Developing countries' debt to China is at least 166 trillion yen; many countries face financial difficulties as repayment deadline approaches

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

途上国の対中債務、少なくとも１６６兆円　返済期限迎えるも多くの国が財政難

2023.11.10 Fri posted at 18:00 JST

香港（ＣＮＮ） 途上国各国が中国の金融機関に対して抱える債務が少なくとも１兆１０００億ドル（約１６６兆円）に膨れ上がっていることが、最近公表されたデータ分析の結果から明らかになった。中国が過去２０年間にわたり行ったこれらの貸し付け数千件のうち、半数以上は返済期限を迎えているが、借り手となっている国々の多くは財政的な苦境に追い込まれている。

米バージニア州にあるウィリアム・アンド・メアリー大学の研究機関、エイドデータによると、中国の金融機関に対する期限経過貸付金の返済は急増している。分析の結果、中国の発展途上世界向けの債権額のうち８割近くは、現在財政難にある国々の支援に振り向けられているという。

長年、中国政府は自国の財政を組織して、貧困国のインフラ開発の資金に充ててきた。こうした取り組みの一つである巨大経済圏構想「一帯一路」は今秋、発足から１０年を迎える。

こうした資金は各国の道路や空港、鉄道、発電所の建設に使われ、債務国側の経済成長を助けた。多くの国々の政府と中国政府との関係は深まり、同国は世界最大の債権国となった。一方で、無責任な貸し付けが行われているとする非難の声も噴出している。

エイドデータは過去２０年以上にわたり中国が１６５カ国に行った貸し付けに関する分析を公表。それによれば現在そうした貸し付けの５５％が返済期間に入っているという。

エイドデータを統括し、今回の報告も執筆したブラッド・パークス氏はＣＮＮの取材に答え、これらの貸し付けの多くは一帯一路の構想以降に行われたものだと説明。それぞれの貸し付けに設けられた５～７年の返済猶予期間は新型コロナのパンデミック（世界的大流行）で２年間延長されもしたが、ここへ来て状況は変わりつつあるという。過去１０年ほどの間世界最大の債権国だった中国は、今や事実上、世界最大の債権回収国になっているというのがパークス氏の見立てだ。

エイドデータが依拠するデータは、中国政府及び国有の金融機関が低中所得国向けに２０００～２１年にかけて貸し出した資金に関するものであり、その総額は１兆３４００億ドル。中国の財政活動は不透明なことで知られるが、これらのデータは個々の貸し付けや補助金にまつわる公式情報の収集を通じて作成した。

研究者らはこの他、貸し手側がスイスにある国際決済銀行（ＢＩＳ）に報告したデータも引用している。これによると途上国が中国に負っている債務は、２１年の時点で１兆１０００億～１兆５０００億ドルに上ることが示唆される。

エイドデータによれば、中国から途上国への財政支援はパンデミックの始まりに伴って減少した。１６年に１５００億ドル近くのピークに達していたこれらの金額は、２０年には１４年以来の低水準となる１０００億ドル未満に落ち込んだ。

ただ貸し付け自体は依然として数百億ドル規模の水準にあることが、エイドデータの直近のデータからうかがえる。２１年の支援は補助金と貸し付けを含めて７９０億ドルと、前年から５０億ドル増加した。

一方、世界銀行が２１年に行った財政支援の総額は５３００万ドル前後だった。

Translation

Hong Kong (CNN) The debt owed by developing countries to Chinese financial institutions had ballooned to at least $1.1 trillion (approximately 166 trillion yen), a recently released data analysis revealed. More than half of the thousands of loans China made over the past two decades were now due, forcing many countries that had made borrowing into financial trouble.

According to AidData, a research institute at the College of William and Mary in Virginia, repayments of loans over time to Chinese financial institutions had skyrocketed. Analysis showed that nearly 80% of China's debt to the developing world was being allocated to aid countries currently in financial distress.

For years, the Chinese government had organized its finances to support infrastructure development in poor countries. One of these initiatives was the mega-economic zone concept “One Belt, One Road” and this fall marked the 10th anniversary of the launch of such an initiative.

These funds were used to build roads, airports, railways, and power plants in individual country, helping the debtor countries to grow their economies. Relations between many countries' governments and the Chinese government deepened, and China became the world's largest creditor nation. On the other hand, there were also voices of criticism that irresponsible lending was being carried out.

AidData published an analysis of China's loans to 165 countries over the past 20 years. According to the report, 55% of such loans were currently in the repayment period.

Brad Parks, who oversaw AidData and also wrote this report, told CNN that many of these loans were made after the Belt and Road Initiative. The five-to seven-year repayment grace period for each loan was extended by two years due to the coronavirus pandemic (world pandemic), but now came the situation that things were starting to change. Parks believed that China, which had been the world's largest creditor country for the past decade or so, now effectively became the world's largest debt collector.

AidData, relying on data related to funds lent by the Chinese government and state-owned financial institutions to low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2021, found the amount was totaling $1.34 trillion. Although China's fiscal activities were notoriously opaque, these data were generated by collecting official information on individual loans and subsidies.

The researchers also cited data reported by lenders to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Switzerland. This suggested that the debt owed by developing countries to China could reach between $1.1 trillion and $1.5 trillion in 2021.

According to AidData, financial support from China to developing countries declined with the onset of the pandemic. These amounts, which peaked at nearly $150 billion in 2016, fell to less than $100 billion in 2020, the lowest level since 2014.

However, the latest data from AidData showed that lending itself was still at a level in the tens of billions of dollars. In 2021, aid totaled $79 billion, including grants and loans, an increase of $5 billion from the previous year.

Meanwhile, the total financial support provided by the World Bank in 2021 was around $53 million.

              So, although China's fiscal activities are notoriously opaque, AidData relying on open data works out the amount of debt owed by developing countries to China and shows that it could reach between $1.1 trillion and $1.5 trillion in 2021. According to an expert, China has now effectively become the world's largest debt collector. Probably China needs this money to deal with its internal economic difficulties.

Note:

1. AidData, with Brad Parks as the Project Leader, is a research lab based at W&M's Global Research Institute. AidData claims that it equips policymakers and practitioners with better evidence to improve how sustainable development investments are targeted, monitored, and evaluated. Their research serves the unique needs of both the policy and academic communities, as well as acting as a bridge between the two. (https://www.wm.edu/offices/global-research/research-labs/aiddata)

2. College of William & Mary, located in Williamsburg, Virginia, is the second oldest college in the U.S. The university has more than 30 undergraduate programs and more than 10 graduate and professional degree programs. (https://www.wm.edu/)