隨著碳排放價格飆升，將碳掩埋的成本接近臨界點 (2/2)

Recently Yahoo News on-line reported the following:

Cost to Bury Carbon Near Tipping Point as Emissions Price Soars (2 of 2)

Rachel Morison and Samuel Etienne

Bloomberg

Sat., August 14, 2021, 10:00 p.m.

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Britain has the most ambitious climate goals of the G-20 nations, targeting a 78% reduction in emissions by 2035. The nation has committed to helping fund two industrial hubs, where heavy industry and power generation can use carbon capture and storage by 2025, with another two by the end of the decade.

The aim is to scrub as much as 10 million tons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere every year. Details on how the funding will be allocated are due before December.

At today’s power prices, the U.K.’s largest planned project at Drax Group Plc’s biomass station in north England already would be profitable using carbon-capture technology, according to Credit Suisse.

“We need to be sure we could get those prices over a long time period, but we’re getting pretty close,” CEO Will Gardiner said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio.

Drax’s project will start in 2027, and by 2030 it will capture and store 8 million tons of carbon dioxide a year.

In 2019, the world emitted about 33 gigatons of carbon. Operational projects are capturing just a fraction of that, about 40 million tons, according to Wood Mackenzie.

There are 19 large-scale CCS facilities in operation today and another 32 in development, according to Credit Suisse. If these all come online, they could store 100 million tons – a slightly bigger fraction.

There’s also a chance the technology might not be as effective as promised. The world’s biggest project, at Chevron Corp.’s $54 billion liquefied natural gas plant in Australia, has fallen short of its target to capture 80% of emissions from the plant, burying just 30% over five years.

“The tech isn’t there yet for large-scale adoption, but our industry has to start changing how we operate,” said Andrew Gardner, chairman of Ineos Grangemouth Ltd., which is working with Royal Dutch Shell Plc on the Acorn project in Scotland that’s scheduled to start in 2027.

The system developed by Oslo-based Aker Carbon Capture ASA costs between 60 euros and 120 euros per ton, CEO Valborg Lundegaard said. That means CCS could be nearing a crossover point.

Prices in Europe’s carbon market, the world’s biggest until trading began last month in China, are set to rise as the EU tightens the screws on industry in order to cut pollution by at least 55% by 2030 from 1990 levels. But because of the upfront cost of the technology, there is no consensus on what price will prompt companies to stop releasing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

Carbon capture probably needs to be cost-competitive by the end of the decade to achieve the rate of deployment needed to help nations reach net zero, according to BNEF. It potentially could reduce industrial emissions by as much as 46% in 2050.

“It’s a question of when, not if, for CCS becoming economic and coming to the fore,” said Mhairidh Evans, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “The 2020s are about that market development.”

Translation

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在 G-20 國家中，英國擁有最雄心勃勃的氣候目標，其目標是到 2035 年將排放量減少 78%。該國已承諾為兩個工業中心提供資金，到 2025 年重工業和發電可以在那裡使用碳收集和儲存，到20年代末還有另外兩個。

目標是每年從大氣中清除多達 1000 萬噸的二氧化碳。有關如何分配資金的詳細信息予計在 12 月之前發表。

瑞士信貸表示，按照今天的電價，英國最大的計劃中, 位於英格蘭北部 Drax Group Plc 生物質電站的項目已經可以使用碳收集技術實現盈利。

首席執行官Will Gardiner在接受彭博電台採訪時說:“我們需要確保我們能夠在很長一段時間內都能獲得這些價格，而我們已經非常接近了”。

Drax 的項目將於 2027 年啟動，到 2030 年，它將每年收集和儲存 800 萬噸二氧化碳。

2019 年，全球排放了約 33 億噸碳。 Wood Mackenzie 表示，在營運中項目, 僅收集其中的一小部分，約為 4000 萬噸。

據瑞士信貸稱，目前有 19 座大型 CCS 設施正在營運，另有 32 座正在開發中。如果這些都一起營運，它們可以存儲 1 億噸 - 是一個較大的份額。

該技術也有可能不像承諾的那樣有效。雪佛龍公司 (Chevron Corp.) 耗資 540 億美元的澳大利亞液化天然氣工廠是世界上最大的項目，該項目未能實現該工廠收集其80% 的排放量的目標，它五年內僅埋藏了 30%。

Ineos Grangemouth Ltd. 董事長 Andrew Gardner 表示： “現時還沒有大規模採用這項技術，但我們的行業必須開始改變我們的運營方式” 。這家公司正在與Royal Dutch Shell Plc (荷蘭皇家殼公司) 在蘇格蘭合作開發一個予算將於 2027 年開始運作叫Acorn 的項目。

首席執行官 Valborg Lundegaard 表示，由總部位於奧斯陸的 Aker Carbon Capture ASA 開發的系統, 每噸成本在 60 至 120 歐元之間。這意味著 CCS 可能接近交接點。

隨著歐盟收緊對工業的控制，目標以2030 年將污染從 1990 年的水平減少至少 55%，歐洲碳市場的價格將上漲。該市場在上個月中國開始交易之前, 是全球最大的碳市場。但由於該技術需要計算預付成本，對於什麼價格可促使公司停止向大氣排放溫室氣體, 此時沒有達成共識。

BNEF 表示，到本世紀末，碳收集可能需要具有成本競爭力，才能達到幫助各國實現淨零排放所需的部署速度。到 2050 年，它有可能將工業排放量減低多達 46%。

Wood Mackenzie 的分析師 Mhairidh Evans 表示： “這是一個 CCS 何時(不是會否) 變得有經濟效益, 並脫穎而出的問題”; “2020 年代是關符它的市場發展” 。

              So, instead of depending on the trees and plants to absorb CO2, human is doing this. The market to capture carbon could reach $2 trillion if used to cut pollution from heavy industry. The cost to release carbon into the atmosphere could reach 100 euros as soon as by 2025. At that level, it’s more economical in long-term for some sectors to capture CO2 emissions rather than paying for permits to release them.