Russia's treasury is unusually affluent; cash on hand is 13 times more than before the invasion

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

ロシア国庫、異例の潤沢ぶり　手持ち現金は侵略前の１３倍以上

2024.02.25 Sun posted at 17:00 JST

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（ＣＮＮ） フィンランドに拠点を置く独立系の調査団体は２５日までに、ロシアの国庫の現状に触れ、３年目に突入したウクライナ侵略の前の水準に比べ１３倍以上の現金を抱えるかつてない潤沢ぶりを示しているとの分析結果を公表した。

インドへの原油輸出が昨年、過去最高となる３７０億米ドルに達したことが主因とした。

ＣＮＮは同団体「エネルギー・クリーンエア研究センター」（ＣＲＥＡ）による分析結果を独占的に共有できる便宜を得た。

インドに流れたロシア産原油の一部はインド西部沿岸部に位置する製油所で石油製品に加工され、米国や他の諸国へ輸出されていた。これら諸国はロシア産原油を締め出す制裁措置に加わってもいた。

ロシア以外で精製された石油製品は制裁措置の対象外となっており、「抜け穴」との批判も出ている。

ＣＲＥＡによると、ロシア産原油を材料にしたインドによる精製品の買い手は昨年、１３億ドル相当の取引をしていた米国が最大の顧客となっていた。対象の期間は２０２２年１２月から昨年末までだった。これら分析は公開されている海運あるいはエネルギー関連のデータに基づいた。

ロシア政府の歳入は昨年、過去最高の約３２００億ドルに達し、さらに膨らむ見通しとなっている。このうちの約３分の１がウクライナでの戦費に充てられていた。今年はこの比率がさらに増える見通し。

米欧などが拒むロシア産原油の引き取りについてインドは、国際的な石油価格を低めにし続けるための方途と正当化している。西側諸国とは中東産の原油の確保で競合していないとも主張。インドが中東産原油の一層の調達に乗り出せば、原油価格は１バレルあたり７５～７６ドルの水準ではなく、１５０ドルに急騰するだろうとも説いた。

ロシアによるインドへの原油販売は制裁措置には抵触せす、全面的に合法な取引となっている。ただ、専門家らによるインドへの海上輸送路の調査では、膨大な輸出量の背後にはいわゆる「影の原油タンカー船団」が絡んでいることがうかがえた。この船団は、ロシアが取引相手や商談の方途の偽装を試み、手にする収益を最大限にするために編成したものともされている。

Translation

(CNN) An independent research group based in Finland on the 25^th released the analysis on the current state of Russia's state treasury, for the first time it held an unprecedented amount of cash that was more than 13 times the level before the invasion of Ukraine which was now in its third year.

The main reason for this was that crude oil exports to India reached a record high of US$37 billion last year.

CNN had the privilege of exclusively sharing the results of the analysis by the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research (CREA).

Some of the Russian crude oil that flowed into India was processed into petroleum products at refineries located on India's western coast and exported to the United States and other countries. These countries also joined in the sanctions banning Russian oil.

Petroleum products refined outside of Russia were not subject to sanctions, which some had criticized this as a "loophole."

According to CREA, India's largest buyer of refined products made from Russian crude last year was the United States, which did transactions worth $1.3 billion. The period covered was from December 2022 to the end of last year. These analyzes were based on publicly available shipping or energy-related data.

Russian government revenues reached a record high of about $320 billion last year, and were expected to rise further. Approximately one-third of this amount was used to pay for the war in Ukraine. This ratio was expected to increase further this year.

India took over Russian crude oil, which the United States, Europe, and other countries had refused, and justified it as a way to keep international oil prices low. It also insisted that the country was not competing with Western countries to secure oil from the Middle East. It also said that if India started procuring more crude oil from the Middle East, the price of crude oil would skyrocket to $150 per barrel instead of the $75-76 level.

Russia's sale of crude oil to India was not subject to sanctions and completely legal. However, an investigation by experts into maritime shipping routes to India had revealed that a so-called "shadow crude oil tanker fleet" was behind the huge export volume. The fleet was believed to have been organized by Russia in an attempt to disguise its trading partners and ways in business negotiations so as to maximize profits.

              So, Russia is holding an unprecedented amount of cash that is more than 13 times the level before the invasion of Ukraine through the export of crude oil to India. Petroleum products refined outside of Russia are not subject to sanctions and could be a "loophole." It seems that oil embargo is not so effective in barring Russia to get money to fund its war in Ukraine.

Note:

The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) in its web-site says that they are an independent research organisation focused on revealing the trends, causes, and health impacts, as well as the solutions to air pollution. They use scientific data, research and evidence to support the efforts of governments, companies and campaigning organisations worldwide in their efforts to move towards clean energy and clean air.  CREA is registered as a nonprofit in Finland, with staff across Asia and Europe. (https://energyandcleanair.org/about-us/)