中國須在通貨膨脹或鋼鐵污染之間做出選擇

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

China Must Choose Between Inflation or Pollution from Steel

Bloomberg News

Bloomberg Tue., April 13, 2021, 2:00 p.m.

(Bloomberg) -- China’s vast steel sector is the scene of a conflict between economic growth and a green agenda that points to wider challenges as President Xi Jinping tries to clean up the world’s top carbon emitter.

The government is pushing for steel output to drop from a record of more than 1 billion tons, in a campaign triggered by Xi’s pledge to deliver a carbon neutral economy by 2060. But early moves to squeeze steelmakers have fired up prices and created a headache for policymakers fretting about surging inflation.

The clash of priorities was evident in Premier Li Keqiang’s recent call for stronger controls on commodities markets. His comments followed data that showed producer prices rising in March at the fastest pace since July 2018, a trend that could impede the economy’s recovery.

 Top executives from industrial materials firms, including steelmakers, have been called into government meetings to discuss why prices are rising and how to respond, according to people familiar with the matter. Steel mills have enjoyed a surge in profitability and the biggest, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., has seen its Shanghai-listed shares advance almost 40% this year while the benchmark index has edged lower.

“With steel, they really have no-one they can blame but themselves,” Atilla Widnell, managing director of Navigate Commodities, said by phone from Singapore. Trying to keep production in check alongside stimulus-fueled demand has inevitably meant much higher prices, he said.

Steel coil in China, used in everything from cars to buildings, is the priciest it’s been since 2008. Aluminum, also the subject of carbon policies, has reached decade-highs. Strong demand is playing a big part along with supply cuts, as China’s economic rebound from the pandemic is heavily dependent on commodity-intensive sectors like construction.

 Letting inflation run too hot is a risk to the economy because it ends up sapping demand for products, or provoking the authorities to put restrictions on the monetary and fiscal measures that promote growth.

It’s a global concern that obviously stretches far beyond steel as nations chart their course out of the pandemic, and China doesn’t break down its producer price index by specific sectors. But steelmaking is vital to its economy, employing huge numbers, and the effect on prices of reining in supply shows how governments will have to tread a careful path as they restructure dirty but important industries.

Spewing Carbon

China produces well over half the world’s steel and the sector has long been targeted by the authorities for persistent pollution. But it’s no longer just smokestack smog that’s drawing the government’s attention. The industry is also responsible for about 15% of the carbon that China spews into the atmosphere every year.

“The carbon-neutral initiative will put persistent pressure on producer prices in coming years,” Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management Ltd. in Hong Kong said by email. “The price impact may show up first in the usual suspects such as steel which is carbon intensive, but it’s likely to spread out to more manufactured goods because of the general shift from coal to new energy.”

China has ordered cuts in the key steelmaking hub of Tangshan in the north of the country, and vowed nationwide checks to make sure regions aren’t flouting capacity curbs. Tangshan’s crackdown will likely be repeated around the country amid “vigorous enforcement of China’s supply curtailment policies,” Citigroup Inc.’s Tracy Liao said in an emailed note.

Premier Li’s comments on inflation didn’t offer specific measures to combat higher commodities prices. The government is considering an adjustment to taxes to bring in more overseas steel and plug any domestic shortfall. But that’s complicated by a very strong rebound in the global steel market.

It leaves policymakers with a puzzle that may not have a solution. “How can they cut steel production?” said Navigate’s Widnell. “The answer is I don’t think they can.”

Translation

 （彭博社）- 習近平主席試圖清理全球最大的碳排放國時，中國龐大的鋼鐵行業處於經濟增長與綠色議程之間的衝突場景，綠色議程指向了更大的挑戰。

在習近平承諾中國到2060年會實現碳中性經濟觸發下，中國政府正在推動鋼鐵產量從超10億噸的創紀錄下降。但是，緊縮鋼鐵生產商的早期行動引起了價格上漲，並令決策者為通貨膨脹激增而煩惱。

李克強總理最近呼籲加強對商品市場的控制，這突顯了優先事項的衝突。他發表上述評論之前，有數據顯示3月份生產者價格上漲速度是自2018年7月以來最快的，這一趨勢可能會阻礙經濟的復甦。

知情人士說，包括鋼鐵製造商在內的工業材料公司的高級管理人員曾被召集參加政府會議，討論價格為什麼上漲以及如何應對。鋼鐵廠的盈利大增，其中最大的寶山鋼鐵公司今年在上海上市的股票上漲了近40％，而基準指數則是小幅下跌。

Navigate Commodities的董事總經理Atilla Widnell在新加坡通過電話說： “說到鋼鐵，他們真的沒有人能責怪，只有責怪自己” 。 他又說，試圖抑制生產但同時刺激需求，這必然意味著價格要高得多。

在中國用於汽車，建築等各個領域的鋼捲處於自2008年以來最高價格。鋁, 也是碳政策的話題, 已達到十年來的最高水平。強勁的需求在供應減少的同時也起著很大的作用，因為中國從病毒大流行中恢復過來的經濟, 嚴重依賴商品密集型的領域, 例如建築等。

讓通貨膨脹過熱會給經濟帶來風險，因為它最終會降低對產品的需求，或者促使當局對促進增長的貨幣和財政措施加以限制。

這是全球關注的焦點, 顯然已經遠遠超出了鋼鐵，因為各國已經制定了擺脫病毒大流行的路線，而且中國並未按特定行業細分其生產者價格指數。但是，鋼鐵製造業對中國的經濟至關重要，它擁有大量僱員，而且鑑於抑制供應價格的影響, 表明政府在重組有污染性但重要的行業時, 將必須走謹慎的路。

 

大量排碳

中國的鋼鐵產量佔世界的一半以上，該部門長期以來一直被當局視為處理持續污染行動的目標。但是，引起政府注意的不再只是煙囪煙霧。中國每年向大氣中排放的碳中約有15％是由該行業造成的。

Pinpoint資產管理有限公司在香港的首席經濟學家Zhiwei Zhang在電子郵件中表示： “碳中和舉措將在未來幾年對生產者價格造成持續壓力。” “價格影響可能首先出現在常見的嫌疑犯中，例如要用大量碳的鋼。但由於從煤炭到新能源的普遍轉移，價格影響可能會擴展到更多製成品。”

中國已下令削減該國北部唐山的主要煉鋼樞紐，並誓言要在全國範圍內進行檢查，以確保各地區不會違背產能限制。花旗集團（Citigroup Inc.）的Tracy Liao在一封電子郵件中說，唐山的嚴厲打擊行動可能會在全國範圍內反復進行，因為“中國將嚴格執行供應縮減政策。”

 李總理在關於通貨膨脹的評論, 並沒有提供應對商品價格上漲的具體對應措施。政府正在考慮對稅收進行調整，以引進更多的海外鋼鐵並彌補國內的缺口。但是，隨著全球鋼鐵市場強勁反彈，情況變得更為複雜。

這給決策者帶來了一個可能沒有解決方案的難題。Navigate Commodities的Widnell說,  “他們如何削減鋼鐵產量？”; “答案是我認為他們做不到” 。

              So, how China will deal with its huge steel sector which is the scene of a conflict between economic growth and a green agenda. It will be a challenge to President Xi Jinping as he tries to clean up China’s carbon emission. China’s steel industry will be a good indicator on how determined China is in dealing with the climate change.