Recently NHK News on-line reported the following:
WEB特集
2023年11月15日 12時12分
不動産大手の「恒大グループ」や「碧桂園」などが相次いで経営危機に陥り、不動産不況の波が押し寄せている中国。
経済成長が失速する中で、さらに中国経済の長期低迷を招きかねない大きなリスクが隠されていました。1800兆円を超える、地方政府の債務です。
それにより、財政破綻のリスクを抱える地方都市がいくつもあることが、NHKの独自取材で見えてきました。
（NHKスペシャル シリーズ調査報道・新世紀File1 中国“経済失速”の真実 取材班）
“財政悪化” 貴州省の実態
ことし2月、中国の貴州省政府のシンクタンクが、緊急を知らせる声明を発表しました。
「債務の問題は重大で緊急に解決すべきだが、財政が限られているため、この問題を解決するための進展が極めて難しい。自分たちだけでは、効果的に解決できないことが明らかになった」
貴州省の地方政府で、返済不可能にまで膨らんでいるという債務。一体、何が起きているのか。私たちは、中国内陸部に位置する貴州省の省都・貴陽に向かいました。
貴州省 貴陽
もともと貴州省は、中国の中でも貧しいとされてきた地域の一つでしたが、2000年以降、貧困脱却を目指す中央政府のかけ声のもとで開発が進められてきました。
その結果、この20年にわたりGDPが年平均で10％を超える成長を遂げてきたのです。
貴陽の中心部
しかし、街の郊外に出てみると、目についたのは工事が中断して放置された道路や橋、建物の数々でした。
道路ができてもあまり車が通らないため、農地の代わりに使っている農家もいました。
農家の人
「ここはまだ道路が完成していないし、車もほとんど通らない。だから唐辛子を干しているんだ。道路ができることを期待するのはやめた。道路ができても、生活が便利になるとも思えないし」
背景に「特殊な投資会社」
なぜ、このような事態に陥ってしまったのか――。
GDPを成長させるために、道路や橋などのインフラ開発を推し進めてきた貴州省。しかし、開発のための財源には限りがありました。そこで地方政府が出資して作ったのが、「地方融資平台」と呼ばれる特殊な投資会社でした。
中国の地方政府は、中央から認可された債券発行以外、資金調達が認められていません。それを回避して、資金をより集めるのが融資平台です。
銀行からの融資や債権の発行によって資金を集め、インフラ開発を推し進めてきたのです。
このスキームは、じつは中国全土の地方政府が利用してきたもので、融資平台は今では全土に1万以上あると言われています。
しかし、ここにきて、開発による収益が思うように上がらず、資金繰りが悪化する融資平台が相次いでいます。
特に、貴州省の融資平台の中には、銀行からの融資の返済が困難となり、返済を20年間繰り延べにすると公表したところも出てきているのです。
融資平台の資金繰りが悪化すれば、影響を受けるのは地方政府です。
公式の統計では、地方政府の債務の中に融資平台の債務は含まれていませんが、実際には地方政府が返済に関して保証しているとみなされているため、融資平台の債務は地方政府の「隠れ債務」と言われているのです。
(to be continued)
Translation
China was experiencing a wave of real estate recession, with major real estate companies such as Evergrande Group (恒大集團) and Biguiyuan (碧桂園)fell into financial crisis one after another.
As economic growth stalled, there were hidden major risks that could lead to a long-term slump in the Chinese economy. Local government debt exceeds 1,800 trillion yen.
As a result, NHK's own research had revealed that many local cities were at risk of financial collapse.
(NHK Special Series Investigative Reporting/New Century File
1: The Truth about China's "Economic Downturn" Reporting Team)
“Financial deterioration” actual situation in Guizhou Province
In February of this year, a think tank in China's Guizhou
provincial (貴州省)government issued a statement calling for an emergency.
“The debt problem is serious and needs to be resolved urgently, but limited finances make it extremely difficult to make progress in resolving it. It has become clear that we cannot solve it effectively on our own.”
The debt of local governments in Guizhou Province had soared
to the point where it was impossible to repay them. What the heck was going on?
We headed to Guiyang (貴陽), the capital of Guizhou Province,
located in inland China.
Guizhou - Guiyang
Originally, Guizhou Province was one of the poorest regions
in China, but since 2000, development has been promoted under the guidance of
the central government, which aimed to eliminate poverty.
As a result, GDP had grown at an average annual rate of over 10% over the past 20 years.
At the Heart of Guiyang
However, when I went out to the outskirts of the city, I saw many abandoned roads, bridges, and buildings due to construction stoppage.
Even after the roads were built, there were not many cars passing through it, so some farmers used it as farmland instead.
Farmer
``The roads here have not been completed yet, and there are
hardly any cars passing through here. That is why I am drying chili peppers. I
have stopped hoping for roads to be built. Even if roads are built, I do not
think life will be any more convenient.”
“Special investment company” in the background
Why fallen into such a situation?
Guizhou Province had been promoting infrastructure
development such as roads and bridges in order to grow GDP. However, financial
resources for development were limited. Therefore, the local government
invested and created a special investment company called ``Local Loan Platform.''
Local governments in China were not allowed to raise funds
other than by issuing bonds approved by the central government. Financing in this
way avoid restriction and was a platform to collect more funds.
From banks they had raised funds through loans and the issuance of bonds to promote infrastructure development.
This scheme had actually been used by local governments
throughout China, and it was said that there were now more than 10,000 loan
platforms across the country.
However, here we were, the profits from development had not
increased as expected, and financing platforms with worsening cash flow appeared
one after another.
In particular, some loans in Guizhou Province had announced
that they would have difficulties in repaying loans from banks and would
postpone repayments for 20 years.
If the financing platform with loan repayment worsened, it was the local governments that could be affected.
Although official statistics did not include loan-based
debts in local government debt, in reality, local governments were considered
to guarantee repayments, so it could be said that debts arising from loan
platform were “hidden debts” of local governments.
(to be continued)
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