中國一孩政策可能重新評估?

Last month the Mainichi News on-line reported the following:

毎日新聞　2012年11月28日　20時47分（最終更新　11月29日　01時18分）

　２８日付の中国の英字紙「チャイナ・デーリー」は、中国政府が「一人っ子政策」を緩和する可能性があると報じた。都市部の夫婦に第２子の出産を認めることを軸に調整しているという。中国は１９７９年に始めた一人っ子政策の影響で、急速な高齢化や生産年齢人口の減少に直面。これまでも見直しを求める声が上がっており、今月発足した習近平指導部が今後、政策見直しに踏み切るかどうかが注目されそうだ。

　中国人民政治協商会議（政協）人口資源環境委員会の張維慶（ちょういけい）主任が同紙に語った。中国では現在、両親がいずれも一人っ子だった場合などは第２子の出産が認められている。同紙によると、両親が一人っ子でなくても第２子の出産を認めるよう検討しているという。張主任は「政策変更は地域間の違いを考慮し、段階的に行われるべきだ」と話し、高齢化の進展などで人口構成の急激な変化に直面している都市部で先行実施されるとの見通しを示した。

　中国の合計特殊出生率は１．７で、人口維持の適正水準とされる２．１を下回っている。張主任は「理想的な水準は１．８程度」と指摘。「緩和しても急激な人口増は起きないだろう」としている。

　中国では、２５年に６０歳以上の人口が３億人を突破すると予想されている。一方で、生産年齢人口（１５〜６４歳）は１５年をピークに減少に転じるとみられており、豊かになる前に高齢化が進む懸念が高まっている。

　今月開かれた第１８回党大会の政治報告では、「低出生レベルの維持」という文言が消え、「人口の長期にわたるバランスのとれた発展を促す」という表現が盛り込まれた。そのため、習近平指導部が政策見直しに動くとの観測も出ている。

(試譯文)

The English paper "China Daily" of China dated 28th reported that the Chinese government might ease the "one-child policy." It was said that the government was adjusting the theme by permitting the husband and wife of urban areas to have the 2nd child's delivery. Due to the influence of the one-child policy begun in 1979, China faced rapid aging and decreases in productive population. Up to now the voice which asked for the reexamination had been coming out, and whether the group led by Xi Jinping inaugurated this month would decide on starting a policy reexamination was likely to attract attention.

Zhang Weiqing, head of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (PCC) population resource Standing Committee on Environment told the paper. In China, when the individual parent was the only child, the 2nd child's delivery was accepted now. The paper said that it was inquiring whether a 2nd child's delivery could be accepted, even if one of the parents was not the only child. Manager Cho said "A policy change should be gradually performed in consideration of the difference between areas", and he showed the prospect that early implementation should carried out in the urban areas currently facing a rapid change in population composition due to gradual aging etc.

The Chinese total fertility rate was 1.7 and was less than 2.1 being the optimum levels needed for population maintenance. Manager Cho indicated that "an ideal level is about 1.8." It was supposed that "rapid population increase will not occur, even if it is eased".

In China, it was expected that population aged 60 and over would break through 300 million people in 2025. On the other hand, it was expected that the productive population (15-64 years old) would start to decrease after the peak at 2015; and before regaining the productivity, concerns were increasing on what could come along with aging.

In the political report of the 18th convention of the party this month, the wording "maintenance of a low birth level" disappeared and the expression of "urging the development which maintains a balance of population over a long period of time" was incorporated. Therefore, the observation that the Xi Jinping's guiding group might move towards a policy reexamination had also been pointed out.

Such a population policy change could have far-reaching implications on the Chinese society.