國際貨幣基金組織稱中國的資金外流表明與美國的分歧正在加深

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

IMF Says China’s Outflows Show Deepening Divergence with U.S.

Enda Curran

Tue, April 19, 2022, 7:51 PM

(Bloomberg) -- Investor outflows from China reflect a deepening divergence in monetary policy between the world’s two biggest economies.

The Federal Reserve has signaled aggressive rate hikes while the People’s Bank of China has eased policy, and that divide is eroding the yield differential between both economies prompting investors to look elsewhere, according to Helge Berger, head of the International Monetary Fund’s China mission.

China’s benchmark sovereign 10-year notes now offer no yield advantage over comparable U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 2010.

“It is the laws of international macroeconomics at work,” Berger said in an interview. “We are seeing a significant change in the relative interest rate position of China, which is highly correlated with slowing growth, while we have the opposite in key advanced economies, especially the U.S.”

Outflows from China’s stocks, bonds and mutual funds accelerated after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. Global funds sold more than $7 billion worth of mainland-listed stocks via exchange links with Hong Kong in March and sold $14 billion in Chinese government debt over the past two months.

China’s economy slowing under the weight of rolling lockdowns to curb the spread of Covid-19 has prompted a wave of downgrades to China’s growth forecasts. The IMF tips China’s economy to grow 4.4%, down from a prior 4.8% estimate and compared with the government’s official target of about 5.5%.

That fading outlook and diminshed yield differential are weighing on the yuan, which fell to its weakest level in six months. Any signs of a slowdown in China’s export boom would also weigh on global investors.

Still, the pace of outflows appears to be contained, at least for now.

“What we are seeing is really small compared to the massive inflows we’ve seen over the past two years,” Berger said. “Both of these central banks are reacting to changing domestic conditions.”

Translation

（彭博社）- 投資者從中國流出，反映出世界兩大經濟體之間貨幣政策的分歧正在加深。

國際貨幣基金組織中國代表團負責人Helge Berger表示，美聯儲已發出大幅加息的信號，而中國人民銀行則放寬了政策，這種分歧正在縮小兩國經濟體之間的收益率差異，促使投資者將目光投向別處。

中國的基​​準主權 10 年期國債現在首次沒有提供相自2010年以來,相對於美國國債的收益率優勢。

Berger在接受採訪時說:“這是國際宏觀經濟學的規律在起作用”;  “我們看到相對的中國利率狀況發生了顯著變化，這與增長放緩高度相關，相對主要發達經濟體，尤其美國是相反。”

俄羅斯 2 月入侵烏克蘭後，中國股票、債券和共同基金的資金外流加速。全球基金在 3 月通過與香港的交易所聯繫出售了價值超過 70 億美元的內地上市股票，並在過去兩個月中出售了 140 億美元的中國政府債券。

在為遏制 Covid-19 蔓延而採取的循環封鎖措施的重壓下，中國經濟放緩，這引發了一波對中國增長預測的下調。國際貨幣基金組織預計中國經濟將增長 4.4%，低於之前的 4.8% 估計，而政府的官方目標約為 5.5%。

黯淡前景和收益率差縮小正在打壓人民幣，人民幣跌至六個月以來的最低水平。中國出口熱潮放緩的任何跡像也將令全球投資者受壓。

儘管如此，資金外流的速度似乎得到了控制，至少目前是這樣。

Berger說:“與我們在過去兩年看到的大量資金流入相比，我們所看到的真是很小” ; “這兩家央行都在對不斷變化的國內狀況做出對應。”

So, the US Federal Reserve has signaled aggressive rate hikes while the People’s Bank of China has eased policy, and that divide is eroding the yield differential between both economies prompting investors to look elsewhere outside China.