China GDP doubles by 2020, yellow light flashing as April-June touched lower limit of 6.2%

Recently the Nihon Keizai Shimbun electronic version reported the following:

中国GDP、20年倍増に黄信号　4～6月下限の6.2%

中国・台湾

2019/7/15 17:15日本経済新聞　電子版

China's quarterly growth rate (Source Nikkei)

【北京=原田逸策】中国の2019年4～6月期の実質成長率は前年同期比6.2%となった。20年の国内総生産（GDP）を10年比で倍増する目標の達成には19～20年に平均6.2%の成長が必要で、その「下限」に落ちて黄信号がともった。年後半の下押し圧力は高まりそうで、習近平（シー・ジンピン）指導部の対応が焦点になる。

4～6月期の成長率は1～3月期より0.2ポイント縮小し、リーマン・ショック直後の09年1～3月期（6.4%）を下回って四半期として統計を遡れる1992年以降で最低となった。長引く貿易戦争で輸出と投資が低迷した。年ベースでは天安門事件後で経済制裁を受けていた90年の3.9%以来の低水準となる。

中国経済は19年1～3月期に1年ぶりに成長率の縮小が止まったが、再び減速に転じた。4月1日から付加価値税にあたる増値税の税率を下げたため、税負担を抑えようと3月末までに生産し、4月以降に出荷する動きが広がった。3月の工業生産が高い伸びとなって成長をかさ上げした特殊要因は、4～6月期にはげ落ちた。

6.2%も「上げ底」の面がある。統計局によると1～6月の成長率のうち、輸出から輸入を差し引いた外需の貢献が1.3ポイントに達した。輸出は横ばいだったが、内需低迷で輸入は4%も減り、貿易黒字が拡大した。中国人旅行客の「爆買い」も陰り、サービス貿易の赤字も縮小した。外需の貢献は18年1～6月はマイナス0.7ポイントだったので「内需低迷」が2ポイントも成長を押し上げた。

輸出低迷は製造業の生産や投資に響く。上半期の工業生産は6%増で1～3月より0.5ポイント減速した。とくに輸出主体の外資企業の伸びは1%にとどまった。生産全体の勢いを示す発電量も3%増と力強さがない。自動車と携帯電話がいずれもマイナスで、米国が追加関税をかけたロボットの生産台数も10%減った。

投資も伸びていない。1～6月の固定資産投資の伸びは5.8%で1～3月より縮小した。みずほ総合研究所の三浦祐介主任研究員は「製造業の投資が3%増と引き続き振るわないほか、景気下支えのインフラ投資も減速しており（減税などの）政策効果が十分に出ていない」と話す。

消費も力強さがない。1～6月の小売売上高（社会消費品小売総額）は前年同期比8.4%増え、伸び率は1～3月から0.1ポイント拡大した。国家統計局の毛盛勇報道官は「消費の伸びは加速した」と胸を張ったが、幅広く数字を集めるとむしろ消費のもろさが浮かぶ。

▼…1～6月の自動車販売台数12%減▼1～6月の映画の興行収入3%減、観客数10%減▼主要小売業5千社の1～5月の売上高2%増――。小売売上高の伸びも「7月からの排ガス規制を前に車の在庫を売り切った」（毛氏）特殊要因が押し上げた面がある。

消費低迷の背景には雇用不安がある。1～6月の都市部の新規雇用は737万人で前年同期比2%減った。少子化で18～30歳の若者が毎年1千万人減っているのも重荷になっている。

中国共産党は12年の党大会で20年までのGDP倍増の長期目標を決めた。19～20年に平均6.2%の成長が必要だ。19年の政府の成長目標は「6～6.5%」だが、長江証券の伍戈首席エコノミストは最近のリポートで「最低ラインは6.2%前後と広く受け止められている」と指摘した。

1～6月の成長率は6.3%なのでまだ上回っているものの、野村国際の陸挺・中国チーフエコノミストは「下半期の経済の下押し圧力をみくびってはいけない」と警鐘を鳴らす。

とくに懸念されるのが不動産だ。1～6月の不動産投資は11%増と堅調だが、販売面積は2%減った。ここ数年、地方都市の不動産売買を押し上げた「棚改」と呼ぶ再開発事業の規模が19年は前年比で半減し、年後半は地方都市の不動産市場の足を引っ張りかねない。足元では住宅バブルの崩壊を懸念し、当局が再び不動産業界への融資を締めつけている。

習指導部は当面、3月に打ち出した2兆元（約32兆円）規模の大規模減税の効果を見極める構えだ。ある経済官庁幹部は「大規模な経済対策は打たないだろう」と話す。いったん落ち着いた債務問題が再燃しかねないからだ。貿易戦争の出口が見えないなか、どこまで景気が持ちこたえられるのか。その行方は世界経済の波乱要因にもなる。

Translation

China / Taiwan

2019/7/15 17:15 Nihon Keizai Shimbun electronic version

[Beijing = Harada Issei] China's real growth rate for the April-June period of 2019 was 6.2% compared with the same period of the previous year. To achieve a target of doubling GDP in 2020 over 2010 it would require an average growth of 6.2% in 2019-20, now it fell to its “lower limit” and a yellow light was on. Downward pressure in the latter half of the year was likely to increase, the response of Xi Jinping's leadership would be the focus.

The growth rate in the April-June period decreased by 0.2 points from the January-March period. It was the lowest since 1992, when statistics were traced back to the quarters that was below the 2009 January-March quarter (6.4%) that was seen immediately after the Lehman shock. Exports and investment were sluggish in the prolonged trade war. On a yearly basis, it was the lowest level since 1990, standing at 3.9% when it was subjected to economic sanctions after the Tienanmen incident.

China's economy growth in 2019 January to March stopped shrinking for the first time after a year, but it began to slow down again. Since the rate of VAT, a value-added tax, was lowered starting from April 1, production had been expanded up to the end of March due to reduced tax burdens, and also there had been a movement to ship since April. The special factors that boosted growth due to high industrial production in March fell off in the April-June period.

6.2% had an “overstatement” aspect. According to the Statistics Bureau, out of this growth rate from January to June, the contribution of external demand minus exports reached 1.3 points. Exports were flat, but imports fell 4% due to sluggish domestic demand, and the trade surplus expanded. The deficit in service trade had also shrunk due to the “explosive purchase” of Chinese tourists. In January-June 2018 the contribution of external demand was minus 0.7 points, so “stagnation in domestic demand” boosted growth by 2 points.

Sluggish export affected production and investment in the manufacturing industry. The first half year industrial production increased by 6%, down 0.5 points from January to March. In particular, the growth of export-oriented foreign companies was only just 1%. The amount of power generation, which indicated the momentum of the overall production, merely increased by 3% which was not strong. Both automobiles and mobile phones were in the negative, and the number of robots that the US had imposed additional tariffs also decreased by 10%.

Investment had not increased. Fixed asset investment growth from January to June was 5.8%, a decline compared to January to March. Yusuke Miura, Senior Researcher of Mizuho Research Institute said that “while manufacturing industry investment failed to continue to increase by 3%, infrastructure investment to support the economy also has been slowing down (such as tax cuts), and policy effects have not been fully demonstrated.”

Consumption was not strong. Retail sales from January to June (total retail sales of consumer goods) increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.1 points from January to March. While the National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Mao Shengyong felt proud in that “The growth of consumption has accelerated,” yet when collecting a wide range of figures, it had revealed the fragility of consumption.

▼ ... Decrease in vehicle sales by 12% from January to June ▼ Decrease in box office revenue by 3% from January to June, decrease of audiences by 10% ▼ Increase by 2% in sales in 5,000 major retailers from January to May ---. The increase in retail sales had also been boosted by a special factor of “to sold out car inventory before the emission regulations to start from July” (Mr. Mao).

Employment concerns were behind the sluggish consumption. New jobs in urban areas from January to June were 7.37 million, down 2% year-on-year. That the number of youths aged 18 to 30 was declining by 10 million every year due to declining birthrate had become a burden.

The Chinese Communist Party set a long-term goal of doubling GDP at 2020 during the 2012 party convention. An average growth of 6.2% would be required in 2019-20. The government's growth target for 2019 was “6 to 6.5%,” but the chief economist at Yangtze Securities pointed out that “the lowest line is widely accepted as at around 6.2%” in a recent report.

Although the growth rate from January to June was 6.3% which was still above the line, Nomura International's Lu Ting, the China chief economist warned that “the downward pulling pressure on the economy in the second half year must not belittled”.

Of particular concern was the real estate. Real estate investment from January to June was strong with an increase of 11%, but sales area decreased by 2%. In recent years, the scale of the redevelopment project the so called “Housing reform”, which was used to boost real estate buying and selling in local cities, was halved in 2019 when compared with the previous year. It could also pull the leg of the real estate market in local cities in the second half of the year. The authorities were tightening loans to the real estate industry again because they were concerned about the collapse of the housing bubble.

For the time being, Xi’s Guidance Department was ready to determine the effects of its large-scale tax cut of 2 trillion yuan (about 32 trillion yen) launched in March. An executive of an economic agency said, “We will not take major economic measures.” This was because temporally settled debt problem could be reignited. How far could the economy hold on without seeing an exit of the trade war? That outcome became a turbulent factor of the world economy.

          This report gives a very detailed account in showing how China is having a slowing down economy. Good job.