三十年後日本人口下跌兩成

Last month the Mainichi News on-line reported the following:

推計人口:２０４０年に全都道府県で減　１０年の８割に

毎日新聞　2013年03月27日　20時06分

　３０年後の２０４０年には全都道府県で今の人口（１０年国勢調査）を下回ることが、国立社会保障・人口問題研究所が２７日公表した「地域別将来推計人口」で分かった。０５年の国勢調査に基づいた前回調査では東京都と沖縄県だけは３０年後も増加する見込みだった。全都道府県で減少する見通しが示されたのは初めて。また市区町村別でみると、人口が４割以上減る自治体が３８５と全体の２２．９％に及ぶ。

　１０年国勢調査をもとに推計した。０５年から１０年にかけては３８道府県で総人口が減少したが、推計によると１５年から２０年の間に沖縄県を除く４６都道府県で減り、それ以降は全都道府県で減少に転じる。

　１０年の全国の総人口（１億２８０５万７０００人）を１００とした場合、４０年（１億７２７万６０００人）は８３．８。減少が最も緩やかなのは沖縄（９８．３）で、最も激しいのは秋田（６４．４）。東日本大震災の被災３県は、福島（７３．２）、岩手（７０．５）、宮城（８４．０）といずれも落ち込む。

　市区町村別では、全体（福島県内を除く１６８３自治体）の９５．２％にあたる１６０３自治体で人口が減少する。１１７０自治体（６９．５％）では２割以上減る見込みだ。一方で、６５歳以上が４割以上を占める自治体は８７（５．２％）から、８３６（４９．７％）と半数近くになる。【佐藤丈一】

(試譯文)

   It was understood that in 30 years from now in 2040, based on the "Population Projections According to Area" done by the National Institute of Population’s Social Security Research Office that was released on the 27^th, the present population (2010 national census) in all the prefectures would go down. Based on the previous census done in 2005, after 30 years only Tokyo and Okinawa could expect a population increase. This was the first time that the prospect of a decrease in all the prefectures was shown. Moreover, if to look at it according to cities, wards, towns, and villages, 385 self-governing bodies could have a population decreases over 40 percent, while as a whole it would reach 22.9%.

   It was an estimate based on the national census of 2010. From 2005 to 2010, while the overall population had decreased in 38 districts, counties or prefectures, according to the estimate, from 2015 to 2020 there would be a decrease in all the 46 prefectures except for the Okinawa Prefecture. Afterwards all prefectures would gear towards a decreasing trend.

   If the total population (128,057,000 people) of the whole country in 2010 was set at 100, in 2040 it would be 83.8 (107,276,000 people). The reduction in Okinawa (98.3) would be the slowest while the most intense one would be in Akita (64.4). All the 3 prefectures that were stricken by the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster would fall: Fukushima (73.2), Iwate (70.5), and Miyagi (84.0).

   In cities, towns, and villages, 1603 self-governing bodies that was an equivalent to 95.2% of the total (1683 self-governing bodies except for the Fukushima prefecture), the population would decrease.1170 self-governing bodies (69.5%) would likely have a decrease of twenty percent or more. On the other hand regarding the self-governing body where 40 percent or more of its people were aged 65 or over, the body number would change from about 87 (5.2%) to 836 (49.7%), nearing half of the total.

Obviously, the population in Japan is aging quickly.