三十年後日本人口下跌兩成

Last month the Mainichi News on-line reported the following:

推計人口:２０４０年に全都道府県で減　１０年の８割に

毎日新聞　2013年03月27日　20時06分

　３０年後の２０４０年には全都道府県で今の人口（１０年国勢調査）を下回ることが、国立社会保障・人口問題研究所が２７日公表した「地域別将来推計人口」で分かった。０５年の国勢調査に基づいた前回調査では東京都と沖縄県だけは３０年後も増加する見込みだった。全都道府県で減少する見通しが示されたのは初めて。また市区町村別でみると、人口が４割以上減る自治体が３８５と全体の２２．９％に及ぶ。

　１０年国勢調査をもとに推計した。０５年から１０年にかけては３８道府県で総人口が減少したが、推計によると１５年から２０年の間に沖縄県を除く４６都道府県で減り、それ以降は全都道府県で減少に転じる。

　１０年の全国の総人口（１億２８０５万７０００人）を１００とした場合、４０年（１億７２７万６０００人）は８３．８。減少が最も緩やかなのは沖縄（９８．３）で、最も激しいのは秋田（６４．４）。東日本大震災の被災３県は、福島（７３．２）、岩手（７０．５）、宮城（８４．０）といずれも落ち込む。

　市区町村別では、全体（福島県内を除く１６８３自治体）の９５．２％にあたる１６０３自治体で人口が減少する。１１７０自治体（６９．５％）では２割以上減る見込みだ。一方で、６５歳以上が４割以上を占める自治体は８７（５．２％）から、８３６（４９．７％）と半数近くになる。【佐藤丈一】

(試譯文)

   It was understood that in 30 years from now in 2040, based on the "Population Projections According to Area" done by the National Institute of Population’s Social Security Research Office that was released on the 27^th, the present population (2010 national census) in all the prefectures would go down. Based on the previous census done in 2005, after 30 years only Tokyo and Okinawa could expect a population increase. This was the first time that the prospect of a decrease in all the prefectures was shown. Moreover, if to look at it according to cities, wards, towns, and villages, 385 self-governing bodies could have a population decreases over 40 percent, while as a whole it would reach 22.9%.

   It was an estimate based on the national census of 2010. From 2005 to 2010, while the overall population had decreased in 38 districts, counties or prefectures, according to the estimate, from 2015 to 2020 there would be a decrease in all the 46 prefectures except for the Okinawa Prefecture. Afterwards all prefectures would gear towards a decreasing trend.

   If the total population (128,057,000 people) of the whole country in 2010 was set at 100, in 2040 it would be 83.8 (107,276,000 people). The reduction in Okinawa (98.3) would be the slowest while the most intense one would be in Akita (64.4). All the 3 prefectures that were stricken by the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster would fall: Fukushima (73.2), Iwate (70.5), and Miyagi (84.0).

   In cities, towns, and villages, 1603 self-governing bodies that was an equivalent to 95.2% of the total (1683 self-governing bodies except for the Fukushima prefecture), the population would decrease.1170 self-governing bodies (69.5%) would likely have a decrease of twenty percent or more. On the other hand regarding the self-governing body where 40 percent or more of its people were aged 65 or over, the body number would change from about 87 (5.2%) to 836 (49.7%), nearing half of the total.

Obviously, the population in Japan is aging quickly.

日本長壽健康大國地位可能退色

Last month the Mainichi News on-line reported the following:

「健康で長生き」の脅威:日本人は「腰痛」トップ　

毎日新聞　2013年03月27日　19時56分（最終更新　03月27日　20時07分）

　日本人にとって「健康で長生き」の脅威となる病気や障害のトップは腰痛との分析結果を、米ワシントン大、東京大などの研究チームがまとめ、英医学誌ランセット（電子版）に発表した。自殺も上位に入っている。チームは「世界一長寿の日本人の健康が揺らぎ始めている。長く生きても病気などに苦しむ期間が延びていることを示している」と説明する。

　日本の分析は、厚生労働省の人口動態調査などを基にした。平均寿命より早く死亡することで失った年数、障害を抱えて生きる年数を考慮し、病気などが健康に与える負担の程度を分析した。この手法は、死に直結しないが日常生活に支障をきたし、健康寿命を縮める病気や障害を明らかにできる。

　その結果、２０１０年で最も負担度が重かったのは「腰痛」で、脳卒中、虚血性心疾患（心筋梗塞（こうそく）など）、肺炎、関節症などの筋骨格系障害、肺がん、自殺−−と続く。１９９０年の分析ではトップ３は脳卒中、腰痛、虚血性心疾患の順だった。また、自殺は若年層（１５〜４９歳）の死因の２７％を占め、９０年の１６．５％から急伸、世界でも飛び抜けて高かった。

　さらに、こうした脅威の背景にある最も重要な要因として「食生活」を指摘した。和食は低カロリーだが塩分が強く、果物やナッツ類が不足するなど栄養素の偏りが問題だという。２位以下は高血圧、喫煙（副流煙を含む）、運動不足、肥満だった。

　チームによると、２０１０年の日本人の平均寿命は８２．６歳だが、健康寿命は７３．１歳（男女平均）。分析にあたった渋谷健司・東京大教授（国際保健政策学）は「政府は国民の健康課題に効果的に取り組んでいるように見えない。食事の改善、禁煙、腰痛対策など高齢化に伴う問題とともに、自殺予防に向けた精神疾患対策などを進めなければ、健康長寿世界一の座を維持できないだろう」と話す。

(試譯文)

   The summarized analysis result done by the U.S. University of Washington and the University of Tokyo research team that was released it to the English medicine magazine Lancet (electronic edition) had shown that lumbago was the top illness and obstacle that posed a threat to the Japanese towards "to be healthy and long living". Suicide was also included in the rankings at the top. The team said that "the health of the Japanese as the world’s number one long life people is beginning to shake. It is shown that even if people could live longer, the period which they suffer from illness etc. is prolonged".

   Japan's analysis was conducted based on the population census of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare etc. Health was analyzed in consideration of the years cut short due to death that was earlier than the life expectancy, and the years which there was obstacle in health, together with the degree of the burden of the illness etc on health. Although this technique did not link directly to death, it could clarify how the illness and the obstacle interfered with everyday life, and cut short the healthy life expectancy.

   The result showed that in 2010 "lumbago" had the heaviest level of burden; it was followed by stroke, ischemic heart disease (myocardial infarction etc.), pneumonia, musculoskeletal disorder such as osteoarthritis, lung cancer, and suicide. In the analysis in 1990, the top 3 in ranking order were stroke, lumbago, and ischemic heart disease. Moreover, suicide occupied 27% of the cause of death for the young age group (15-49 years old), being a sharp increase from 16.5% in 1990, and was also a rapid increase in the world.

   Furthermore, "eating habit" was pointed out as the most important factor that served as a backdrop to such a threat. It was said that the Japanese-style food had low calorie and high salt content, and it ran short of fruit and nuts, and it had the problem of biased nutrients. The 2nd and further down places were high blood pressure, smoking (second-hand smoke was included), lack of exercise, and overweight.

   According to the team, in 2010 the life expectancy of the Japanese was 82.6 years old while the healthy life expectancy was 73.1 years old (man-and-woman average). Kenji Shibuya the professor of the University of Tokyo (International Health Political Science) who was the in charge of the analysis said that "the government does not seem to tackle the national healthy subject effectively. If the measures against the problems that accompany aging, such as improvements in the meal, prohibition of smoking, and the measures against lumbago, and together with no further advancement in the psychiatric disorder policy etc. that aims at the prevention suicide, then the seat of the world's No.1 in healthy long-life probably could not be maintained."

It seems that changes in life style among the Japanese have reduced the healthy long life expectancy of the people.

日韓関係因為竹島主權問題轉差

Yesterday the Yomiuri News on-line reported the following:

両国関係「悪い」、日本７１％…日韓共同調査

読売新聞社と韓国日報社は３月２２～２４日、日韓両国での新政権発足を受けて共同世論調査（電話方式）を実施した。

　昨年８月、韓国の李明博(イミョンバク)大統領（当時）が島根県の竹島を訪問したことなどで日本側の韓国に対する評価や感情が急速に悪化し、現在の日韓関係が「悪い」とする回答は７１％と、前回２０１１年の２７％から急増。１９９５年以降計９回の調査で最高となった。韓国でも、「悪い」と思う人が７８％（前回６４％）に上り、国民意識の面でも、関係悪化が鮮明になった。

　互いの国を「信頼できない」という回答も、日本で過去最高の５５％（同３７％）を記録し、韓国でも８０％（同７７％）に上昇した。

　李氏の竹島訪問については、日本で「適切でなかった」が８６％を占めたが、韓国では対照的に「適切だった」が６７％に上った。日韓関係をより良くするために優先して解決すべき問題（複数回答）でも、「竹島をめぐる問題」が日本で６８％、韓国で７２％に上り、ともにトップを占めた。

（2013年4月5日22時10分 読売新聞）

 

(試譯文)

The Yomiuri Shimbun and the Hankook Inc. carried out a join opinion poll (by telephone) from March 22nd to 24th in response to the new government's inauguration in Japan and in South Korea.

   The evaluation on the feeling in Japan over South Korea had gotten worse quickly because South Korean President Lee Myung-bak (Lee Myung-bak) (at that time) visited Takeshima of the Shimane Prefecture in August last year. Regarding the reply on the current  Japan-Korea relation, 71% said it was "worse", being a rapid increase from 27% of last time in 2011. It became the highest among the total nine investigations held since 1995. Even in South Korea, those who thought it was "bad" went up to 78% (from 64% last time), and in respect of the national consciousness it became clear that the relationship had also deteriorated.

   Regarding the mutual trust between the two countries, the reply "not reliable" was the highest ever recorded in Japan: at 55% (previously 37%); in South Korea it even went up to 80% (previously 77%).

   About Mr. Lee's visit to Takeshima, in Japan 86% thought "it was not appropriate"; yet in South Korea in contrast those thought "it was appropriate" went up to 67%. As for what problems (multiple answers) should be given the priority to deal with in order to improve the Japan-Korea relations, "the problem involving Takeshima" went up to 68% in Japan while it went up to 72% in South Korea. This problem occupied the top position in both countries.

It seems that Takeshima is a sensitive topic between Japan and South Korea.

日本「零式」戦機後継戦機「烈風改」設計圖曝光

Yesterday the FNN on-line reported the following:

「零戦」後継機として計画されていた「幻の戦闘機」の設計図発見

太平洋戦争の末期に、「零戦」の後継機として計画されていた「幻の戦闘機」の設計図が、群馬・藤岡市の博物館で見つかった。
藤岡市の藤岡歴史館で見つかったのは、太平洋戦争末期の1944年ごろに、「艦上戦闘機」、いわゆる「零戦」の後継機として計画されていた戦闘機「烈風改」の設計図17枚。
烈風改は、試作機さえも作られないまま終戦を迎えてしまったため、「幻の戦闘機」とも呼ばれている。
藤岡市教育委員会文化財保護課・軽部達也係長は「個人のお宅でこれだけの枚数の(烈風改の)図面が残されているということは、初めてのことだと思います」と話した。
設計図は、烈風改のほかにも、零戦などの設計も手がけた地元出身の航空技術者・堀越二郎さんの遺品から見つかった。
烈風改は、アメリカ軍のB29爆撃機に対抗するために、飛行高度1万メートルを想定して設計された。
設計図からは、機種名が記載されている部分が破り取られているが、これは、戦闘機などの資料の廃棄を命じていたGHQ(連合国軍総司令部)の監視から逃れるためだったと考えられている。
この設計図は、7月の企画展で一般に公開される予定だという。

(試譯文)

The design maps of the "phantom fighter plane" intended to be the succeeding machine of the "Zero" fighter plane in the last stage of the Pacific War was found in the museum in Fujioka, Gumma.

What were found at the Fujioka history hall in Fujioka were 17 designs of the fighter plane "Reppuukai" intended as the machine succeeding the "Zero" fighter plane which was also called "Type Zero fighter on board a battleship", starting around 1944 being the last stage of the Pacific War.

Because the Reppuukai came at the end of the war, even an experimental model had not been built at that time, it was thus called "the phantom fighter".

Tatsuya Karube, the chief official of the Fujioka Municipal Board of Education’s Preservation of Cultural Properties Division said that "I think it is the first time that several copies of the drawing (of the Retsubuukai) are found being left behind in individual’s private home".

The design of the Reppuukai was found together with other personal effects left behind by the deceased aviation engineer Mr. Jiro Horikoshi, a local graduate who had dealt with the design of the zero planes etc.

The Reppuukai was designed to have a flight level 10,000 meters in order to challenge the B29 bomber of the U.S. Forces.

Although the portion that indicated the model name was broken from the design maps, it was thought that this was for the purpose of escaping from the surveillance of the GHQ (Allied forces General Headquarters) which had ordered the abandonment of the data about this fighter plane.

It was said that the design maps were scheduled to be exhibited to the general public in July.

I think the drawings are valuable documents to study the Japanese history during WWII.

上海批發市場發現Ｈ７Ｎ９型病毒

Yesterday the Yomiuri news on-line reported the following:   上海の卸売市場のハトからＨ７Ｎ９型ウイルス 　【北京＝竹内誠一郎】中国農業省は４日、上海市内の卸売市場で採取したハトのサンプルからＨ７Ｎ９型のウイルスを検出したと発表した。 　中国から同型の感染者が初めて確認された３月３１日以降、動物から同型ウイルスが検出されるのは初めてとみられる。 　農業省によると、ウイルスの遺伝子を分析した結果、感染者から採取したウイルスと由来がほぼ一致したという。同省は当面、同型ウイルスに対し、口蹄疫(こうていえき)などと同様に強制措置を伴う対応を適用することを決定、上海市内の市場に疫病予防措置を取るよう指示した。 （2013年4月4日22時45分 読売新聞）   (試譯文)

China’s Department of Agriculture announced on the 4th that it detected the H7N9 type virus from the sample of a pigeon taken in the wholesale market in Shanghai.

Since March 31 when the type of virus that affected people was confirmed in China, it was for the first time that the same type of virus was detected in an animal.

The Department of Agriculture said that the result of analyzing the gene of the virus showed that it was mostly in agreement with the origin of the virus which was extracted from the infected person. The ministry for the time being, facing the same type of virus, determined to take enforcement measures correspond to dealing with such as the foot and mouth disease etc. and gave directives to take epidemic preventive measures in the markets in Shanghai.

It seems that the market in Shanghai may be a source of the virus.

在中国有120萬人死於大気汚染

Yesterday the Mainichi News on-line reported the following:

中国:大気汚染で１２０万人死亡　１０年、死者の１５％

毎日新聞　2013年04月03日　21時16分

　【北京・工藤哲】中国で、２０１０年に大気汚染が原因と疑われる症状で早死にした人が１２０万人を超え、この年の死者数の約１５％に上ったとの調査結果を、清華大（北京市）などが発表した。今年は天候の影響で当時より汚染が悪化、国民の健康被害の一層の拡大が懸念されている。

　２日付の経済紙「２１世紀経済報道」が報じた。それによると、３月３１日に清華大で開かれた研究会で、清華大と、米国の医療研究所との合同調査の結果として発表された。

　呼吸器や循環器の疾患を引き起こす微小粒子状物質「ＰＭ２．５」が関連すると疑われる症状による１０年の死者は▽脳血管疾患が約６０万人▽肺疾患が約２０万人▽虚血性心疾患が約２８万人▽呼吸器感染が約１万人▽気管や肺などのがんが約１４万人−−に達し、合計１２３万４０００人に上った。大気汚染は中国で食中毒や高血圧、喫煙などと並ぶ健康上のリスクと位置づけられるという。

　一方、３日付の北京紙「京華時報」によると、中国気象局のまとめで、今年３月に中国全土をスモッグが覆った日が３．３日で、平年より１．１日多く、過去５２年間の同期比で最も多かった。また北京市環境保護局によると、ＰＭ２．５より大きな粒子「ＰＭ１０」が市内で１月は前年同期の平均値より約５割多く、１〜３月も前年同期の平均値より３割増えていた。湿度や風速が過去１０年で最も小さかったことが大気汚染の悪化を引き起こしたという。

(試譯文)

In China the people who died young due to symptoms suspected to be related to the air pollution had exceed 1,200,000 in 2010; the Qinghua University (Beijing) with others released the results of an investigation which showed that this figure was more than 15% of the total death toll of that year. This year, due to the influence of the weather, the contamination had worsened. There was anxiety about an increase in the impairment of people’s health.

The financial newspaper "The 21st century economy report" dated the second of April reported this. According to it, the result was announced on March 31 by a study group held in Qinghua University as a result of a joint survey of the Qinghua University and a medical institute in the U.S.

In ten years the people killed with the symptoms suspected to be related to the minute particulate matter "PM2.5" which could cause diseases in the respiratory organs and the circulatory organ were -- cerebrovascular disease about 600,000 people ▽ lung disease about 200,000 people ▽ ischemic heart disease about 280,000 people ▽ respiratory infection about 10,000 people ▽ tracheal gill and lung cancer caused about 140,000 people; in total it went up to 1,234,000 people. It was said that in China air pollution was regarded as a health risk ranked among food poisoning, high blood pressure, smoking, etc...

On the other hand, according to the Beijing paper “Jinghua Times" dated the 3rd, the China Meteorological Administration concluded that in March this year there were 3.3 days which the whole country of China was covered by smog, being 1.1 days more than in a normal year, and it was the highest for the same period in the past 52 years. Moreover, according to the Beijing Environmental Protection Agency, in the city in January the "PM10", which had particles bigger than PM2.5, was about 50 percent more than the average value of the corresponding period last year, and there was a 30 percent increase compared to the average value of the corresponding period of last year between January and March. It was said that humidity and wind velocity were the lowest in the past ten years and thus aggravated the air pollution.

I think the air pollution situation could be improved if China has the determination to improve it.

日中漫画展在南京舉行

Last week the NHK news on-line reported the following:

反日感情で延期の日中漫画展開催 南京
3月24日 20時52分

沖縄県の尖閣諸島の国有化をきっかけに、日中関係が悪化したことで延期されていた日本と中国の漫画家の作品を集めた展示会が、２４日から中国の南京で始まりました。

この展示会は、中国東部の江蘇省と友好提携を結んでいる愛知県などが開きました。江蘇省の中心都市、南京の会場には、日本と中国合わせて５０人余りの漫画家が、地球の未来の姿をテーマに描いた作品が展示されています。
もともとは、日中国交正常化４０周年の記念行事として、去年９月に開かれる予定でしたが、尖閣諸島の国有化をきっかけに、日中関係が悪化したため、開催が延期されていました。
開幕式で愛知県の大村知事は「日中の間には、さまざまな課題があるが、それを乗り越えて、お互いに利益になるような関係をつくりたい」とあいさつしました。そして、大村知事が大きな紙に、「中日友好」と筆で書いたあと、日本人の漫画家が、日本と中国の国旗を持った子どもとパンダが、楽しそうに笑っている様子をその場で描き、中国側に贈りました。
会場には、大勢の家族連れや学生などが訪れ作品を見て感想を話し合ったり、写真を撮ったりしていました。
中国の大学生の女性は「中国と日本が友好関係にあることが、結局は、どちらにとっても利益となるのですから、友好を築くよう、双方が努力すべきだと思います」と話していました。

(試譯文)

An exhibition which collected the works of the cartoonists from Japan and China, that had been postponed because of the worsen Japan-China relations due to the nationalization of the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture, was held on the 24th (March) in Nanjing in China.

This show was held by the Aichi Prefecture which was, on friendship ties, connected to the Jiangsu province in eastern China. With regard to the participating cartoonists from Japan and China, in total a little over 50 of them had gathered at a hall in Nanjing which was the central city of Jiangsu. All the works exhibited had a theme centered on the outlook of our earth in future.

At the beginning it was scheduled to be opened in September last year as a memorial event of the 40th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic ties between Japan and China, but because of the Japan-China relations got worsen due to the nationalization of the Senkaku Islands, its opening was postponed.

At the opening ceremony greetings Governor Omura of Aichi Prefecture said that "Although various subjects had occurred between Japan and China, I would like to overcome them and to build a relation that would generate mutual benefits". After that Governor Omura, using a brush, wrote "China-Japan friendship" on a big paper, then a Japanese cartoonist presented to the China side a drawing depicting a child and a panda holding the national flags of Japan and China and laughing happily.

In the hall, many students came to visit and families came as a group. The works were seen, comments were discussed and photographs were taken.

A Chinese college female student was saying that "because to have a good relationship between China and Japan would benefit both parties after all. We should build friendship and I think both sides should try hard".

It seems that the worst moment for Sino-Japanese relationship is over. Probably some behind-the-scene negotiations might have been carried out.