北韓武器正在殺害烏克蘭人。 意義深遠 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

North Korean weapons are killing Ukrainians. The implications are far bigger (2/2)

BBC Jean Mackenzie - Seoul correspondent

Sun, May 5, 2024 at 1:49 a.m. PDT·9 min read

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Even so, Mr Byrne was frustrated to learn how many components in the missile had come from the West. It proved that North Korea's procurement networks were more robust and effective than even he, who investigates these networks, had realised.

From his experience, North Koreans based overseas set up fake companies in Hong Kong or other central Asian countries to buy the items using predominantly stolen cash. They then send the products onto North Korea, usually over its border with China. If a fake company is discovered and sanctioned, another will quickly pop up in its place.

Sanctions have long been considered an imperfect tool to combat these networks, but to have any hope of working they need to be regularly updated and enforced. Both Russia and China have refused to impose new sanctions on North Korea since 2017.

By buying Pyongyang's weapons, Moscow is now violating the very sanctions it once voted for as a member of the UN Security Council. Then earlier this year it effectively disbanded a UN panel that monitored sanctions breaches, likely to avoid scrutiny.

"We are witnessing the real-time crumbling of UN sanctions against North Korea, which buys Pyongyang a lot of breathing space", Mr Byrne said.

All this has implications that reach far beyond the war in Ukraine.

"The real winners here are the North Koreans", said Mr Byrne. "They have helped the Russians in a significant way, and this has bought them a tonne of leverage".

In March, RUSI documented large amounts of oil being shipped from Russia to North Korea, while railcars filled with what are thought to be rice and flour have been spotted crossing the countries' land border. This deal, thought to be worth hundreds of millions of pounds, will boost not only Pyongyang's economy, but its military.

Russia could also supply the North with the raw materials to continue making its missiles, or even military equipment such a fighter jets, and - at the most extreme end - the technical assistance to improve its nuclear weapons.

Additionally, the North is getting the chance to test its latest missiles in a real-war scenario for the first time. With this valuable data, it will be able to make them better.

Pyongyang: A major missile supplier?

More troubling still is that the war is providing North Korea with a shop window to the rest of the world.

Now that Pyongyang is mass producing these weapons, it will want to sell them to more countries, and if the missiles are good enough for Russia, they will be good enough for others, said Dr Lewis - especially as the Russians are setting the example that it is okay to violate sanctions.

He predicts going forward that North Korea will become a big supplier of missiles to countries in the China-Russia-Iran bloc. In the wake of Iran's assault on Israel this month, the US said it was "incredibly concerned" that North Korea could be working with Iran on its nuclear and ballistic weapons programmes.

"I see a lot of gloomy faces when we talk about this problem," said Mr Spleeters. "But the good news is that now we know how reliant they are on foreign technology, we can do something about it".

 Mr Spleeters is optimistic that by working with manufacturers they can cut off North Korea's supply chains. His team has already succeeded in identifying and shutting down an illicit network before it was able to complete a critical sale.

But Dr Lewis is not convinced.

"We can make it harder, more inconvenient, maybe raise the cost, but none of this is going to prevent North Korea from making these weapons," he said, adding that the West had ultimately failed in its attempt to contain the rogue state.

Now not only are its missiles a source of prestige and political power, but they are also generating it vast amounts of money, Dr Lewis explained. So why would Kim Jong Un ever give them up now?

Translation

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即便如此，Byrne先生還是對得知飛彈中有多少部件來自西方感到沮喪。 事實證明，北韓的採購網絡比負責調查這些網路的他所意識到的還要強大和有效。

根據他的經驗，駐紮在海外的北韓人在香港或其他中亞國家設立假公司，主要使用偷來的現金購買這些物品。 然後他們將產品運送到北韓，通常是越過與中國的邊界。 如果一家假公司被發現並受到製裁，另一家公司很快就會出現取代它的位置。

長期以來，制裁一直被認為是打擊這些網路的不完美工具，要發揮作用，制裁就需要定期更新和執行。 自2017年以來，俄羅斯和中國都拒絕對北韓實施新的製裁。

莫斯科由於購買平壤的武器，現在違反了它曾經作為聯合國安理會成員投票支持的制裁措施。 今年早些時候，它實際上解散了一個負責監測違反制裁行為的聯合國小組，莫斯科由此能避開受到審查。

Byrne表示： “我們正在目睹聯合國對北韓制裁的即時崩潰，這為平壤贏得了許多喘息空間。”

所有這一切的影響遠遠超出了烏克蘭戰爭的範圍。

Byrne先生說: 「這裡真正的贏家是北韓」。 「他們重要地幫助了俄羅斯，為他們贏得了巨大的籌碼」。

今年 3 月，RUSI 記錄了大量石油從俄羅斯運往北韓，同時也發現裝滿米和麵粉的鐵路車穿越兩國陸地邊界。 這筆交易被認為價值數億英鎊，不僅將促進平壤的經濟，而且還將促進其軍事。

俄羅斯還可以向北韓提供繼續製造飛彈的原材料，甚至是戰鬥機等軍事裝備，並且在最極端的情況下，提供改進其核武的技術援助。

此外，北韓首次有機會在真實戰爭場景中測試其最新飛彈。 有了這些有價值的數據，就能讓他們變得更優良。

平壤：主要飛彈供應者？

更令人不安的是，這場戰爭為北韓向世界其他地區提供了一個購物窗口。

Lewis博士說，既然平壤正在大規模生產這些武器，它就會想把它們賣給更多的國家，如果這些飛彈對俄羅斯來說足夠好，那麼對其他國家來說也足夠好 - 特別是當俄羅斯人正在樹立榜樣:違反制裁是可以的。

他預測，北韓未來將成為中國、俄羅斯、伊朗集團國家的飛彈主要供應國。 在伊朗本月攻擊以色列後，美國表示「極度擔心」北韓可能與伊朗合作進行核武和彈道武器計劃。

Spleeters 先生說: 「當我們談論這個問題時，我看到很多沉重的面孔」。 「但好消息是，現在我們知道他們對外國技術的依賴程度，我們可以採取一些措施」。

Spleeters 樂觀地認為，透過與製造商合作，他們可以切斷北韓的供應鏈。 他的團隊已經成功地在非法網路能夠完成關鍵銷售之前, 識別並關閉了該網路。

但 Lewis 博士並不相信。

他說：「我們可以令銷售變得更困難、更不方便，也許會提高成本，但這都無法阻止北韓製造這些武器」。他補充說，西方遏制這個流氓國家的嘗試最終失敗了。

Lewis 博士解釋說，現在它的飛彈不僅是聲望和政治權力的來源，而且還為其帶來了大量資金。 那麼金正恩為什麼現在要放棄它們呢？

So, according to this article, the real winners are the North Koreans. Their missiles have helped the Russians in a significant way, and this has bought them a tonne of leverage. Missiles boost not only Pyongyang's economy, but its military. the North Koreans are getting the chance to test the latest missiles in a real-war scenario for the first time. There is a chance that the war will provide North Korea a shopping window to the rest of the world. To the north Korean, missile is source of prestige and political power, they can generate vast amounts of money, there is little reason for Kim Jong Un to give them up. Obviously, the Ukraine war is strengthening the alliance between Russia, China, and North Korea.