，這意味著現在可以在北京時間凌晨 3 點之前進行外匯交易，而不是晚上 11:30, 即以前設置的截止時間。 這帶領交易進入歐洲之晚，並更深進入美國的交易日。

由於只有少數地方銀行準備好利用幾天前才宣布的新時代，此舉得到了不太熱烈的回應。 根據中國外匯交易中心的數據，週二（延期的第一天）在額外的 3.5 小時內僅易手 1.28 億美元，約佔全天交易量的 0.4%。 中國外匯交易中心表示，16 家銀行參與了延長交易時間，包括現貨和衍生品市場。

但這種轉變，連同其他舉措鼓勵人民幣在商品交易中使用等，可能有助於為更多使用人民幣鋪平道路，與大多數主要貨幣相比，人民幣的管理仍然更加嚴格。

Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. 駐紐約的全球貨幣策略主管 Win Thin 表示，更長的交易時間讓 “外國人更容易” 與該國做生意，他還提出要注意投資已經一直流出中國。

例如，數據顯示，全球基金在 2022 年連續 10 個月拋售以人民幣計價的政府債券，中國有機會出現自 2013 年開始有此類記錄以來的首次淨流出。

人民幣有明顯不同的離岸和在岸市場交易 - 分別稱為 CNH 和 CNY。 對於大多數國際貿易商而言，離岸市場更為關鍵，近年來增長迅速。 它全天候交易，不受中國境內存在的同樣控制。 與此同時，這一最新舉措側重於在岸市場。

國際清算銀行最近期的三年一度的外匯交易調查顯示，在其涵蓋的 39 種貨幣中人民幣整體增長最快。 平均每日使用量躍升至每天 5,260 億美元左右，如果將匯率變動考慮在內，增幅超過 70%。營業額的增長主要是由與中國大陸以外的交易對手之間的交易所推動，該交易額在 2019 年至 2022 年期間翻了一番，佔貨幣交易額的大約 80%。

然而，相對於中國貿易規模，人民幣交易量仍然較低, 約為年度國內生產總值的 3% - 相比之下，美元佔中國生產總值的 30%，人民幣佔新興市場貨幣的中值 6%。 國際清算銀行去年的另一項調查顯示，2022 年人民幣佔全球所有交易的 7%，而美元佔88%, 人民幣交易量為第五大貨幣。

這也恰逢推動人民幣在與主要能源和大宗商品出口國的交易中的使用。 在烏克蘭戰爭的後果導致俄羅斯與許多其他客戶斷絕關係後，俄羅斯將更多的能源銷售轉向中國，俄羅斯在其 1,865 億美元的國家福利基金中可以持有人民幣的比例翻了一番，達到 60%。 隨著習近平訪問利雅得加强两國關係，中國上個月與沙特阿拉伯簽署了約 500 億美元的投資協議。

加利福尼亞州 Pasadena 的投資組合經理和研究提供商 Kekselias Inc. 的負責人 Victor Xing 表示，延長人民幣交易時間將有助於促進與俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯的此類交易。

在中國宣布延長交易時間後，人民幣升至四個月以來的最高水平。 自 11 月以來，隨著全球投資者押注中國的新冠疫情政策轉變後經濟復甦，人民幣上漲。

紐約Wells Fargo & Co.的貨幣策略師 Brendan McKenna說: “這是中國向世界其他地區重新開放的積極信號” 。 此舉是 “一個信號，表明中國最希望融入全球金融市場。”

              So, China has extended the trading hours for the onshore yuan as part of its attempt to increase international use of the currency. Although it’s a small step, it signals that China wants more integration into global financial markets. It also indicates that China knows that money is important for it to win political influence globally.

輝瑞首席執行官排除通用版的冠狀病毒藥物 Paxlovid 在中國的可能性

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Pfizer CEO rules out generic COVID drug Paxlovid for China

Tue, January 10, 2023 at 8:12 a.m. GMT+8

(Reuters) -Pfizer Inc is not in talks with Chinese authorities to license a generic version of its COVID-19 treatment Paxlovid for use there, but is in discussions about a price for the branded product, Chief Executive Albert Bourla said on Monday.

Reuters reported on Friday that China was in talks with Pfizer to secure a licence that will allow domestic drugmakers to manufacture and distribute a generic version of the U.S. firm's COVID-19 antiviral drug Paxlovid in China.

Referring to that report, Bourla, speaking at J.P. Morgan's healthcare conference in San Francisco, said "We are not in discussions. We have an agreement already for local manufacturing of Paxlovid in China. So we have a local partner that will make Paxlovid for us, and then we will sell it to the Chinese market."

Pfizer has a licensing agreement with the U.N-backed Medicines Patent Pool (MPP) that allows 35 drugmakers around the world to make cheap versions of Paxlovid and supply the treatment in 95 poorer countries.

That licence does not allow them to sell generic Paxlovid in China, where infections have surged since December, prompting a severe shortage of flu and COVID drugs.

A box of Paxlovid, used for a single course of treatment, is changing hands for as much as 50,000 yuan ($7,313), according to local media reports and social media posts, against the original price of around 2,000 yuan.

Bourla said the company had shipped thousands of courses of the treatment in 2022 to China and in the past couple of weeks, had increased that to millions.

On Sunday, China's Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) said that the country would not include Paxlovid in an update to its list of medicines covered by basic medical insurance schemes as the U.S. firm quoted a high price for the COVID-19 drug.

The drug is currently covered by China's broad healthcare insurance scheme under temporary measures until the end of March.

Bourla said that talks with China on future pricing for the treatment had broken off after China had asked for a lower price than Pfizer is charging for most lower middle income countries.

"They are the second highest economy in the world and I don't think that they should pay less than El Salvador," Bourla said.

The failure of the talks to include Pfizer in the list of medicines covered by basic state health insurance generated heated discussions on Chinese social media on Monday.

Some Chinese media reported that Pfizer had lowered the price of Paxlovid to 600 yuan in the negotiations, triggering a wave of criticism and questions on social media as to why Chinese regulators had not accepted that price.

A separate report by financial magazine Caixin on Monday cited unnamed sources as saying that Pfizer had not lowered its price significantly beyond the 1,890 yuan it currently charges Chinese hospitals.

Pfizer declined to comment on the Chinese media reports about the price it quoted during the negotiations. NHSA did not immediately reply to a Reuters request for comment on the negotiations.

China's state media Global Times accused Pfizer of trying to profit from China's COVID battle in an opinion piece on Monday.

"It is not a secret that U.S. capital forces have already accumulated quite a fortune from the world via selling vaccines and drugs, and the U.S. government has been coordinating all along. There is no so-called human right, but monopoly," it said.

"If they do care about it (the epidemic in China), why don't Pfizer drop some pursuit of the profit, and cooperate with China with a little more sincerity?"

Bourla said the removal from the list would not have an effect on the company's business there until April and the company could end up selling only to the private market in China.

Pfizer signed a deal in August for Chinese drugmaker Zhejiang Huahai to produce Paxlovid in mainland China solely for patients there.

Bourla said production is gearing up in China and progress has been made that may allow it to start manufacturing in the first half of the year, ahead of its year-end internal estimate.

(Reporting by Michael Erman in New York, Brenda Goh in Shanghai, Sophie Yu in Beijing; Editing by Miyoung Kim, Muralikumar Anantharaman and Raju Gopalakrishnan)

Translation

（路透社）- 輝瑞公司首席執行官Albert Bourla 週一表示，輝瑞公司並未與中國當局就許可其冠狀病毒治療藥物 Paxlovid 的通用版在中國使用進行談判，但正在討論該正品牌產品的價格。

路透社週五報導稱，中國正在與輝瑞公司談判以獲得許可，該許可將允許國內製藥商在中國生產和分銷美國公司冠狀病毒抗病毒藥物 Paxlovid 的通用版製藥。

Bourla 在舊金山舉行的摩根大通醫療保健會議上談到該報告時說： “我們沒有進行討論。我們已經就在中國當地生產 Paxlovid 達成了協議。因此我們有一個本地合作夥伴將為我們生產 Paxlovid ，然後我們會把它在中國市場出售。”

輝瑞與聯合國支持的藥品專利池 (Medicines Patent Pool) (MPP) 簽訂了許可協議，允許全球 35 家製藥商生產廉價版 Paxlovid 並在 95 個較貧窮的國家提供治療。

該許可證不允許他們在中國銷售通用版製 Paxlovid，當地自去年 12 月以來感染激增，導致流感和 COVID 藥物嚴重短缺。

根據當地媒體報導和社交媒體帖子，一盒用於單個療程的 Paxlovid 以高達 50,000 元人民幣（7,313 美元）的價格易手，而原價約為 2,000 元人民幣。

Bourla 表示，該公司已在 2022 年向中國運送了數千個療程的療程，並在過去幾週內將數量增加到數百萬個。

週日，中國醫療保障局 (NHSA) 表示，由於美國公司對冠狀病毒 藥物的報價很高，該國不會將 Paxlovid 納入其基本醫療保險計劃涵蓋的更新藥物清單。

根據臨時措施，該藥物目前留在中國廣泛的醫療保險計劃中，直到 3 月底。

Bourla 說，在中國要求的價格低于輝瑞對大多數中低收入國家的收費後，與中國就這種治療的未來定價進行的談判已經中斷。

Bourla說: “他們是世界第二大經濟體，我認為他們支付的費用不應低於薩爾瓦多” 。

談判未能將輝瑞納入國家基本醫療保險涵蓋的藥品清單一事，週一在中國社交媒體上引發了熱烈討論。

有中國媒體報導稱，輝瑞在談判中將Paxlovid的價格下調至600中國元，在社交媒體上引發了一波批評和質疑中國監管機構為何不接受該價格。

財經雜誌《財新》週一的另一篇報導援引未具名消息人士的話稱，輝瑞並未大幅降低其目前向中國醫院收取的 1,890 元的價格。

輝瑞公司拒絕就中國媒體關於其在談判中所報價格的報導發表評論。 NHSA 沒有立即答覆路透社就談判發表評論的請求。

中國官方媒體《環球時報》週一在一篇評論文章中指責輝瑞公司試圖從中國的冠狀病毒 戰中獲利。

它說: “這不是秘密，美國資本力量通過向世界出售疫苗和藥物已經積累了相當多的財富，而且美國政府一直在協調。沒有所謂的人權，只有壟斷”。

“如果他們真的關心（中國的疫情），輝瑞為什麼不放棄一些對利潤的追求，多一點誠意與中國合作呢？”

Bourla 表示，從名單中移除不會對公司在 4 月份之前的業務產生影響，而且公司最終可能只向中國的私人市場銷售產品。

8 月，輝瑞與中國製藥商浙江華海簽署協議，在中國大陸專門為當地病人生產 Paxlovid。

Bourla 表示，中國的生產正在加快步伐，並且取得的進展可能使其能夠在今年上半年開始生產，超過其年底的內部估計。

       So, Pfizer Inc is not in talks with Chinese authorities to license a generic version of its COVID-19 treatment Paxlovid for use there, but is in discussions about a price for the branded product. I am interested in knowing that China’s state media Global Times has accused Pfizer of trying to profit from China's COVID in saying that U.S. capital forces had already accumulated quite a fortune from the world via selling vaccines and drugs, and asked why didn't Pfizer drop some pursuit of the profit. To me, it becomes clear that many educated people still do not understand how the capitalistic world is operating in general and in particular in the US. If the Chinese are so confident about their communist system, they should have the talent and resource to do their medical research and manufacture their own drugs.

美國勞動力市場仍然吃緊； 製造業進一步下滑

Recently Yahoo New on-line reported the following:

U.S. labor market remains tight; manufacturing slumps further

Wed, January 4, 2023 at 11:18 p.m. GMT+8

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. job openings fell less than expected in November as the labor market remains tight, which could see the Federal Reserve boosting interest rates to a higher level than currently anticipated to tame inflation.

There was, however, encouraging news in the inflation fight, with a survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday showing its measure of prices paid by manufacturers for inputs diving in December to the lowest level since February 2016, discounting the plunge early in the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Fed is engaged in its fastest interest rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s as it tries to dampen demand, including for labor, to quell inflation. Last month, the U.S. central bank projected interest rates could rise to a peak of 5.1%. But persistent labor market tightness has led economists to expect that borrowing costs will increase to a much higher level and remain there for a while.

"The labor markets are still too darn hot for policymakers," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York. "Fed officials won't be confident their monetary tightening is working until hiring demand begins to slow."

Job openings, a measure of labor demand, slipped 54,000 to 10.458 million on the last day of November, the Labor Department said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report. Data for October was revised higher to show 10.512 million openings instead of the previously reported 10.334 million. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 10 million job openings.

There were 1.74 jobs for every unemployed person in November. Professional and business services reported an additional 212,000 job openings, while vacancies increased 39,000 in nondurable goods manufacturing.

But job openings dropped 75,000 in finance and insurance, one of the industries hardest hit by higher borrowing costs, and fell 44,000 in federal government.

The job openings rate was unchanged at 6.4%, though it was 0.9 percentage point below its peak in March 2022. Hiring fell to 6.055 million from 6.111 million in October. But hiring increased 74,000 in the healthcare and social assistance sector. The hiring rate dipped to 3.9% from 4.0% in October.

The Fed last year hiked its policy rate by 425 basis points from near zero to a 4.25%-4.50% range, the highest since late 2007. Last month, it projected at least an additional 75 basis points of increases in borrowing costs by the end of 2023.

Minutes of the Fed's Dec. 13-14 policy meeting published on Wednesday showed officials acknowledged "significant progress" over the past year to bring inflation down and thought the central bank now needed to balance its fight against price pressures with the risks of slowing the economy too much and "potentially placing the largest burdens on the most vulnerable groups" through higher-than-necessary unemployment.

Stocks on Wall Street were mostly higher. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices rose.

MORE RESIGNATIONS

The still-tight labor market conditions were reinforced by a 125,000 increase in the number of people resigning from their jobs to 4.173 million in November. That lifted the quits rate, viewed by policymakers and economists as a measure of job market confidence, to 2.7% from 2.6% in the prior month. Higher resignations could keep wage growth elevated and ultimately inflation. Layoffs fell 95,000 to 1.350 million.

"Workers overwhelmingly quit their old jobs to take new ones, which is a critical fuel for wage growth," said Nick Bunker, head of research at Indeed Hiring Lab. "The flipside of workers leaving their old jobs readily is that employers aren't letting go of the workers that remain."

In a separate report, the ISM said its measure of prices paid by manufacturers dropped to 39.4 from 43.0 in November. The ninth straight monthly decrease reflected fading demand for goods, which are typically bought on credit.

Supply chains are improving and Americans are shifting spending away from goods to services as the nation moves to a post-pandemic era. The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index tumbled to 45.2, the lowest since May 2020, from 47.2 in November. It was the fourth straight month this measure has been in contraction territory.

Its measure of supplier deliveries fell to 45.1 from 47.2 in November, remaining below the 50 threshold, which indicates faster deliveries to factories, for a third consecutive month. The month-over-month performance of supplier deliveries was the best since March 2009, according to ISM.

Goods prices are falling on a monthly basis, while the annual increase has slowed considerably. Economists expect goods deflation this year. Services will, however, continue to exert upward pressure on inflation.

With demand slumping, manufacturing contracted for a second straight month in December with ISM's manufacturing PMI dropping to 48.4 from 49.0.

That was the weakest since May 2020 and pushed the index just below 48.7, which the ISM says is consistent with a recession.

But with the labor market still pumping out jobs and sustaining consumer spending, it is unlikely the economy is in recession.

A PMI below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 11.3% of the U.S. economy. The survey's measure of factory employment rebounded to 51.4 from 48.4 in November.

Comments from manufacturers ranged from "huge" skilled labor shortages in the computer and electronic products industry to orders "really" slowing in the transportation equipment sector, and "customers delaying their commitments for capital purchases" in the machinery production industry.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Chizu Nomiyama)

Translation

華盛頓（路透社） - 由於勞動力市場仍然吃緊，美國 11 月職位空缺降幅低於預期，這可能導緻美聯儲將利率提高至高於目前預期的水平，以抑制通脹。

然而，在抗擊通脹方面出現了令人鼓舞的消息，供應管理協會 (ISM) 週三的一項調查顯示，其衡量製造商為投入資源所支付的價格的指標, 在敝除了在 COVID-19 病毒大流行初期的暴跌後, 在12 月份向下跌至 2016 年 2 月以來的最低水平。

美聯儲正在進行自 1980 年代以來最快的加息週期，因為它試圖抑制需求，包括對勞動力的需求，以平息通脹。 上個月，美國央行預計利率可能升至 5.1% 的峰值。 但持續的勞動力市場緊張,導致經濟學家預計借貸成本將上升到更高的水平並維持一段時間。

紐約 FWDBONDS 首席經濟學家Christopher Rupkey說: “勞動力市場對政策制定者來說仍然太熱了”; “在招聘需求開始放緩之前，美聯儲官員不會相信他們的貨幣緊縮政策正在奏效。”

勞工部在其月度職位空缺和勞動力流動調查 (JOLTS) 報告中表示，衡量勞動力需求的職位空缺在 11 月的最後一天下滑 54,000 至 1,045.8 萬。 10 月份的數據被上調至 1,051.2 萬個職位空缺，而不是之前報告的 1,033.4 萬個。 路透社調查的經濟學家此前預測有 1,000 萬個職位空缺。

11 月份每失業人口對應 1.74 個工作崗位。 專業和商業服務報告新增 212,000 個職位空缺，而非耐用品製造業職位空缺增加 39,000 個。

但金融和保險業的職位空缺減少了 75,000 個，這是受借貸成本上升影響最嚴重的行業之一，聯邦政府的職位空缺減少了 44,000 個。

職位空缺率保持在 6.4% 不變，但比 2022 年 3 月的峰值低 0.9 個百分點。招聘人數從 10 月份的 611.1 萬人降至 605.5 萬人。 但醫療保健和社會援助部門的招聘人數增加了 74,000 人。 招聘率從 10 月份的 4.0% 降至 3.9%。

美聯儲去年將政策利率從接近零的水平上調了 425 個基點至 4.25%-4.50% 的區間，為 2007 年底以來的最高水平。上個月，它預計到2023 年年底借貸成本將至少再增加 75 個基點。

週三公佈的美聯儲 12 月 13-14 日政策會議紀要顯示，官員們承認過去一年在降低通脹方面取得了 “重大進展” ，並認為央行現在需要在應對價格壓力與經濟放緩太多的風險之間取得平衡，高於必要的失業率 “可能把最弱勢群體面對最大承擔” 。

華爾街股市大多走高。 美元兌一籃子貨幣下跌。 美國國債價格上漲。

更多辭職

11 月辭去工作的人數增加 125,000 人至 417.3 萬人，加劇了仍然緊張的勞動力市場狀況。 被政策制定者和經濟學家視為衡量就業市場信心的指標的離職率從上個月的 2.6% 升至 2.7%。 更高的辭職率可能會使工資增長保持高位，並最終導致通貨膨脹。 裁員人數減少 9.5 萬人至 135 萬人。

Indeed Hiring Lab 的研究主管 Nick Bunker 表示： “工人們絕大多數都辭掉了他們的舊工作去轉換新工作，這是工資增長的關鍵動力”; “工人很容易離開他們原來的工作崗位的反面是，雇主不會放走留下來的工人。”

在另一份報告中，ISM 稱其衡量製造商支付價格的指標從 11 月份的 43.0 降至 39.4。 連續第九個月下降反映了對商品的需求減弱，這些商品通常是賒購的。

隨著國家進入病毒大流行後時代，供應鏈正在改善，美國人正在將支出從商品轉向服務。 ISM 調查的前瞻性新訂單分項指數從 11 月的 47.2 跌至 45.2，為 2020 年 5 月以來的最低水平。 這是該指標連續第四個月處於收縮區間。

ISM的供應商交付指數在11 月 從47.2 降至 45.1，連續第三個月低於 50 的門檻，這表明工廠交付速度加快。 根據 ISM 的數據，供應商交付的環比表現是 2009 年 3 月以來最好的。

商品價格逐月下降，而年度漲幅大幅放緩。 經濟學家預計今年商品通貨緊縮。 然而，服務業將繼續對通脹施加上行壓力。

隨著需求下滑，製造業在 12 月連續第二個月收縮，ISM 的製造業採購經理人指數從 49.0 降至 48.4。

這是自 2020 年 5 月以來的最低水平，推動該指數略低於 48.7，ISM 稱這與經濟衰退相符。

但由於勞動力市場仍在提供就業機會並維持消費者支出，經濟不太可能陷入衰退。

PMI 低於 50 表示製造業出現收縮, 製造業佔美國經濟的 11.3%。受調查的工廠就業指數從 11 月份的 48.4 反彈至 51.4。

製造商的各類不同評論,計有從算機和電子產品行業的 “嚴重” 熟練勞動力短缺, 到運輸設備行業的訂單 “真正” 放緩，以及機械生產行業的 “客戶延遲購買生產設備” 。

       So, about the present economic condition in the US, comments from manufacturers ranged from "huge" skilled labor shortages in the computer and electronic products industry to orders "really" slowing in the transportation equipment sector, and "customers delaying their commitments for capital purchases" in the machinery production industry. As the US economy is huge, I think what is actually happening is difficult to fully grasp and what will happen next is difficult to accurately predict.