Recently CNN News on-line reported the following:
Manufacturing in Mexico is having its moment. The US is
buying in — and so is China (1/2)
By John Towfighi, CNN Published 9:40 PM EDT, Sun April 28,
2024
CNN — As US supply chains decouple from China, Mexico’s
manufacturing sector is emerging as a winner.
Manufacturing in Mexico is attractive for companies that experienced pandemic-era supply chain snarls or want to decrease reliance on trade between the US and China amid geopolitical uncertainty.
That’s called nearshoring, which is when companies bring production facilities closer to home markets.
As nearshoring continues and global supply chains are reorganized, Mexico’s manufacturing sector has an opportunity for long-term success, according to Alberto Ramos, head of Latin American economics research at Goldman Sachs, who spoke with CNN.
Ramos said Mexico and China have been competing for the US manufacturing market for years, but amid a shifting US-China relationship, Mexico looks poised to pull ahead.
Mexico surpassed China as the top exporter to the US in 2023. Those exports were driven by manufacturing, which comprises 40% of Mexico’s economy, according to Morgan Stanley.
US imports from Mexico continued to increase in February, according to April 4 trade data released by the Commerce Department. Meanwhile, Chinese exports to the US were down 20% in 2023, compared to 2022.
US Trade Representative Katherine Tai told CNN’s Julia Chatterley that supply chains have made the US economy over-reliant on the Chinese economy in the past.
“The challenge for us is how do you create more resilience in your economy and in trade? Because right now, the way trade has been operating, our supply chains have been so entangled and they have created so much concentration in the Chinese economy, that we all feel extremely vulnerable because the supply chains are fragile,” Tai said.
Amid shifting geopolitics and competition, US and Chinese companies both see potential in Mexican manufacturing: Low labor costs, geographic proximity to American markets and the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) agreement — a free trade accord established in 2020 that makes trade in North America more cost-effective and efficient — are all factors contributing to a potential boom.
Made in where?
While US policy intends to decrease reliance on China and
“create more resilience” in US trade, moving supply chains can be tricky.
In fact, the US drive to disengage from the Chinese economy might be enabling China to access new markets and avoid US tariffs.
Cars are a major export for Mexico, and they illustrate much of what’s happening.
Mexico is a global hub for car factories, hosting plants from major companies operating in the US, including General Motors, Ford, Stellantis and nearly a dozen more.
Free trade agreements like the USMCA mean companies in the US, Mexico and Canada face fewer barriers moving, selling and buying parts across North America.
A diversion from free trade is tariff policy: In 2018, the US hiked tariffs on imports from China, which makes it more expensive for Chinese goods to enter US markets and dissuades companies from relying on Chinese supply chains.
Cars require tens of thousands of parts, which can be made in any number of places. And while Mexico’s manufacturing sector is increasing exports to the US, Chinese companies might be using Mexico as a route to avoid US tariffs on Chinese goods, according to Xeneta, an ocean freight rate benchmarking and market intelligence platform.
Shipping container exports from China to Mexico were up nearly 60% in January compared to a year ago, according to Container Trade Statistics analyzed by Xeneta.
The surge in exports from China to Mexico suggests the possibility “that the increase in trade we are witnessing is due to importers trying to circumvent US tariffs,” Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, wrote in a March 15 research note.
An April report by Moody’s Analytics said that while Mexico has increased its manufacturing output, production may be boosted by goods manufactured outside of the country.
The increase in Mexican exports to the US has “been roughly matched by simultaneous and closely correlated growth in Mexican imports from China,” according to S&P Global Market Intelligence country risk analysts Jose Enrique Sevilla-Macip and John Raines.
Goldman’s Ramos said there is an economic incentive to move production to Mexico to avoid tariffs. “It’s a way to circumvent the policy objectives that were behind the enactment of tariffs,” he told CNN.
(to be continued)
Translation
CNN— 隨著美國供應鏈與中國脫鉤，墨西哥製造業正在成為贏家。
對於經歷過疫情時代供應鏈混亂, 或希望在地緣政治不確定性中減少對中美貿易依賴的公司來說，墨西哥製造業具有吸引力。
這就是所謂的近岸外包(近岸委外)，即公司將生產設施移至更靠近國內市場的地方。
高盛拉丁美洲經濟研究主管 Alberto Ramos 在接受
CNN 採訪時表示，隨著近岸外包的持續和全球供應鏈的重組，墨西哥的製造業有機會獲得長期成功。
Ramos表示，墨西哥和中國多年來一直在爭奪美國製造業市場，但在中美關係不斷變化的情況下，墨西哥似乎已經做好了領先的準備。
墨西哥2023年超過中國成為美國最大出口國。 根據摩根士丹利（ Morgan Stanley ）數據，出口由製造業推動，製造業佔墨西哥經濟的40%。
美國商務部4月4日公佈的貿易數據顯示，2月份美國從墨西哥的進口量持續增加。 同時，與 2022 年相比，2023 年中國對美國的出口下降了 20%。
美國貿易代表 Katherine Tai 對美國有線電視新聞網的 Julia Chatterley 表示，供應鏈過去導至美國經濟過度依賴中國經濟。
Katherine Tai 說: 「我們面臨的挑戰是如何增強經濟和貿易的彈性？ 因為目前，按照貿易的運作方式，我們的供應鏈如此糾纏在一起，它使我們如此集中於中國經濟，我們都感到極其易受傷，因為供應鏈很脆弱」。
在不斷變化的地緣政治和競爭中，美國和中國公司都看到了墨西哥製造業的潛力：勞動力成本低、地理位置靠近美國市場以及美國-墨西哥-加拿大(USMCA) 協議 - 一項於2020 年建立的自由貿易協議，使北部地區的貿易美國更具成本效益和效率 - 這些都是促成潛在繁榮的因素。
在哪裡製造的？
儘管美國政策旨在減少對中國的依賴, 並為美國貿易 “創造更大的彈性” ，但轉移供應鏈可能很棘手。
事實上，美國推動脫離中國經濟可能助長中國進入新市場並避免美國關稅。
汽車是墨西哥的主要出口產品，它們說明了正在發生的許多事情。
墨西哥是全球汽車工廠中心，擁有通用汽車、福特、Stellantis 等近十幾家在美國營運的大公司的工廠。
幾乎每家美國汽車製造商都依賴墨西哥的零件來製造汽車或卡車，因為這些零件比美國製造的零件便宜得多。
自由貿易協定, 例如USMCA 意味著美國、墨西哥和加拿大的公司在北美地區運輸、銷售和購買零件時面臨的障礙更少。
由自由貿易的一個轉向是關稅政策：2018年，美國提高了從中國進口的關稅，這使得中國商品進入美國市場的成本更高，並阻止企業依賴中國供應鏈。
汽車需要數以萬計的零件，這些零件可以在許多地方製造。 據海運費基準和市場情報平台 Xeneta 稱，雖然墨西哥製造業正在增加對美國的出口，中國企業可能會利用墨西哥作為避免美國對中國商品徵收關稅的途徑。
Xeneta 分析的貨櫃貿易統計數據顯示，1 月從中國到墨西哥的海運貨櫃出口量與一年前相比，增近 60%。
Xeneta 首席分析師 Peter Sand 在 3 月 15 日的一份研究報告中寫道，中國對墨西哥的出口激增表明，「我們所看到的貿易成長可能是由於進口商試圖規避美國關稅」。
穆迪分析公司四月的一份報告稱，雖然墨西哥的製造業產出有所增加，這可能是由國外生產的商品促成產量增加。
標準普爾全球市場情報國家風險分析師 Jose Enrique Sevilla-Macip 和 John Raines 表示，墨西哥對美國出口的成長「大致與墨西哥從中國的進口的成長同步且密切相關」。
高盛的 Ramos 表示，將生產轉移到墨西哥以避免關稅是有經濟誘因的。 他告訴美國有線電視新聞網: 「這是規避頒佈關稅背後的政策目標的一種方式」。
（待續）
Note:
1. Nearshoring (近岸委外/近岸外包) is a form of offshoring in which an
organization recruits employees from a neighboring country to complete services.
Some main advantages of nearshoring include less expensive labor costs,
avoidance of language barriers, cultural alignment, geographical proximity, and
a similar time zone. Nearshore outsourcing lets a company to tap into a global
pool of highly skilled workers beyond the geographical footprint of one’s home
country, and nearshore locations tend to be centralized in metropolitan areas
that have strong infrastructure in place, allowing nearshore partners to scale
quickly and easily. (https://www.ttec.com/glossary/what-is-nearshoring-definition-and-benefits#)
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