中國2024年政策目標對中美關係意味著什麼 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

What China’s 2024 Policy Goals Mean for Ties With the US (2/2)

Bloomberg News

Tue, March 5, 2024 at 2:30 a.m. PST

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Taiwan Tensions

Li stuck to China’s typical rhetoric on Taiwan, saying Beijing will resolutely “oppose” independence. He also said his country “will promote the peaceful development of cross-strait relations, be firm in advancing the cause of China’s reunification and uphold the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation,” phrasing largely in line with prior remarks.

US-China tensions continue to simmer over the democratically run island. Meetings between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and top US lawmakers in 2022 led China to hold major military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, with strains only easing after US President Joe Biden and Xi met in San Francisco late last year.

Last week, China’s state-run Global Times newspaper said the expected increase in the defense budget was warranted, pointing to tensions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.

Military Spending

China said its defense spending will grow by 7.2% to 1.67 trillion yuan ($232 billion) in 2024, the biggest increase in five years. That comes after Biden last year signed a $886 billion defense bill that included funding for countries in the Indo-Pacific region to counter Chinese influence.

The fact that spending seems to be outpacing economic growth also indicates the “growing concerns that Beijing has about the external environment,” said Drew Thompson, a former Pentagon official and a senior fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore. He added that the People’s Liberation Army will likely have “more resources to use military coercion against countries on its periphery.”

Even if funding is directed at people, rather than weapons or equipment, that shouldn’t reassure the US, according to Oriana Skylar Mastro, center fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. That’s because personnel is the military’s “number one limitation” which is cautioning China against using force, she said.

Economic Concerns

Li acknowledged that China’s ambitious economic growth goal of around 5% for 2024 is “not easy,” adding in his speech that “we need policy support and joint efforts from all fronts.”

There’s still plenty of uncertainty around the nation’s trajectory for this year. Stimulus is still fairly modest, with Beijing unveiling plans for special central debt on Tuesday but still keeping its headline fiscal deficit at last year’s 3% target.

“If you’re an American looking to invest in China, the key question is: Are consumers going to rebound? And it’s really ambiguous,” said Joseph Peissel, economic analyst at consultancy Trivium China.

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

 “Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s first budget indicates a strong commitment to growth. The 5% target for 2024 sets a high bar, given a more challenging base than last year — hitting it will require more stimulus. The stronger-than-expected budget plan is consistent with the ambitious goal.”

 — Chang Shu, David Qu and Eric Zhu, economists

 

The prioritization of longer-term economic restructuring over shorter-term growth also means that “China is likely to continue to export disinflation this year,” according to Duncan Wrigley, chief China economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. While Beijing is targeting 3% inflation this year, Chinese consumer prices are in a severe deflation streak.

Even though Chinese goods make up a small share of consumer prices in the US, the disinflationary trend could be welcomed by the Federal Reserve. The central bank is charting a path toward cutting interest rates, though US consumer prices have proved stubborn.

 --With assistance from Lucille Liu, Jing Li and Jill Disis.

Translation

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台灣緊張局勢

 李強堅持中國在台灣問題上的典型言論，稱北京將堅決「反對」台灣獨立。 他還表示，中國 “將推動兩岸關係和平發展，堅定推進祖國統一大業，維護中華民族根本利益” ，措辭與此前的言論基本一致。

美中圍繞著這個民主管理的島嶼的緊張局勢繼續升溫。 2022 年台灣總統蔡英文與美國高層議員的會晤導致中國在台灣海峽舉行了大型軍事演習，去年年底美國總統拜登和習近平在舊金山會晤後，緊張局勢才有所緩解。

上週，中國官方報紙《環球時報》表示，國防預算的預期成長是合理的，並指出南海和台灣海峽的緊張局勢。

軍費

中國表示，2024年國防開支將增長7.2%，達到1.67兆元（合2,320億美元），創五年來最大增幅。 此前，拜登去年簽署了一項價值 8,860 億美元的國防法案，其中包括為印太地區國家提供資金，以對抗中國的影響力。

前五角大廈官員、新加坡李光耀公共政策學院高級研究員 Drew Thompson 表示，軍費支出似乎超過了經濟成長的事實也顯示「北京對外部環境日益擔憂」。 他補充說，中國人民解放軍可能會「擁有更多資源對其周邊國家使用軍事脅迫」。

史丹福大學弗里曼·斯波利國際問題研究所中心研究員 Oriana Skylar Mastro 表示，即使資金是對人而不是用於武器或設備，也不能讓美國放心。 她說，這是因為人手是軍事上的 “最主要的局限” ，這局限提醒中國留意避開使用武力。

經濟擔憂

李強承認，中國在2024年實現5%左右的宏大經濟成長目標 “並不容易” ，並在演講中補充道，“需要政策支持和各方面共同努力”。

該國今年的發展軌跡仍存在許多不確定性。 刺激措施仍然相當溫和，北京周二公佈了特別中央債務計劃，但仍將總體財政赤字維持在去年 3% 的目標。

顧問公司 Trivium China 的經濟分析師 Joseph Peissel 表示: 「如果你是一個想要在中國投資的美國人，關鍵問題是：消費者會重新返回來嗎？ 這真是很不確定的」。

彭博經濟學是怎麼說的…

「中國總理李強的第一份預算顯示了對成長的堅定承諾。 鑑於基礎比去年更具挑戰性，2024 年 5% 的目標設定了很高的標準 - 要實現這一目標將需要更多的刺激措施。 這比於預期強的預算計劃與雄心勃勃的目標是一致的」。

 — 經濟學家 Chang Shu、David Qu 與 Eric Zhu

 Pantheon Macroeconomics 首席中國經濟學家 Duncan Wrigley 表示，長期經濟結構調整優先於短期成長也意味著「中國今年可能會繼續輸出通貨緊縮」。 儘管北京今年的通漲目標是3%，但中國消費者物價卻處於嚴重的通貨緊縮之中。

儘管中國商品在美國消費價格中只佔很小的份額，但通貨緊縮趨勢可能會受到美國聯邦儲備局的歡迎。 儘管美國消費者物價指數表現頑固，但央行正在製定減息之路。

       So, the economists from Bromberg believe that Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s first budget indicates a strong commitment to growth. Against this background I think China would, as far as possible, continue to rely on a non-confrontational relationship with the US in order to attract foreign investors to return.