Central bank outlook: Russian economy - negative growth of up to 10% this year

Recently CNN.co.jp reported the following:

ロシア経済、今年は最大１０％のマイナス成長　中銀見通し

2022.05.01 Sun posted at 16:00 JST

  （ＣＮＮ） ロシア中央銀行は５月１日までに、今年の同国経済は８～１０％のマイナス成長になるとの最新の見通しを示した。

国内の経済活動は今年３月、ウクライナ侵攻や国際社会がロシアに対して発動した制裁を受け、後退し始めたと指摘。声明で消費者の購買意欲の減退や企業活動の縮小、輸出入での落ち込みがあったと報告した。

ロシアの企業活動は現在、生産面などで相当な難局に遭遇していると説明。国内経済が直面する外部環境は厳しい局面が続き、経済活動に相当な規模で制約を与えていると分析した。

世界銀行は先月、ロシアの国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）は今年、１１．２％のマイナス成長を予測。国際通貨基金（ＩＭＦ）は先々週、約８．５％のマイナス成長を予想していた。

ロシア中央銀行は、国内経済は２０２３年末までに回復基調を見せないともし、「２３年の国内経済は構造改革の局面に遭遇しながらも段階的な成長軌道に乗るだろう」とも期待した。

来年の第４四半期（１０～１２月期）の生産力は前年同期比で４．０～５．５％増とし、２３年のＧＤＰの成長率はマイナス３．０％から０．０％の間と占った。

ロシア中央銀行は最近、政策金利を１７％から１４％に引き下げると発表。消費者の低調な購買活動と自国通貨ルーブルの価値の回復は国内のインフレ率を若干押し下げたとも説明していた。

ただ、物価上昇は今後も高止まりになるとみられ、中央銀行は今年のインフレ率は１８～２３％増とし、来年は５～７％増と見込んだ。

Translation

  (CNN) On May 1, the Central Bank of Russia announced that the latest outlook for the country's economic would be a negative growth of 8-10% this year.

It was pointed out that domestic economic activity began to recede in March this year due to the invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia by the international community. In a statement, it reported a decline in purchasing motivation in consumers, a reduction in corporate activities, and a drop in imports and exports.

It explained that Russian corporate activities were currently facing considerable difficulties in terms of production etc. It was analyzed that the external environment the domestic economy facing continued to be severe and imposed considerable restrictions on economic activities.

The World Bank last month predicted a negative growth of 11.2% in Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) this year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the week before last expected a negative growth of about 8.5%.

The Central Bank of Russia said that the domestic economy would not show a recovery trend by the end of 2023, and expected that "the domestic economy in 2023 will be on a gradual growth trajectory while encountering a phase of structural reform."

Production capacity in the fourth quarter (October-December) of next year would increase by 4.0-5.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate of GDP in 2023 would be from minus 3.0% to 0.0%.

The Central Bank of Russia recently announced that it could reduce the policy rate from 17% to 14%. It also explained that sluggish consumer buying activity together with a recovery in the value of home currency ruble had pushed down domestic inflation slightly.

However, inflation was expected to remain high in the future, and the central bank expected inflation to rise 18-23% this year and 5-7% next year.

              So, the Central Bank of Russia has announced that the latest outlook for the country's economic grow would be a negative 8-10% this year.  Meanwhile the World Bank predicts a negative growth of 11.2% in Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) this year. I am wondering how these would affect the war in Ukraine as far as Putin is concerned.