Recently The New York Times reported the following:
China’s Economy Grows at Slowest Pace in Years (1/2)
Economic growth of 4.3 percent in the second quarter,
versus the same period last year, reflected a broad slump outside of the
country’s export-oriented manufacturing might.
The NYT -By Alexandra Stevenson and Murphy Zhao - Reporting
from Hong Kong
July 15, 2026
Updated 2:38 a.m. ET
China’s economy last quarter grew at the slowest rate in
three years, reflecting a broader slump that the country’s leaders signaled
earlier this year when they set the lowest growth target in more than three
decades.
On Wednesday, that National Bureau of Statistics said that the economy expanded by 4.3 percent in the second quarter, compared to a year ago, down from a 5 percent pace in the first quarter and short of economists’ expectations.
Although China’s factories are churning out chips and electric cars to supply a global boom in artificial intelligence and energy-saving products, many Chinese people are feeling squeezed at home.
A long-running property crisis has no end in sight, with steep declines in construction dragging down economic growth. Jobs outside of factories are hard to come by and paychecks are not growing. Retail sales of consumer goods have been choppy. They fell in May, for the first time since the end of Covid-19 lockdowns in late 2022, before recovering somewhat in June.
That is in stark contrast to China’s relentless strength in manufacturing and trade, with a government report released on Tuesday showing China’s exports surging by 27 percent in June compared with a year earlier, driven by shipments of chips, batteries and cars. China’s trade surplus in June, at more than $125 billion, was second largest on record.
In other words, China’s mighty export machine is masking weaknesses elsewhere.
“You get this A.I. boom, which is a global thing, and China is part of the leading nations on the frontier,” said Yu Song, the chief China economist at UBS Securities. “Without this, China’s economy would be in a much worse state.”
When measured on a quarter-to-quarter basis, China’s economy expanded by only 0.9 percent in the second quarter. When projected out for a year, the second-quarter data implies that the economy was growing at an annual rate of 3.6 percent, sharply down from a pace of more than 6 percent in the first quarter.
The second-quarter annualized rate also missed official targets. Shortcomings in China’s economic growth drivers prompted the ruling Communist Party earlier this year to set the lowest annual growth target in decades, with a goal of between 4.5 percent and 5 percent this year.
Stepping back to consider the trends in the first half of the year, economists say that China’s manufacturing and export prowess, however robust, cannot carry growth on its own.
Industrial production rose by 5.4 percent in the first six months of the year, versus the same period last year. High-tech manufacturing rose by more than 13 percent over that period. But fixed asset investment — which includes infrastructure, property construction and manufacturing — fell by 5.7 percent. Real estate development dropped 18 percent.
The value of China’s exports surged by more than 20 percent in the first half. But consumer spending, which a Moody’s Analytics report said “remains the economy’s weakest link,” faltered. Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3 percent over the first half of the year.
The effects of the war in Iran have pinched Chinese households, with rising fuel prices prompting them to drive and fly less, at a time when many were already worried about the economy and choosing to save more.
China has softened the blow of rising fuel costs by controlling the price at the pump, but the cost of filling up for drivers is still double-digit percentages higher than a year ago.
One silver lining, economists said, was that rising fuel prices started to feed through to broader inflation in the quarter, reversing a problem that China has struggled to shake: more than three years of a broad-based decline in prices. Such deflation tends to chill spending, with consumers putting off purchases in expectation that prices will be lower in the future.
China’s gross domestic product deflator, a broad measure of prices across the economy, was negative in 13 of the past 14 quarters — the most protracted slump on record. But it turned positive in the second quarter.
(to be continued)
Translation
中國經濟成長創多年來新低（1/2）
中國經濟上季成長創三年新低，反映出更廣泛的經濟下滑趨勢。今年早些時候，中國領導人設定了三十多年來的最低成長目標，也預示了這一趨勢。
週三，國家統計局公佈的數據顯示，第二季中國經濟年增4.3%，低於第一季的5%，也低於經濟學家的預期。
儘管中國工廠正源源不絕地生產晶片和電動車，以滿足全球人工智能和節能產品的需求，但許多中國人卻在國內感到生活拮据。
長期存在的房地產危機仍看不到盡頭，建築業的急劇下滑拖累了經濟成長。工廠以外的工作機會難得，薪資成長也停滯不前。消費品零售額波動不定。
5月份，自2022年底新冠疫情封鎖措施解除以來，零售額首次出現下滑，6月略有回升。
這與中國製造業和貿易的強勁勢頭形成鮮明對比。週二發佈的一份政府報告顯示，受晶片、電池和汽車出貨量的推動，中國6月出口額年增27%。 6月中國貿易順差超過1,250億美元，創史上第二高。
換句話說，中國強大的出口機器遮掩了其他方面的疲軟。
瑞銀證券首席中國經濟學家Yu Song表示：“人工智能的蓬勃發展是全球性的，而中國是走在前端的領先國家之一。如果沒有人工智能，中國經濟的狀況會糟糕得多。”
按季度環比計算，中國經濟第二季僅成長0.9%。若將第二季的數據推算至一年，則經濟年化成長率為3.6%，較第一季超過6%的成長速度大幅下降。
第二季的年化成長率也低於官方目標。由於中國經濟成長動力不足，執政的中國共產黨在今年稍早設定了數十年來最低的年度成長目標，將今年的成長率目標設定在4.5%至5%之間。
回顧上半年的發展趨勢，經濟學家指出，儘管中國的製造業和出口實力強勁，但僅靠這些優勢無法支撐經濟成長。
相比去年同期，今年上半年，工業生產年增5.4%。高科技製造業年增超過13%。但固定資產投資（包括基礎建設、房地產建設和製造業）下降5.7%。房地產開發下降18%。
中國上半年出口額成長超過20%。但消費支出卻步履維艱 - 穆迪分析公司一份報告稱，消費支出「仍然是經濟最薄弱的一環」。上半年，消費品零售額成長1.3%。
伊朗戰爭的影響給中國家庭帶來了壓力，不斷上漲的燃料價格促使他們減少駕車和乘坐飛機。當前許多人已經對經濟狀況感到擔憂，並選擇增加儲蓄。
中國透過控制油價緩解了燃油成本上漲的衝擊，但目前駕駛者的入油成本仍比一年前高出兩位數百份比。
經濟學家指出，有一線希望在於燃油價格上漲在本季開始傳導至更廣泛的通膨，扭轉了中國長期以來難以擺脫的通縮局面：三年多來物價普遍下跌。這種通貨緊縮往往會抑制消費，消費者會延後購買，預期未來價格會更低。
中國的國內生產總值平減指數（衡量經濟整體物價水準的指標）在過去14季中有13季為負值，創下歷史最長的低迷期。但該指數在第二季轉正。
（待續）
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