Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:
How China became
ground zero for the auto chip shortage (1/2)
Mon, July 18, 2022
at 4:02 PM
By Sarah Wu, Jane
Lanhee Lee and Kevin Krolicki
TAIPEI/SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - From his small office
in Singapore, Kelvin Pang is ready to wager a $23 million payday that the worst
of the chip shortage is not over for automakers – at least in China.
Pang has bought 62,000 microcontrollers, chips that help control a range of functions from car engines and transmissions to electric vehicle power systems and charging, which cost the original buyer $23.80 each in Germany.
He's now looking to sell them to auto suppliers in the Chinese tech hub of Shenzhen for $375 apiece. He says he has turned down offers for $100 each, or $6.2 million for the whole bundle, which is small enough to fit in the back seat of a car and is packed for now in a warehouse in Hong Kong.
"The automakers have to eat," Pang told Reuters. "We can afford to wait."
The 58-year-old, who declined to say what he himself had paid for the microcontrollers (MCUs), makes a living trading excess electronics inventory that would otherwise be scrapped, connecting buyers in China with sellers abroad.
Automotive chip order times remain long around the world, but brokers like Pang and thousands like him are focusing on China, which has become ground zero for a crunch that the rest of the industry is gradually moving beyond.
Globally, new orders are backed up by an average of about a year, according to a Reuters survey of 100 automotive chips produced by the five leading manufacturers.
To counter the supply squeeze, global automakers like General Motors Co, Ford Motor Co and Nissan Motor Co have moved to secure better access through a playbook that has included negotiating directly with chipmakers, paying more per part and accepting more inventory.
Despite being the world's largest producer of cars, and leader in electric vehicles (EVs), China relies almost entirely on chips imported from Europe, the United States and Taiwan. Supply strains have been compounded by a zero-COVID lockdown in auto hub Shanghai that ended last month.
As a result, the shortage is more acute than elsewhere and threatens to curb the nation's EV momentum, according to CATARC, the China Automotive Technology and Research Center. A fledgling domestic chipmaking industry is unlikely to be in a position to cope with demand within the next two to three years, it says.
Pang, for his part, sees China's shortage continuing through 2023 and deems it dangerous to hold inventory after that. The one risk to that view, he says: a sharper economic slowdown that could depress demand earlier.
FORECASTS 'HARDLY POSSIBLE'
Computer chips, or semiconductors, are used in the thousands in every conventional and electric vehicle. They help control everything from deploying airbags and automating emergency braking to entertainment systems and navigation.
The Reuters survey conducted in June took a sample of chips, produced by Infineon, Texas Instruments, NXP, STMicroelectronics and Renesas, which perform a diverse range of functions in cars.
New orders via distributors are on hold for an average lead time of 49 weeks – deep into 2023, according to the analysis, which provides a snapshot of the global shortage though not a regional breakdown. Lead times range from 6 to 198 weeks.
German chipmaker Infineon told Reuters it is "rigorously investing and expanding manufacturing capacities worldwide" but said shortages may last until 2023 for chips outsourced to foundries.
"Since the geopolitical and macroeconomic situation has deteriorated in recent months, reliable assessments regarding the end of the present shortages are hardly possible right now," Infineon said in a statement.
Taiwan chipmaker United Microelectronics Corp told Reuters it has been able to reallocate some capacity to auto chips due to weaker demand in other segments. "On the whole, it is still challenging for us to meet the aggregate demand from customers," the company said.
TrendForce analyst Galen Tseng told Reuters that if auto suppliers needed 100 PMIC chips - which regulate voltage from the battery to more than 100 applications in an average car - they were currently only getting around 80.
(to be continued)
Translation
台北/上海/新加坡（路透社）- 在他位於新加坡的小辦公室裡，Kelvin Pang 準備押注收取 2,300 萬美元的日子，打賭汽車製造商的芯片短缺最嚴重的時期還沒有結束 - 至少在中國會是這樣。
Pang 已經購買了 62,000 個微控制器，這些芯片有助於控制從汽車發動機和變速器到電動汽車動力系統和充電的一系列功能，在德國，原買家每件的成本為 23.80 美元。
他現在希望以每件 375 美元的價格將它們賣給中國科技中心深圳的汽車供應商。他說，他拒絕了每件 100 美元或整套 620 萬美元的報價，這整套細小到可以放在汽車後座，目前在香港的一個倉庫裡打包。
Pang告訴路透社: “汽車製造商必須吃飯”; “我們等得起。”
這位拒絕透露他自己以什麽支付微控制器 (MCU) 的費用的58 歲的人仕，是以交易多餘的電子產品庫存為生，否則這些電子產品將被報廢，他將中國的買家與國外的賣家聯繫起來。
他說，過去兩年全球芯片短缺 - 由流行病供應混亂和需求旺盛造成 - 已經將原本大批量、低利潤的交易變成了一種可能帶來財富的交易。
全球汽車芯片的訂單仍然要很長時間去滿足，但像Pang這樣的經紀人和成千上萬像他一樣的經紀人正專注於中國，中國已經成為緊縮活動的起點而其他公司則已漸經歷過了。
根據路透社對五家頭號生產100 種汽車芯片的製造商的調查，在全球範圍內，新訂單平均支持大約一年。
為了應對供應緊張，通用汽車公司、福特汽車公司和日產汽車公司等全球汽車製造商已採取行動，通過直接與芯片製造商談判、為每個零件支付更多費用和接受更多庫存等方式來確保更好的入貨供應。
不過，根據由20 多名由汽車製造商、供應商和經紀人到中國政府下屬汽車研究機構 CATARC 的專家採訪，中國的前景更加黯淡。
儘管中國是世界上最大的汽車生產國和電動汽車 (EV) 的領導者，但中國幾乎完全依賴從歐洲、美國和台灣進口的芯片。在上個月結束的上海汽車中心的零新冠疫情封鎖, 加劇了供應的壓力。
據中國汽車技術研究中心 CATARC 稱，因此，短缺比其他地方更為嚴重，並有可能抑制國家的電動汽車發展勢頭。它表示，一個新興的國內芯片製造行業不太可能在未來兩到三年內可應對需求。
就Pang先生而言，他認為中國的短缺將持續到 2023 年，並認為在那之後持有庫存是危險的。他說，這種觀點的一個風險是：更凌厲的經濟放緩可能會更早地減缓需求。
預測 “幾乎不可能”
每輛傳統汽車和電動汽車都使用了數千種電腦芯片或半導體。它們幫助控制從部署安全氣囊和自動緊急制動到娛樂系統和導航的一切。
路透社在 6 月進行的調查以 Infineon、德州儀器、NXP、STMicroelectronics和 Renesas生產的芯片為樣本，這些芯片在汽車中具有多種功能。
根據分析，來自分銷商的新訂單平均延遲 49 週 - 直到 2023 年，它提供了全球短缺的快照，但沒有區域細分。交貨時間從 6 周到 198 週不等。
德國芯片製造商 Infineon 告訴路透社，它正在“在全球範圍內大力投資和擴大製造能力”，但表示外包給代工廠的芯片短缺可能會持續到 2023 年。
Infineon 在一份聲明中表示： “由於近幾個月地緣政治和宏觀經濟形勢惡化，目前幾乎不可能對目前短缺的結束做出可靠的評估。”
台灣芯片製造商聯合微電子公司告訴路透社，由於其他領域的需求疲軟，它已經能夠將部分產能重新分配給汽車芯片。該公司表示： “總體而言，去滿足客戶的總體需求對我們來說仍然具有挑戰性。”
TrendForce 分析師 Galen Tseng 告訴路透社，如果汽車供應商需要 100 個 PMIC 芯片 - 這些芯片能將電池電壓調節到普通汽車中的 100 多個應用程序 - 他們目前只能得到大約 80 個。
（未完待續）
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