分析 - 新興國家在尋求債務減免上, 中國令事情蒙上巨大陰影

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Analysis - China casts giant shadow over emerging nations' chase for debt relief

Sun, July 3, 2022 at 2:14 PM

By Jorgelina do Rosario

LONDON (Reuters) - From a $360 million project to expand Zambia's international airport in Lusaka to a $1.4 billion city port in Sri Lanka's capital of Colombo, China is the missing piece in the puzzle of a number of debt talks under way in developing markets.

The second-largest economy and the biggest bilateral creditor in the world is a dominant lender to many smaller, riskier developing nations. But Beijing has kept a low profile, not only on lending conditions but also on how it renegotiates with borrowers in distress.

That became more evident after the COVID-19 pandemic hit. Many economies buckling under economic strain are seeking debt relief.

Now, the pressure is rising on China to take a more active role in helping strained economies overhaul their debt burdens. Leaders of the Group of Seven rich democracies on Tuesday called on China specifically when urging creditors to help countries.

Poorest countries face $35 billion in debt-service payments to official and private sector creditors in 2022, with over 40% of the total due to China, according to the World Bank.

But analysts say the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank premise of fair burden-sharing in debt relief talks could set them on a collision course with China, putting the prospect of comprehensive debt restructurings into question.

"Chinese 'Belt and Road' money is everywhere – so we will see this over and over in sovereign debt restructurings," said Dennis Hranitzky, head of sovereign litigation at law firm Quinn Emanuel.

According to Beijing, the Belt and Road Initiative unveiled in 2013 is a platform for international cooperation in infrastructure, trade, investment and financing linking China with other parts of Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Africa.

China's foreign ministry and central bank did not respond to requests for comment.

Zambia and Sri Lanka are test cases on how fast debt talks evolve. Both also need to restructure with overseas bondholders and hammer out IMF programmes.

"China's engagement on debt talks is not in the hands of the IMF nor governments," said Polina Kurdyavko, head of emerging markets at BlueBay Asset Management in London.

"Bringing China to the negotiating table in a timely manner could be the biggest challenge in the upcoming debt restructurings."

OPACITY

Chinese lending is mostly extended by state-controlled agencies and policy banks and is often opaque.

A working paper of the National Bureau of Economic Research in the United States found half of the 5,000 loans and grants extended to 152 countries from 1949 to 2017 have not been reported to the IMF or the World Bank, despite China being a member of both multilaterals.

"Opacity is a recurrent problem with some of these Chinese loans," said Matthew Mingey, senior analyst with Rhodium Group, adding China had stricter confidentiality clauses on its commercial loans.

Data compiled over three years by AidData, a U.S. research lab at the College of William & Mary, found terms of Chinese state-owned banks' loans require borrowers to prioritise them for repayment.

Where China has agreed to ease debt burdens, details are often unclear.

The plethora of Chinese lenders also adds to complexity, though Export-Import Bank of China and the China Development Bank feature most heavily.

"When it comes time to renegotiate, individual Chinese banks may not necessarily have an idea of what other Chinese banks are doing," said Mingey.

GLACIAL

Progress has often been slow.

Zambia is seeking relief on $17 billion of external debt after becoming the first COVID pandemic-era default more than two years ago. Some of the slow progress is due to China's lack of experience with tricky debt restructurings, people familiar with the matter say.

Sri Lanka's talks are moving faster, with the IMF confirming it is on track for a new programme. China's approach, though, is not yet clear.

Meanwhile, some 60% of low-income countries are in, or at high risk of, debt distress, according to the IMF.

Seventeen smaller emerging economies have seen premium investors demand to hold their debt soar to levels effectively shutting them out of international markets. That number is higher than during peak-COVID-19 or the 2008 global financial crisis.

In late 2020, the Group of 20 launched a Common Framework to bring creditors such as China and India to the negotiation table along with the IMF, Paris Club and private creditors. Along with Zambia, Chad and Ethiopia have applied to restructure under this new, yet-to-be tested mechanism.

But the framework also "has added a bureaucratic layer to the already complex debt restructuring process" that could discourage other countries from joining, said Patrick Curran, senior economist at Tellimer.

(Reporting by Jorgelina do Rosario; Additional reporting by Ryan Woo in Beijing and Karin Strohecker in London; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell)

Translation

倫敦（路透社）- 從價值 3.6 億美元的讚比亞盧薩卡國際機場擴建項目到價值 14 億美元的斯里蘭卡首都科倫坡城市港口項目，在發展中市場正在進行的一系列債務談判裡, 中國是拼圖中缺去的一環。

這個世界第二大經濟體和最大的雙邊債權人是許多較小國、風險較高的發展中國家的主要貸款人。但北京一直保持低調，不僅在貸款條件上，而且在如何與陷入困境的借款人重新談判方面。

在 COVID-19 病毒大流行爆發後，這一點變得更加明顯。許多承受經濟壓力的經濟體正在尋求債務減免。

現在，中國面臨的壓力越來越大，需要在幫助陷入困境的經濟體重整債務負擔方面發揮更積極的作用。週二，七國集團領導人在敦促債權人幫助各國時特別呼籲中國。

根據世界銀行的數據，到 2022 年，最貧窮的國家將面對 350 億美元的官面方和非官方債權人的索債，其中超過 40% 是欠中國的。

但分析人士表示，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）和世界銀行在債務減免談判中公平分擔責任的前提, 可能會使它們與中國會有所衝突，從而使全面債務重組的前景受到質疑。

Quinn Emanuel 律師事務所主權訴訟主管Dennis Hranitzky說: “中國的‘一帶一路’資金無處不在 - 而我們將在主權債務重組中一次又一次看到這一點” 。

根據北京表示，2013年提出的 “一帶一路” 倡議是連接中國與亞洲、中東、歐洲和非洲其他地區的基礎設施、貿易、投融資國際合作的平台。

中國外交部和央行沒有回應置評請求。

贊比亞和斯里蘭卡是債務談判發展速度的測試案例。兩者還需要與海外債券持有人進行重組，並敲定國際貨幣基金組織的計劃。

位於倫敦的 BlueBay Asset Management 負責主管新興市場的 Polina Kurdyavko 表示: “中國在債務談判中的參與並不掌握在國際貨幣基金組織和各國政府的手中” 。

“將中國及時帶入談判桌可能是即將到來的債務重組的最大挑戰。”

不透明度

中國的貸款主要由國家控制的機構和政策性銀行提供，而且往往是不透明的。

美國國家經濟研究局的一份工作文件發現，1949 年至 2017 年向 152 個國家提供的 5,000 筆貸款和贈款中, 有一半沒有向國際貨幣基金組織或世界銀行報告，儘管中國是這兩個多邊組織的成員.

Rhodium Group 高級分析師 Matthew Mingey 表示： “其中一些中國貸款經常存在不透明性問題” ;並補充說中國對其商業貸款有更嚴格的保密條款。

威廉瑪麗學院的美國研究實驗室 AidData 凑合三年多來的數據發現，中國國有銀行的貸款條款要求借款人優先償還貸款。

在中國同意減輕債務負擔的地方，但細節往往不清楚。

過多的中國貸方也增加了複雜性，儘管中國進出口銀行和國家開發銀行的影響最大。

Mingey 說: “到了重新談判的時候，個別中資銀行可能不一定知道其他中資銀行在做什麼” 。

像冰川般緩慢

進展往往很緩慢。

贊比亞在兩年多前成為 COVID 大流行時代的第一個違約後，正在尋求減免 170 億美元的外債。知情人士說，進展緩慢的部分原因是中國在棘手的債務重組方面缺乏經驗。

斯里蘭卡的談判進展得較快，國際貨幣基金組織證實它正在製定一項新計劃。不過，中國的做法尚不清楚。

與此同時，根據國際貨幣基金組織的數據，大約 60% 的低收入國家正處於或瀕臨於高風險債務困境之中。

十七個較小的新興經濟體有優質投資者要求將其債務水平飆升至實質地將其排除在國際市場之外。這個數字比 COVID-19 高峰期或 2008 年全球金融危機期間更高。

2020 年底，20 國集團啟動了一個共同框架，將中國和印度等債權國與國際貨幣基金組織、巴黎俱樂部和私人債權人一起帶到談判桌, 乍得和埃塞俄比亞已與讚比亞一起申請在這一尚未經過測試的新機制下進行重組。

但是，Tellimer 的高級經濟學家 Patrick Curran 說該框架也 “為已經復雜的債務重組過程增加了官僚層” ，這可能會阻礙其他國家參加。

So, from a small project in Zambia to a big project in Sri Lanka, China is the missing piece in the puzzle of a number of debt-talks under way in developing countries. While China is a dominant lender to many smaller, riskier developing nations, yet Beijing has kept a low profile, not only on lending conditions but also on how it renegotiates with borrowers in distress. I think debt restructuring is both an economic and a political issue for China that require time to handle.