中國投資者湧入股市，擔心錯過極大形的盛會

Recently Reuters reported the following:

Chinese investors rush into stocks for fear of missing out on epic rally

Reuters - By Samuel Shen and Summer Zhen

September 30, 20243:45 PM GMT+8Updated 3 days ago

SHANGHAI/HONG KONG, Sept 30 (Reuters) -Animal spirits are back in China's stock market as investors rush into equities, galvanized by Beijing's policy bonanza and driven by fear of missing out on what some see as a rally of historic intensity.

Brokerages are bustling with retail clients and a burst of orders is jamming trading systems as investors rotate money out of bonds and deposits into stocks, leading to an explosion in stock turnover and a jump in yields.

"Deposit rates are too low, and real estate investment is no longer safe," said 30-year-old office worker Darren Wang, who started buying stocks using borrowed money.

"There's no other way to be rich other than redoubling bets on stocks. The market craze you see this time could be unprecedented."

Stocks have endured three years of gloom as economic activity struggled to return to pre-pandemic buoyancy while a debt crisis among property developers rippled through markets.

That gloom suddenly turned into euphoria last week as the blue-chip CSI300 Index surged 16 percent for its best week since 1998, after the government announced a volley of stimulus including interest rate cuts and a US$114 billion war chest to boost share prices.

Many of the policies are yet to be implemented and there is no guarantee they can fundamentally improve business conditions or cure economic illnesses, including the prolonged property crisis and anemic consumption. Even so, investors said they are following the money.

"Life has been tough for so long and finally it's time to make some money," said Wen Hao, a manager at a tech startup in Hangzhou who bought energy stocks on Monday.

He drew parallels to the bull run of 2015 when Shanghai's stock benchmark doubled in just six months, citing huge sums of "state-backed money on their way into the stock market".

The central bank last week unveiled a swap program initially worth 500 billion yuan (US$71.30 billion) to fund stock purchases by brokers, funds and insurers. It will also create a 300-billion-yuan re-lending facility to fund share buy-backs by listed companies. Both schemes are set to be expanded.

China's CSI300 Index surged more than 8 percent on Monday, extending last week's 16 percent jump. Shanghai stocks shot up more than 7 percent while Shenzhen shares soared more than 10 percent, with combined turnover of 2.6 trillion yuan exceeding the bull run a decade ago.

"The 2014-15 bull run was funded by illegal margin financing. This time, the central bank is offering the leverage," said a hedge fund manager who was not authorized to speak with the media so declined to be identified.

"Investors are rushing into stocks because there's state backing," the manager said, adding that difficulty making macro-economic projections means the rally is more about liquidity and mood than fundamental conditions or corporate prospects.

Signaling official assent for the rally, the China Securities Journal said in an editorial on Monday that reviving stocks and boosting investor confidence will aid the country's economic recovery, breaking a vicious cycle of curbed investment and damaged sentiment.

Brokerages nationwide, which were quiet just a week ago, are now brimming with investors eager to open accounts or borrow money to trade. Such is the demand that clearing services were unusually open at the weekend approving new accounts.

Guotai Junan Securities has arranged additional staff at branches to handle surging account opening requests for the upcoming National Day golden week holiday and to cover non-working hours, showed an internal notice seen by Reuters.

Guotai Junan Securities did not immediately reply to Reuters' request for comment.

Zion Zhong, a customer manager at Citic brokerage's Suzhou branch, said the margin financing business has suddenly become busy.

Another manager at a Citic outlet in Shanghai also described a surge in business activity.

"More people are opening stock accounts; more queries about margin financing... We're many times busier than previously," the manager said.

The sudden surge in buy orders triggered transaction delays on Friday at Shanghai's stock exchange. The bourse conducted tests over the weekend to ensure network reliability.

ROTATION

In a sign that money is rotating out of safer assets, China's 30-year treasury bond futures hit a two-month low on Monday after slumping 3.6 percent last week - their worst-ever week.

"A money migration of epic scale is coming - trillions are shifting out of bond funds, wealth management and other fixed-income products, into equities," Zhao Jian, head of Atlantis Finance Research Institute, wrote in a client note on Sunday.

Three years of bear market has fostered tens of millions of short-term investors who yearn to have their money back, so "the bull run will power ahead with few decent corrections," Zhao said, predicting many will end up out of pocket when the market inevitably turns.

Veteran individual trader Wu Jie, 48, said he felt bewildered by the sudden change of mood.

"The economy remains in bad shape," said Wu, who is currently light in his stock position.

"But if you look at the trading volume, the rally will likely be sustained. I have cash ready, and I'm waiting for a major correction so that I can get in."

Translation

路透上海/香港9月30日 - 中國股市的動物精神重新回歸，投資者在北京的政策刺激下湧入股市，並擔心錯過被一些人認為是歷史性的強力反彈。

經紀公司擠滿了散戶客戶，隨著投資者將資金從債券和存款轉向股票，大量訂單堵塞了交易系統，導致股票成交量激增和收益率飆升。

30 歲的上班族Darren Wang說: 「存款利率太低，房地產投資不再安全」, 他開始用借來的錢買股票。

“除了加倍押注股票之外，沒有其他致富的方法。這次你看到的市場熱潮可能是前所未有的。”

由於經濟活動難以恢復到疫情前的活躍狀態，同時房地產開發商的債務危機波及市場，股市經歷了三年的低迷。

上週，在政府宣布一系列刺激措施（包括降息和撥款1,140 億美元的應急備用基金）以提振股價後，藍籌股滬深300 指數飆升16%，創1998 年以來表現最好的一周，憂鬱情緒突然變成了歡欣鼓舞。

許多政策尚未落實，無法保證能夠從根本上改善商業狀況或治癒經濟疾病，包括長期的房地產危機和消費疲軟。即便如此，投資人表示他們正在跟隨着那些錢。

杭州一家科技新創公司的經理Wen Hao週一購買了能源股，他表示：“生活已經艱難了這麼久，終於是時候賺點錢了。”

他將2015年的牛市進行了類比，當時上海股市基準指數在短短六個月內就翻了一番，理由是大量「國家支持的資金正在進入股市」。

央行上周公布了一項初始價值5,000億元人民幣（713億美元）的掉期計劃，為券商、基金和保險公司購買股票提供資金。它還將設立3000億元人民幣的再貸款額度，為上市公司股票回購提供資金。這兩個計劃都將會擴大。

中國滬深300指數週一飆漲逾8%，延續上週16%的漲幅。滬股上漲逾7%，深股上漲逾10%，合計成交金額達2.6兆元，超過十年前的大牛市。

「2014-15年的大牛市是透過非法保證金融資提供資金的。這一次，央行提供了槓桿」; 一位未獲授權接受媒體採訪、因此拒絕透露姓名的對沖基金經理表示。

這位經理人表示：「投資者紛紛湧入股市，因為有國家支持」。他補充說，宏觀經濟預測的困難意味著股市上漲更多地取決於流動性和情緒，而不是基本面狀況或企業前景。

標誌著官方對股市上漲的認可,《中國證券報》週一在社論中表示，股市復甦和投資人信心提振將有助於中國經濟復甦，打破投資受到抑制、情緒受損的惡性循環。

一週前還很平靜的全國券商現在擠滿了渴望開戶或借錢進行交易的投資者。由於這種需求，清算服務額外地在周末開放，以便批准新帳戶。

路透社看到的一份內部通知顯示，Guotai Junan證券已在其分行增派員工，以應對即將到來的國慶黃金周假期激增的開戶請求，並彌補休息時間。

Guotai Junan證券沒有立即回覆路透社的置評請求。

中信券商蘇州分公司客戶經理Zion Zhong表示，孖展融資業務突然變得繁忙起來。

上海一家中信網點的另一位經理也描述了商業活動的激增。

該經理說:「越來越多的人開設股票帳戶；更多關於保證金融資的詢問......我們比以前忙了很多倍」。

買單突然激增，導致上海證券交易所週五交易延遲。該交易所在周末進行了測試，以確保網路可靠性。

轉向

中國30年期公債期貨繼上週暴跌3.6%（有史以來最糟糕的一周）後，週一觸及兩個月低點，這表明資金正在從更安全的資產中流出。

亞特蘭提斯金融研究院院長Zhao Jian週日在一份客戶報告中寫道：“大規模的資金遷移即將到來- 數萬億美元正在從債券基金、理財和其他固定收益產品轉向股票。”

三年的熊市，培育了數千萬渴望回本的短線投資者，Zhao說, 所以“牛市將強勢前進，沒有什何一些改變的理由”，並預測當市場不可避免地轉向時，許多人最終會賠錢。

個別資深交易員48歲的Wu Jie說，他對市場情緒的突然變化感到困惑。

目前持有少量股票的Wu說:「經濟狀況依​​然不佳」。

“但如果你看一下交易量，漲勢可能會持續。我已經準備好了現金，我正在等待重大調整，以便我可以入場。”

              So, China’s central bank last week unveiled a swap program to fund stock purchases by brokers, funds, and insurers. It will also create a 300-billion-yuan re-lending facility to fund share buy-backs by listed companies.  China's stock market soars as investors rush into equities, galvanized by Beijing's policy bonanza and driven by fear of missing out. Investors are rushing into stocks because there's state backing and a money migration of epic scale is coming - trillions are shifting out of bond funds, wealth management and other fixed-income products, into equities. I am interested in knowing whether this bull run will jump start the Chinese economy as a whole eventually.