中國將需要世界糧食來滿足本土肉類的野心

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China Will Need World’s Grains to Feed Home-Grown Meat Ambitions

Bloomberg News

Wed, December 22, 2021, 7:52 PM

(Bloomberg) -- China’s reaffirmation of a long-term goal to be almost entirely self-sufficient in pork production means it will keep scooping up global grain supplies to feed the world’s largest pig herd.

The country, which consumes half of the world’s pork, will maintain a target to produce 95% of the protein at home through 2025. It wants to be self sufficient in poultry and egg, 85% for beef and mutton, and 70% for dairy, the agriculture ministry said, adding that they form part of China’s food security goals.

The targets will likely bolster overseas purchases of soybeans and feed grains needed to fatten hogs, cattle and poultry. China is already the top importer of soybeans and corn, and has purchased unprecedented amounts in the past two years to feed a hog herd recovering from African swine fever. The buying binge sparked a global price rally as investors were also worried about supply.

“Imports of feed grain are likely to remain high for the foreseeable future as China begins to prioritize domestic production of meat and dairy,” said Darin Friedrichs, co-founder and market research director of Sitonia Consulting, a China-based agriculture information service provider.

The self-sufficiency goals, which were flagged since 2020 at least, come as the deadly African swine fever outbreak about three years ago destroyed roughly half of China’s hog population and spurred a surge in meat imports and record pork prices. It accelerated a push to modernize hog production and cut costs.

Today the national herd has recovered to a six-year high and is 17% bigger than before the disease struck. Futures in Dalian are down about 50% this year, underscoring the boom-bust cycle China’s pig farming industry is notorious for.

The self-sufficiency targets are part of a series of measures to ensure stable meat supplies and prices. The ministry said China’s consumption of livestock products will continue to grow but there will be gaps in feed grain supply and demand. It also noted that China is “heavily reliant” on imports for soybeans.

Translation

（彭博社）- 中國重申了豬肉生產幾乎完全自給自足的長期目標，這意味著它將繼續獲取全球糧食供應來養活世界上最大的豬群。

這個消耗世界一半豬肉的國家將維持一個目標，即到 2025 年在國內生產 95% 的蛋白質。農業部表示它希望家禽和雞蛋自給自足，牛肉和羊肉85%自給自足，乳製品70%自給自足，並補充說它們構成了中國糧食安全目標的一部分。

這些目標可能會支撐海外購買大豆和飼料穀物，以飼養豬、牛和家禽。中國已經是大豆和玉米的最大進口國，並且在過去兩年中購買了前所未有的數量，以餵養從非洲豬瘟中恢復過來的豬群。由於投資者也擔心供應，購買狂潮引發了全球價格上漲。

中國農業信息服務提供商 Sitonia Consulting 的聯合創始人兼市場研究總監 Darin Friedrichs 表示： “在可預見的未來，隨著中國開始優先考慮國內生產肉類和奶製品，飼料穀物的進口量可能會保持高位。

至少 由2020 年開始，自給自足的目標就出現了，因為大約三年前致命的非洲豬瘟爆發摧毀了中國大約一半的生豬群，刺激了肉類進口激增及創下紀錄的豬肉價格。它加快了生豬生產現代化和削減成本的步伐。

今天，全國畜群已經恢復到六年來的最高水平，比疾病爆發前增加了 17%。今年大連的期貨價格下跌了約 50%，凸顯了中國養豬業臭名昭著的繁榮 - 蕭條週期。

自給自足目標是確保肉類供應和價格穩定的一系列措施的一部分。農業部表示，中國的畜產品消費將繼續增長，但飼料糧供需將出現缺口。它還指出，中國 “嚴重依賴”大豆進口。

       So, China will increase its overseas purchases of soybeans and feed grains needed to fatten hogs, cattle and poultry. The buying spree will probably spark a global price increase and this is good news for agricultural countries such as Canada and the US.