中國如何成為引發汽車芯片短缺的原點 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

How China became ground zero for the auto chip shortage (2/2)

Mon, July 18, 2022 at 4:02 PM

By Sarah Wu, Jane Lanhee Lee and Kevin Krolicki

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URGENTLY SEEKING CHIPS

The tight supply conditions in China contrast with the improved supply outlook for global automakers. Volkswagen, for example, said in late June it expected chip shortages to ease in the second half of the year.

The chairman of Chinese EV maker Nio, William Li, said last month it was hard to predict which chips would be in short supply. Nio regularly updates its "risky chip list" to avoid shortages of any of the more than 1,000 chips needed to run production.

In late May, Chinese EV maker Xpeng Motors pleaded for chips with an online video featuring a Pokemon toy that had also sold out in China. The bobbing duck-like character waves two signs: "urgently seeking" and "chips."

"As the car supply chain gradually recovers, this video captures our supply-chain team's current condition," Xpeng CEO He Xiaopeng posted on Weibo, saying his company was struggling to secure "cheap chips" needed to build cars.

ALL ROADS LEAD TO SHENZHEN

The scramble for workarounds has led automakers and suppliers to China's main chip trading hub of Shenzhen and the "gray market", brokered supplies legally sold but not authorized by the original manufacturer, according to two people familiar with the trade at a Chinese EV maker and an auto supplier.

The gray market carries risks because chips are sometimes recycled, improperly labeled, or stored in conditions that leave them damaged.

"Brokers are very dangerous," said Masatsune Yamaji, research director at Gartner, adding that their prices were 10 to 20 times higher. "But in the current situation, many chip buyers need to depend on the brokers because the authorized supply chain cannot support the customers, especially the small customers in automotive or industrial electronics."

Pang said many Shenzhen brokers were newcomers drawn by the spike in prices but unfamiliar with the technology they were buying and selling. "They only know the part number. I ask them: Do you know what this does in the car? They have no idea."

While the volume held by brokers is hard to quantify, analysts say it is far from enough to meet demand.

"It's not like all the chips are somewhere hidden and you just need to bring them to the market," said Ondrej Burkacky, senior partner at McKinsey.

When supply normalizes, there may be an asset bubble in the inventories of unsold chips sitting in Shenzhen, analysts and brokers cautioned.

"We can't hold on for too long, but the automakers can't hold on either," Pang said.

CHINESE SELF-SUFFICIENCY

China, where advanced chip design and manufacturing still lag overseas rivals, is investing to decrease its reliance on foreign chips. But that will not be easy, especially given the stringent requirements for auto-grade chips.

MCUs make up about 30% of the total chip costs in a car, but they are also the hardest category for China to achieve self-sufficiency in, said Li Xudong, senior manager at CATARC, adding that domestic players had only entered the lower end of the market with chips used in air conditioning and seating controls.

"I don't think the problem can be solved in two to three years," CATARC chief engineer Huang Yonghe said in May. "We are relying on other countries, with 95% of the wafers imported."

Chinese EV maker BYD, which has started to design and manufacture IGBT transistor chips, is emerging as a domestic alternative, CATARC's Li said.

"For a long time, China has seen its inability to be totally independent on chip production as a major security weakness," said Victor Shih, professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego.

With time, China could build a strong domestic industry as it did when it identified battery production as a national priority, Shih added.

"It led to a lot of waste, a lot of failures, but then it also led to two or three giants that now dominate the global market."

(Reporting by Sarah Wu, Zhang Yan, Kevin Krolicki, Jane Lanhee Lee, Tim Kelly, Chen Lin; Additional reporting by Norihiko Shirouzu in Beijing; Editing by Pravin Char)

Translation

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急需得到芯片

中國供應緊張的狀況與全球汽車製造商的供應前景改善形成鮮明對比。例如，Volkswagen在 6 月底表示，預計芯片短缺將在下半年緩解。

中國電動汽車製造商Nio汽車的董事長 William Li上個月表示，很難預測哪些芯片會供不應求。 Nio 會定期更新其 “風險芯片清單” ，以避免生產所需的 1,000 多個芯片中的任何一個出現短缺。

5 月下旬，中國電動汽車製造商小鵬汽車通過一段在線視頻請求芯片，該視頻展示了一款在中國也已售罄的Pokemon玩具。像鴨子般跳動的角色揮舞著兩個標誌： “急求” 和“芯片”。

小鵬汽車首席执行官何小鵬在微博上發帖稱， “隨著汽車供應鏈逐漸恢復，這段視頻捕捉到了我們供應鏈團隊的現狀”; 他的公司正在努力爭取製造汽車所需的 “廉價芯片”。

條條大路通深圳

據熟悉一家中國電動汽車製造商貿易的兩位知情人士透露，爭奪變通辦法已導致汽車製造商和供應商湧向中國主要的芯片交易中心深圳及 “灰色市場” ，即以合法中介銷售但未經原製造商授權的供應。

灰色市場存在風險，因為芯片有時會曾被用過、會標記不當, 或曾在有損壞性的情况下儲存。

Gartner 研究總監 Masatsune Yamaji 說“經紀人非常危險” ; 並補充說他們的價格高出 10 到 20 倍。 “但在目前的情況下，許多芯片買家需要依賴經紀人，因為授權供應鏈無法支援客戶，尤其是汽車或工業電子領域的小客戶。”

Pang說，許多深圳經紀人是被價格飆升吸引的新人，但不熟悉他們買賣的技術。 “他們只知道零件號。我問他們：你知道這東西在車裡有什麼作用嗎？他們不懂。”

雖然經紀人持有的數量難以量化，但分析師表示，這遠遠不足以滿足需求。

McKinsey高級合夥人 Ondrej Burkacky 表示： “並不是所有的芯片都隱藏在某個地方，你只需要將它們帶到市場就可以。”

分析師和經紀人警告說，當供應正常化時，深圳的未售出芯片庫存可能會出現資產泡沫。

Pang說: “我們不能企硬太久，但汽車製造商也不能堅持太長。”

中國自給自足

先進芯片設計和製造仍落後於海外競爭對手的中國正,在進行投資以減少對外國芯片的依賴。但這並不容易，尤其是考慮到汽車級芯片的嚴格要求。

CATARC 高級經理 Li Xudong 表示，MCU 佔汽車芯片總成本的 30% 左右，但也是中國最難實現自給自足的類别, 並補充說，國內廠商只進入了用於控制空調和座椅的芯片的低端市場。

CATARC 總工程師 Huang Yonghe在 5 月說: “我不認為這個問題可以在兩到三年內得到解決”; “我們依賴其他國家，95% 的半導體晶體切片都是進口的。”

CATARC姓李的說，中國電動汽車製造商比亞迪已經開始設計和製造 IGBT 晶體管芯片作成為國內替代品。

加州大學聖地亞哥分校政治學教授 Victor Shih 表示： “長期以來，中國視無法完全獨立芯片生產為主要的安全弱點。”

Shih 補充說，隨著時間的推移，中國可以建立一個強大的國內產業，就像它將電池生產確定為國家優先事項時所做的那樣。

“它導致了很多浪費，很多失敗，但也導致了現在主導全球市場的兩三個巨頭。”

So, despite being the world's largest producer of cars, China relies almost entirely on chips imported from Europe, the United States and Taiwan. Supply strains have been compounded by a zero-COVID lockdown in auto hub Shanghai. As a result, a shortage is more acute than elsewhere according to CATARC. It seems that domestic chipmaking industry in China is unlikely to be in a position to cope with demands within the next two to three years.