"The importance of a stable situation in Taiwan" - mentioned in the Japan’s Defense White Paper for the first time

Recently Nihon Keizai Shimbun Electronic Edition reported the following:

「台湾情勢の安定重要」　防衛白書に初明記

2021年7月13日 10:26

岸信夫防衛相は13日の閣議で2021年版の防衛白書を報告した。中国の台湾周辺での軍事活動を挙げ「台湾をめぐる情勢の安定はわが国の安全保障にとって重要だ」と初めて明記した。米中の競争激化が「インド太平洋地域の平和と安定に影響を与えうる」と警鐘を鳴らした。

防衛省は白書を毎年作成し、日本を取り巻く安全保障環境や自衛隊の体制などを公表してきた。21年版は初めて米中関係を分析する項目を設けた。

米中の対立が日本の安保に与える影響に重点を置いた。地域情勢の客観的な説明が中心の例年の白書とは異なる記述ぶりといえる。

米国については「機微技術や重要技術で中国に対する警戒感を強めている」と記した。中国も妥協しない姿勢を示し「戦略的競争が一層顕在化していく」と指摘した。

台湾については米中の競争の文脈で詳述した。米国が20年以降、政府高官を相次ぎ台湾に派遣した動きや、中国軍機による台湾側への進入を取り上げた。

「（中国の）台湾に対する野心が今後6年以内に明らかになる」とした米インド太平洋軍のデービッドソン前司令官の議会証言にも触れた。中国が経済成長を背景に軍事力を強化し、米中間の軍事バランスが変化したと明示した。

沖縄県・尖閣諸島周辺で領海侵入を繰り返す中国海警局の活動については、初めて「国際法違反」と断じた。外務省が4月に閣議で報告した外交青書も同様の表現を盛り込んだ。

中国の海警局を準軍事組織に位置づける海警法については、白書に「国際法との整合性の観点から問題がある規定が含まれる」と記載した。

対中抑止を念頭に、白書は「自由で開かれたインド太平洋」の維持に向けた各国との防衛協力の重要性を示した。交流を推進する国に米国、オーストラリア、インド、東南アジア諸国連合（ASEAN）、欧州諸国を挙げた。

日米同盟の項目に載せた経緯の表で、4月の日米首脳会談の結果として台湾海峡の安定の重要性や「両岸（中台）問題の平和的解決を促す」と確認したことを紹介した。

北朝鮮については「重大かつ差し迫った脅威」との前年の表現を引き継いだ。低空や変則軌道で飛ぶ弾道ミサイルの開発状況を示し「技術や運用能力を極めて速いスピードで向上させている」と解説した。

韓国の軍備増強についても触れた。既に日本の防衛費を上回るとしたうえで「将来の日韓の防衛予算を試算すると25年に差は1.5倍に広がる」と説明した。

気候変動問題を安保上の課題として初めて位置づけた。土地や資源の不足が争いを誘発し、国家の安定を揺るがす可能性があるとの見方を示した。

温暖化で海氷が減る北極海で軍事態勢を強化する動きなどについて「重大な関心を持って注視する必要がある」と提起した。

日本の防衛力強化をめぐっては宇宙やサイバーなど新たな領域について最新の状況も取り上げた。人工衛星や宇宙ごみの動きを監視する部隊の体制、多数の小型衛星を使ってミサイルを探知するシステム研究の現状も盛り込んだ。

サイバーは組織を改め、共同部隊をつくって防衛体制を強化する方針を掲げた。

Translation

Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi reported the 2021 Defense White Paper at a cabinet meeting on the 13th. He cited China's military operations around Taiwan and stated for the first time that "the stability of the situation surrounding Taiwan is important for Japan's security." He warned that the intensifying competition between the United States and China "may affect peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region".

The Ministry of Defense prepared a white paper every year to publicize the security environment surrounding Japan and the Self-Defense Forces system. For the first time, the 2021 edition had an item to analyze US-China relations.

The impact of the US-China conflict on Japan's security was emphasised. It could be said that the description used was different from those in usual white papers which focused on objective explanations of local conditions.

Regarding the United States, it was written that, " caution about China in sensitive technology and important technologies is becoming strong." China also showed an uncompromising stance and pointed out that "strategic competition will become more apparent."

Taiwan was described in detail in the context of competition between the United States and China. It covered the movement of the United States in sending high-ranking government officials to Taiwan one after another since 2020, and the Chinese military aircrafts intruded into Taiwan.

"(China's) ambitions for Taiwan will be revealed within the next six years," said a former US Indo-Pacific Commander Davidson in a parliamentary testimony. China had strengthened its military power against the backdrop of economic growth, and had made clear that the military balance between the United States and China had changed.

For the first time, the activities of the China Coast Guard, which repeatedly intruded into the territory around the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture, had been judged as a "violation of international law." Similar expressions had been included in the diplomatic bluebook reported at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs during a cabinet meeting in April.

Regarding China’s Maritime Police Law which positioned the China Coast Guard as a paramilitary organization, the White Paper stated that "there are provisions that are problematic from the perspective of consistency with the international law."

With deterrence against China in mind, the White Paper emphasized the importance of defense cooperation with other countries to maintain a "free and open Indo-Pacific." The targeted countries to promote exchanges included the United States, Australia, India, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and European countries.

In a history table that listed out the items of the Japan-US alliance, it introduced the confirmed understanding that, based on the Japan-US summit meeting in April, the stability of the Taiwan Strait was important and would "promote a peaceful solution to the cross-strait (China-Taiwan) problem".

Regarding North Korea, it continued to use the previous year's expression of "a serious and imminent threat." The Paper showed the development status of ballistic missiles that flew at low altitudes and irregular orbits, and explained that "the technology and operational capabilities are being improved at an extremely high speed."

South Korea's military buildup was also touched on. It was said that it had already exceed Japan's defense budget, and explained that "if we project the future defense budget of Japan and South Korea, the difference will increase 1.5 times in 2025."

For the first time, the issue of climate change was positioned as a security issue. It said that the lack of land and resources could lead to conflict and undermine the stability of the nation.

It mentioned that "it is necessary to pay close attention” to the movement in strengthen the military situation in the Arctic Ocean where sea ice is decreasing due to global warming.

It also took up the latest situation in new areas such as space and cyber regarding the strengthening of Japan's defense capabilities. It also included the structure of a unit that monitored the movement of artificial satellites and space debris, and the current situation of its system research that detected missiles using a large number of small satellites.

Cyber ​​organization would be changed, and would strengthen the defense system by setting up a policy to create a joint unit.

So, for the first time Japan openly states that the stability surrounding Taiwan is important for Japan's security, and considers that the intensifying competition between the United States and China may affect peace and stability in the region. It seems that Japan will be passively drawn into future China-US conflicts in the region, including confrontations over Taiwan.

Note: Sensitive technology (機微技術) refers to the technology that can be used for weapons and military purposes.