China's long holidays consumption boom fails to appear; results fall short of government expectations

Recently CNN News on-line reported the following:

中国、大型連休中の消費ブーム不発　政府の期待裏切る結果に

2023.10.10 Tue posted at 19:46 JST

香港（ＣＮＮ） 中国は今月初めにかけての長い連休期間について、特筆するほどの経済効果をもたらさなかったと１０日までに結論した。広範に景気が低迷する中、主要な旅行と支出のデータは、消費の回復が予想された水準に届かなかったことを示している。

今月６日まで８日間続いた大型連休中、中国本土を旅行した人の数は合計８億２６００万人と、コロナ禍前の２０１９年の同時期に比べ４．１％増加した。中国政府の文化観光部が７日に公開したデータで明らかにした。コロナ下の中国では厳格なロックダウン（都市封鎖）が行われ、国内の移動も著しく抑制された。

旅行者の支出は１９年比で１．５％増の７５３４億３０００万人民元（約１５兆６４５０億円）だった。

しかしどちらの数字も政府の予測を下回った。連休前、文化観光部は国内の旅行者数を８億９６００万人、旅行支出を７８２５億人民元とそれぞれ見込んでいた。

国外への旅行者の規模も、期待通りにはいかなかった。

国家移民管理局によると、大型連休中は１日平均１４８万人が国境を越えて移動したが、これは１９年の８５．１％でしかない。同局の事前の予測は１５８万人だった。

米ゴールドマン・サックスのアナリストらは８日、旅行分野のこうしたデータから「サービス業の回復が減速したことが示唆される」と指摘。回復自体はまだ続いているとしつつ、消費とサービス業の一段の回復を促すには追加の緩和政策が必要になるとの見方を示した。特に不動産業界が依然として低迷し、景況感を落ち込ませている状況ではそうだと分析した。

大型連休中は映画のチケットの売り上げも２７億人民元にしか届かなかった。これは１９年比で３９％の減少になる。中国ＩＴ大手、騰訊（テンセント）が支援するオンラインチケットサイトのデータで明らかになった。

過去５年で２番目に低い額で、唯一上回った２２年は、広範なコロナのロックダウンで国内のほとんどの映画館が数カ月にわたり閉館した年だった。

Translation

Hong Kong (CNN) China concluded on the 10th that the long holiday period earlier this month did not bring in a significant economic effect. Amid widespread economic weakness, key travel, and spending data showed that the rebound in consumption had fallen short of expected levels.

A total of 826 million people in China made domestic traveling during the long holiday, which lasted for eight days until the 6th of this month, an increase of 4.1% compared to the same period in 2019 before the coronavirus pandemic. This was revealed in data released on the 7th by the Chinese government's Ministry of Culture and Tourism. In China during the coronavirus pandemic, strict lockdowns were implemented, and movement within the country was severely curtailed.

Traveler spending increased by 1.5% from 2019 to RMB 753.43 billion (approximately JPY 15.645 trillion).

However, both numbers were lower than the government's expectations. Before the holidays, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism had estimated the number of domestic tourists to be 896 million and travel spending to be RMB 782.5 billion.

The number of overseas travelers also did not meet expectations.

According to the National Immigration Administration, an average of 1.48 million people crossed the border each day during the long holidays, which as only 85.1% of 2019. The bureau had previously predicted 1.58 million people.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said on the 8th that the data in the travel sector "suggests that the recovery in the services sector has been slow." Although the recovery itself was continuing, he expressed the view that additional easing policies would be necessary to encourage a further recovery in consumption and the service industry. This was especially true in the real estate industry which remained sluggish, and the analysis showed that this was true situation with business confidence was low.

During the long holiday period, movie ticket sales only reached RMB 2.7 billion. This was a 39% decrease compared to 2019. This was revealed based on data from an online ticketing site supported by Chinese IT giant Tencent.

This was the second lowest amount in the past five years, and the only year it was better than was 2022, when most movie theaters in the country were closed for months due to widespread coronavirus lockdowns.

So, China’s long holiday period has not brought in a significant economic effect. Amid widespread economic weakness, key travel, and spending data show that the rebound in consumption has fallen short of expected levels. I think many people are expecting that the Chinese government will introduce new policies to support the economy.