為什麼中國的通貨膨脹率低於美國、歐洲和英國？

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Why is China's inflation rate low compared to the US, Europe and Britain?

SCMP Frank Tang in Beijing

Fri, June 17, 2022, 2:30 AM

China's benign inflation readings are in marked contrast to many advanced economies, giving the country space for more monetary loosening while the United States, the European Union and Britain hike rates.

The consumer price index (CPI) grew 2.1 per cent in May from a year earlier, flat from April, though still at a six-month high, which reflected rising prices for crude oil, farm produce and material imports.

In comparison, inflation hit at a four-decade high of 8.6 per cent in the US and 8.1 per cent in the Eurozone last month. It surged to 9 per cent in Britain in April.

China's core CPI, which excludes the volatile prices of food and energy, rose by 0.9 per cent year on year last month, unchanged from April. Headline inflation for the first five months grew by 1.5 per cent, comfortably below the government's full-year maximum of 3 per cent.

The producer price index (PPI), which measures the prices for products as they leave factories, rose by 6.4 per cent in May, down from a peak of 13.5 per cent in October 2021.

Chinese officials and academics have attributed the divergence to Western stimulus measures, notably the unprecedented money printing used to save economies battered by the coronavirus pandemic.

The US Federal Reserve's balance sheet has more than doubled in the past two years to US$8.9 trillion, while Beijing, which was cautious about an all-out stimulus, has refrained from excessive loosening.

But part of the reason also comes down to the weighting of goods and services that make up China's CPI basket.

While China gives more weight to clothes and food, which fits its status as an upper middle-income country, the US places more emphasis on shelter and transport, both of which are easily affected by global energy prices and domestic monetary conditions.

Authorities have not disclosed the weighting of China's CPI basket, which was changed in 2021. However, Huang Wentao, an analyst with China Securities Co, estimated the weighting for food increased to 18.4 per cent, versus 7.8 per cent in the US.

For clothing, China's weight is 6.2 per cent versus 2.8 per cent in the US, according to Huang.

Rent accounted for 16.2 per cent, about half the US weighting at 32 per cent, while transport was 10.1 per cent in China, lower than 15.1 per cent in the US, he said.

In addition, the US economy relies heavily on imports of consumer products, whereas China's massive industrial capability means it has more room to deal with the price hikes for global commodities.

PPI and CPI used to have a strong correlation - consumer prices would follow suit if prices for production materials rose or fell. In China's case, however, the correlation has been weakening in recent years because of hog and grain cycles.

China's PPI fell 3.7 per cent in May 2020, but grew 13.6 per cent in October last year, while domestic consumer prices remained relatively stable.

"China's hog cycle makes food prices and industrial product prices divergent," China Securities Co said in a note in January.

"Other reasons include the fall of downstream demand and the rise of competition."

China's lower inflation, some argue, is partly a result of plunging domestic demand caused by Beijing's zero-Covid policy, which has been used to contain the highly contagious Omicron variant since March.

Retail sales continued to contract by 6.7 per cent in May, but the pace was slower than the steep fall of 11.1 per cent in April.

Pork prices have played a big role in consumer inflation cycles, with an estimated weight of 2.4 per cent in the CPI basket. Prices for pork, the staple meat on Chinese tables, fell 37 per cent from a year earlier in the first five months of 2022.

Meanwhile, as China is so central to global manufacturing - particularly after overseas capacity was hit by the pandemic in 2020 - rising production costs have been mostly absorbed by overseas buyers or producers.

Beijing is still on high alert for inflation, as it has been a factor in social instability in the past.

The central bank governor Yi Gang said in April the primary objective of China's monetary policy is to stabilise prices and employment.

Inflation also influences the ratio of Chinese household debt to gross domestic product (GDP), which jumped to 61.6 per cent last year from 17.9 per cent in 2008, a situation made worse by the pandemic.

On the ground, ordinary people's perception of consumer inflation is far larger than what is reflected in official figures. For instance, China's rising petrol price, influenced by a 68 per cent year on year rise in international crude prices, is forcing many families to switch to public transport or electric vehicles.

The grain price between January and May rose 2.2 per cent from a year earlier, while egg prices rose 6.8 per cent. Edible oil is up 3.7 per cent and vegetables up 8.7 per cent, government data showed.

Ensuring domestic supply of grain and energy is a key task for the government.

Some analysts worry China's CPI could rise with surging crude oil and grain prices. The World Bank estimated the prices for both Brent crude and wheat would increase by around 40 per cent this year from 2021.

Chinese inflation will be mainly affected by price rises stemming from the Ukraine war, lower external demand and a rebound in the yuan, China International Capital Corporation said in a note on Tuesday.

"Domestically, the upcycle of pork prices and the economic rebound will drive up consumer prices, but the median level may be still benign," the investment bank said, expecting a full-year rise of around 2.1 per cent, which is still within the government's tolerance range.

Translation

中國溫和的通脹數據與許多發達經濟體形成鮮明對比，在美國、歐盟和英國加息的同時，為中國提供了更多寬鬆貨幣的空間。

5 月份消費者價格指數 (CPI) 同比增長 2.1%，與 4 月份持平，但仍處於六個月的高位，這反映了原油、農產品和材料進口價格上漲。

相比之下，上個月美國和歐元區的通脹率分別達到了 8.6% 和 8.1% 的四年高位。 4月份在英國飆升至9%。

剔除波動較大的食品和能源價格的中國基准核心CPI上月同比上漲0.9%，與4月份持平。前五個月的總體通脹率增長了 1.5%，遠低於政府 3% 的全年最高水平。

衡量產品出廠價格的生產者價格指數 (PPI) 從 2021 年 10 月的峰值 13.5% 下降到 5 月份的 6.4%。

中國官員和學者將這種分歧歸因於西方的刺激措施，尤其是用於拯救受冠狀病毒大流行打擊的經濟體的史無前例的印鈔。

美國聯儲的資產負債表在過去兩年中翻了一番多，達到 8.9 萬億美元。而相對對於全面刺激措施持謹慎態度的北京則沒有過度放鬆。

但部分原因也歸結於商品和服務構成中國 CPI 籃子的份量。

中國更看重衣食，這符合中上收入國家的地位，而美國則更重視住房和交通，這兩者都容易受到全球能源價格和國內貨幣狀況的影響。

當局尚未披露中國 CPI 籃子的份量組成，該份量組成在 2021 年發生了變化。但是，中國證券股份有限公司分析師 Huang Wentao 估計，食品的權重增加到 18.4%，相對美國為 7.8%。

 Huang說，在服裝方面，中國的重量為 6.2%，而美國為 2.8%。

他說，租金佔 16.2%，約是美國的一半，佔 32%，而交通在中國占 10.1%，低於美國的 15.1%。

此外，美國經濟嚴重依賴消費品進口，而中國強大的工業能力意味著它有更大的空間應對全球大宗商品價格上漲。

PPI和CPI曾經有很強的相關性 - 生產資料價格上漲或下跌，消費者價格也會隨之上漲或下跌。然而，就中國而言，由於生豬週期和糧食週期，這種相關性近年來一直在減弱。

 2020年5月中國PPI下降3.7%，但去年10月增長13.6%，而國內消費價格保持相對穩定。

中國證券股份有限公司在 1 月份的一份報告中表示: “中國的生豬週期使食品價格和工業品價格出現分化” 。

“其他原因包括下游需求下降和競爭加劇。”

一些人認為，中國較低的通貨膨脹率部分是由於北京的零新冠政策導致國內需求下降，該政策自 3 月以來一直被用來遏制具有高度傳染性的 Omicron 變種。

5 月份零售額繼續收縮 6.7%，但速度低於 4 月份 11.1% 的急劇下降。

豬肉價格在消費者通脹週期中發揮了重要作用，估計在 CPI 籃子中的份量為 2.4%。作為中國餐桌上的主食肉價格, 2022 年前五個月，同比下降 37%。

與此同時，由於中國在全球製造業中如此舉足輕重 - 尤其是在 2020 年海外產能受到大流行打擊之後 - 不斷上升的生產成本主要被海外買家或生產商承受。

北京仍然對通貨膨脹保持高度警惕，因為它過去一直是社會不穩定的一個因素。

央行行長 Yi Gang 在4月份表示，中國貨幣政策的首要目標是穩定物價和就業。

通貨膨脹也影響了中國家庭債務與國內生產總值 (GDP) 的比率，從 2008 年的 17.9% 躍升至去年的 61.6%，這種情況因病毒大流行而變得更糟。

在現實，普通民眾對消費通脹的感覺遠大於官方數據所反映的。例如，受國際原油價格同比上漲 68% 的影響，中國不斷上漲的汽油價格正迫使許多家庭改用公共交通工具或電動汽車。

1-5月糧食價格同比上漲2.2%，雞蛋價格上漲6.8%。 政府數據顯示，食用油上漲 3.7%，蔬菜上漲 8.7%。

保障國內糧食和能源供應是政府的一項重點工作。

一些分析人士擔心，隨著原油和糧食價格的飆升，中國的 CPI 可能會上漲。 世界銀行估計，對比 2021 年，今年布倫特原油和小麥的價格都將上漲約 40%。

中國國際金融股份有限公司週二在一份報告中表示，中國通脹將主要受到烏克蘭戰爭引發的物價上漲、外部需求下降和人民幣反彈的影響。

該公司表示: “從國內看，豬肉價格的上行週期和經濟回暖將推高消費價格，但中位水平可能仍是温和的” ，並預計全年漲幅在2.1%左右，仍在 政府的容忍範圍。

So, China's mild inflation figures are in marked contrast to many advanced economies, giving the country space for more monetary loosening while the United States, the European Union and Britain hike rates. It is also interesting to note that the weighting of goods and services that make up China's CPI basket and US basket are very different. Also, the US economy relies heavily on imports of consumer products, whereas China's massive industrial capability means it has more room to deal with the price increases in global commodities.

Translation note:

1. Headline inflation is the raw inflation figure reported through the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI calculates the cost to purchase based on a fixed basket of goods to determine how much inflation is occurring in the broad economy. Another way to calculate is to base on the core inflation. It removes the CPI components that can have large amounts of volatility from month to month, which can cause unwanted distortion to the headline inflation.