墨西哥的製造業正在蓬勃發展。 美國接受這事實- 中國也是如此 (2/2)

Recently CNN News on-line reported the following:

Manufacturing in Mexico is having its moment. The US is buying in — and so is China (2/2)

By John Towfighi, CNN Published 9:40 PM EDT, Sun April 28, 2024

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On Capitol Hill, the possibility that Chinese steel is ducking US tariffs has garnered attention from lawmakers. The Biden administration announced that it is working with the Mexican government to prevent China and other countries from evading US tariffs on steel and aluminum via US imports from Mexico.

As early as February, Tai inquired about “the lack of transparency” around Mexico’s steel and aluminum imports from “third countries” during a meeting with Raquel Buenrostro, Mexico’s secretary of economy.

Concerns of tariff evasion are drawing a response from the US president — and will continue to beyond November’s election. The USMCA is set to be reviewed in 2026.

Both US President Joe Biden and his challenger, former President Donald Trump, espouse goals to grow domestic manufacturing, but they diverge on how to go about doing so.

Biden told steelworkers in Pittsburgh recently that the US government should consider tripling tariffs on Chinese steel. And Trump has proposed a potential 60% tariff on Chinese goods if he returns to the presidency.

“With both US presidential candidates vying to win important Midwestern swing states that have significant auto industries, the issue of US-Mexico-China trade will only increase as the 2024 presidential campaign unfolds,” S&P Global’s Sevilla-Macip and Raines said.

A gradual shift

While supply chains are shifting, moving factories isn’t always that simple. It can take significant investment, from time to money to people. The companies that are moving forward, though, are creating long-term opportunities for the Mexican manufacturing industry.

“It certainly feels like things are booming in Monterrey,” a city in northern Mexico, said Christoffer Enemaerke, a portfolio manager at RBC. On a recent trip there, he told CNN, “we met with companies and experts in the real estate industry and the feedback was that nearshoring is likely to be a multi-year driver of growth for Mexico, particularly in the northern part of the country.”

Tesla (TSLA), for example, said last year that it would build a new plant in Monterrey. “We’re super excited about it,” CEO Elon Musk said during an investor day for the company, adding that the plant would add capacity, rather than replace capacity elsewhere.

Sentiment on the ground is exciting, but most investment flows are yet to be seen, Ramos told CNN.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley see the value of Mexico’s exports to the United States growing from $455 billion to about $609 billion in the next five years.

That also makes Mexico an attractive base for many Chinese companies. EV maker BYD, a global competitor to Musk’s Tesla, announced in February plans for a major expansion in Mexico.

While BYD doesn’t currently sell cars in the US market, a move to Mexico would provide better access to the Mexican market while preparing the company for a potential move into the US.

“Chinese investment and exports to Mexico are highly likely to become a headline issue ahead of the 2026 scheduled review of the USMCA,” Sevilla-Macip and Raines said.

Until then, though, places like Monterrey continue to reap the rewards.

Monterrey, said RBC’s Enemaerke, “feels booming, new and vibrant, more so than other industrial cities I’ve been to, which have mainly been in Asia.”

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CNN’s Michael Nam contributed to this report.

Translation

（繼續）

在國會山，中國鋼鐵逃避美國關稅的可能性引起了立法者的注意。 拜登政府宣布，正在與墨西哥政府合作，防止中國和其他國家透過美國從墨西哥進口鋼鐵和鋁來逃避美國的關稅。

早在2月份，Tai 在與墨西哥經濟部長 Raquel Buenrostro 會面時就詢問了墨西哥從 “第三國” 進口鋼鋁一事的 “缺乏透明度” 。

對逃稅的擔憂正在引起美國總統的回應，並將持續到 11 月大選後。 USMCA 將於 2026 年進行復檢。

美國總統拜登和他的挑戰者、前總統特朗普都支持發展國內製造業的目標，但他們在如何實現這一目標上存在分歧。

拜登最近在匹茲堡告訴鋼鐵工人，美國政府應該考慮對中國鋼鐵徵收三倍關稅。 特朗普還提議，如果他重新擔任總統，可能會對中國商品徵收 60% 的關稅。

S&P Global 的Sevilla-Macip 和Raines 表示：「由於兩位美國總統候選人都在爭奪擁有主要汽車工業的重要中西部搖擺州，隨著2024 年總統競選的展開，美墨中貿易問題只會變得更加嚴重。

 一個漸變

雖然供應鏈正在發生變化，但搬遷工廠並不是那麼簡單。 這可能需要大量的投資，從時間到金錢再到人員。 不過，正在向前邁進的公司正在為墨西哥製造業創造長期的機會。

加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 投資組合經 Christoffer Enemaerke 表示，「Monterrey 這座墨西哥北部城市確實給人一種蓬勃發展的感覺」。 他在最近一次訪問墨西哥時告訴美國有線電視新聞網（CNN），「我們會見了房地產行業的公司和專家，得到的回應是，近岸外包可能會成為墨西哥持續多年的成長動力，特別是在該國北部地區」。

例如，特斯拉（TSLA）去年表示將在 Monterrey 建造一座新工廠。 執行長馬斯克在該公司的投資者日上表示: 「我們對此感到非常興奮」，並補充說該工廠將增加產能，而不是取代其他地方的產能。

Ramos 告訴美國有線電視新聞網，在大眾之間的情緒是興奮的，但大多數的投資流向仍有待觀察。

摩根士丹利分析師預計，未來五年墨西哥對美國的出口額將從 4,550 億美元成長到約 6,090 億美元。

這也使墨西哥成為許多中國公司有吸引力的基地。 電動車製造商比亞迪是馬斯克旗下特斯拉的全球競爭對手，二月宣布計劃在墨西哥進行大規模擴張。

雖然比亞迪目前不在美國市場銷售汽車，但遷往墨西哥將為該公司提供更好的進入墨西哥市場的機會，同時為該公司可能進軍美國做好準備。

Sevilla-Macip 和 Raines 表示： “USMCA計劃於在 2026 年進行復檢之前，中國對墨西哥的投資和出口極有可能成為頭條新聞。”

但在那之前，像 Monterrey 這樣的地方將繼續獲得回報。

加拿大皇家銀行的 Enemaerke 表示，Monterrey “給人的感覺是蓬勃發展、新穎且充滿活力，比我去過的其他主要在亞洲的工業城市更明顯。”

              So, as US supply chains decouple from China, Mexico’s manufacturing sector is emerging as a winner. Manufacturing in Mexico is attractive to many companies. China is evading the tariff by exporting to Mexico by taking advantage of the USMCA. EV maker BYD, a global competitor to Musk’s Tesla, has announced plans for a major expansion in Mexico. Probably the US will create further new laws to protect its key manufacturing industries.

Note:

1. United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) entered into force on July 1, 2020. The USMCA, which substituted the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is a mutually beneficial win for North American workers, farmers, ranchers, and businesses. The Agreement creates more balanced, reciprocal trade supporting high-paying jobs for Americans and grow the North American economy. (https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/free-trade-agreements/united-states-mexico-canada-agreement)