中國經濟成長創多年來新低（2/2）

Recently The New York Times reported the following:

 China’s Economy Grows at Slowest Pace in Years (2/2)

Economic growth of 4.3 percent in the second quarter, versus the same period last year, reflected a broad slump outside of the country’s export-oriented manufacturing might.

The NYT -By Alexandra Stevenson and Murphy Zhao - Reporting from Hong Kong

July 15, 2026

Updated 2:38 a.m. ET

(continue)

For China’s leadership, the question now is, what to do next? Li Qiang, China’s premier, told a group of entrepreneurs this week that officials were focusing on new drivers of consumption and ensuring job stabilization.

“It is important to take a comprehensive and objective view of the current economic situation, fully recognizing the achievements made while remaining cleareyed about the problems,” said Mr. Li, according to state media, which ran a story about the meeting on the front page of the official People’s Daily.

Some economists anticipate a discussion of fresh stimulus measures at a meeting of top policymakers later this month. On Monday, officials announced a plan to target $8.85 trillion of annual retail sales by 2030, implying a 20 percent rise from last year.

Beijing also promised to raise wages and increase household consumption as a share of the economy. It is currently around 40 percent, significantly lower than the 60 percent share of gross domestic product for most developed countries.

But analysts said these goals are not particularly ambitious. And stubbornly reluctant consumers in China show few signs of opening their wallets further.

On social media forums, shoppers share tips on how to scrimp and save, rallying around the motto to “save where you can, spend where you must.”

Users share tips about “shopping cart cooling-off periods,” or leaving nonessential items in carts for three days before deciding to buy them. (The practice is a wry nod to the officially enforced “cooling-off period” for couples seeking divorces.)

Others push to replace foreign cosmetic brands with cheaper local alternatives, and to substitute skin care products with baby lotion. “Buy what’s right, not what’s pricey,” a user on the social media network Weibo posted recently.

All the while, sales have continued to fall for products as varied as cosmetics and automobiles. For categories like cars, the recent plunge has been accentuated by the end of a policy to incentivize purchases.

Since a devastating property crash, Chinese policymakers have tried to replace the growth generated by the real estate sector with more robust consumer spending. They rolled out huge subsidies for households to trade in old cars, home appliances and phones from 2024 through last year.

While it generated some activity, the policy failed to address the plummeting value of property, where most household wealth is concentrated. Now, economists say, China is in a “payback period” following the jump in policy-induced sales.

As the economy splits between the relatively few who benefit from China’s role in the global A.I. boom and the rest, the divide is having a profound impact on the country’s social fabric.

China’s property bust has led to more than 14 million people losing construction jobs. Many of those workers bought apartments in smaller cities, far from the pockets of A.I.-generated wealth that may revive parts of the property market.

The A.I. boom “doesn’t benefit ordinary people in China because this priority, the industrial focus on high tech and semiconductors, actually causes structural unemployment and underemployment,” said Dan Wang, the China director at Eurasia Group, a consulting firm.

What’s more, Ms. Wang said, disposable income growth is now lower than economic growth. If that continues, she noted, “that means the national income is skewed in distribution toward government and companies, and not consumers.”

Translation

中國經濟成長創多年來新低（2/2）

第二季經濟成長4.3%，與去年同期相比，反映出除出口導向製造業之外，中國經濟普遍下滑

（繼續）

對中國領導階層而言，現在的問題是：下一步該怎麼辦？中國總理李強本週對一群企業家表示，官員正著力尋找新的消費動力，並確保就業穩定。

根據官方媒體報道，李強總理表示：「重要的是要全面客觀地看待當前的經濟形勢，充分肯定已取得的成就，同時也要清醒地認識到存在的問題。」《人民日報》頭版刊登了關於此次會議的報道。

一些經濟學家預計，本月晚些時候，高層決策者將召開會議，討論新的刺激措施。週一，官員們宣佈了一項計劃，目標是到2030年實現8.85兆美元的年度零售額，這意味著比去年增長20%。

北京方面也承諾提高工資，並提高家庭消費佔經濟總量的比重。目前，家庭消費佔國內生產毛額（GDP）的比重約為40%，遠低於大多數已開發國家60%的水準。

但分析人士表示，這些目標並不算特別雄心勃勃。而且中國那些固執地不願花錢的消費者，幾乎沒有進一步去增加支出的跡象。

在社交媒體論壇上，購物者分享著如何精打細算的技巧，他們奉行著「能省則省，當用則用」的原則。

用戶們也分享了「購物車冷靜期」的技巧，也就是把非必需品放在購物車裡三天後再決定是否要購買。 （這種做法是對官方強制執行的離婚夫婦「冷靜期」的一種諷刺。）

另一些人則試圖用更便宜的本土品牌化妝品取代外國品牌，用嬰兒潤膚露代替保養品。 一位微博用戶最近發文說:「買合用的，不買貴價的」。

同時，包括化妝品和汽車在內的各種產品的銷量持續下滑。對於汽車等類別而言，近期的暴跌因一項旨在刺激消費政策的結束而加劇。

自從房地產市場崩盤以來，中國決策者一直試圖用更強勁的消費支出來彌補房地產行業帶來的成長。他們從2024年開始，為家庭以舊換新提供巨額補貼，用於舊車、舊家電和舊手機的置換。

雖然這項政策刺激了一些消費活動，但它未能解決房地產價值暴跌的問題，而大部分家庭財富都集中在房地產領域。經濟學家表示，在政策所刺激的急增銷售後，中國目前正處於「償還期」。

隨著經濟因出現少數受益於中國在全球人工智能熱潮的人，與其餘人群之間出現分化。這種分化正在對中國的社會結構產生深遠的影響。

中國的房地產泡沫破裂導致超過1,400萬人失去了建築業的工作。許多這些工人在較細小的城市購買了公寓房，遠離一些人工智可能創造財富而重振部分房地產市場的小區。

諮詢公司歐亞集團 中國區的總監Dan Wang表示，人工智能熱潮「並沒有惠及中國的普通民眾，因為這種優先發展高科技和半導體產業的政策實際上導致了結構性失業和就業不足」。

此外，Wang女士也指出，目前可支配收入的成長低於經濟成長。她表示，如果這種情況持續下去，“這意味著國民收入的分配將向政府和企業傾斜，而不是向消費者傾斜。”

          So, China’s economy is at the slowest point in three years, reflecting a broader slump. Although China’s factories are churning out chips and electric cars to supply a global boom in artificial intelligence and energy-saving products, many Chinese people are feeling squeezed at home. The economy is splitting between the relatively few who benefit from China’s role in the global A.I. boom and the rest. Furthermore, it is noted that people’s disposable income growth is now lower than economic growth. If that continues, it would mean that the national income is skewed in distribution toward government and companies, not consumers. Apparent, the government needs to do more to deal with the economic slowdown.