World Meteorological Organization - 66% chance of exceeding 1.5°C within 5 years

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

５年以内に上昇幅「１．５度」超える可能性は６６％　世界気象機関

2023.05.18 Thu posted at 17:30 JST

 （ＣＮＮ） 世界気象機関（ＷＭＯ）は年次報告書で、今後５年間のうち少なくとも１年間で世界の気温が産業革命前の水準より１．５度以上高くなる可能性は６６％に上ると明らかにした。温室効果ガスに加え、近く発生が予想されるエルニーニョ現象が影響するという。

世界が石炭や石油、ガスのような地球温暖化をもたらす化石燃料の燃焼を続けるなか、世界気温は近年上昇しており、その傾向が減速する兆しは見えない。

気温上昇に伴い、今後５年間のうち少なくとも１年間の気温が過去最高になる可能性は９８％、５年間全体の気温が過去最高になる可能性も９８％に上るという。

１．５度の突破は一時的な現象にとどまる可能性があるとＷＭＯは指摘するが、気候変動がいかに急速に加速しているかを示す最も明白な兆候といえそうだ。

世界各国はパリ合意で、世界の温暖化を産業革命前に比べ２度より十分低い水準、できれば１．５度以下に抑えると約束した。気温上昇が１．５度を超えると極端な洪水や干ばつ、山火事、食料不足に陥る可能性が大幅に増えるため、科学者らは１．５度を重要な転換点と見なしている。

気温上昇に拍車をかける要因としては、化石燃料の燃焼による温室効果ガスの増加に加え、予想されるエルニーニョ現象の到来が挙げられる。エルニーニョ現象は自然現象で、地球温暖化効果がある。

現時点で記録に残る最も暑い年は２０１６年。その前に非常に強力なエルニーニョ現象が発生していた。エルニーニョ現象が発生した翌年は気温が上がる傾向にあることから、２４年は記録上最も暑い年になる可能性がある。

人類による化石燃料の燃焼や温室効果ガスの排出が続くなか、世界気温はすでに約１．２度上昇した。ここ３年間はラニーニャ現象の影響で比較的寒冷だったが、気温上昇は危険水準に達している。

Translation

(CNN) The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in its annual report made clear that there would be a 66% chance that global temperatures could be 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in at least one of the next five years. In addition to greenhouse gases, it was said that the El Niño phenomenon, which was expected to occur soon, could have an impact.

The world continued to burn fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas that brought about global warming, and in recent years global temperature had increased and the trend showed no signs of slowing down.

As temperatures rose, there was a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years could be the hottest year on record, and a 98% chance that all these five years as a whole could be the hottest ever.

WMO said that while the breakthrough of 1.5 degrees Celsius could come as a temporary phenomenon, it was the most obvious sign in showing how likely climate change was accelerating rapidly.

In the Paris Agreement, countries had committed to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius pre-industrial levels, preferably below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Scientists perceived 1.5 degrees Celsius as a critical tipping point, as the likelihood of extreme floods, droughts, wildfires and food shortages could increase significantly above 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Factors spurring temperature rise would include increasing greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels, as well as the expected arrival of El Niño. The El Niño phenomenon was a natural phenomenon and had an effect on global warming.

At this moment, 2016 was the hottest year on record. Prior to that, a very strong El Niño event had occurred. 2024 could be the hottest year on record, as temperatures tended to rise in the year following an El Niño event.

Global temperatures had already risen by about 1.2 degrees Celsius as humans continued to burn fossil fuels and emit greenhouse gases. The past three years had been relatively cold due to the effects of La Niña, but temperature was rising to dangerous levels.

              So, the WMO suggests that there is a 66% chance that global temperatures will be at least 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in at least one of the coming five years. Also, El Niño event may have an impact on global temperature. Let us wait and see how these predictions will play out.