1880 億美元外流顯示中國在世界市場的影響力正在減弱 (1/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

A $188 Billion Exodus Shows China’s Heft Fading in World Markets (1/2)

Jeanny Yu and Charlotte Yang

Fri, September 15, 2023 at 5:00 p.m. PDT

(Bloomberg) -- A massive retreat of funds from Chinese stocks and bonds is diminishing the market’s clout in global portfolios and accelerating its decoupling from the rest of the world.

Foreign holdings of the nation’s equities and debt have fallen by about 1.37 trillion yuan ($188 billion), or 17%, from a December-2021 peak through the end of June this year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on the latest data from the central bank. That’s before onshore shares witnessed a record $12 billion outflow in August alone.

The exodus coincides with China’s economic slump due to years of Covid restrictions, a property market crisis, and persistent tensions with the West — concerns that have helped make the “avoid China” theme one of the biggest convictions among investors in Bank of America’s latest survey. Foreign fund participation in the Hong Kong stock market has dropped by more than a third since the end of 2020.

“Foreigners are just throwing in the towel,” said Zhikai Chen, head of Asia and global EM equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management. There’s anxiety about the property market and a slowdown in consumer spending, he said. “Disappointment on those fronts has led to a lot of foreign investors rethinking their exposure.”

While China’s weakness was once seen as dragging down the rest of the world, particularly the emerging-markets group, that has clearly not been the case this year. Down about 7% in 2023, the MSCI China Index is staring at a third straight year of losses that will mark the longest losing streak in over two decades. The broader MSCI Emerging Markets Index is up 3% as investors chase returns in other places like India and parts of Latin America.

The divergence comes as China’s bid to achieve self-sufficiency across supply chains and souring ties with the US have made other markets less susceptible to its ebbs and flows. In addition to the economic decoupling, another reason has been the artificial intelligence boom, which has boosted markets from the US to Taiwan while giving less of a lift to mainland shares. China’s weighting in the EM gauge has dropped to around 27% from more than 30% at the end of 2021.

At the same time, a strategy of stripping China out of emerging-market portfolios is fast gaining traction, with launches of equity funds that exclude China already reaching a record annual high in 2023.

“China risks are several – LGFV, housing stock overhang, demographics, dependency ratio, regulatory volatility, geopolitical isolation,” said Gaurav Pantankar, chief investment officer at MercedCERA, which oversees approximately $1.1 billion of assets in the US. “Investment opportunities within EM exist in various pockets.”

(to be continued)

Translation

（彭博）—資金從中國股票和債券大規模撤出，正在削弱該市場在全球投資組合中的影響力，並加速其與世界其他地區的脫鉤。

彭博社根據中央銀行最新數據計算得出，截至今年 6 月底，外資持有的中國股票和債務從 2021 年 12 月的高峰已減少約 1.37 兆元人民幣（1,880 億美元），即 17%。 在此之前，光是 8 月境內股市就出現創紀錄的 120 億美元資金流出。

由於多年的新冠限制、房地產市場危機以及與西方的持續緊張關係，中國經濟陷入衰退，恰逢這時資金流出,  這些擔憂使得「避開中國」主題成為美國銀行最新調查中投資者最堅定的想法之一。 自2020年底以來，香港股市的外資參與度下降了三分之一以上。

法國巴黎銀行資產管理公司亞洲和全球新興市場股票主管Zhikai Chen： “外國人是認輸了。” 他說，人們對房地產市場和消費者支出放緩感到焦慮。 “對這些方面的失望導致許多外國投資者重新考慮他們的部署。”

儘管中國的疲軟一度被認為拖累了世界其他地區，尤其是新興市場國家，但今年的情況顯然並非如此。 MSCI 中國指數在 2023 年將下跌約 7%，將連續第三年下跌，這將是二十多年來最長的連續下跌趨勢。 由於投資者追逐印度和拉丁美洲部分地區等其他地區的回報，更廣泛的 MSCI 新興市場指數上漲了 3%。

這種分歧出現於中國正努力實現整個供應鏈的自給自足之際，及與美國的關係惡化使得其他市場不太容易受到起落的影響。 除了經濟脫鉤之外，另一個原因是人工智慧的繁榮，它提振了從美國到台灣的市場，但對大陸股市的提振卻較小。 中國在新興市場指標中的權重已從 2021 年底的 30% 以上降至 27% 左右。

同時，將中國排除在新興市場投資組合之外的策略正在迅速獲得接受，排除中國的股票基金的推出已在 2023 年創下年度新高。

MercedCERA 首席投資長 Gaurav Pantankar 表示：「中國面臨的風險有很多 - 地方政府融資平台、住房存量過剩、人口結構、撫養比、監管波動、地緣政治孤立。」該公司管理著美國約11 億美元的資產。 “新興市場內的投資機會存在於多個方面。”

（待續）