數字人民幣為中國提供了一種反擊批評者的新工具 (2 of 2)

Digital Yuan Gives China a New Tool to Strike Back at Critics (2 of 2)

Bloomberg News

Bloomberg Tue., April 20, 2021, 10:02 p.m.

(continue)

Dollar Challenge

Chinese policy makers have also repeatedly emphasized that the digital yuan isn’t meant to challenge the dollar, with People’s Bank of China Deputy Governor Li Bo saying last weekend the motivation for the e-CNY is primarily for domestic use. Former PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan downplayed the risks of the technology to the global financial system at the Boao Forum on Wednesday, saying the digital yuan will be used mainly for small retail payments.

The Chinese currency now makes up about 2% of global foreign exchange reserves compared with nearly 60% for the U.S. dollar, and most of Beijing’s trade and loans in Xi’s Belt-and-Road Initiative are disbursed in dollars.

Any serious challenge to the dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency would also require significant policy changes from China, including lifting capital controls that help the Communist Party keep a lid on sudden outflows that could trigger a financial crisis. Even if the digital yuan could be transacted more cheaply outside of U.S.-controlled global payment systems, it’s unclear if anyone would use it.

“The dollar is not the dominant reserve currency because the Americans say it must be,” said Michael Pettis, finance professor at Peking University and senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing. “The dollar is the dominant reserve currency because the Chinese, the Europeans, the Japanese, the South Koreans etc. say it must be. It’s the rest of the world that imposes that because they think its the safest place to park money.”

The U.S. still has an incentive to set standards for digital currencies. In a survey last year of 65 central banks representing 91% of global economic output, the Bank of International Settlements found more than half were experimenting with digital currencies and 14% were moving forward to pilots. The U.S. itself is taking a cautious approach: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last month policy makers must understand the costs and benefits of a digital dollar, and wouldn’t rush the “very, very large, complex project.”

‘Wake Up Call’

China began research on the digital yuan back in 2014, right after the price of Bitcoin surged from $13.40 to more than $1,000, raising the risk that digital currencies could impact Beijing’s control of monetary policy. It has begun technical testing with Hong Kong for cross-border payments, and is working with Thailand and the United Arab Emirates on real-time foreign exchange settlements. Authorities are also studying how the digital yuan can be combined with 5G networks and the internet of things.

This kind of research allows China a greater say in how other countries across the globe design digital currencies, particularly when it comes to questions of surveillance, privacy and anonymity, according to Josh Lipsky, director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center.

“China is really leading in this area and it should be a wake up call to the U.S. and to Europe,” Lipsky said. “There is a serious first mover advantage not because of what China will do, but what other countries are doing.

Translation

(Continue)

美元挑戰

中國政策制定者還反復強調，數字人民幣並不意味著要挑戰美元。中國人民銀行副行長李波上週末表示，電子人民幣的動機主要是在國內使用。中國人民銀行前行長周小川在周三的博鳌論壇上淡化該技術對全球金融體系的風險，稱數字人民幣將主要用於小額零售支付。

目前，人民幣佔全球外匯儲備的大約2％，而美元則佔近60％，北京在“一帶一路”倡議中的大部分貿易和貸款都以美元支付。

對美元作為世界儲備貨幣地位作出任何嚴峻挑戰，也都需要中國做出重大政策改變，包括取消幫助共產黨控制可能引發金融危機的突然外流的資本管制。即使數字人民幣交易可以在美國控制的全球支付系統之外更便宜地進行，但不清楚是否有人會使用它。

北京大學金融學教授，北京卡內基-清華中心高級研究員Michael Pettis表示：“美元是主要的儲備貨幣，不是因為美國人表示必須這樣做。” “美元成為主要的儲備貨幣，是因為中國，歐洲人，日本人，韓國人等表示必須這樣做。這是被世界其他地方推行的，因為他們認為這是存放錢財的最安全的地方。”

美國仍然有動力為數字貨幣設定標準。在去年向代表91％全球經濟產出的65家中央銀行的調查中，國際清算銀行發現超過一半的銀行正在嘗試使用數字貨幣，而14％的銀行正在進行試點計劃。美國本身正在採取謹慎的態度：美聯儲主席Jerome Powell上個月表示，政策制定者必須了解數字美元的成本和收益，並且不要急於 “非常大，非常複雜的項目” 。

'警鐘響起'

中國早在2014年就開始研究數字人民幣，當時比特幣的價格從13.40美元飆升至1000多美元，這增加了數字貨幣對北京能控制貨幣政策的風險。它已開始在香港進行跨境支付的技術測試，並正在與泰國和阿拉伯聯合酋長國就實時外匯結算進行合作。當局還在研究如何將數字人民幣與5G網絡及物聯網結合起來。

大西洋理事會地理經濟學中心(Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center) 主任Josh Lipsky表示，這種研究使中國在全球其他國家/地區如何設計數字貨幣方面擁有更大的發言權，尤其是在監視，隱私和匿名性方面。

Josh Lipsky說： “中國確實在這一領域處於領先地位，這應該是對美國和歐洲的警號。” “這是具有嚴重的先發優勢, 不是因為中國會做什麼，而是其他國家正在做什麼。

              So, the US dollar is a dominant reserve currency globally because the Chinese, the Europeans, the Japanese, the South Koreans and others are using it and thinking that it is the safest currency to store up money. Beijing has begun technical testing with Hong Kong for cross-border payments, and is working with Thailand and the United Arab Emirates on real-time foreign exchange settlements. These actions suggest that what China’s former PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan  (周小川) has insisted at the Boao Forum (博鳌論壇)in that the digital yuan would be used mainly for small retail payments is hard to believe.