研究估計，超級細菌危機可能會變得更嚴重，到 2050 年將導致近 4,000 萬人死亡 (1/2)

Recently CNN News on-line reported the following:

Superbug crisis could get worse, killing nearly 40 million people by 2050, study estimates (1/2)

By Jacqueline Howard, CNN

Updated 8:40 PM EDT, Mon September 16, 2024

CNN

 —

The number of lives lost around the world due to infections that are resistant to the medications intended to treat them could increase nearly 70% by 2050, a new study projects, further showing the burden of the ongoing superbug crisis.

Cumulatively, from 2025 to 2050, the world could see more than 39 million deaths that are directly attributable to antimicrobial resistance or AMR, according to the study, which was published Monday in the journal The Lancet.

Antimicrobial resistance happens when pathogens like bacteria and fungi develop the ability to evade the medications used to kill them.

The World Health Organization has called AMR “one of the top global public health and development threats,” driven by the misuse and overuse of antimicrobial medications in humans, animals and plants, which can help pathogens develop a resistance to them.

The new study reveals that when it comes to the prevalence of AMR and its effects, “we expect it to get worse,” said lead author Dr. Chris Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.

“We need appropriate attention on new antibiotics and antibiotic stewardship so that we can address what is really quite a large problem,” he said.

Older adults bear the burden

The researchers – from the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance Project, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and other institutions – estimated deaths and illnesses attributable to versus associated with antimicrobial resistance for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations and 11 infections across 204 countries and territories from 1990 through 2021. A death attributable to antimicrobial resistance was directly caused by it, while a death associated with AMR may have another cause that was exacerbated by the antimicrobial resistance.

About 520 million individual records were part of the data to make those estimates.

The researchers found that from 1990 to 2021, deaths from AMR fell more than 50% among children younger than 5 but increased more than 80% among adults 70 and older – trends that are forecast to continue.

It was surprising to see those patterns emerge, Murray said.

“We had these two opposite trends going on: a decline in AMR deaths under age 15, mostly due to vaccination, water and sanitation programs, some treatment programs, and the success of those,” Murray said.

“And at the same time, there’s this steady increase in the number of deaths over age 50,” he said, as the world ages; older adults can be more susceptible to severe infection.

The researchers found that the pathogen-drug combination that had the largest increase in causing the most burden among all age groups was methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, or MRSA. For this combination – the antibiotic methicillin and the bacteria S. aureus – the number of attributable deaths nearly doubled from 57,200 in 1990 to 130,000 in 2021.

Using statistical modeling, the researchers also produced estimates of deaths and illnesses attributable to AMR by 2050 in three scenarios: if the current climate continues, if new potent antibiotic drugs are developed to target resistant pathogens, and if the world has improved quality of health care for infections and better access to antibiotics.

The forecasts show that deaths from antimicrobial resistance will increase by 2050 if measures are not in place to improve access to quality care, powerful antibiotics and other resources to reduce and treat infections.

The researchers estimated that, in 2050, the number of global deaths attributable to antimicrobial resistance could reach 1.9 million, and those associated with antimicrobial resistance could reach 8.2 million.

(to be continued)

Translation

研究估計，超級細菌危機可能會變得更嚴重，到 2050 年將導致近 4,000 萬人死亡 (1/2)

CNN

 —

一項新的研究預計，到 2050 年，世界各地因對治療藥物產生抗藥性的感染而喪生的人數可能會增加近 70%，這進一步表明了持續的超級細菌危機的負擔。

根據週一發表在《刺針》雜誌上的這項研究，從 2025 年到 2050 年，全球將有超過 3,900 萬人因抗菌素抗藥性 (AMR )直接死亡。

當細菌和真菌等病原體發展出逃避用於殺死它們的藥物的能力時，就會出現抗菌素抗藥性。

世界衛生組織將抗菌素抗藥性稱為“全球最大的公共衛生和發展威脅​​之一”，原因是人類、動物和植物濫用和過度使用抗菌藥物，這可能有助於病原體產生抗藥性。

這項新研究表明，就抗菌素抗藥性的流行及其影響而言，主要作者、華盛頓大學健康指標與評估研究所所長Chris Murray博士說:“我們預計情況會變得更糟” 。

他說:「我們需要對新抗生素和抗生素管理給予適當的關注，以便我們能夠解決這個真正相當大的問題」。

老年人承擔重擔

來自全球抗菌素抗藥性研究計畫、健康指標與評估研究所 和其他機構的研究人員估計了由1990 年至 2021 年期間204 個國家及地區的22 種病原體、84 種病原體-藥物組合, 和11 種感染 因抗菌素抗藥性導致的死亡和疾病。抗菌素抗藥性導致的死亡是直接引起的，而與抗菌素抗藥性相關的死亡可能是有另一個原因，即抗菌素抗藥性加劇了這種死亡。

這些估計的數據包括約 5.2 億個個人記錄。

研究人員發現，從1990 年到2021 年，5 歲以下兒童的抗菌素抗藥性死亡率下降了50% 以上，但70 歲及以上的成年人則增加了80% 以上 - 預計這一趨勢將持續下去。

Murray說，看到這些模式的出現令人驚訝。

Murray說「我們出現了兩種相反的趨勢：15 歲以下的 AMR 死亡人數下降，這主要歸功於疫苗接種、水和衛生設施計劃、一些治療計劃以及這些計劃的成功」。

他說：「與此同時，50 歲以上的死亡人數穩步增加」。 隨著世界老化, 老年人可能更容易受到嚴重感染。

研究人員發現，在所有年齡層中. 造成最大負擔增加的病原體藥物組合中, 最多的是抗甲氧西林金黃色葡萄球菌（MRSA）。對於抗生素甲氧西林和金黃色葡萄球菌的這種組合，導至死亡人數幾乎翻了一番，從 1990 年的 5萬7千200 人增加到 2021 年的 13 萬人。

利用統計模型，研究人員也對到2050 年時, 在三種情況下由AMR 造成的死亡和疾病進行了估計：如果當前的氣候持續下去，如果開發出新的強效抗生素藥物來針對抗藥性病原體，以及如果世界是否提高了醫療保健品質預防感染並更好地獲得抗生素。

預測顯示，如果不採取措施改善去獲得優質護理、去獲得強效抗生素, 和去獲得其他資源以減少感染和得到感染治療，到 2050 年，因抗菌藥物抗藥性而死亡的人數將會增加。

研究人員估計，到2050年，全球因抗生素抗藥性導致的死亡人數可能達到190萬，而與抗生素抗藥性有相關的死亡人數可能達到820萬人。

（待續）