Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:
中国の地方都市 高まる財政破綻リスク 債務1800兆円の衝撃 (2/2)
2023年11月15日 12時12分
WEB特集
(continue)
地方政府の債務 1800兆円
では、地方政府の債務はどれくらいにのぼるのでしょうか。
IMF＝国際通貨基金の試算によると、地方政府が公式に発表している債務は35兆元、日本円にすると約700兆円です。「隠れ債務」については56兆元、日本円で約1100兆円となり、合計1800兆円にものぼっています。
しかし、この金額がそれぞれの地方政府にとってどのくらいインパクトがあるのか、個別の債務がわかるデータについては、ほとんど公表されていません。
まず、地方政府ごとの「債務比率」を調べました。債務比率とは、地方政府の収入に占める債務残高の割合のことで、財政の悪化状況をはかることができます。
31の省や直轄市のうち、債務の比率が最も悪い10と、最もよい10を調べた結果が下記の表です。
ワースト1位は沿岸部にある天津です。ただし債務比率が悪いのは、ほとんどが中部地域や西部地域の内陸に位置しています。これは、依然として、沿岸部と内陸側で地方政府の収入に大きな差があるためです。
例えば、中国南東の沿岸部に位置する広東省。ＩＴ産業で急速に発展を遂げた深セン※などがあり、債務の総額をみると全国6位ですが、政府の収入が多いため、債務比率にすると全国28位。債務の負担は少ないことがわかります。（※セン＝土へんに川）
一方、内陸に位置する貴州省は、債務総額約55兆円。債務比率にして667％で、ワースト4位となっています。
さらに、貴州省の債務比率の推移を見てみると、2021年から22年にかけて急速に悪化していることが分かります。じつはこの傾向は貴州省に限らず、全国的にみられました。
なぜ、急速に債務比率が悪化したのでしょうか。調べてみると、多くの地方政府の収入が、21年から22年にかけて減少していました。
大きな要因の一つが、地方政府が依存してきた「土地収入」の減少です。中国では土地は国が所有していますが、地方政府は土地の使用権を不動産開発会社に売り、その収入をインフラ開発などの財源にあててきました。
しかし、昨今の不動産会社の業績悪化に伴って、この使用権の売却収入が落ち込み、不動産業界に依存して経済を成長させてきた地方政府にとって、大きな痛手となったのです。
“財政悪化の警戒ライン” 80以上の都市
地方政府の財政状況が悪化することに、中央政府も危機感を募らせています。
中国国務院は「地方政府の債務リスクに対する緊急対応計画」という文書を発表。地方政府の債務が危機的状況にある場合、財政再建計画を開始しなければいけないとしています。
その基準については「債務の利息支払いが政府の支出の10％を超える場合」となっています。この基準は財政破綻につながりかねない、“財政悪化の警戒ライン”と考えられています。
では、中国の都市（地級市）レベルで見たとき、どれくらいの都市が警戒ラインを超えているのか。
私たちは、アメリカのシンクタンク・ロディウムグループで中国の債務問題を分析しているローガン・ライト氏に協力を依頼。利息の支払額のデータの提供を受け、分析を試みることにしました。
分析対象の利息の支払い額には、「隠れ債務」の利息も含まれています。すると、データが利用できる205の都市のうち、財政再建を必要とするレッドラインを超えているのは、87都市にのぼることがわかったのです。
ローガン・ライト氏は、最悪のシナリオも想定する必要があると、警告を鳴らします。
「今まで融資平台が発行する債券は、地方政府が“実質的に保証”していたため、安全で債務不履行となることはないと考えられてきました。しかし、実際には、一部で支払いの遅延が起きています。もし、債務不履行に陥る可能性が出てくると、債券の信用は一気に落ちてしまうでしょう。確かに、債務不履行に陥る融資平台が出てきても、2～3社くらいであれば、強引に政治の力で押さえ込むことができるかもしれません。しかし、いったんそういうことが起きれば、債務不履行の連鎖の波が押し寄せることになります」
その上で、今までのように投資に頼った成長モデルを維持することは難しいと指摘します。
建設工事が中断された道路
「融資平台を使った投資の成長モデルは、地方政府にとって自分たちの懐を痛めずに公共インフラへの投資ができるため、都合のいいものでした。しかし、もはや投資の拡大を見込むことはできません。多くの人は、中国はこれからも、政府の掲げる目標通りGDP成長率5～6％を維持できると考えているかもしれませんが、それは非常に非現実的です。中国の成長ペースは今後、鈍化していくでしょう」
データ分析から判明した「危機的状況」
中国の地方政府の財政が悪化していることは、近年多くの研究者が指摘し続けてきました。しかし、特に「隠れ債務」に関するデータは、あまり表には出てこないため、その詳細な実態が分かってきませんでした。
今回分析できたのは一部ではありますが、中国の地方財政の危機的な状況、そして、従来の投資に頼った成長モデルを変えなければ、中国経済は長期低迷につながりかねないリスクをはらんでいることが見えてきました。
このことは、中国と経済的なつながりの強い日本にとっても他人事ではなく、中国経済の動向は今後も引き続き、取材していきたいと思います。
（11月5日「NHKスペシャル」で放送）
Translation:
(continue)
Local government debt 1,800 trillion yen
So, how much debt did local governments amount to?
According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund
(IMF), the officially announced debt of local governments was 35 trillion yuan,
or approximately 700 trillion yen in Japanese yen. The amount of "hidden
debt" was 56 trillion yuan, or approximately 1,100 trillion yen in
Japanese yen, in total it would be 1,800 trillion yen.
However, about how much of an impact this amount could have
on individual local government, very little data on individual debts had been
made public.
Therefore, we interviewed multiple experts, including think tanks and university researchers, to find out how to obtain debt data on hidden debts in the debt platform. Then, we learned that a private company in China had such a database, so we acquired it.
First, we looked at the "debt ratio" of each local
government. The debt ratio was the ratio of outstanding debt to a local
government's income, and could be used to measure the deterioration of a local
government's finances.
A table below showed the 10 with the worst debt ratios and the 10 with the best out of 31 provinces and municipalities.
The worst place was Tianjin, which was located on the coast.
However, most of the local governments with poor debt ratios were located in
the central and western regions. This was because there were still large
differences in local government revenues between coastal and inland areas.
For example, Guangdong Province (広東省) was
located on the southeastern coast of China. There were cities such as Shenzhen(深セン)*
which had rapidly developed in the IT industry, and it ranked 6th in the nation
in terms of total debt, but because of the large amount of government revenue,
it ranks 28th in the nation in terms of debt ratio. You could see that the debt
burden was low. [*zhen(セン) = earth river(圳)]
On the other hand, Guizhou Province, which was located
inland, had a total debt of approximately 55 trillion yen. The debt ratio was
667%, ranking 4th worst.
Furthermore, looking at the trends in Guizhou Province's
debt ratio, we saw that it had rapidly deteriorated from 2021 to 2022. In fact,
this trend was not limited to Guizhou Province, but was seen nationwide.
Why did the debt ratio deteriorate so rapidly? When we investigated,
we found that the income of many local governments decreased from 2021 to 2022.
One of the major factors was a decline in ``land revenue'' that local governments had relied on. In China, land was owned by the state, but local governments sell land use rights to real estate development companies and used the proceeds to finance infrastructure development and other projects.
However, with the recent deterioration in the performance of real estate companies, income from the sale of these usage rights declined, which had been a major blow to local governments that relied on the real estate industry to grow their economies.
More than 80 cities reached the “warning line for fiscal deterioration”
The central government was also becoming increasingly
concerned about the worsening financial situation of local governments.
China's State Council released a document called ``Emergency
Response Plan for Local Government Debt Risk.'' If a local government's debt was
in a critical situation, a fiscal restructuring plan had to be initiated.
The yard stick was that if “it becomes that interest
payments on debt exceed 10% of government expenditures''. This level would be
considered a "warning line for fiscal deterioration" that could lead
to financial collapse.
So, when looking at the city level (prefecture-level cities)
in China, how many cities had reached and passed the warning line?
We asked Logan Wright, who analyzed China's debt problem at
the American think tank Rhodium Group, to assist us. After receiving the data
on interest payments, to try to do an analysis was decided.
Logan Wright warned that a plan for the worst-case scenario
was needed.
“Until now, the bonds issued by Loan Platform are considered
to be safe and unlikely to default because they are `effectively guaranteed’ by
local governments. However, delays are occurring in reality. If the possibility
of default arises, the creditworthiness of the bond will drop immediately. It
is true that even if defaulting loan platform appears, if there are only 2 or 3
companies, it may be possible to forcibly suppress it through political power. However,
once that happens, a wave of debt defaults will surge forward.''
On top of that, he pointed out that it would be difficult to maintain the growth model that relied on investment as before.
Roads where construction work had been suspended
“The growth model of investment using financing platforms is
convenient for local governments because it allows them to invest in public
infrastructure without hurting their own pockets. However, we can no longer
expect to see growth in investment. Many people may think that China will be
able to maintain a GDP growth rate of 5-6% in line with the government's goal,
but this is extremely unrealistic. China's growth pace will slow down in the
future.”
“Crisis situation” revealed through data analysis
In recent years, many researchers had continued to point out
that the finances of local governments in China were deteriorating. However,
data on "hidden debt" in particular often had not been made public,
so the detailed reality was not understood.
Although we were able to analyze only a portion of what we were able to analyze this time, there was a risk that China's local government finances were in a critical situation, and that unless the traditional investment-based growth model was changed, the risk that Chinese economy would be leading to a long-term stagnation could be seen.
Such a matter was not someone else's problem for Japan which
had strong economic ties with China, and I would like to continue reporting on
trends in the Chinese economy.
(Broadcast on "NHK Special" on November 5th)
So, China
is increasingly concerned about the worsening financial situation of local
governments. It is found that the income of many local governments decreased
from 2021 to 2022. One of the major factors is a decline in ``land revenue''
that local governments have relied on. Local governments sell land use rights
to real estate development companies and use the proceeds to finance
infrastructure developments. It seems that unless this investment-based growth
model is changed, there is a risk that Chinese economy could head towards a
long-term stagnation.
Note:
In the web-site of Rhodium Group, Logan Wright
is introduced as a Partner at Rhodium Group and leads the firm’s China Markets
Research work. The site further says that Logan is also a Senior Associate of
the Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic
and International Studies. Logan’s research focuses on China’s financial system
and credit conditions in shaping outcomes within China’s economy, as well as
the policies of China’s central bank. Logan and the China Markets Research team
monitor China’s real economic conditions, financial market developments, and
future policy directions to gauge the influence of China’s economy on global
financial markets. He is also the author of three reports on China’s financial
system and the country’s longer-term economic trajectory, Credit and Credibility
(2018), The China Economic Risk Matrix (2020), and Grasping Shadows (2023). (https://rhg.com/team/logan-wright/)
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