不友善：對 COVID-19 起源的探索如何變得政治上非常不愉快 (1/3)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Toxic: How the search for the origins of COVID-19 turned politically poisonous (1/3)

Associated Press - DAKE KANG and MARIA CHENG

Updated Mon, April 22, 2024 at 6:09 a.m. PDT·14 min read

BEIJING (AP) — The hunt for the origins of COVID-19 has gone dark in China, the victim of political infighting after a series of stalled and thwarted attempts to find the source of the virus that killed millions and paralyzed the world for months.

The Chinese government froze meaningful domestic and international efforts to trace the virus from the first weeks of the outbreak, despite statements supporting open scientific inquiry, an Associated Press investigation found. That pattern continues to this day, with labs closed, collaborations shattered, foreign scientists forced out and Chinese researchers barred from leaving the country.

The investigation drew on thousands of pages of undisclosed emails and documents and dozens of interviews that showed the freeze began far earlier than previously known and involved political and scientific infighting in China as much as international finger-pointing.

As early as Jan. 6, 2020, health officials in Beijing closed the lab of a Chinese scientist who sequenced the virus and barred researchers from working with him.

Scientists warn the willful blindness over coronavirus’ origins leaves the world vulnerable to another outbreak, potentially undermining pandemic treaty talks coordinated by the World Health Organization set to culminate in May.

At the heart of the question is whether the virus jumped from an animal or came from a laboratory accident. A U.S. intelligence analysis says there is insufficient evidence to prove either theory, but the debate has further tainted relations between the U.S. and China.

Unlike in the U.S., there is virtually no public debate in China about whether the virus came from nature or from a lab leak. In fact, there is little public discussion at all about the source of the disease, first detected in the central city of Wuhan.

Crucial initial efforts were hampered by bureaucrats in Wuhan trying to avoid blame who misled the central government; the central government, which muzzled Chinese scientists and subjected visiting WHO officials to stage-managed tours; and the U.N. health agency itself, which may have compromised early opportunities to gather critical information in hopes that by placating China, scientists could gain more access, according to internal materials obtained by AP.

In a faxed statement, China's Foreign Ministry defended China’s handling of research into the origins, saying the country is open and transparent, shared data and research, and “made the greatest contribution to global origins research.” The National Health Commission, China's top medical authority, said the country “invested huge manpower, material and financial resources” and “has not stopped looking for the origins of the coronavirus.”

It could have played out differently, as shown by the outbreak of SARS, a genetic relative of COVID-19, nearly 20 years ago. China initially hid infections then, but WHO complained swiftly and publicly. Ultimately, Beijing fired officials and made reforms. The U.N. agency soon found SARS likely jumped to humans from civet cats in southern China and international scientists later collaborated with their Chinese counterparts to pin down bats as SARS’ natural reservoir.

But different leaders of both China and WHO, China’s quest for control of its researchers, and global tensions have all led to silence when it comes to searching for COVID-19’s origins. Governments in Asia are pressuring scientists not to look for the virus for fear it could be traced inside their borders.

Even without those complications, experts say identifying how outbreaks begin is incredibly challenging and that it’s rare to know with certainty how some viruses begin spreading.

“It’s disturbing how quickly the search for the origins of (COVID-19) escalated into politics,” said Mark Woolhouse, a University of Edinburgh outbreak expert. “Now this question may never be definitively answered.”

CLOUDS OF SECRECY

Secrecy clouds the beginning of the outbreak. Even the date when Chinese authorities first started searching for the origins is unclear.

The first publicly known search for the virus took place on Dec. 31, 2019, when Chinese Center for Disease Control scientists visited the Wuhan market where many early COVID-19 cases surfaced.

However, WHO officials heard of an earlier inspection of the market on Dec. 25, 2019, according to a recording of a confidential WHO meeting provided to AP by an attendee. Such a probe has never been mentioned publicly by either Chinese authorities or WHO.

In the recording, WHO’s top animal virus expert, Peter Ben Embarek, mentioned the earlier date, describing it as “an interesting detail.” He told colleagues that officials were “looking at what was on sale in the market, whether all the vendors have licenses (and) if there was any illegal (wildlife) trade happening in the market.”

A colleague asked Ben Embarek, who is no longer with WHO, if that seemed unusual. He responded that “it was not routine,” and that the Chinese “must have had some reason” to investigate the market. “We’ll try to figure out what happened and why they did that.”

Ben Embarek declined to comment. Another WHO staffer at the Geneva meeting in late January 2020 confirmed Ben Embarek’s comments.

The Associated Press could not confirm the search independently. It remains a mystery if it took place, what inspectors discovered, or whether they sampled live animals that might point to how COVID-19 emerged.

A Dec. 25, 2019, inspection would have come when Wuhan authorities were aware of the mysterious disease. The day before, a local doctor sent a sample from an ill market vendor to get sequenced that turned out to contain COVID-19. Chatter about the unknown pneumonia was spreading in Wuhan’s medical circles, according to one doctor and a relative of another who declined to be identified, fearing repercussions.

A scientist in China when the outbreak occurred said they heard of a Dec. 25 inspection from collaborating virologists in the country. They declined to be named out of fear of retribution.

WHO said in an email that it was “not aware” of the Dec. 25 investigation. It is not included in the U.N. health agency’s official COVID-19 timeline.

When China CDC researchers from Beijing arrived on Jan. 1 to collect samples at the market, it had been ordered shut and was already being disinfected, destroying critical information about the virus. Gao Fu, then head of the China CDC, mentioned it to an American collaborator.

“His complaint when I met him was that all the animals were gone,” said Columbia University epidemiologist Ian Lipkin.

Robert Garry, who studies viruses at Tulane University, said a Dec. 25 probe would be “hugely significant,” given what is known about the virus and its spread.

“Being able to swab it directly from the animal itself would be pretty convincing and nobody would be arguing” about the origins of COVID-19, he said.

But perhaps local officials simply feared for their jobs, with memories of firings after the 2003 SARS outbreak still vivid, said Ray Yip, the founding head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention outpost in China.

“They were trying to save their skin, hide the evidence,” Yip said.

The Wuhan government did not respond to a faxed request for comment.

(to be continued)

Translation

北京（美聯社) - 在中國，對COVID-19起源的追尋已經陷入黑暗，在一系列尋找病毒來源的嘗試停滯不前和受挫之後, 追尋起源在中國成為政治內訌的受害者，這病毒導致数百万人死亡並令世界癱瘓數月。

美聯社的一項調查發現，儘管中國政府發表聲明支持公開科學調查，但從疫情爆發的第一周起，中國政府就凍結了有意義的國內和國際追蹤病毒的努力。 這種模式一直持續到今天，實驗室被關閉，合作破裂，外國科學家被迫離開，中國研究人員被禁止離開中國。

這項調查利用了數千頁未公開的電子郵件和文件以及數十次採訪，這些採訪顯示凍結開始的時間比之前所知的要早得多，並且涉及中國的政治和科學內訌以及國際指責。

早在2020年1月6日，北京衛生官員就把一名對病毒進行定序的中國科學家的實驗室關閉，並禁止研究人員與他合作。

科學家警告說，對冠狀病毒起源的故意忽視使世界很容易再次爆發疫情，這可能會破壞世界衛生組織協調的大流行病條約談判，該談判定於五月得出最終結果。

問題的核心在於，該病毒是從動物身上傳播的還是來自實驗室事故。 美國情報分析稱，沒有足夠的證據證明這兩種理論，但這場辯論進一步損害了中美關係。

與美國不同，中國幾乎沒有關於該病毒是來自自然還是實驗室洩漏的公開辯論。 事實上，公眾對這種疾病的來源幾乎沒有任何討論，這種疾病首先在中部城市武漢發現。

最初的關鍵性努力因武漢官僚試圖避免被指責而去誤導中央政府而受阻; 中央政府壓制了中國科學家的言論去對來訪的世界衛生組織官員進行了有預早鋪排的參觀； 美聯社取得的內部資料顯示，聯合國衛生機構本身，為希望透過安撫中國讓科學家而獲得更多資訊, 可能已經損害了收集關鍵資訊的早期機會。

中國外交部在一份傳真聲明中為中國處理起源研究的方式進行了辯護，稱中國開放透明，共享數據和研究，「為全球起源研究做出了最大貢獻」。 中國最高醫療機構國家衛生健康委員會表示，中國 「投入了大量人力、物力和財力」， 「沒有停止尋找冠狀病毒的起源」 。

正如近 20 年前爆發的 SARS（COVID-19 的遺傳學學親戚）所表明的那樣，情況的發展可能會有所不同。 那次中國最初隱瞞了感染病例，但世衛組織迅速公開抱怨。 最終，北京解雇了官員並進行了改革。 聯合國機構很快發現SARS很可能是從中國南方的果子狸傳染給人類的，國際科學家後來與中國同行合作確定蝙蝠是SARS的天然宿主。

但中國和世界衛生組織的不同領導人、中國尋求控制其研究人員, 以及全球緊張局勢都導致在尋找 COVID-19 起源時導致沉默。 亞洲各國政府正在向科學家施壓，要求他們不要尋找這種病毒，因為擔心病毒可能在亞洲境內被追蹤到。

專家表示，即使沒有這些複雜因素，去確定疫情是如何開始的也是非常具有挑戰性的，而且很難確切地知道某些病毒是如何開始傳播的。

愛丁堡大學疫情專家 Mark Woolhouse 表示： “對 (COVID-19) 起源的搜尋很快就升級為政治，這令人不安”; “現在這個問題可能永遠不會得到明確的答案。”

保密的雲霧

疫情爆發的開始被保密性遮閉了。 甚至中國當局首次開始尋找起源的日期也不清楚。

首次公開的病毒搜尋發生在 2019 年 12 月 31 日，當日期也不清楚。時中國疾病預防控制中心的科學家造訪了出現許多早期 COVID-19 病例的武漢市場。

然而，根據一位與會者向美聯社提供的世衛組織機密會議記錄，世衛組織官員聽說早前於 2019 年 12 月 25 日對市場進行了檢查。 中國當局或世界衛生組織從未公開提及此類調查。

在錄音中，世衛組織頂級動物病毒專家 Peter Ben Embarek 當提提到了較早的日期，將其描述為「一個有趣的細節」。 他告訴同事，官員們正在 “查看市場上出售的商品，是否所有供應商都有許可證，(以及)市場上是否存在任何非法（野生動物）貿易。”

一位同事詢問已不再在世衛組織工作的 Ben Embarek，這是否顯得異常。 他回答說 “這不是例行公事” ，中國人 “一定有某種理由” 調查市場。 “我們將盡力弄清楚發生了什麼以及他們為什麼這麼做。”

Ben Embarek 拒絕置評。 另一位世衛組織工作人員在 2020 年 1 月下旬的日內瓦會議上證實了 Ben Embarek 的評論。

美聯社無法獨立確認25 日對市場進行的這次檢查這。 它是否發生過、檢查人員發現了什麼、或他們是否對活體動物進行了採樣，去指出 COVID-19 會是如何出現的，這仍然是一個謎。

當武漢當局意識到這種神秘疾病時，在2019年12月25日的檢查一定會發生。一天前，一名當地醫生把取自一位患病的市場小販的一份樣本送來進行測序，結果發現樣本含有 COVID-19。 一名醫生和另一名醫生的親屬 (由於擔心造成影響，他拒絕透露姓名) 表示，有關不明肺炎的討論正在武漢醫學界蔓延。 

疫情爆發時，一名在中國的科學家表示，他們從國內一些有合作的病毒學家聽說在 12 月 25 日有調查。 由於擔心遭到報復，他們拒絕透露自己姓名。

世衛組織在一封電子郵件中表示，它「不察覺到」12 月 25 日的調查。 它不包含在聯合國衛生機構的官方 COVID-19 時間線中。

1月1日，當中國疾控中心的研究人員從北京到達該市場採集樣本時，該市場已被勒令關閉，並且已經進行了消毒，銷毀了有關該病毒的重要資訊。 時任中國疾病預防控制中心主任 Gao Fu 向一位美國合作人仕提到了這一點。

哥倫比亞大學流行病學家 Ian Lipkin 說: 「當我見到他時，他抱怨說所有的動物都消失了」。

Tulane大學病毒研究人員 Robert Garry 表示，基於對該病毒及其傳播的了解，12 月 25 日的調查將「非常重要」。

他說，關於 COVID-19 的起源, 「能夠直接從動物身上採集樣本將非常令人信服，而且沒有人會爭議」。

但美國疾病管制與預防中心駐華前哨站的創始負責人 Ray Yip 表示，也許地方官員只是擔心自己的工作崗位受到影響，2003年非典爆發後被解僱的記憶仍然歷歷在目。

Yip 說: 「他們試圖為了保護自己免於困境，隱藏證據」。

武漢市政府沒有回覆透過傳真發送的置評請求。

（待續）