1880 億美元外流顯示中國在世界市場的影響力正在減弱 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

A $188 Billion Exodus Shows China’s Heft Fading in World Markets (2/2)

Jeanny Yu and Charlotte Yang

Fri, September 15, 2023 at 5:00 p.m. PDT

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In the debt market, global investors have pulled about $26 billion from Chinese government bonds in 2023, while plowing a collective $62 billion into notes from the rest of emerging Asia, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Roughly half of the $250 billion-$300 billion inflow that accompanied China’s inclusion into government bond indexes since 2019 has been erased, according to an analysis by JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Selling pressure on the yuan has pushed the currency to a 16-year low versus the dollar. The central bank’s loose policy stance, in contrast to tightening in most major economies, is weakening the yuan and giving foreigners another reason to shun local assets.

In terms of corporate debt performance, China appears to have fully decoupled from the rest of Asia as a crisis in its real estate sector heads into its fourth year. The market has become more locally-held with approximately 85-90% owned by domestic investors.

All of this comes against the backdrop of China’s deteriorating economy, which has caused a rethink of the market’s allure as an investment destination. Wall Street banks including Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan doubt whether Beijing’s 5% growth target for this year can be met.

Yet the gargantuan size of China’s economy and its key role in the manufacturing supply chain mean the market will remain a crucial part of portfolios for many investors, albeit to a lesser extent.

One channel through which China can still impact international financial markets is via globally traded commodities. Being the biggest importer of energy, metals and food, its influence extends beyond securities portfolios, creating ties to the global economy that are likely to prove more durable. The nation’s world-leading position in clean energy, from solar panels to electric vehicles, is one example of the expanded potential for trade as the world tries to meet its climate obligations.

“An economy which slows down doesn’t do so everywhere,” said Karine Hirn, partner at East Capital Asset Management. “We find good value in sectors with structural growth outlook, such as new energy vehicles, consumer-related and parts of renewables supply chain.”

The CSI 300 Index, a benchmark of onshore shares, fell 0.7% on Friday as foreigners sold even after data on retail sales and industrial production for August exceeded estimates. As the weakness persists, global funds’ positioning in China has already reached the lowest level since October, when the nation’s reopening from stringent Covid curbs sparked a sharp rebound over the next three months. In contrast, allocation to US equities — which have outperformed global peers this year — is rising.

For money managers like Xin-Yao Ng, investing in China requires a subtle balance of being wary of the structural challenges while seeking opportunities from individual stocks.

“I am structurally cautious about China’s long-term economic outlook, and conscious of fatter tail risks relating to geopolitics,” said Ng, an investment manager of Asian equities at abrdn Asia Ltd. “But China is still a very wide and deep universe with a lot of different opportunities. Broad valuation is very low now,” he said, adding that it’s an “interesting stock picking market” for fundamental investors.

--With assistance from Hooyeon Kim, Marcus Wong, Pearl Liu, Wenjin Lv and Jason Rogers.

Translation

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彭博社彙編的數據顯示，在債券市場，全球投資者在 2023 年已從中國政府債券撤資約 260 億美元，同時總共投入 620 億美元購買亞洲其他新興國家的債券。 摩根大通的分析顯示，隨著中國被納入政府公債指數，流入的 2,500 億至 3,000 億美元資金，自2019 年以來，其中約一半已被抹去。

人民幣的拋售壓力已將人民幣兌美元匯率推至16年來的低點。 與大多數主要經濟體的緊縮政策相反，央行的寬鬆政策立場正在削弱人民幣，並給了外國人另一個迴避其資產的理由。

就企業債務表現而言，隨著房地產行業危機進入第四年，中國似乎已與亞洲其他國家完全脫鉤。 該市場已變得更加本地化，​​約 85-90% 的股份由國內投資者持有。

所有這一切都是在中國經濟不斷惡化的背景下發生的，這引發了人們對市場作為投資目的地的吸引力的重新思考。 包括花旗集團和摩根大通在內的華爾街銀行對北京能否實現今年5%的成長目標表示懷疑。

然而，中國經濟的巨大規模及其在製造業供應鏈中的關鍵作用意味著該市場仍將是許多投資者投資組合的重要組成部分，儘管程度較以前小。

中國仍然可以影響國際金融市場的管道之一是全球貿易大宗商品。 作為最大的能源、金屬和食品進口國，其影響力超越了證券投資組合，與全球經濟建立了更持久的聯繫。 該國在從太陽能電池板到電動車等清潔能源領域處於世界領先地位，這是隨著世界努力履行其氣候義務而擴大的貿易潛力的一個例子。

East Capital Asset Management 合夥人 Karine Hirn 表示： “並非所有地方的經濟都會放緩。” “我們發現具有結構性增長前景的行業具有良好的價值，例如新能源汽車、與消費相關以及是可再生能源供應鏈的一部分。”

儘管8月零售銷售和工業生產數據超出預期，但外國人仍拋售股票, 在岸股市基準滬深300指數週五下跌0.7%。 隨著疲軟的持續，全球基金在中國的部位已達到10月份以來的最低水平，當時中國從嚴格的新冠疫情限制措施中重新開放，引發了相繼三個月的大幅反彈。 相較之下，美國股票的配置 - 今年的表現優於全球其他股票 - 正在上升。

對於 Xin-Yao Ng 這樣的基金經理人來說，投資中國需要在警覺結構性上的挑戰, 和從個別股中尋找機會之間取得微妙的平衡。

abrdn Asia Ltd 亞洲股票投資經理Xin-Yao Ng表示：「我對中國的長期經濟前景持結構性謹慎態度，並意識到與地緣政治相關的增大財務風險。他說: “但中國仍然是一個非常廣闊和深刻的宇宙，很多不同的機會。 現在整體估值非常低」。又補充說, 對於基本投資者來說，這是一個「有趣的選股市場」。

              So, although China’s economy is deteriorating, one way through which China can still impact international financial markets is in globally traded commodities. Being the biggest importer of energy, metals and food, it creates ties to the global economy. Also, it’s world-leading position in clean energy, from solar panels to electric vehicles, is one example of its potential for trade.

Note:

Tail risk, sometimes called "fat tail risk", is the financial risk of an asset or portfolio of assets moving more than three standard deviations from its current price, above the risk of a normal distribution. Tail risks include low-probability events arising at both ends of a normal distribution curve, also known as tail events. However, as investors are generally more concerned with unexpected losses rather than gains, a debate about tail risk is focused on the left tail. (Wikipedia)